Stochastic Material and Topology Design

In order to find a robust optimal topology or material design with respect to stochastic variations of the model parameters of a mechanical structure, the basic optimization problem under stochastic uncertainty must be replaced by an appropriate deterministic substitute problem. Starting from the equilibrium equation and the yield/strength conditions, the problem can be formulated as a stochastic (linear) program “with recourse”. Hence, by discretization the design space by finite elements, linearizing the yield conditions, in case of discrete probability distributions the resulting deterministic substitute problems are linear programs with a dual decomposition data structure.     

Newton-type methods for stochastic programming

Stochastic programming is concerned with practical procedures for decision making under uncertainty, by modelling uncertainties and risks associated with decision in a form suitable for optimization. The field is developing rapidly with contributions from many disciplines such as operations research, probability and statistics, and economics. A stochastic linear program with recourse can equivalently be formulated as a convex programming problem. The problem is often large-scale as the objective function involves an expectation, either over a discrete set of scenarios or as a multi-dimensional integral. Moreover, the objective function is possibly nondifferentiable. This paper provides a brief overview of recent developments on smooth approximation techniques and Newton-type methods for solving two-stage stochastic linear programs with recourse, and parallel implementation of these methods. A simple numerical example is used to signal the potential of smoothing approaches.     

Topology optimization of plane frames in case of random external loadings

Using the first collapse–theorem, the necessary and sufficient survival conditions of an elasto–plastic structure consist of the yield condition and the equilibrium condition. In practical applications several random model parameters have to be taken into account. This leads to a stochastic optimization problem which cannot be solved using the traditional methods. Instead of that, appropriate (deterministic) substitute problems must be formulated. Here, the topology optimization of frames is considered, where the external load is supposed to be stochastic. The recourse problem will be formulated in general and in the standard form of stochastic linear programming (SLP). After the formulation of the stochastic optimization problem, the recourse problem with discretization and the expected value problem are introduced as representatives of substitute problems. Subsequently, numerical results using these methods are presented. (© 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Optimal Design of Plane Frames under Uncertainty: A Comparison of Two Approaches

Using the first collapse theorem, the necessary and sufficient survival conditions of an elasto-plastic structure consist of the yield condition and the equilibrium condition. In practical applications several random model parameters have to be taken into account. This leads to a stochastic optimization problem which cannot be solved using the traditional methods. Instead of that, appropriate (deterministic) substitute problems must be formulated. Here, the design of plane frames is considered, where the applied load is supposed to be stochastic. In the first approach the recourse problem will be formulated in the standard form of stochastic linear programming (SLP). In order to apply efficient numerical solution procedures (LP-solvers), approximate recourse problems based on discretization (RPD) and the expected value problem (EVP) are introduced. In the second approach – based on the yield condition – a quadratic cost function will be introduced. After the formulation of the stochastic optimization problem, the expected cost based optimization problem (ECBOP) and the minimum expected cost problem (MECP) are formulated as representatives of appropriate substitute problems. Subsequently, comparative numerical results using these methods are presented. (© 2009 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Optimal design and sensitivity of large scale plane frames for the case of uncertainty

This paper deals with the optimal design and the robustness of large scale plane frames in dependence of their height. Using the first collapse theorem, the necessary and sufficient survival conditions of an elasto-plastic structure consist of the yield condition and the equilibrium condition. The basis for our consideration is provided by a plane n-storey frame which will be increased successively, and which is affected by applied random forces and moments. Taking into account these random applied loads, we get a stochastic structural optimization problem which cannot be solved using the traditional methods. Instead of that, an appropriate (deterministic) substitute problem is formulated. First, the recourse problem will be formulated in general and in the standard form of stochastic linear programming (SLP), and after the formulation of the stochastic optimization problem, the Recourse Problem based on Discretization (RPD) is introduced as a representative of substitute problems. The resulting (large scale) linear program (LP) can be solved efficiently by means of usual LP-solvers. (© 2010 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

A Chance Constrained Approach to Fractional Programming with Random Numerator

This paper presents a chance constrained programming approach to the problem of maximizing the ratio of two linear functions of decision variables which are subject to linear inequality constraints. The coefficient parameters of the numerator of the objective function are assumed to be random variables with a known multivariate normal probability distribution. A deterministic equivalent of the stochastic linear fractional programming formulation has been obtained and a subsidiary convex program is given to solve the deterministic problem.     

Problem-based optimal scenario generation and reduction in stochastic programming

Scenarios are indispensable ingredients for the numerical solution of stochastic programs. Earlier approaches to optimal scenario generation and reduction are based on stability arguments involving distances of probability measures. In this paper we review those ideas and suggest to make use of stability estimates based only on problem specific data. For linear two-stage stochastic programs we show that the problem-based approach to optimal scenario generation can be reformulated as best approximation problem for the expected recourse function which in turn can be rewritten as a generalized semi-infinite program. We show that the latter is convex if either right-hand sides or costs are random and can be transformed into a semi-infinite program in a number of cases. We also consider problem-based optimal scenario reduction for two-stage models and optimal scenario generation for chance constrained programs. Finally, we discuss problem-based scenario generation for the classical newsvendor problem.

