A consistent value for games with n players and r alternatives

In Bolger [1993], an efficient value was obtained for a class of games called games with n players and r alternatives. In these games, each of the n players must choose one and only one of the r alternatives. This value can be used to determine a player’s “a priori” value in such a game. In this paper, we show that the value has a consistency property similar to the “consistency” for TU games in Hart/Mas-Colell [1989] and we present a set of axioms (including consistency) which characterizes this value.  The games considered in this paper differ from the multi-choice games considered by Hsiao and Raghavan [1993]. They consider games in which the actions of the players are ordered in the sense that, if i >j, then action i carries more “weight” than action j.  These games also differ from partition function games in that the worth of a coalition depends not only on the partitioning of the players but also on the action chosen by each subset of the partition. Received: April 1994/final version: June 1999     

Reliability analysis of complex communication systems

This paper deals with a first-come, first-served (FCFS) queueing model to analyze the asymptotic behavior of a heterogeneous finite-source communication system with a single processor. Each source and the processor are assumed to operate in independent random environments, allowing the arrival and service processes to be Markov-modulated ones. Each message is characterized by its own exponentially distributed source and processing time with parameter, depending on the state of the corresponding environment, that is, the arrival and service rates are subject to random fluctuations. Assuming that the arrival rates of the messages are many times greater than their service rates (“fast” arrival), it is shown that the time to the first system failure converges in distribution, under appropriate norming, to an exponentially distributed random variable. Some simple examples are considered to illustrate the effectiveness of the method proposed by comparing the approximate results to the exact ones. Supported by the Hungarian National Foundation for Scientific Research (grant No. OTKA T14974/95). Proceedings of the Seminar on Stability Problems for Stochastic Models, Vologda, Russia, 1998, Part II.     

Elastic waveguides: history and the state of the art. II

In this paper, the normal modes of an elastic rectangular waveguide are analyzed. We retrace the key aspects of the almost 150-year history of this problem. Using the superposition method, we have obtained an analytical solution of the problem for four types of symmetry of the wave field. In addition, we have established important differences of the dispersion characteristics of normal modes in a rectangle from the Rayleigh–Lamb modes for an infinite plate and the Pochhammer–Chree modes for a cylinder. We give also an estimate of a series of approximate theories for a rectangular waveguide.

The numerical interpretation of the results of analysis is however necessary, and it is a degree of perfection which it would be very important to give to every application of analysis to the natural sciences. So long as it is not obtained, the solutions may be said to remain incomplete and useless, and the truth which it is proposed to discover is no less hidden in the formulas of analysis than it was in the physical problem itself.

                             J. Fourier [28, Sec. 13]

     

Tail index estimation for heavy tails: accommodation of bias in the excesses over a high threshold

In statistics of extremes, inference is often based on the excesses over a high random threshold. Those excesses are approximately distributed as the set of order statistics associated to a sample from a generalized Pareto model. We then get the so-called “maximum likelihood” estimators of the tail index γ. In this paper, we are interested in the derivation of the asymptotic distributional properties of a similar “maximum likelihood” estimator of a positive tail index γ, based also on the excesses over a high random threshold, but with a trial of accommodation of bias in the Pareto model underlying those excesses. We next proceed to an asymptotic comparison of the two estimators at their optimal levels. An illustration of the finite sample behaviour of the estimators is provided through a small-scale Monte Carlo simulation study. Research partially supported by FCT/POCTI and POCI/FEDER.     

