股本规模、涨跌幅限制与触限频率的实证研究

本文运用广义矩估计(GMM)方法,对沪深上市公司价格触限频率与股本规模之间的关系进行回归分析。结果表明:流通股本规模越小的公司,其价格触限频率更高,而中小企业板股票的价格触限频率高于主板股票近两个百分点。研究说明中小企业板的涨跌停幅度应大于主板幅度,以更好地体现价格限制制度的作用。     

中介的财务秘密

一场运动式的专项财务检查让中国式IPO利益链条“原形毕露”。我国现行IPO执行的是核准制,IPO利益链条主要包括保荐机构、会计师事务所、律师事务所、财经公关和评估机构等。     

基于CAR模型国内A股市场反应不足的实证分析

主要关注的主体异象为反应不足,在已有的HS模型基础上,对我国IPO改革背景下的证券市场投资策略进行了实证研究.实证过程中主要采用了市场调整模型计算累计超额收益率,并根据样本条件划分适当的形成期和检验期.在此基础上,以经典的"赢者组合"和"输者组合"方法对实证数据进行分析,最终发现A股市场中存在反应不足的金融异象.     

股权分置改革试点G股的超常收益实证研究

本文采用事件研究法就股权分置试点改革过程中G股股票是否存在超常收益进行了实证分析。实证分析表明股改试点公司股票在试点公司完成股改后复牌当天确实存在着显著的正的超常收益,其中第一批试点公司G股股票的平均超常收益率高于第二批试点公司G股股票的平均超常收益率,深交所试点公司G股股票的平均超常收益率略高于上交所试点公司G股股票的平均超常收益率,中小企业板试点公司G股股票的平均超常收益率高于主板试点公司G股股票的平均超常收益率,高对价试点公司G股股票的平均超常收益率高于低对价试点公司G股股票的平均超常收益率。     

不同参数下Galton板实验的探讨及仿真

介绍了 Galton板实验的实验现象和物理背景 ,建立了细致的概率模型对实验进行了分析 ,并基于模型对不同参数下的 Galton板实验进行了探讨 ,还利用 MATLAB编制了仿真软件 ,对结论进行了验证 .     

基于我国短期信贷需求函数的中小企业信贷研究

以短期信贷需求作为研究对象,构建出包含我国中小企业信贷需求因素的信贷需求函数,并基于可得的宏观经济数据,从宏观层面研究我国的短期信贷需求关系.通过对实证结果的分析,我们发现,在我们估计的短期信贷需求函数中,短期信贷需求和国内生产总值、短期贷款利率以及中小企业信贷需求有着长期的均衡关系,但是我国中小企业信贷需求的增长远大于短期信贷需求增长,并且短期信贷需求与国内生产总值、短期贷款利率以及中小企业信贷需求之间的协整关系对于调节短期信贷需求的作用不显著.这些结果反映出我国短期信贷市场的一定程度的刚性,而且我国的中小企业信贷需求也未能通过银行信贷的渠道得到有效的解决.结合这些实证结果,我们对如何利用货币政策实现帮助中小企业度过金融危机进行了讨论.     

融资融券提升券商中长期活力

在2009年A股市场价量齐升及IPO重启的背景之下 ,券商业绩高增长的2009年报如约而至。而融资融券的实施,更令券商未来活力“锦上添花”。     

解平行四边形薄板弯曲问题的样条有限条法

Y.K.Cheung等(1982)用样条有限条方法成功地求解了矩形板和壳的问题.本文将此法作少许的修正用于分析平行四边形板,这一修正只增加少许的计算量,但仍保持有限条法的良好性质(如带状性质等)本文还给出方法的误差估计和数值算例.     

基于高频数据的IPO首日量价关系研究

本文基于高频数据对IPO首日的量价关系进行了实证研究,采用了分组研究以及回归分析的方法。研究发现,IPO首日的价格变化(绝对值)以及价格变化都与归一化交易量有着正相关关系,且价格变化(绝对值)更加敏感。同时,本文还对时刻、板块、流通市值以及中签率与IPO首日的价格变化(绝对值)及价格变化的影响进行了研究,并给出了相应的解释。     

我国IPO市场的周期性行为研究:1994-2010

对IPO冷热周期内的时变波动特征首次建立区制转换GARCH模型加以有效描述,以及用计数数据分位数回归模型研究发行数量和发行到上市持续期的关系。通对1994年1月至2010年8月间我国A股IPO市场新股的实证研究得到若干新结论:上市首日收益率和发行到上市的持续期是发行数量的诱因,导致这三个描述IPO行为主要变量的周期行为之间存在相位差;发行到上市的持续期的降低对发行数量的增加有积极地促进作用;除了发行数量在淡季状态波动持续性较强外,其他变量在淡旺季的波动持续性均较弱;旺季时(调整后的)上市首日收益率、发行数量的波动方差比淡季时大,而发行到上市的持续期则相反;我国A股IPO发行市场的淡旺季周期的形成主要受到IPO发行政策、宏观经济环境、投资者情绪的影响控制。     

基于财富管理视角的IPO市值配售网上申购策略

网上申购新股是一种风险较低而收益可观的投资策略,若操作得当可带来持续稳定的正收益.A股IPO发行方式自20世纪90年代以来反复变化,2012年5月起基本稳定为限定发行市盈率、市值配售的方式.基于财富管理视角,首先分析影响网上申购收益的几个因子并推导出其计算公式,然后对2016年市场情况进行实证研究,接着制定出未来1~2年可行的操作策略,最后建议后续研究针对新股发行政策变化和证券市场走势变化适时调整相关策略.     