     

Stochastic second-order cone programming: Applications models

Second-order cone programs are a class of convex optimization problems. We refer to them as deterministic second-order cone programs (DSCOPs) since data defining them are deterministic. In DSOCPs we minimize a linear objective function over the intersection of an affine set and a product of second-order (Lorentz) cones. Stochastic programs have been studied since 1950s as a tool for handling uncertainty in data defining classes of optimization problems such as linear and quadratic programs. Stochastic second-order cone programs (SSOCPs) with recourse is a class of optimization problems that defined to handle uncertainty in data defining DSOCPs. In this paper we describe four application models leading to SSOCPs.     

A simple recourse model for power dispatch under uncertain demand

Optimal power dispatch under uncertainty of power demand is tackled via a stochastic programming model with simple recourse. The decision variables correspond to generation policies of a system comprising thermal units, pumped storage plants and energy contracts. The paper is a case study to test the kernel estimation method in the context of stochastic programming. Kernel estimates are used to approximate the unknown probability distribution of power demand. General stability results from stochastic programming yield the asymptotic stability of optimal solutions. Kernel estimates lead to favourable numerical properties of the recourse model (no numerical integration, the optimization problem is smooth convex and of moderate dimension). Test runs based on real-life data are reported. We compute the value of the stochastic solution for different problem instances and compare the stochastic programming solution with deterministic solutions involving adjusted demand portions.This research is supported by the Schwerpunktprogramm Anwendungsbezogene Optimierung und Steuerung of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.     

Stochastic Programming Applied to Human Resource Planning

This paper shows how state space models for human resource planning may be extended from linear and goal-programming formulations to cover the case where manpower demands and available resources for future periods are not known with certainty. Under reasonable assumptions, the problem can be treated as a multi-period stochastic program with simple recourse. Normal and Beta probability distributions are fitted to the right hand sides, and the equivalent determinstic programme solved using convex separable programming. An application of this methodology to a military human resource planning problem is described. Solution times for the stochastic model compare favourably with those for a goal-programming model of the same human resource system.     

The value of the stochastic solution in stochastic linear programs with fixed recourse

Stochastic linear programs have been rarely used in practical situations largely because of their complexity. In evaluating these problems without finding the exact solution, a common method has been to find bounds on the expected value of perfect information. In this paper, we consider a different method. We present bounds on the value of the stochastic solution, that is, the potential benefit from solving the stochastic program over solving a deterministic program in which expected values have replaced random parameters. These bounds are calculated by solving smaller programs related to the stochastic recourse problem.This paper is an extension of part of the author's dissertation in the Department of Operations Research, Stanford University, Stanford, California. The research was supported at Stanford by the Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC03-76SF00326, PA#DE-AT03-76ER72018, Office of Naval Research under Contract N00014-75-C-0267 and the National Science Foundation under Grants MCS76-81259, MCS-7926009 and ECS-8012974 (formerly ENG77-06761).     

Improving constants of strong convexity in linear stochastic programming

We derive formulas for constants of strong convexity (CSCs) of expectation functions encountered in two-stage stochastic programs with linear recourse. One of them yields a CSC as the optimal value of a certain quadratically constrained quadratic program, another one in terms of the thickness of the feasibility polytope of the dual problem associated to the recourse problem. CSCs appear in Hoelder-type estimates relating the distance of optimal solution sets of stochastic programs to a suitable distance of underlying probability distributions.     

Decision-dependent probabilities in stochastic programs with recourse

Stochastic programming with recourse usually assumes uncertainty to be exogenous. Our work presents modelling and application of decision-dependent uncertainty in mathematical programming including a taxonomy of stochastic programming recourse models with decision-dependent uncertainty. The work includes several ways of incorporating direct or indirect manipulation of underlying probability distributions through decision variables in two-stage stochastic programming problems. Two-stage models are formulated where prior probabilities are distorted through an affine transformation or combined using a convex combination of several probability distributions. Additionally, we present models where the parameters of the probability distribution are first-stage decision variables. The probability distributions are either incorporated in the model using the exact expression or by using a rational approximation. Test instances for each formulation are solved with a commercial solver, BARON, using selective branching.     

The Multi-Handler Knapsack Problem under Uncertainty

The Multi-Handler Knapsack Problem under Uncertainty is a new stochastic knapsack problem where, given a set of items, characterized by volume and random profit, and a set of potential handlers, we want to find a subset of items which maximizes the expected total profit. The item profit is given by the sum of a deterministic profit plus a stochastic profit due to the random handling costs of the handlers. On the contrary of other stochastic problems in the literature, the probability distribution of the stochastic profit is unknown. By using the asymptotic theory of extreme values, a deterministic approximation for the stochastic problem is derived. The accuracy of such a deterministic approximation is tested against the two-stage with fixed recourse formulation of the problem. Very promising results are obtained on a large set of instances in negligible computing time.     

