Breadth of range and depth of stock: forecasting and inventory management at Euro Car Parts Ltd.

This paper investigates inventory management issues in a distribution network. The study is motivated by examining the operation of a wholesaling car parts company. Customer service requirements are of paramount importance in this market sector. The nature of the demand facing the company is characterised. The breadth of range of stock keeping units (SKUs) held at a stocking location and the quantity of each SKU held are normally treated in isolation but in this case, the rule developed to select the range of SKU was extended to determine the level of stock to hold. It is intuitively obvious that these two factors should be linked, yet the authors have not found any other literature developing the connection in a practical context. Forecasting issues are explored as the rule on stock range depends on a forecast of the number of orders received for each SKU at each stocking unit. Some implementation issues and extensions are indicated.     

Analysis of optimal opportunistic replenishment policies for inventory systems by using a (s,S) model with a maximum issue quantity restriction

The analysis of optimal inventory replenishment policies for items having lumpy demand patterns is difficult, and has not been studied extensively although these items constitute an appreciable portion of inventory populations in parts and supplies types of stockholdings. This paper studies the control of an inventory item when the demand is lumpy. A continuous review (s,S) policy with a maximum issue quantity restriction and with the possibility of opportunistic replenishment is proposed to avoid the stock of these items being depleted unduly when all the customer orders are satisfied from the available inventory and to reduce ordering cost by coordinating inventory replenishments. The nature of the customer demands is approximated by a compound Poisson distribution. When a customer order arrives, if the order size is greater than the maximum issue quantity w, the order is satisfied by placing a special replenishment order rather than from the available stock directly. In addition, if the current inventory position is equal to or below a critical level A when such an order arrives, an opportunistic replenishment order which combines the special replenishment order and the regular replenishment order will be placed, in order to satisfy the customer's demand and to bring the inventory position to S. In this paper, the properties of the cost function of such an inventory system with respect to the control parameters s, S and A are analysed in detail. An algorithm is developed to determine the global optimal values of the control parameters. Indeed, the incorporation of the maximum issue quantity and opportunistic replenishment into the (s,S) policy reduces the total operating cost of the inventory system.     

Stock Rationing in a Continuous Review Two-Echelon Inventory Model

In this paper we consider a 1-warehouse, N-retailer inventory system where demand occurs at all locations. We introduce an inventory model which allows us to set different service levels for retailers and direct customer demand at the warehouse. For each retailer a critical level is defined, such that a retailer replenishment order is delivered from warehouse stock if and only if the stock level exceeds this critical level. It is assumed that retailer replenishment orders, which are not satisfied from warehouse stock, are delivered directly from the outside supplier, instead of being backlogged. We present an analytical upper bound on the total cost of the system, and develop a heuristic method to optimize the policy parameters. Numerical experiments indicate that our technique provides a very close approximation of the exact cost. Also, we show that differentiating among the retailers and direct customer demand can yield significant cost reductions.     

On the value of customer information for an independent supplier in a continuous review inventory system

We consider the inventory control problem of an independent supplier in a continuous review system. The supplier faces demand from a single customer who in turn faces Poisson demand and follows a continuous review (R, Q) policy. If no information about the inventory levels at the customer is available, reviews and ordering are usually carried out by the supplier only at points in time when a customer demand occurs. It is common to apply an installation stock reorder point policy. However, as the demand faced by the supplier is not Markovian, this policy can be improved by allowing placement of orders at any point in time. We develop a time delay policy for the supplier, wherein the supplier waits until time t after occurrence of the customer demand to place his next order. If the next customer demand occurs before this time delay, then the supplier places an order immediately. We develop an algorithm to determine the optimal time delay policy. We then evaluate the value of information about the customer’s inventory level. Our numerical study shows that if the supplier were to use the optimal time delay policy instead of the installation stock policy then the value of the customer’s inventory information is not very significant.     

Tabu search heuristics for the order batching problem in manual order picking systems

In a manual order picking system, order pickers walk or ride through a distribution warehouse in order to collect items requested by (internal or external) customers. In order to perform these operations efficiently, it is usually required that customer orders be combined into (more substantial) picking orders that are limited in size. The order batching problem considered in this paper deals with the question of how a given set of customer orders should be combined into picking orders such that the total length of all picker tours necessary for all of the requested items to be collected is minimized. For the solution of this problem the authors suggest two approaches based on the tabu search principle. The first is a (classic) tabu search (TS), and the second is the attribute-based hill climber (ABHC). In a series of extensive numerical experiments, these approaches are benchmarked against other solution methods put forward in the current literature. It is demonstrated that the proposed methods are superior to the existing methods and provide solutions which may allow distribution warehouses to operate more efficiently.     

