Geomagnetic activity and diurnal variation of cosmic ray neutron intensity

A study of the geomagnetic relationship of the daily variation of Cosmic ray neutron intensity, corrected for barometric pressure variation, at Uppsala, Sulphur Mountain, Climax, Huancayo, Buenos Aires and Mawson has been undertaken. The neutron data of the year 1961 are divided into four groups depending upon the value of the daily geomagnetic planetary index, C _p . The results show that while there are differences in the diurnal amplitude for the first three C _p groups, the amplitude gets enhanced for the highly disturbed group. Substantial phase shifts to earlier hours are also observed. The increase of the amplitude in the last C _p group with respect to other groups shows a latitude dependence.     

热带气旋登陆概率的Logistic模拟

本研究采用1949--2008年近60年的热带气旋资料,对热带气旋源地分布与登陆概率进行了描述统计以及相关分析;并在此基础上建立Logistic模型,模拟热带气旋的登陆概率。结果显示:(1)西北太平洋热带气旋源地分布和登陆气旋的源地分布存在显著差异。0°-10°N纬度带登陆频数与生成频数比偏低,纬度带10°-15°N则两者具有一致性,而15°N以北登陆频数比偏高。经度的分布上135°E以西偏高,135°E以东偏低。(2)热带气旋登陆概率与源地存在显著相关关系。以西北太平洋热带气旋源地做5°×5°的经纬度分类,源地愈偏东登陆概率愈小,而TC源地纬度变化对其登陆概率的影响不如经度变化显著,但是随纬度偏北略为增加。(3)Logistic模型对影响和登陆我国的热带气旋拟合表明,经度带由西向东4个生成TC频数较多的典型海区,即南海中北部海面、菲律宾群岛以东和琉球群岛附近海面、马里亚纳群岛附近海面、马绍尔群岛附近海面的登陆概率逐渐减低。本文首次将非参数检验、Logistic概率回归模型等统计方法应用于热带气旋气候特征研究,提高了对西北太平洋热带气旋源地与其登陆关联性的统计规律性认识。     

Hamiltonian Structure and a Variational Principle for Grounded Abyssal Flow on a Sloping Bottom in a Mid‐Latitude β‐Plane

Observations, numerical simulations, and theoretical scaling arguments suggest that in mid‐latitudes, away from the high‐latitude source regions and the equator, the meridional transport of abyssal water masses along a continental slope correspond to geostrophic flows that are gravity or density driven and topographically steered. These dynamics are examined using a nonlinear reduced‐gravity geostrophic model that describes grounded abyssal meridional flow over sloping topography that crosses the planetary vorticity gradient. It is shown that this model possesses a noncanonical Hamiltonian formulation. General nonlinear steady solutions to the model can be obtained for arbitrary bottom topography. These solutions correspond to nonparallel shear flows that flow across the planetary vorticity gradient. If the in‐flow current along the poleward boundary is strictly equatorward, then no shock can form in the solution in the mid‐latitude domain. It is also shown that the steady solutions satisfy the first‐order necessary conditions for an extremal to a suitably constrained potential energy functional. Sufficient conditions for the definiteness of the second variation of the constrained energy functional are examined. The theory is illustrated with a nonlinear steady solution corresponding to an abyssal flow with upslope and down slope groundings in the height field.     

Displaying Variation in Large Datasets: Plotting a Visual Summary of Effect Sizes

Displaying the component-wise between-group differences high-dimensional datasets is problematic because widely used plots such as Bland–Altman and Volcano plots do not show what they are colloquially believed to show. Thus, it is difficult for the experimentalist to grasp why the between-group difference of one component is “significant” while that of another component is not. Here, we propose a type of “Effect Plot” that displays between-group differences in relation to respective underlying variability for every component of a high-dimensional dataset. We use synthetic data to show that such a plot captures the essence of what determines “significance” for between-group differences in each component, and provide guidance in the interpretation of the plot. Supplementary online materials contain the code and data for this article and include simple R functions to produce an effect plot from suitable datasets.     

Consumer price sensitivity in the retail industry: Latitude of acceptance with heterogeneous demand

Estimating the effect of price changes on demand is an essential task for retailers. This study proposes a methodology based on consumer utility for modeling the price thresholds phenomenon that allows for threshold asymmetry, incorporates consumer heterogeneity and uses weekly aggregated brand-level data. Unlike other studies based on consumer utility models, which generate results only for the price elasticity of market share, a methodology for estimating price elasticity of demand is also included. Data on fast-moving goods (detergents, toilet paper, soft drinks, meats, liquid juices and yogurts) supplied by a major retail chain are used to demonstrate the existence of price thresholds and their effects on price elasticity. In every case it was found that within the thresholds or latitude of acceptance, consumers are relatively less sensitive to price variations while beyond them a higher sensitivity was observed. In some cases a product brand was classified as inelastic within the latitude of acceptance and elastic outside of it.     