Relative impatience determines preference between contract bargaining and repeated bargaining

In this paper we consider the effect of the `impatience ratio' I (of the worker discount factor to the firm discount factor) on the preferences of the players between two bargaining schemes in an asymmetric information wage bargaining context. The firm has private information about the worker's value and the worker makes wage demands. In the contact bargaining scheme, a wage demand which is accepted in one period is binding for all future periods (and hence the bargaining ends after acceptance of a wage demand). In the repeated bargaining scheme, the parties continue to bargain irrespective of whether the worker has been hired or not, and any accepted wage demand is only valid for the period in which it was accepted. We establish the following results under the assumption that the worker's value is uniformly distributed on an interval: When the firm is more patient than the worker (I<1) both parties prefer contract bargaining, and when the worker is more patient than the firm (I >1) both prefer repeated bargaining. For any value of I, the preferred type of bargaining gives the lower unemployment.  The work of Bae has already shown that when players are equally patient (I=1) the players are indifferent between the two schemes, regardless of the distribution of the worker's value. This paper shows that Bae's indifference result (Bae, 1991) cannot be extended to unequally patient players. Received: December 1996/Final version: October 1998     

Quitting games – An example

Quitting games are multi-player sequential games in which, at every stage, each player has the choice between continuing and quitting. The game ends as soon as at least one player chooses to quit; each player i then receives a payoff r _S ⁱ, which depends on the set S of players that did choose to quit. If the game never ends, the payoff to each player is zero.? We exhibit a four-player quitting game, where the “simplest” equilibrium is periodic with period two. We argue that this implies that all known methods to prove existence of an equilibrium payoff in multi-player stochastic games are therefore bound to fail in general, and provide some geometric intuition for this phenomenon. Received: October 2001     

Analysis of multiserver retrial queueing system: A martingale approach and an algorithm of solution

The paper studies a multiserver retrial queueing system withm servers. Arrival process is a point process with strictly stationary and ergodic increments. A customer arriving to the system occupies one of the free servers. If upon arrival all servers are busy, then the customer goes to the secondary queue, orbit, and after some random time retries more and more to occupy a server. A service time of each customer is exponentially distributed random variable with parameter μ₁. A time between retrials is exponentially distributed with parameter μ₂ for each customer. Using a martingale approach the paper provides an analysis of this system. The paper establishes the stability condition and studies a behavior of the limiting queue-length distributions as μ₂ increases to infinity. As μ₂→∞, the paper also proves the convergence of appropriate queue-length distributions to those of the associated “usual” multiserver queueing system without retrials. An algorithm for numerical solution of the equations, associated with the limiting queue-length distribution of retrial systems, is provided. AMS 2000 Subject classifications: 60K25 60H30.     

Scheduling strategies and long-range dependence

Consider a single server queue with unit service rate fed by an arrival process of the following form: sessions arrive at the times of a Poisson process of rate λ, with each session lasting for an independent integer time τ ⩾ 1, where P(τ = k) = p _k with p _k ~ αk ^−(1+α) L(k), where 1 < α < 2 and L(·) is a slowly varying function. Each session brings in work at unit rate while it is active. Thus the work brought in by each arrival is regularly varying, and, because 1 < α < 2, the arrival process of work is long-range dependent. Assume that the stability condition λE[τ] < 1 holds. By simple arguments we show that for any stationary nonpreemptive service policy at the queue, the stationary sojourn time of a typical session must stochastically dominate a regularly varying random variable having infinite mean; this is true even if the duration of a session is known at the time it arrives. On the other hand, we show that there exist causal stationary preemptive policies, which do not need knowledge of the session durations at the time of arrival, for which the stationary sojourn time of a typical session is stochastically dominated by a regularly varying random variable having finite mean. These results indicate that scheduling policies can have a significant influence on the extent to which long-range dependence in the arrivals influences the performance of communication networks. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Aging of spherical spin glasses

Sompolinski and Zippelius (1981) propose the study of dynamical systems whose invariant measures are the Gibbs measures for (hard to analyze) statistical physics models of interest. In the course of doing so, physicists often report of an “aging” phenomenon. For example, aging is expected to happen for the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model, a disordered mean-field model with a very complex phase transition in equilibrium at low temperature. We shall study the Langevin dynamics for a simplified spherical version of this model. The induced rotational symmetry of the spherical model reduces the dynamics in question to an N-dimensional coupled system of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes whose random drift parameters are the eigenvalues of certain random matrices. We obtain the limiting dynamics for N approaching infinity and by analyzing its long time behavior, explain what is aging (mathematically speaking), what causes this phenomenon, and what is its relationship with the phase transition of the corresponding equilibrium invariant measures. Received: 8 July 1999 / Revised version: 2 June 2000 / Published online: 6 April 2001     