A Note on Fixed and Minimum Order Quantity Stock Systems

It is often believed that the square root formula called the EOQ only applies to situations where customers demand small quantities at a fairly constant rate. This note shows that essentially the same formula can be derived for "lumpy" customer orders occurring at a variable rate. Also, as the EOQ is derived assuming that a fixed quantity is always ordered for replenishment it does not allow for the over-shoot when customer orders exceed the available stock. This note shows that when the EOQ is large relative to the average customer order the overshoot problem can be ignored. However, when the EOQ is small some tentative results involving exponentially distributed customer order quantities indicate that substantial savings can be made using a "minimum order quantity" policy.     

An integrated production and inventory model to dampen upstream demand variability in the supply chain

We consider a two-echelon supply chain: a single retailer holds a finished goods inventory to meet an i.i.d. customer demand, and a single manufacturer produces the retailer’s replenishment orders on a make-to-order basis. In this setting the retailer’s order decision has a direct impact on the manufacturer’s production. It is a well known phenomenon that inventory control policies at the retailer level often propagate customer demand variability towards the manufacturer, sometimes even in an amplified form (known as the bullwhip effect). The manufacturer, however, prefers to smooth production, and thus he prefers a smooth order pattern from the retailer. At first sight a decrease in order variability comes at the cost of an increased variance of the retailer’s inventory levels, inflating the retailer’s safety stock requirements. However, integrating the impact of the retailer’s order decision on the manufacturer’s production leads to new insights. A smooth order pattern generates shorter and less variable (production/replenishment) lead times, introducing a compensating effect on the retailer’s safety stock. We show that by including the impact of the order decision on lead times, the order pattern can be smoothed to a considerable extent without increasing stock levels. This leads to a situation where both parties are better off.     

Admission policies for the customized stochastic lot scheduling problem with strict due-dates

This papers considers admission control and scheduling of customer orders in a production system that produces different items on a single machine. Customer orders drive the production and belong to product families, and have family dependent due-date, size, and reward. When production changes from one family to another a setup time is incurred. Moreover, if an order cannot be accepted, it is considered lost upon arrival. The problem is to find a policy that accepts/rejects and schedules orders such that long run profit is maximized. This problem finds its motivation in batch industries in which suppliers have to realize high machine utilization while delivery times should be short and reliable and the production environment is subject to long setup times.We model the joint admission control/scheduling problem as a Markov decision process (MDP) to gain insight into the optimal control of the production system and use the MDP to benchmark the performance of a simple heuristic acceptance/scheduling policy. Numerical results show that the heuristic performs very well compared with the optimal policy for a wide range of parameter settings, including product family asymmetries in arrival rate, order size, and order reward.     

考虑通货膨胀与最长顾客等待时间的变质性物品的库存模型

本文建立了一种考虑通货膨胀与时间价值的变质性物品的库存模型,在模型中允许短缺发生且拖后的需求速率与在缺货期间已经发生的缺货量有关.和已有相关模型的主要区别在于本模型把一个可重复的订货周期内的最大平均利润的净现值作为目标函数,且增加了在缺货期间最长顾客等待时间的限制,以确保库存系统拥有较高的服务水平.然后讨论了模型最优解的存在性与唯一性,并提供了寻求模型整体最优解的算法.最后用实例说明了此模型在实际中的应用.     

Stock replenishment policies for a stochastic exponentially-declining demand process

This paper addresses the problem of determining stock replenishment policies to meet the demand for spare parts for items of equipment which are no longer manufactured. The assumptions that the number of items still in use is decreasing and that parts fail randomly lend credence to a Poisson demand process with an underlying mean which is decreasing exponentially. We use a dynamic programming formulation in continuous time to determine that replenishment policy which minimises the mean total discounted cost of set-up/order, unit production/purchase, unsatisfied demand and stock left over at the end of the time horizon.     