Properties of large-scale TIDs observed in Central China

This paper investigates the large scale travelling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs) using the observation data of an HF Doppler array located in Central China. The data observed in a high solar activity year (year 1989) are analyzed to obtain the main propagation parameters of LSTIDs such as period, horizontal phase velocity and propagating direction. Results are outlined as follows: Most of the LSTIDs propagate southward; others tend to propagate northward, mostly in summer; dispersion of most LSTIDs is matched with that of Lamb pseudomode, while others have the dispersion of long period gravity wave mode. The horizontal phase velocities of these two modes are about 220 and 450 m/s respectively. The analysis shows that LSTIDs are strongly pertinent to solar activity and space magnetic storms; thus the results presented here are significant for the research of ionospheric weather in mid-low latitude region.     

Properties of large-scale TIDs observed in central China

This paper investigates the large scale travelling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs) using the observation data of an HF Doppler array located in Central China. The data observed in a high solar activity year (year 1989) are analyzed to obtain the main propagation parameters of LSTIDs such as period, horizontal phase velocity and propagating direction. Results are outlined as follows: Most of the LSTIDs propagate southward; others tend to propagate northward, mostly in summer; dispersion of most LSTIDs is matched with that of Lamb pseudomode, while others have the dispersion of long period gravity wave mode. The horizontal phase velocities of these two modes are about 220 and 450 m/s respectively. The analysis shows that LSTIDs are strongly pertinent to solar activity and space magnetic storms; thus the results presented here are significant for the research of ionospheric weather in mid-low latitude region.

     

Hydromagnetic planetary-gravity waves in vertically sheared zonal flow and zonal magnetic field

Hydromagnetic planetary-gravity waves propagating in a basic state zonal flow and zonal magnetic field both of which are sheared in the vertical direction are studied. It is found that the waves possess four critical levels at each of which they exhibit the valve effect behaviour, an effect due to the variation of density with latitude. It is also shown that on crossing a critical level the waves are either attenuated or escalated by an exponential factor which depends on the shear in the flow and the latitudinal variation in density.

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Résumé On étudie les ondes hydromagnétiques planétaires de gravité se propageant dans un flux zonal á l'état fondamental et un champ magnétique zonal, tous deux étant cisaillés dans la direction verticale. On a trouvé que les ondes possédaient quatre niveaux critiques à chacun desquels elles montrent un comportement d'effet de valve, effet dû à la variation de la densité avec la latitude. On a montré aussi que, en traversant un niveau critique, les ondes sont ou bien atténuées ou bien amplifiées d'un facteur exponentiel qui dépend du cissaillement dans le flux et de la variation de la densité en latitude.

     

Geomagnetic responses in high latitudes during the storm of July 15-16, 2000

The ionospheric equivalent currents in the high latitudes and the auroral electrojet system during the geomagnetic storm on July 15-16, 2000 are analyzed by using geomagnetic data from IMAGE chain. The large-scale vortices of equivalent currents are observed in the storm. The vortices on the dusk side of ionosphere correspond to four-celled pattern of plasma convection associated with NBZ, region I and region II field-aligned currents. Only one vortex can be found on the dawn side of ionosphere after interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) turns southward. In the initial phase of the storm, the center of eastward electrojets tends to shift equatorward. It arrives at 58.62o latitude of corrected geomagnetic coordinates (CGM). The westward electrojets are strong in the main phase. The center of westward electrojets in this period moves equatorward and may be beyond the southernmost station (56.45°) of the chain.     

Output specification and performance measurement in fire services: An ordinal output variable approach

This paper investigates performance differences in fire services with an ordinal output variable. An output variable is constructed for fires in detached houses in Sweden. The ordered probit model is used in the estimation of a production function. Performance differences are found by using the “individual effects” method having panel data. However, here the dimensions are not time and cross-section, but instead cross-section and turn-outs for each fire service. The results show no performance differences between full-time and part-time firemen and indicate that “team spirit” is more important for performance than the actual number of firemen fighting a fire.     

