基于随机模糊理论的结构可靠性分析

在结构可靠性分析中，由于缺乏足够数据或信息不完整，元件强度和外载的分布参数只能根据已有的实验和专家的经验采用模糊变量进行描述。此时强度和外载是随机模糊变量，基于随机模糊理论，本文提出概率模型的分布参数为模糊变量时的结构可靠性度量指标计算模型。该模型不但可以解决应力和强度服从任意分布时的可靠度问题而且也为计算多变量模型提供了一种计算可靠度的方法。最后通过算例，验证了该方法的有效性和合理性。     

单失效模式双变量函数复杂系统模糊随机可靠性广义模型研究

在综合考虑系统功能函数变量不同属性的基础上 ,建立了单一失效模式下复杂系统模糊随机可靠性的广义模型 ,并讨论了广义模型与各个单一模型之间的关系 ,为产品在复杂状态下的可靠性求解提供了统一的数学模型 .分析讨论表明 :所建立的模糊随机可靠性广义模型更具有一般性 .     

单源模糊数的模糊随机有限元方程的解法

在工程实际情况下,有时候可以利用单源模糊数的运算法则,来减少模糊随机有限元方程的计算量.通过推导证明,其计算量仅相当于求解普通的随机有限元方程.为了更好地适应现代工程设计的需要,还提出用模糊随机有限元方程计算结果求结构模糊失效概率的近似方法.     

基于两阶段局部抽样策略的结构可靠性分析

工程实践中存在着各种不确定性因素，影响着工程结构的安全运行。结构可靠性分析以失效概率的形式考虑了不确定性的影响，可为结构的安全设计提供指导。然而，失效概率的评估往往涉及昂贵功能函数的调用，导致难以负担的计算成本。为解决该问题，基于Kriging模型的可靠性分析法在近年来受到了广泛的关注。该方法以训练良好的Kriging模型近似真实功能函数，从而在失效概率的计算中达到减少功能函数评价次数的目的。本文在主动学习Kriging模型的框架下，提出了基于两阶段局部抽样策略的结构可靠性分析法，以提高失效概率的估计精度和计算效率。在该方法中，Kriging模型的训练样本以两阶段局部抽样的方式从候选样本池中被逐渐添加。第一阶段以输入变量的均值点为抽样中心，利用概率密度函数确定抽样区域。当所估计失效概率满足基于置信区间的阶段划分阈值时，则开始第二阶段的局部抽样。第二阶段则以最可能失效点为抽样中心，以目标可靠度和功能函数的非线性度确定抽样区域。应用案例表明：所提方法能平衡有效抽样区域的全局探索和局部搜索，实现高精度失效概率估计的同时提高计算效率。     

基于模糊故障树的高速列车电流互感器可靠性分析

针对目前高速列车差动保护系统所使用的直通式电流互感器的结构与运行方式,结合主要元件的故障模式和机理,构建故障树模型,采用下行法计算其最小割集为84个,利用专家评分法与梯度模糊数相结合的方法计算故障树各个底事件与中间事件的发生概率及其权重,进而计算出顶事件的失效概率,发现其可靠度较高,其中绕组故障对顶事件(电流互感器失效)的贡献度最高,通过与传统的模糊故障树分析法作比较,体现出了本文所提算法的优越性。可为高速列车电力牵引系统的可靠性量化分析与评估奠定基础,为动车组电流互感器的运营维护决策提供依据。     

含直觉模糊弹性约束的广义模糊变量线性规划

本文基于模糊结构元方法建立并讨论了一类含有直觉模糊弹性约束的广义模糊变量线性 规划问题。首先,简单介绍了结构元方法并对结构元加权排序中权函数表征决策者风险态度进行了深入分析。然后,通过选取风险中立型决策态度来定义序关系并拓展Verdegay模糊线性规划方法,将新型模糊变量线性规划问题转化为两个含一般模糊弹性约束的模糊变量线性规划模型,给出了此类规划最优直觉模糊解的求法。最后,通过数值算例进一步说明该方法的有效性。     

基于模糊模拟的风险投资项目决策

由于风险投资的高不确定性和风险性,使得人们难以准确预测风险投资项目的收益和状态概率,而只能得到其大致的区间范围。鉴于这种情况,本文将投资项目收益和状态概率描述为模糊变量,利用模糊变量的均值和方差建立了模糊风险投资决策模型,并给出利用模糊模拟方法计算的实例。     

2-型模糊环境下的能源系统优化

基于模糊可能性理论,建立2-型模糊环境下的能源分配优化模型,其中各种类型能源的成本用2-型模糊变量刻画.用均值简约方法简约2-型模糊成本,建立广义期望值意义下的模糊能源分配优化模型.当成本用相互独立的三角2-型模糊变量刻画时,所建立的模糊能源分配优化模型可以转化为等价的参数线性规划.最后提供一个数值例子表明建模思想.     