Evaluation of three production planning procedures for the use of recipe flexibility

Process industries often obtain their raw materials from mining or agricultural industries. These raw materials usually have variations in quality, which often lead to variations in the recipes used for manufacturing a product. Another reason for varying the recipe is to minimize production costs by using the cheapest materials that still lead to a satisfactory quality in the product. A third reason for using recipe flexibility is that it may occur that at the time of production not all materials for the standard recipe are available. In earlier research we showed under what conditions the use of this type of recipe flexibility should be preferred to the use of high materials stock to avoid materials shortages. We also showed that the use of recipe flexibility to account for material shortages can be justified if the material replenishment leadtime is long, the demand uncertainty is high and the required service level is high. In this paper we assume that these conditions are satisfied and we investigate three different production planning procedures that make use of recipe flexibility to cope with the uncertainty in demand and supply. We assume that the customer order leadtime is much smaller than the material replenishment leadtime, and therefore demand uncertainty is high. The optimal procedure optimizes material use over a planning horizon equal to the material replenishment leadtime, taking into account the customers orders and knowledge of the distribution function of future demand. The deterministic procedure also optimizes the material use over the material replenishment leadtime, but it assumes a deterministic demand level for unknown orders. The simplest, myopic procedure optimizes material use over only the accepted customer orders. These three procedures are investigated via an experimental design of computer simulations of an elementary small scale model of the production planning situation. The results show that the optimal procedure outperforms the other two procedures. Furthermore, for a realistic cost structure in feed industry under certain circumstances the use of the optimal procedure may lead to a 4% increase in profit. However, this improvement must be weighted against the cost incurred by the operational use of this complex procedure. Based on these considerations and the numerical results in this paper, we may expect that for some situations in practice the use of the simplest myopic procedure, optimizing material use only over the available customer orders, will be justified from an overall cost point of view.     

Approximate Stock Formulae for Use in Conjunction with the Assortment Problem

This paper considers the calculation of the total stocks which must be held in order to maintain a given service level when the assortment problem approach of dynamic programming is used to select the standard stock sizes. Approximate formulae are derived to calculate the safety and working stocks for any number of standard sizes, assuming that the value of the demand for each stock size is approximately equal. It is shown that even very large reductions in the number of stock lines do not produce correspondingly large reductions in stock levels.     

变换核估计在未知需求分布函数条件下多阶段库存控制策略中的应用研究

传统的多阶段库存控制主要致力于库存持有以及过多库存的经济性研究.随机库存模型经常假定需求分布已知,这样可以产生容易解决的方案.但随着销售信息的不断更新,需求分布函数的参数常常未知.这样传统的多阶段库存模型很难产生最优的库存控制策略.当前文献对未知需求分布函数条件下的多阶段库存管理问题研究得不多,当需求分布函数随时间变化,是个多阶段随机规划问题,通常情况难以直接进行求解.针对一般非平稳需求,还缺少有效的库存管理方法.本文致力于变换核估计和优化理论相结合的方法研究未知需求分布函数条件下多阶段库存控制策略,提供一条多阶段库存控制的新思路.可以很好地确定各阶段的最优订货点、最高库存、最低库存等来达到整个系统的最优,从而节省更多的成本,达到营运资本的永久性减少、更高的销售量和客户满意度,从而增加企业的竞争力.     

Customer waiting times in an (R,S) inventory system with compound Poisson demand

Besides service level and mean physical stock, customer waiting time is an important performance characteristic for an inventory system. In this paper we discuss the calculation of this waiting time in case a periodic review control policy with order-up-to-levelS is used and customers arrive according to a Poisson process. For the case of Gamma distributed demand per customer, we obtain (approximate) expressions for the waiting time characteristics. The approach clearly differs from the traditional approaches. It can also be used to obtain other performance characteristics such as the mean physical stock and the service level.     

The determination of optimal partial fill policy for an inventory system with lumpy demand items

This paper presents a mathematical model developed for the synthesis of optimal replenishment policies for items that experience lumpy demands. In order to avoid disrupting the inventory system, a cutoff point of w units is introduced such that the system would only satisfy routinely customer orders with transaction sizes less than or equal to w units. For customer orders with transaction sizes larger than w units, the system would only supply the cutoff amount (w units). The excess units would be refused. The control discipline is the (s, S) inventory policy with continuous review, and the nature of the customer orders is approximated by a discrete stuttering Poisson distribution. The optimal values of the control parameters, w, s and S, are determined. The theoretical results obtained are illustrated with a numerical example.     

