Approximate inference in Bayesian networks using binary probability trees

The present paper introduces a new kind of representation for the potentials in a Bayesian network: Binary Probability Trees. They enable the representation of context-specific independences in more detail than probability trees. This enhanced capability leads to more efficient inference algorithms for some types of Bayesian networks. This paper explains the procedure for building a binary probability tree from a given potential, which is similar to the one employed for building standard probability trees. It also offers a way of pruning a binary tree in order to reduce its size. This allows us to obtain exact or approximate results in inference depending on an input threshold. This paper also provides detailed algorithms for performing the basic operations on potentials (restriction, combination and marginalization) directly to binary trees. Finally, some experiments are described where binary trees are used with the variable elimination algorithm to compare the performance with that obtained for standard probability trees.     

Most probable explanations in Bayesian networks: Complexity and tractability

One of the key computational problems in Bayesian networks is computing the maximal posterior probability of a set of variables in the network, given an observation of the values of another set of variables. In its most simple form, this problem is known as the MPE-problem. In this paper, we give an overview of the computational complexity of many problem variants, including enumeration variants, parameterized problems, and approximation strategies to the MPE-problem with and without additional (neither observed nor explained) variables. Many of these complexity results appear elsewhere in the literature; other results have not been published yet. The paper aims to provide a fairly exhaustive overview of both the known and new results.     

Incomplete financial markets and contingent claim pricing in a dual expected utility theory framework

This paper investigates the price for contingent claims in a dual expected utility theory framework, the dual price, considering arbitrage-free financial markets. A pricing formula is obtained for contingent claims written on n underlying assets following a general diffusion process. The formula holds in both complete and incomplete markets as well as in constrained markets. An application is also considered assuming a geometric Brownian motion for the underlying assets and the Wang transform as the distortion function.