AN M/G/1 RETRIAL QUEUE WITH SECOND MULTI-OPTIONAL SERVICE, FEEDBACK AND UNRELIABLE SERVER

An M/G/1 retrial queue with two-phase service and feedback is studied in this paper, where the server is subject to starting failures and breakdowns during service. Primary customers get in the system according to a Poisson process, and they will receive service immediately if the server is available upon arrival. Otherwise, they will enter a retrial orbit and are queued in the orbit in accordance with a first-come-first-served （FCFS） discipline. Customers are allowed to balk and renege at particular times. All customers demand the first “essential” service, whereas only some of them demand the second “multi-optional” service. It is assumed that the retrial time, service time and repair time of the server are all arbitrarily distributed. The necessary and sufficient condition for the system stability is derived. Using a supplementary variable method, the steady-state solutions for some queueing and reliability measures of the system are obtained.     

On the convergence of the random arrival rule in large claims problems

We study the behavior of the random arrival rule in claims problems with a large number of claimants. We assume that the amount to divide is not too “small” compared with total claims, and each claim is not too “large” compared with any other positive claims. Then, the random arrival rule behaves like the proportional rule as the number of claimants increases. We are grateful to Yuki Funaki, William Thomson, and three referees for their comments. This work was supported by the Brain Korea 21 Project in 2003     

On the strategic origin of Brownian motion in finance

This paper is concerned with the strategic use of a private information on the stock market. A repeated auction model is used to analyze the evolution of the price system on a market with asymmetric information.  The model turns out to be a zero-sum repeated game with one-sided information, as introduced by Aumann and Maschler.  The stochastic evolution of the price system can be explicitly computed in the n times repeated case. As n grows to ∞, this process tends to a continuous time martingale related to a Brownian Motion.  This paper provides in this way an endogenous justification for the appearance of Brownian Motion in Finance theory. Received: February 2002     

Multiple levels of symmetry breaking

In the previous paper in this volume we have studied the p-spin interaction model just below the critical temperature, and we have rigorously proved several aspects of the physicists prediction that this model exhibits “one level of symmetry breaking”. In the present paper we show how to construct systems that exhibit an arbitrarily large, but finite number of “levels of symmetry-breaking”. As the temperature decreases, such systems exhibit many phase transitions, as the structure of the overlaps gains complexity. This phenomenon does not seem to have been described previously, even in the physics literature. Received: 15 January 1998 / Revised version: 10 November 1999 / Published online: 21 June 2000     

Analyzing the finite buffer batch arrival queue under Markovian service process: GIX/MSP/1/N

We consider a batch arrival finite buffer single server queue with inter-batch arrival times are generally distributed and arrivals occur in batches of random size. The service process is correlated and its structure is presented through Markovian service process (MSP). The model is analyzed for two possible customer rejection strategies: partial batch rejection and total batch rejection policy. We obtain steady-state distribution at pre-arrival and arbitrary epochs along with some important performance measures, like probabilities of blocking the first, an arbitrary, and the last customer of a batch, average number of customers in the system, and the mean waiting times in the system. Some numerical results have been presented graphically to show the effect of model parameters on the performance measures. The model has potential application in the area of computer networks, telecommunication systems, manufacturing system design, etc.      

