Multi-attribute decision making with generalized fuzzy numbers

This paper proposes a multi-attribute decision-making method with generalized fuzzy numbers (GFNs). In the proposed method, the distance between GFNs is calculated using the Hausdorff distance. Based on the maximizing deviation degree, the attribute weights are determined by a linear programming model. Furthermore, a ranking formula with a modified possibility degree is adopted to rank alternatives. A numerical example is introduced to validate the proposed model, and the results indicate that the proposed model offers a practical and effective way to meet the different assessment requirements of decision makers.     

Organizational decision support systems: Centralized support for decentralized organizations

Organizations are becoming increasingly decentralized in their operations and decision making. Advanced information technologies provide the glue that holds such organizations together and facilitates their operations. Organizational decision support systems (ODSSs) provide mechanisms for ensuring that the decisions being made throughout such organizations are consistent with each other and with the overall organization goals. Through means of an ODSS, information and guidance is automatically passed from higher levels to lower levels for use in decision-making models.     

Extension of VIKOR method for decision making problem with interval numbers

The VIKOR method was developed for multi-criteria optimization of complex systems. It determines the compromise ranking list and the compromise solution obtained with the initial (given) weights. This method focuses on ranking and selecting from a set of alternatives in the presence of conflicting criteria. It introduces the multi-criteria ranking index based on the particular measure of “closeness” to the “ideal” solution. The aim of this paper is to extend the VIKOR method for decision making problems with interval number. The extended VIKOR method’s ranking is obtained through comparison of interval numbers and for doing the comparisons between intervals, we introduce α as optimism level of decision maker. Finally, a numerical example illustrates and clarifies the main results developed in this paper.     

Data analysis and decision support

In this paper, we consider developmental lines of computer-assisted decision support (with consideration of knowledge-based approaches) for data analysis problems. First, we discuss some situations where it is obviously appropriate to apply computer-assisted decision support in connection with data analysis tasks. Then, a brief historical retrospect is given viewing the development of this area of research and its interfaces to knowledge-based approaches. Against this background we illustrate two prototypes of knowledge-based decision support systems for specific data-analysis problems related to fields of interest of our own. Finally, we indicate possible progress and future activities in this area.     

Wisdom,decision support and paradigms of decision making

Many decision support tools have been developed over the last 20 years and, in general, they support what Simon termed substantive rationality. However, such tools are rarely suited to helping people tackle wicked problems, for which a form of procedural rationality is better suited. Procedurally rational approaches have appeared in both management science and computer science, examples being the soft OR approach of cognitive mapping and the design rationale based on IBIS. These approaches are reviewed and the development of Wisdom, a procedurally rational decision support process and accompanying tool, is discussed and evaluated.     

Natural discrete-event process forecasting: A decision support system

A decision support system for the analysis and forecasting of natural discrete-event processes is considered. The corresponding method is based on the sample path analysis using event-to-event operations. An application of the method in the computer-aided decision support system for the long-range weather forecasting is mentioned.     

Exponential operations for intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and interval numbers in multi-attribute decision making

Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs) have already been applied to many fields, especially in multi-attribute decision making (MADM). Based on the basic operational laws and information aggregation methods of IFNs, MADM with intuitionistic fuzzy information has become more and more popular. In this paper, we investigate the MADM problems where the attribute values take the form of interval numbers and the weight information on the attributes are expressed as IFNs. We first propose a novel exponential operational law based on IFNs and interval numbers, and then study some of its desirable properties. Based on the exponential operational law, we put forward an intuitionistic fuzzy weighted exponential aggregation operator, and utilize it to develop a MADM method. Finally, we apply our method to solve the decision making problem under uncertainty.     

