Simultaneous optimal estimates of fixed effects and variance components in the mixed model

For a general linear mixed model with two variance components, a set of simple conditions is obtained, under which, (i) the least squares estimate of the fixed effects and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) estimates of variance components are proved to be uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimates simultaneously; (ii) the exact confidence intervals of the fixed effects and uniformly optimal unbiased tests on variance components are given; (iii) the exact probability expression of ANOVA estimates of variance components taking negative value is obtained.     

平衡随机模型中方差分量的非负估计

众所周知, 对于平衡随机模型, 方差分量的方差分析估计为一致最小方差无偏估计. 本文基于方差分量的方差分析估计, 构造了一个二次不变估计类, 它包含了一些常用重要估计. 证明了该估计类在一定条件下在均方误差意义下一致优于方差分析估计, 并在此估计类基础上, 给出了方差分量的两种非负估计, 它们在均方误差意义下分别一致优于方差分析估计和限制极大似然估计, 且有显式解、容易计算.     

On some representations of sample variance

The usual formula for variance depending on rounding off the sample mean lacks precision, especially when computer programs are used for the calculation. The well-known simplification of the total sums of squares does not always give benefit. Since the variance of two observations is easily calculated without the use of a sample mean, and the variance of a sample of n observations is the average of the variances of observations based on n(n-1)/2 distinct subsets of units of size 2 from the sample, it is argued that this sense of pairing may result in precision. Some other forms of variance are presented which provide some insight into it. The contribution of a new observation of variance is highlighted, which is important in sequential sampling. Notions are illustrated with examples.     

非线性模型中方差和协方差分量的Bayes估计

本文采用Bayes方法从有逆gamma先验信息出发,得到了非张性模型中方差和协方差分量的估计,本文中的方差和协方差分量包含相关系数,而其他学者提出的线性模型中方差和协方差分量的Bayes估计只是本文的特殊情况.     

On the equivalence of quadratic optimization problems commonly used in portfolio theory

In the paper, we consider three quadratic optimization problems which are frequently applied in portfolio theory, i.e., the Markowitz mean–variance problem as well as the problems based on the mean–variance utility function and the quadratic utility. Conditions are derived under which the solutions of these three optimization procedures coincide and are lying on the efficient frontier, the set of mean–variance optimal portfolios. It is shown that the solutions of the Markowitz optimization problem and the quadratic utility problem are not always mean–variance efficient.     

Least-squares Spline Regression with Block-diagonal Variance Matrices

A numerical method of solution is presented for the least squaresfitting of experimental data by spline functions in the casewhere the data errors are correlated and for which the variancematrix is specified. The method is general in that it permits(a) splines of any order, (b) the knots of the spline to bearbitrary in number and position, and (c) variance matricesthat are block diagonal in form. Since limiting forms of (c)are diagonal and full variance matrices, the method can handle,as special cases, both conventional spline regression problemsand spline regression problems with general, unstructured variancematrices. An application to gamma spectrometry, in which theblocks of the variance matrix have special structure, is fullytreated.     

Optimal mean–variance investment and reinsurance problems for the risk model with common shock dependence

In this paper, we study the optimal investment–reinsurance problems in a risk model with two dependent classes of insurance business, where the two claim number processes are correlated through a common shock component. Under the criterion of mean–variance, two cases are considered: One is the optimal mean–variance problem with bankruptcy prohibition, i.e., the wealth process of the insurer is not allowed to be below zero at any time, which is solved by standard martingale approach, and the closed form solutions are derived; The other is the optimal mean–variance problem without bankruptcy prohibition, which is discussed by a very different method—stochastic linear–quadratic control theory, and the explicit expressions of the optimal results are obtained either. In the end, a numerical example is given to illustrate the results and compare the values in the two cases.     

A generalized separation for the variance contributions of input variables and their distribution parameters

For the structural system with both the uncertainties of input variables and their distribution parameters, this work investigates the generalized separation approach by transforming the original variable into the auxiliary variable with arbitrary distribution. Based on the variance based sensitivity analysis, the generalized sensitivity measures can be given, which are used to identify the influences of the auxiliary variables and distribution parameters simultaneously. For the different auxiliary variables, the variance contributions are proved to be identical, which illustrates the correctness of the generalized separation approach. Then the relationship of the variance contributions of original variables with those of the auxiliary variables and distribution parameters is investigated. Several examples are employed to demonstrate the rationality of the generalized separation approach.     

Asymptotic inference of unstable periodic ARCH processes

This paper studies asymptotic properties of the quasi maximum likelihood and weighted least squares estimates (QMLE and WLSE) of the conditional variance slope parameters of a strictly unstable ARCH model with periodically time varying coefficients (PARCH in short). The model is strictly unstable in the sense that its parameters lie outside the strict periodic stationarity domain and its boundary. Obtained from the regression form of the PARCH, the WLSE is a variant of the least squares method weighted by the square of the conditional variance evaluated at any fixed value in the parameter space. In calculating the QMLE and WLSE, the conditional variance intercepts are set to any arbitrary values not necessarily the true ones. The theoretical finding is that the QMLE and WLSE are consistent and asymptotically Gaussian with the same asymptotic variance irrespective of the fixed conditional variance intercepts and the weighting parameters. So because of its numerical complexity, the QMLE may be dropped in favor of the WLSE which enjoys closed form.     