A Newton basis for Kernel spaces

It is well known that representations of kernel-based approximants in terms of the standard basis of translated kernels are notoriously unstable. To come up with a more useful basis, we adopt the strategy known from Newton’s interpolation formula, using generalized divided differences and a recursively computable set of basis functions vanishing at increasingly many data points. The resulting basis turns out to be orthogonal in the Hilbert space in which the kernel is reproducing, and under certain assumptions it is complete and allows convergent expansions of functions into series of interpolants. Some numerical examples show that the Newton basis is much more stable than the standard basis of kernel translates.     

Internal gravity wave beams as invariant solutions of Boussinesq equations in geophysical fluid dynamics

It is shown that Lie group analysis of differential equations provides the exact solutions of two-dimensional stratified rotating Boussinesq equations which are a basic model in geophysical fluid dynamics. The exact solutions are obtained as group invariant solutions corresponding to the translation and dilation generators of the group of transformations admitted by the equations. The comparison with the previous analytic studies and experimental observations confirms that the anisotropic nature of the wave motion allows to associate these invariant solutions with uni-directional internal wave beams propagating through the medium. It is also shown that the direction of internal wave beam propagation is in the transverse direction to one of the invariants which corresponds to a linear combination of the translation symmetries. Furthermore, the amplitudes of a linear superposition of wave-like invariant solutions forming the internal gravity wave beams are arbitrary functions of that invariant. Analytic examples of the latitude-dependent invariant solutions associated with internal gravity wave beams that have different general profiles along the obtained invariant and propagating in the transverse direction are considered. The behavior of the invariant solutions near the critical latitude is illustrated.     

Spectrum of geomagnetic horizontal intensity in low latitudes in the range 12 to 60 days

Low latitude geomagnetic data over a length of 37 years is analysed using fast Fourier transform (FFT). The technique, besides being computationally efficient, permits analysis of long series, so essential for reducing noise level to a degree where weak signals can be detected with statistical reliability and has the added advantage of yielding high resolution power spectrum. In the present communication, spectral estimates are computed in the period range of 12 to 60 days and statistically significant spectral lines, particularly those in the 25–31 day range and those in the vicinity of 13·5 days are discussed.     

利用基因芯片技术筛选差异表达基因的方法研究

为了探讨高维基因芯片基因表达谱数据筛选差异表达基因的方法,分析比较t检验法、秩和检验法、BON法、SIDAK法及ALSU法5种算法的差异表达基因筛选效率;采用模拟实验对t检验法、ALSU法等5种算法进行比较,并使用第一类、第二类错误率、总体错误率、筛选差异表达基因数及其均方根误差等5种指标进行评价;t检验法、秩和检验法计算结果过于灵敏,筛选差异表达基因个数较多,会促使筛选差异表达基因中假阴性事件的发生,BON法、SIDAK法筛选结果过于保守,筛选的差异表达基因个数较少,假阳性事件发生率较为显著,ALSU法能较稳定的抑制第一、二类错误率的发生,同时ALSU法筛选结果受系统扰动误差影响较笺LSU方法能够稳定的、高效的筛选差异表达基因,在使用高纬基因表达谱数据筛选差异表达基因时应首选ALSU法.     

考虑β变化下的Rossby波

本文考虑了Rossby参数β随纬度的变化并引进了γ参数γ≡-dβ/dy=2Ωsin(ф)/a2.同时把β平面近似扩展为含γ参数的近似:f=f₀+β₀y-γ₀y2/2.这就更接近实际,特特是在较高纬度地区.本文着重研究了γ参数对Rossby波的作用.研究指出:γ参数在较高纬地区有较强的作用.它可以形成纯γ参数所产生的Rossby波,并给出了在一般情况下的包含β变化的Rossby波相速公式,它在γ₀=0时退化为著名的Rossby公式.研究还指出:考虑了β的变化,即便基本气流u是y的线性函数也可以出现不稳定,但γ参数通常对Rossby波起稳定的作用.而且,它影响Rossby波的经向尺度和等位相线的结构,但都减缓Rossby波的增长或衰减.     

Multiple Priors and Asset Pricing

The asset pricing implications of a statistical model consistent with multiple priors, or beliefs about return distributions, are developed. It is shown that quite generally equilibrium differences in mean returns across priors are to be explained in terms of perceived risk differences between these priors. Advances in filtering theory are employed on time series data to filter all the multiple state conditional components of risks and rewards. It is then observed that excess return differentials across priors are broadly consistent with required risk compensations under these priors, though the sharp hypothesis of zero intercept and unit slope is rejected. The filtered results also deliver numerous other interesting statistics. Here we focus on the construction of long horizon return distributions from data on daily returns using a Markov chain approach to incorporate stochasticity in elementary risk characterizations like volatility, skewness and kurtosis.      