Deriving weights in multiple-criteria decision making with support vector machines

A key problem in Multiple-Criteria Decision Making is how to measure the importance of the different criteria when just a partial preference relation among actions is given. In this note we address the problem of constructing a linear score function (and thus how to associate weights of importance to the criteria) when a binary relation comparing actions and partial information (relative importance) on the criteria are given. It is shown that these tasks can be done viaSupport Vector Machines, an increasingly popular Data Mining technique, which reduces the search of the weights to the resolution of (a series of) nonlinear convex optimization problems with linear constraints. An interactive method is then presented and illustrated by solving a multiple-objective 0–1 knapsack problem. Extensions to the case in which data are imprecise (given by intervals) or intransitivities in strict preferences exist are outlined.     

Executive views concerning decision support tools

Support tools for strategic-level decision-making have become increasingly popular. This study investigates the role of OR/MS tools in today’s strategic-level decision support tool market. Executives working in Finland’s 500 largest companies were asked about the decision support tools they use when making major decisions. The responses received indicated that executives actively use a variety of tools, and an average of five different strategic-level tools. Approximately 10% of the tools used could be identified as OR/MS type, these often suit the needs of larger companies with strategic logistical or production functions and compared to other tools, have a specific profile. Executives see advantages in using tools that provide cognitive, collaboration and communication possibilities, and also in using tools that make processes more efficient. OR methodologies have influenced some of the other tools on the market, but ‘soft OR’ tool usage could not be identified. Tools which support creativity are needed.     

Composite alternatives in group decision support

Decision theory models of group decision processes usually assume a given set of alternatives, from which the group has to choose. In realistic group decision situations, however, alternatives are often not specified a priori, but are created during the group process from different components introduced by the group members. This paper develops methods for systematically creating such composite alternatives, also taking into account the necessity to keep both the computational effort and the cognitive load to group members within reasonable limits.Paper presented at the International Conference on Support Systems for Decision and Negotiation Processes DNS-92, Warsaw, 1992.     

Modelling and decision support in physiology and medicine: a methodological framework with lllustration

This paper presents a methodological framework for modelling that has found wide application in the complex domains of physiology and medicine. The processes of model validation are centrally embedded within this framework. The parallelism between modelling per se and the development of model-based decision support systems is then considered, showing that it is possible to devise a unified methodological framework which encompasses the requirements both of model validation and decision support system evaluation. The applicability of the framework is demonstrated in the validation of a mathematical model of blood glucose dynamics; and in the development and evaluation of decision support systems such as those which are aimed at addressing the problem of advising the insulin-dependent diabetic patient on the adjustment of insulin dosage     

Map-Route: a GIS-based decision support system for intra-city vehicle routing with time windows

This paper presents a Decision Support System (DSS) that enables dispatchers–schedulers to approach intra-city vehicle routing problems with time windows interactively, using appropriate computational methods and exploiting a custom knowledge base that contains information about traffic and spatial data. The DSS, named Map-Route, generates routes that satisfy time and vehicle capacity constraints. Its computational engine is based on an effective heuristic method for solving the underlying optimization problem, while its implementation is developed using MapInfo, a popular Geographical Information System (GIS) platform. Map-Route provides very efficient solutions, is particularly user-friendly, and can reach answers for a wide variety of ‘what if’ scenarios with potentially significant cost implications. We have implemented Map-Route in an actual industrial environment and we report on the experience gained from this real-life application.     

FuelOpt: a decision support system for forest fuel logistics

The use of forest fuel is increasing at heating plants in Sweden. Heating plants provide energy in the form of hot water for heating houses and apartments in local municipalities. Forest fuel are products obtained from harvesting in forests that cannot be used for further processing at sawmills and pulp and paper mills. Examples of such products are tree branches, tree tops and low quality logs. The optimization of the supply chain for round-wood (logs to sawmills, pulp and paper mills) and for forest fuel is similar but involves two main differences. First, forest fuel has to be converted into chips before delivery to the customer, and second, the demand for forest fuel varies over the year due to the temperature. To balance the chipping and transportation capacities over time, it is important to manage inventory levels at terminals. The optimization model developed provides decision support for questions regarding the choice of technology for chipping, where to perform the chipping operations, and the allocation of different assortments to heating plants. The system has been tested on a large case study from a Swedish forest energy company. The results show large savings and that the system is very useful for both planning and business development.     