Advanced supply chain planning with mixtures of backorders,lost sales,and lost contract

This paper investigates a supply chain system in which a supplier prepares for the selling season by building stock levels prior to the beginning of the season and shortages realized at the beginning of the season are represented as mixtures of backorders and lost sales. Backlogged items are replenished as soon as possible through an emergency procurement as opposed to waiting until the next scheduled delivery as in many continuous review scenarios, and the backorder rate is modeled as a piecewise linear function of the magnitude of the shortage. The often intangible cost associated with lost sales and customer goodwill is also quantified. In particular, the buyer and supplier are engaged in a contractual agreement and the loss of customer goodwill from the supplier’s perspective is represented as the expected cost associated with violating the conditions of the contract. The likelihood of contract cancellation is also represented as a function of the magnitude of shortage. The optimal solution is derived in closed form for the case of exponential demand distribution, and an example problem is illustrated with numerical data in order to demonstrate calculation of the optimal solution and corresponding sensitivity analysis for demand distributions in which the solution cannot be expressed in closed form.     

The effect of information sharing on supply chain stability and the bullwhip effect

This paper analyzes the bullwhip effect in multi-stage supply chains operated with linear and time-invariant inventory management policies and shared supply chain information. Such information includes past order sequences and inventory records at all supplier stages. The paper characterizes the stream of orders placed at any stage of the chain when the customer demand process is known and ergodic, and gives an exact formula for the variance of the orders placed. The paper also derives robust analytical conditions, based only on inventory management policies, to predict the presence of the bullwhip effect and bound its magnitude. These results hold independently of the customer demand. The general framework proposed in this paper allows for any inventory replenishment policies, any ways of sharing and utilizing information, and any customer demand processes. It is also shown as a special case that sharing customer demand information across the chain significantly reduces, but does not completely eliminate, the bullwhip effect.     

Judgement and supply chain dynamics

Forecasting demand at the individual stock-keeping-unit (SKU) level often necessitates the use of statistical methods, such as exponential smoothing. In some organizations, however, statistical forecasts will be subject to judgemental adjustments by managers. Although a number of empirical and ‘laboratory’ studies have been performed in this area, no formal OR modelling has been conducted to offer insights into the impact such adjustments may have on supply chain performance and the potential development of mitigation mechanisms. This is because of the associated dynamic complexity and the situation-specific nature of the problem at hand. In conjunction with appropriate stock control rules, demand forecasts help decide how much to order. It is a common practice that replenishment orders may also be subject to judgemental intervention, adding further to the dynamic system complexity and interdependence. The system dynamics (SD) modelling method can help advance knowledge in this area, where mathematical modelling cannot accommodate the associated complexity. This study, which constitutes part of a UK government funded (EPSRC) project, uses SD models to evaluate the effects of forecasting and ordering adjustments for a wide set of scenarios involving: three different inventory policies; seven different (combinations of) points of intervention; and four different (combinations of) types of judgmental intervention (optimistic and pessimistic). The results enable insights to be gained into the performance of the entire supply chain. An agenda for further research concludes the paper.     

Inventory management of multiple items with irregular demand: A case study

We present the case of a Greek commercial enterprise facing the problem of managing the inventories of thousands of different items, supplied by more than 20 European and Asian manufacturers and sold to a large number of different-type customers. A key feature of the problem is that the demand for the vast majority of items is intermittent and lumpy, thus not allowing the use of the usual normal or Poisson distributions. The paper describes the solutions given to several practical problems in the course of developing an easy-to-use yet effective and all-encompassing inventory control system. Emphasis is placed on the accurate modeling of demand by means of a gamma distribution with a probability mass at zero or a package Poisson distribution for very-slow-moving items. Using those models and simple quantitative tools we develop an efficient procedure for approximate but quite accurate determination of the base stock levels that achieve the desired fill rates in the proposed periodic review system. We briefly describe the computerized implementation of the new system and the very encouraging results.     

Perishable Inventory System at Service Facilities with N Policy

Abstract

This article presents a perishable stochastic inventory system under continuous review at a service facility in which the waiting hall for customers is of finite size M. The service starts only when the customer level reaches N (< M), once the server has become idle for want of customers. The maximum storage capacity is fixed as S. It is assumed that demand for the commodity is of unit size. The arrivals of customers to the service station form a Poisson process with parameter λ. The individual customer is issued a demanded item after a random service time, which is distributed as negative exponential. The items of inventory have exponential life times. It is also assumed that lead time for the reorders is distributed as exponential and is independent of the service time distribution. The demands that occur during stock out periods are lost.The joint probability distribution of the number of customers in the system and the inventory levels is obtained in steady state case. Some measures of system performance in the steady state are derived. The results are illustrated with numerical examples.