Nonstationary denumerable state Markov decision processes – with average variance criterion

In this paper, we consider the nonstationary Markov decision processes (MDP, for short) with average variance criterion on a countable state space, finite action spaces and bounded one-step rewards. From the optimality equations which are provided in this paper, we translate the average variance criterion into a new average expected cost criterion. Then we prove that there exists a Markov policy, which is optimal in an original average expected reward criterion, that minimizies the average variance in the class of optimal policies for the original average expected reward criterion.     

Harnack inequalities and difference estimates for random walks with infinite range

Difference estimates and Harnack inequalities for mean zero, finite variance random walks with infinite range are considered. An example is given to show that such estimates and inequalities do not hold for all mean zero, finite variance random walks. Conditions are then given under which such results can be proved.Research supported by the National Science Foundation.     

On mean reward variance in semi-Markov processes

As an extension of the discrete-time case, this note investigates the variance of the total cumulative reward for the embedded Markov chain of semi-Markov processes. Under the assumption that the chain is aperiodic and contains a single class of recurrent states recursive formulae for the variance are obtained which show that the variance growth rate is asymptotically linear in time. Expressions are provided to compute this growth rate.     

基于Jeffreys验前的Bayes方差估计修正

分析了基于Jeffreys验前的经典Bayes方差估计以及考虑验前信息可信度情况下Bayes方差估计存在的问题,在一般情况下,其方差估计要大于验前子样和验后子样的方差,这显然是不合理的.这是采用Jeffreys验前和正态共轭分布假设时存在的固有问题.为了解决这一问题,提出了方差估计的修正公式,经过计算验证,其值在验前子样和验后子样方差之间,说明修正公式是合理的.     

混合模型中方差分量估计的容许性及非负估计

对含有两个方差分量的线性混合模型, 本文构造了方差分量的一个线性估计类, 它包含许多常见的方差分量估计. 在这个类中我们建立了容许性的必要条件, 据此得到了两个新的改进估计. 最后我们讨论了方差分量的非负估计, 得到了优于方差分析估计和Tatsuya估计的正估计.     

Jackknife variance estimators of the location estimator in the one-way random-effects model

In a one-way random-effects model, we frequently estimate the variance components by the analysis-of-variance method and then, assuming the estimated values are true values of the variance components, we estimate the population mean. The conventional variance estimator for the estimate of the mean has a bias. This bias can become severe in contaminated data. We can reduce the bias by using the delta method. However, it still suffers from a large bias. We develop a jackknife variance estimator which is robust with respect to data contamination.This research was supported by the Korea Science and Engineering Foundation.     

Stratification and sample size of data sources for agricultural mathematical programming models

A comparison is made between the variance of the estimator of the total of a variable obtained from both a simple and a stratified random sampling, in which the sample sizes of some strata are equal to the stratum population size.It is shown that in this case, the advantage of the stratified sample could depend on the sample size. The paper presents inequalities that determine, as a function of the sample size, when the variance of the estimator obtained with simple sampling is lower than the variance obtained with the stratified sampling. The results give insight in order to prevent overstratification.     

Bias and variance reduction techniques for bootstrap information criteria

We discuss the problem of constructing information criteria by applying the bootstrap methods. Various bias and variance reduction methods are presented for improving the bootstrap bias correction term in computing the bootstrap information criterion. The properties of these methods are investigated both in theoretical and numerical aspects, for which we use a statistical functional approach. It is shown that the bootstrap method automatically achieves the second-order bias correction if the bias of the first-order bias correction term is properly removed. We also show that the variance associated with bootstrapping can be considerably reduced for various model estimation procedures without any analytical argument. Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to investigate the performance of the bootstrap bias and variance reduction techniques.     

Subjective mean–variance preferences without expected utility

Classical derivations of mean–variance preferences have all relied on the expected utility hypothesis. Numerous experimental studies have revealed that the expected utility model is systematically violated in practice. Such findings and the simplicity of the mean–variance framework have led researchers and practitioners to employ the mean–variance model without expected utility. However, the theoretical foundations of these models are scant.I provide behavioral foundations for a class of mean–variance preferences. My set of axioms characterizes an individual who assigns subjective probability to events and judges each portfolio solely on the basis of the mean and variance of its implied distribution over returns but does not necessarily rank the portfolios according to expected utility. I clarify the differences across specifications of my model. In addition, this model is robust to the consideration of a wide body of observed behaviors under uncertainty, which are inconsistent with the classical mean–variance model.     

A universal approach to estimate the conditional variance in semimartingale limit theorems

The typical central limit theorems in high-frequency asymptotics for semimartingales are results on stable convergence to a mixed normal limit with an unknown conditional variance. Estimating this conditional variance usually is a hard task, in particular when the underlying process contains jumps. For this reason, several authors have recently discussed methods to automatically estimate the conditional variance, i.e. they build a consistent estimator from the original statistics, but computed at different time scales. Their methods work in several situations, but are essentially restricted to the case of continuous paths always. The aim of this work is to present a new method to consistently estimate the conditional variance which works regardless of whether the underlying process is continuous or has jumps. We will discuss the case of power variations in detail and give insight to the heuristics behind the approach.

     

Mean covariogram of cylinders and applications to Boolean random sets

This work focuses on the variance properties of isotropic Boolean random sets containing randomly-oriented cylinders with circular cross-section. Emphasis is put on cylinders with large aspect ratios, of the oblate and prolate types. A link is established between the power law decay of the covariance function and the variance of the estimates of the volume fraction of cylinders. The covariance and integral range of the Boolean mixtures are expressed in terms of the orientation-averaged covariogram of cylinders, for which exact analytical formulas and approximate expressions are provided.