Type-2 fuzzy numbers made simple in decision making

Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making - For the decision-making problems based on decision makers’ judgments in terms of linguistic terms, we propose type-2 fuzzy numbers (T2FNs) that allow...     

A theory of motivation and satisfaction with application to decision support

The paper deals with optimization of allocation of human resources among different activities. It is assumed that an individual is characterized by a risk averse and constant return to scale utility function of two variables: motivation to perform and reward following the performance. The individual is trying to maximize the utility by the best allocation of his time resources among the activities and by selecting the best portfolio of activities. Motivations are regarded, generally, as the product of the individual's preferences (i.e. subjective choice probabilities), productivities of time, output prices, performance and access probabilities, etc., while the rewards are profits or salaries connected with each activity. Satisfaction is defined as the maximum of utility attained for the optimum allocation and selection strategies. It is shown that for the given equitable reward rate, the optimum allocation and portfolio selection strategies can be derived explicitly and the derivation does not require the explicit knowledge of the individual's utility function.     

MOIRA: A decision support system for decision making on aquatic ecosystems contaminated by radioactive fallout

Interventions to restore radionuclide contaminated aquatic ecosystems may reduce individual and collective radiation doses, but may also result in detrimental ecological, social and economic effects. Decision makers must carefully evaluate possible impacts before choosing a countermeasure, hence decision analysis methods constitute an important aid to rank intervention strategies after the contamination of an aquatic ecosystem. We describe MOIRA, a decision support system for the identification of optimal remedial strategies to restore water systems after accidental introduction of radioactive substances. MOIRA includes an evaluation module based on a multi-attribute value model to rank alternatives and a module to perform multiparametric sensitivity analyses, both with respect to weights and values, to allow us to gain insights into the problem. The problem is under certainty since the validation of models used to quantify countermeasure impacts suggests little uncertainty in policy effects.The system is implemented in a PC based decision support system which allows the inclusion of all relevant information.     

Computerized support systems for emergency decision making

In all fields of human society, occasional emergencies are almost inevitable. Once an emergency occurs, rapid and proper decision making is required. The purpose of this paper is to explore the design and development of computerized support systems for emergency decision making (EDM). First the characteristics of EDM problems are examined. Then, in view of limited human computer rationality, requirements for a computerized support system for EDM are determined. A conceptual structure for knowledge-based distributed emergency decision support systems is proposed. Finally, a prototype system for safety protection and disaster response in coal mines, developed using the proposed structure, is briefly described.This work is partly supported by the State Science and Technology Commission of China, the National Key Laboratory on Industrial Control of China and Fok Ying Tung Education Foundation.     

Clinical decision support system for dental treatment

BackgroundIn this research, a decision making system, based on fuzzy inference mechanism as proposed by Mamdani, is presented. Literature suggests that there is a lack of consistency among dentists in choosing treatment plan(s). So, this research work aims to facilitate the dentist decide the treatment plan(s) of the broken tooth.MethodsAn expert system based on fuzzy logic has been designed to accept inaccurate and vague values of dental signs and symptoms associated with the broken tooth. We designed a knowledge base with 60 rules and used Mamdani inference algorithm to decide the possible one or more treatment(s) and suggest the same to the dentist.ResultsThe results proposed by the system are compared with the dentists’ suggestions. The Chi-square test of homogeneity is conducted on 100 randomly generated sample cases with the help of three professional dentists. It is found that the results produced by the system are consistent with the treatment plan(s) proposed by the dentists. Chi-square value of the test is 3.843565 which is less than the critical value which is 12.592. Hence, we are unable to reject the null hypothesis that assumes the two populations are homogeneous with respect to treatments.ConclusionsThe accuracy of the proposed decision support system for the treatment of broken tooth enhances the confidence level of the dentists while making decision regarding the treatment plan(s). Simple and interactive GUI makes it easy to use.