Negotiation-proof Nash equilibrium

This paper defines “negotiation-proof Nash equilibrium', a notion that applies to environments where players can negotiate openly and directly prior to the play of a noncooperative game. It recognizes the possibility that a group of self-interested players may choose, voluntarily and without binding agreement, to coordinate their choice of strategies and make joint objections; moreover, it takes the perfect foresight of rational players fully into account. The merit of the notion of negotiation-proof Nash equilibrium is twofold: (1) It offers a way to rectify the nestedness assumption and myopia embedded in the notion of coalition-proof Nash equilibrium. (2) The negotiation process is formalized by a “graph”, which serves as a natural extension to the approach that models preplay communication by an extensive game. Received: October 1998/Final version: May 2000     

Asymptotic independence of maximum waiting times for increasing alphabet

For everyk≥1 consider the waiting time until each pattern of lengthk over a fixed alphabet of sizen appears at least once in an infinite sequence of independent, uniformly distributed random letters. Lettingn→∞ we determine the limiting finite dimensional joint distributions of these waiting times after suitable normalization and provide an estimate for the rate of convergence. It will turn out that these waiting times are getting independent. Research supported by the Hungarian National Foundation for Scientific Research, Grant No. 1905.     

On the stability of retrial queues

We consider the following Type of problems. Calls arrive at a queue of capacity K (which is called the primary queue), and attempt to get served by a single server. If upon arrival, the queue is full and the server is busy, the new arriving call moves into an infinite capacity orbit, from which it makes new attempts to reach the primary queue, until it finds it non-full (or it finds the server idle). If the queue is not full upon arrival, then the call (customer) waits in line, and will be served according to the FIFO order. If λ is the arrival rate (average number per time unit) of calls and μ is one over the expected service time in the facility, it is well known that μ > λ is not always sufficient for stability. The aim of this paper is to provide general conditions under which it is a sufficient condition. In particular, (i) we derive conditions for Harris ergodicity and obtain bounds for the rate of convergence to the steady state and large deviations results, in the case that the inter-arrival times, retrial times and service times are independent i.i.d. sequences and the retrial times are exponentially distributed; (ii) we establish conditions for strong coupling convergence to a stationary regime when either service times are general stationary ergodic (no independence assumption), and inter-arrival and retrial times are i.i.d. exponentially distributed; or when inter-arrival times are general stationary ergodic, and service and retrial times are i.i.d. exponentially distributed; (iii) we obtain conditions for the existence of uniform exponential bounds of the queue length process under some rather broad conditions on the retrial process. We finally present conditions for boundedness in distribution for the case of nonpatient (or non persistent) customers. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Polynomial Method for Random Matrices

We define a class of “algebraic” random matrices. These are random matrices for which the Stieltjes transform of the limiting eigenvalue distribution function is algebraic, i.e., it satisfies a (bivariate) polynomial equation. The Wigner and Wishart matrices whose limiting eigenvalue distributions are given by the semicircle law and the Marčenko–Pastur law are special cases. Algebraicity of a random matrix sequence is shown to act as a certificate of the computability of the limiting eigenvalue density function. The limiting moments of algebraic random matrix sequences, when they exist, are shown to satisfy a finite depth linear recursion so that they may often be efficiently enumerated in closed form. In this article, we develop the mathematics of the polynomial method which allows us to describe the class of algebraic matrices by its generators and map the constructive approach we employ when proving algebraicity into a software implementation that is available for download in the form of the RMTool random matrix “calculator” package. Our characterization of the closure of algebraic probability distributions under free additive and multiplicative convolution operations allows us to simultaneously establish a framework for computational (noncommutative) “free probability” theory. We hope that the tools developed allow researchers to finally harness the power of infinite random matrix theory.     

Two renewal theorems for general random walks tending to infinity

Summary. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of moments of the first passage time of a random walk S _n into [x, ∞) for fixed x≧ 0, and the last exit time of the walk from (−∞, x], are given under the condition that S _n →∞ a.s. The methods, which are quite different from those applied in the previously studied case of a positive mean for the increments of S _n , are further developed to obtain the “order of magnitude” as x→∞ of the moments of the first passage and last exit times, when these are finite. A number of other conditions of interest in renewal theory are also discussed, and some results for the first time for which the random walk remains above the level x on K consecutive occasions, which has applications in option pricing, are given. Received: 18 September 1995/In revised form: 28 February 1996