2-型供应链网络设计优化

基于模糊可能性理论,研究了2-型模糊供应链网络设计问题。考虑到运输费用和顾客需求的不确定性,我们用2-型模糊变量来刻画,建立了2-型模糊环境下的期望值供应链网络设计模型。当2-型模糊变量相互独立且服从三角分布时,我们将原模型转化为等价的确定模型。等价模型是一个0-1混合整数参数规划,因此可采用Lingo软件求解。最后,我们通过数值例子演示所提建模思想。实验结果证明了所建模型的有效性。     

模糊运算和模糊有限元静力控制方程的求解

根据模糊数的区间形式表达和区间运算的性质,给出了模糊数和模糊变量的运算规则.据此并依据区间有限元理论,提出了结构模糊有限元静力控制方程的几种求解方法.方法可根据输入模糊数的隶属函数,给出结构响应量的可能性分布.且计算量小,易于实施.算例分析说明了方法是实用和可行的.     

Hybrid control variates-based simulation method for structural reliability analysis of some problems with low failure probability

The safety analysis of systems with nonlinear performance function and small probability of failure is a challenge in the field of reliability analysis. In this study, an efficient approach is presented for approximating small failure probabilities. To meet this aim, by introducing Probability Density Function (PDF) control variates, the original failure probability integral was reformulated based on the Control Variates Technique (CVT). Accordingly, using the adaptive cooperation of the subset simulation (SubSim) and the CVT, a new formulation was offered for the approximation of small failure probabilities. The proposed formulation involves a probability term (resulting from a fast-moving SubSim) and an adaptive weighting term that refines the obtained probability. Several numerical and engineering problems, involving nonlinear performance functions and system-level reliability problems, are solved by the proposed approach and common reliability methods. Results showed that the proposed simulation approach is not only more efficient, but is also robust than common reliability methods. It also presents a good potential for application in engineering reliability problems.     

Optimal compromise solution of multi-objective minimal cost flow problems in fuzzy environment

Ghatee and Hashemi [M. Ghatee, S.M. Hashemi, Ranking function-based solutions of fully fuzzified minimal cost flow problem, Inform. Sci. 177 (2007) 4271–4294] transformed the fuzzy linear programming formulation of fully fuzzy minimal cost flow (FFMCF) problems into crisp linear programming formulation and used it to find the fuzzy optimal solution of balanced FFMCF problems. In this paper, it is pointed out that the method for transforming the fuzzy linear programming formulation into crisp linear programming formulation, used by Ghatee and Hashemi, is not appropriate and a new method is proposed to find the fuzzy optimal solution of multi-objective FFMCF problems. The proposed method can also be used to find the fuzzy optimal solution of single-objective FFMCF problems. To show the application of proposed method in real life problems an existing real life FFMCF problem is solved.     

Establishment of non-negative constraint method as a robust and efficient first-order reliability method

In structural reliability analysis, computation of reliability index or probability of failure is the main purpose. The Hasofer–Lind and Rackwitz–Fiessler (HL-RF) method is a widely used method in the category of first-order reliability methods (FORM). However, this method cannot be trusted for highly nonlinear limit state functions. Two proposed methods of this paper replace the original real valued constraint of FORM with a non-negative constraint, in all steps and during the whole procedure. First, the non-negative constraint is directly used to construct a non-negative Lagrange function and a search direction vector. Then, the first- and second-order Taylor approximation of the non-negative constraint are employed to compute step sizes of the first and second proposed methods, respectively. Contribution of the non-negative constraint and the effective approach of determining step sizes have led to the efficient computation of reliability index in nonlinear problems. The robustness and efficiency of two proposed methods are shown in various mathematical and structural examples of the literature.     