IPO estimation of heaviness of the distribution beyond regularly varying tails

Abstract

We introduce a completely novel method for estimation of the parameter which governs the tail behavior of the cumulative distribution function of the observed random variable. We call it Inverse Probabilities for p-Outside values (IPO) estimation method. We show that this approach is applicable for wider class of distributions than the one with regularly varying tails. We demonstrate that IPO method is a valuable competitor to regularly varying tails based estimation methods. Some of the properties of the estimators are derived. The results are illustrated by a convenient simulation study.     

风险投资联合投资对上市公司盈余管理的影响:基于我国创业板的实证研究

风险投资在中国的经济发展中处于越来越重要的位置,创业板355家上市公司中,近60%的公司有风险投资背景,近40%的公司有联合风投背景.本文首先以2009-2012年创业板355家上市公司为研究对象,实证研究了风险投资个数与盈余管理之间的关系,然后,以132家联合风投背景公司为研究对象,实证研究联合风投内部特征对IPO公司盈余管理的影响,试图探讨能够发挥最佳监督作用的联合投资方式.实证结果显示有风投背景公司的盈余管理程度高于无风投背景的公司,且联合风投个数越多,上市公司盈余管理程度越高.尽管如此,可以通过选择适当的联合投资方式降低联合投资的负面效应,比如:提高联合风投多样化程度、提高主导风投持股比例、选择高声誉主导风投等等.     

Optimizing venture capital investments in a jump diffusion model

We study two practical optimization problems in relation to venture capital investments and/or Research and Development (R&D) investments. In the first problem, given the amount of the initial investment and the cash flow structure at the initial public offering (IPO), the venture capitalist wants to maximize overall discounted cash flows after subtracting subsequent investments, which keep the invested company solvent. We describe this problem as a mixture of singular stochastic control and optimal stopping problems. The second problem is concerned with optimal dividend policy. Rather than selling the company at an IPO, the investor may want to harvest technological achievements in the form of dividend when it is appropriate. The optimal control policy in this problem is a mixture of singular and impulse controls. E. Bayraktar was supported in part by the National Science Foundation, under grant DMS-0604491.     

IPO市场条件下风险投资退出时机的抉择

本文利用博弈论和信息经济学的理论知识。通过建立一个两阶段基本模型，给出了风险企业的退出条件。由于风险投资家要重复地参与资本市场。又将两阶段模型推广到无限期重复博弈，通过建立声誉机制可解决不同类型风险企业的退出时机问题。对低质量的企业继续增加投资的目的不是为了建立声誉，而是为了增加收益。对年轻的风险投资家而言，要建立自己的声誉可通过使企业价格偏低来实现。     

Semi-Iterative Minimum Cross-Entropy Algorithms for Rare-Events,Counting, Combinatorial and Integer Programming

We present a new generic minimum cross-entropy method, called the semi-iterative MinxEnt, or simply SME, for rare-event probability estimation, counting, and approximation of the optimal solutions of a broad class of NP-hard linear integer and combinatorial optimization problems (COP’s). The main idea of our approach is to associate with each original problem an auxiliary single-constrained convex MinxEnt program of a special type, which has a closed-form solution. We prove that the optimal pdf obtained from the solution of such a specially designed MinxEnt program is a zero variance pdf, provided the “temperature” parameter is set to minus infinity. In addition we prove that the parametric pdf based on the product of marginals obtained from the optimal zero variance pdf coincides with the parametric pdf of the standard cross-entropy (CE) method. Thus, originally designed at the end of 1990s as a heuristics for estimation of rare-events and COP’s, CE has strong connection with MinxEnt, and thus, strong mathematical foundation. The crucial difference between the proposed SME method and the standard CE counterparts lies in their simulation-based versions: in the latter we always require to generate (via Monte Carlo) a sequence of tuples including the temperature parameter and the parameter vector in the optimal marginal pdf’s, while in the former we can fix in advance the temperature parameter (to be set to a large negative number) and then generate (via Monte Carlo) a sequence of parameter vectors of the optimal marginal pdf’s alone. In addition, in contrast to CE, neither the elite sample no the rarity parameter is needed in SME. As result, the proposed SME algorithm becomes simpler, faster and at least as accurate as the standard CE. Motivated by the SME method we introduce a new updating rule for the parameter vector in the parametric pdf of the CE program. We show that the CE algorithm based on the new updating rule, called the combined CE (CCE), is at least as fast and accurate as its standard CE and SME counterparts. We also found numerically that the variance minimization (VM)-based algorithms are the most robust ones. We, finally, demonstrate numerically that the proposed algorithms, and in particular the CCE one, allows accurate estimation of counting quantities up to the order of hundred of decision variables and hundreds of constraints. This research was supported by the Israel Science Foundation (grant No 191-565).     

The effects of top management team composition on SME export performance: an upper echelons perspective

Survival of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) increasingly depends on their ability to exploit opportunities in foreign markets. Given their limited resources, exporting is one of the most viable modes of entry into foreign markets for SMEs. The present study is an attempt to contribute to the research that identifies the factors associated with SME export performance. Specifically, the association between top management team demographic composition and SME export performance was examined in an emerging market context and drawing from upper echelons perspective. Focusing on such commonly examined upper echelons attributes as age, education level, and tenure, the present research assessed whether top management team composition distinguished between SMEs in terms of their export levels. Data were collected from 128 SMEs operating in Ankara and Bursa regions of Turkey. Results obtained by a hierarchical regression analysis indicated that SMEs with lower mean industry tenure and higher age separation diversity had higher levels of export performance.