Stochastic programming with fuzzy linear partial information on probability distribution

This paper deals with stochastic programming problems where the probability distribution is not explicitly known. We suppose that the probability distribution is defined by crisp or fuzzy inequalities on the probability of the different states of nature. We formulate the problem and present a solution strategy that uses the α-cut technique in order to transform our problem into a stochastic program with linear partial information on probability distribution (SPI). The obtained SPI problem is than solved using two approaches, namely, a chance constrained approach and a recourse approach. For the recourse approach, a modified L-shaped algorithm is designed and illustrated by an example.     

Quantitative stability of mixed-integer two-stage quadratic stochastic programs

For our introduced mixed-integer quadratic stochastic program with fixed recourse matrices, random recourse costs, technology matrix and right-hand sides, we study quantitative stability properties of its optimal value function and optimal solution set when the underlying probability distribution is perturbed with respect to an appropriate probability metric. To this end, we first establish various Lipschitz continuity results about the value function and optimal solutions of mixed-integer parametric quadratic programs with parameters in the linear part of the objective function and in the right-hand sides of linear constraints. The obtained results extend earlier results about quantitative stability properties of stochastic integer programming and stability results for mixed-integer parametric quadratic programs.     

Stochastic programming with simple integer recourse

Stochastic integer programs are notoriously difficult. Very few properties are known and solution algorithms are very scarce. In this paper, we introduce the class of stochastic programs with simple integer recourse, a natural extension of the simple recourse case extensively studied in stochastic continuous programs.Analytical as well as computational properties of the expected recourse function of simple integer recourse problems are studied. This includes sharp bounds on this function and the study of the convex hull. Finally, a finite termination algorithm is obtained that solves two classes of stochastic simple integer recourse problems.Supported by the National Operations Research Network in the Netherlands (LNMB).     

A gaussian upper bound for gaussian multi-stage stochastic linear programs

This paper deals with two-stage and multi-stage stochastic programs in which the right-hand sides of the constraints are Gaussian random variables. Such problems are of interest since the use of Gaussian estimators of random variables is widespread. We introduce algorithms to find upper bounds on the optimal value of two-stage and multi-stage stochastic (minimization) programs with Gaussian right-hand sides. The upper bounds are obtained by solving deterministic mathematical programming problems with dimensions that do not depend on the sample space size. The algorithm for the two-stage problem involves the solution of a deterministic linear program and a simple semidefinite program. The algorithm for the multi-stage problem invovles the solution of a quadratically constrained convex programming problem.     

Two-stage non-cooperative games with risk-averse players

This paper formally introduces and studies a non-cooperative multi-agent game under uncertainty. The well-known Nash equilibrium is employed as the solution concept of the game. While there are several formulations of a stochastic Nash equilibrium problem, we focus mainly on a two-stage setting of the game wherein each agent is risk-averse and solves a rival-parameterized stochastic program with quadratic recourse. In such a game, each agent takes deterministic actions in the first stage and recourse decisions in the second stage after the uncertainty is realized. Each agent’s overall objective consists of a deterministic first-stage component plus a second-stage mean-risk component defined by a coherent risk measure describing the agent’s risk aversion. We direct our analysis towards a broad class of quantile-based risk measures and linear-quadratic recourse functions. For this class of non-cooperative games under uncertainty, the agents’ objective functions can be shown to be convex in their own decision variables, provided that the deterministic component of these functions have the same convexity property. Nevertheless, due to the non-differentiability of the recourse functions, the agents’ objective functions are at best directionally differentiable. Such non-differentiability creates multiple challenges for the analysis and solution of the game, two principal ones being: (1) a stochastic multi-valued variational inequality is needed to characterize a Nash equilibrium, provided that the players’ optimization problems are convex; (2) one needs to be careful in the design of algorithms that require differentiability of the objectives. Moreover, the resulting (multi-valued) variational formulation cannot be expected to be of the monotone type in general. The main contributions of this paper are as follows: (a) Prior to addressing the main problem of the paper, we summarize several approaches that have existed in the literature to deal with uncertainty in a non-cooperative game. (b) We introduce a unified formulation of the two-stage SNEP with risk-averse players and convex quadratic recourse functions and highlight the technical challenges in dealing with this game. (c) To handle the lack of smoothness, we propose smoothing schemes and regularization that lead to differentiable approximations. (d) To deal with non-monotonicity, we impose a generalized diagonal dominance condition on the players’ smoothed objective functions that facilitates the application and ensures the convergence of an iterative best-response scheme. (e) To handle the expectation operator, we rely on known methods in stochastic programming that include sampling and approximation. (f) We provide convergence results for various versions of the best-response scheme, particularly for the case of private recourse functions. Overall, this paper lays the foundation for future research into the class of SNEPs that provides a constructive paradigm for modeling and solving competitive decision making problems with risk-averse players facing uncertainty; this paradigm is very much at an infancy stage of research and requires extensive treatment in order to meet its broad applications in many engineering and economics domains.