Geomagnetic responses in high latitudes during the storm of july 15—16, 2000

The ionospheric equivalent currents in the high latitudes and the auroral electrojet system during the geomagnetic storm on July 15–16, 2000 are analyzed by using geomagnetic data from IMAGE chain. The large-scale vortices of equivalent currents are observed in the storm. The vortices on the dusk side of ionosphere correspond to four-celled pattern of plasma convection associated with NBZ, region I and region II field-aligned currents. Only one vortex can be found on the dawn side of ionosphere after interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) turns southward. In the initial phase of the storm, the center of eastward electrojets tends to shift equatorward. It arrives at 58.62° latitude of corrected geomagnetic coordinates (CGM). The westward electrojets are strong in the main phase. The center of westward electrojets in this period moves equatorward and may be beyond the southernmost station (56.45°) of the chain.

     

The measurement of tritium activity in natural waters

The concentrations of tritium have been determined in wet precipitations occurring over the Indian subcontinent during 1961–64, using a sensitive method for counting of tritium activity discussed in Part I* of this paper. The tritium concentrations varied significantly during the period of observation; highest concentrations were observed during 1963. An analysis of the data reported here, in conjunction with those available for concentrations of H³ and Sr⁹⁰ in rains at higher latitudes, reveals that these nuclides which were originally placed at high altitudes in the polar regions during late 1962, were deposited chiefly at 30°–90° latitudes during 1963 and 1964 respectively in relative proportions of 1 and 0·6. The data show that the largest gradients in their zonal deposition occur at about 35°–40° N latitude and that to a first approximation, their deposition per unit area in 1963 or 1964 was practically uniform, separately in the 30°–90° and 0°–30° latitude regions. This observation suggests the existence of two well-defined cells, which are internally well mixed: the meridional transport to low latitudes occurs as a result of interaction between these cells. The annual deposition rates of Sr⁹⁰ as observed during 1963 and 1964 suggest a mean time of 3 months for exchange of air between the two cells, in good agreement with the values deduced for mid-months of the year on the basis of analysis of bomb produced C¹⁴ data. The tritium and strontium data for the inland, coastal and island stations are analysed to evaluate the importance of (i) the re-evaporation of tritium from continents, and (ii) the molecular exchange of atmospheric tritium with oceanic water. Process (i) probably plays a significant role over the continents throughout the year; its effect, however, is experimentally visible only during June to September. The estimated concentration of H³ in evaporated water suggests that the precipitated water mixes very slowly with that in the soil; limits on the equivalent amount of exchangeable soil water are given. It is shown that the relative wet deposition of H³ and Sr⁹⁰ atisland andcoastal stations is similar to their estimated concentration ratio in upper level tropospheric air. Furthermore, the relative concentrations of H³ and Sr⁹⁰ at continental and occanic stations differ only to the extent expected due to reinjection of H³ over continents. Thus, if one takes into account the recycling of H³ at continental stations (which results in about a 50% higher apparent deposition on an annual basis), one is led to the conclusion that process (ii) is rather unimportant; an upper limit of 30% on the fraction of tritium removed over oceans by molecular exchange is deduced. The mean annual concentration of Sr⁹⁰ in wet precipitation is lower at oceanic stations compared to that at continental stations. This could be due to meteorological effects peculiar to oceanic areas,e.g., higher rainfall and quick recycling of evaporated water. Otherwise, one must postulate a significant removal of Sr⁹⁰ (and H³) by ocean spray and jet action.     

Calculating distances for dissimilar strings: The shortest path formulation revisited

Fast detection of string differences is a prerequisite for string clustering problems. An example of such a problem is the identification of duplicate information in the data cleansing stage of the data mining process. The relevant algorithms allow the application of large-scale clustering techniques in order to create clusters of similar strings. The vast majority of comparisons, in such cases, is between very dissimilar strings, therefore methods that perform better at detecting large differences are preferable. This paper presents approaches which comply with this requirement, based on reformulation of the underlying shortest path problem. It is believed that such methods can lead to a family of new algorithms. An upper bound algorithm is presented, as an example, which produces promising results.     

A characterization of concordance relations

The notion of concordance is central to many multiple criteria techniques relying on ordinal information, e.g. outranking methods. It leads to compare alternatives by pairs on the basis of a comparison of coalitions of attributes in terms of “importance”. This paper proposes a characterization of the binary relations that can be obtained using such comparisons within a general framework for conjoint measurement that allows for intransitive preferences. We show that such relations are mainly characterized by the very rough differentiation of preference differences that they induce on each attribute.