结构模糊可靠性分析方法的泛灰求解

针对现有的基于区间求解结构模糊可靠度方法的缺陷,提出了一种新的求解结构模糊可靠度方法.该方法利用泛灰数描述与结构基本变量概率分布相关的不确定参数,并将这些泛灰数引入到结构模糊可靠度计算中,得出了较为精确的结构可靠度计算结果.数值算例表明,该方法得到的结构可靠度区间更窄,实现了利用较少的信息量得到较精确的可靠度计算结果,相比传统的结构模糊可靠度计算方法能提供更多、更精确的关于结构安全程度的有用信息.     

Two basic problems in reliability-based structural optimization

Optimization of structures with respect to performance, weight or cost is a well-known application of mathematical optimization theory. However optimization of structures with respect to weight or cost under probabilistic reliability constraints or optimization with respect to reliability under cost/weight constraints has been subject of only very few studies. The difficulty in using probabilistic constraints or reliability targets lies in the fact that modern reliability methods themselves are formulated as a problem of optimization. In this paper two special formulations based on the so-called first-order reliability method (FORM) are presented. It is demonstrated that both problems can be solved by a one-level optimization problem, at least for problems in which structural failure is characterized by a single failure criterion. Three examples demonstrate the algorithm indicating that the proposed formulations are comparable in numerical effort with an approach based on semi-infinite programming but are definitely superior to a two-level formulation.     

A new method for solving fuzzy transportation problems using ranking function

In the literature, several methods are proposed for solving transportation problems in fuzzy environment but in all the proposed methods the parameters are represented by normal fuzzy numbers. [S.H. Chen, Operations on fuzzy numbers with function principal, Tamkang Journal of Management Sciences 6 (1985) 13–25] pointed out that in many cases it is not to possible to restrict the membership function to the normal form and proposed the concept of generalized fuzzy numbers. There are several papers in the literature in which generalized fuzzy numbers are used for solving real life problems but to the best of our knowledge, till now no one has used generalized fuzzy numbers for solving the transportation problems. In this paper, a new method is proposed for solving fuzzy transportation problems by assuming that a decision maker is uncertain about the precise values of the transportation cost, availability and demand of the product. In the proposed method transportation cost, availability and demand of the product are represented by generalized trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. To illustrate the proposed method a numerical example is solved and the obtained results are compared with the results of existing methods. Since the proposed method is a direct extension of classical method so the proposed method is very easy to understand and to apply on real life transportation problems for the decision makers.     

Stackelberg solutions for fuzzy random two-level linear programming through probability maximization with possibility

This paper considers Stackelberg solutions for decision making problems in hierarchical organizations under fuzzy random environments. Taking into account vagueness of judgments of decision makers, fuzzy goals are introduced into the formulated fuzzy random two-level linear programming problems. On the basis of the possibility and necessity measures that each objective function fulfills the corresponding fuzzy goal, together with the introduction of probability maximization criterion in stochastic programming, we propose new two-level fuzzy random decision making models which maximize the probabilities that the degrees of possibility and necessity are greater than or equal to certain values. Through the proposed models, it is shown that the original two-level linear programming problems with fuzzy random variables can be transformed into deterministic two-level linear fractional programming problems. For the transformed problems, extended concepts of Stackelberg solutions are defined and computational methods are also presented. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the proposed methods.     

基于犹豫模糊二元语义的多属性决策方法

深入研究了犹豫模糊二元语义多属性决策问题。首先利用幂均算子给出了犹豫模糊二元语义集的均值函数,并基于均匀分布概率准则和二元语义的距离测度提出了犹豫模糊二元语义集两两比较的可能度公式,进一步给出了可能度排序公式的性质。针对属性值为犹豫模糊二元语义集的多属性决策问题,提出了一种基于熵权的多属性决策方法。最后结合实际问题,验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。     

Fuzzy理论在工程环境灾害预测中的应用

针对矿山大型排土场所出现的滑坡等工程环境灾害的预测与防治问题,着重探讨排土场边坡失稳破坏预测问题.文中采用Fuzzy数学中的Fuzzy概率测度理论建立理论预测分析模型,并对大型排土场边坡失稳破坏的Fuzzy概率测度进行具体的预测分析,所获结果与已有的经典分析方法所获理论结果一致.针对矿山大型排土场所出现的滑坡等工程环境灾害防治问题,提出了具体的防治技术措施.