人口结构变动对中国能源消费碳排放的影响——基于城镇化和居民消费视角

本文通过引入城镇化及居民消费等因素拓展LMDI模型,解构中国能源消费碳排放变动为碳排放因子、能源强度、消费抑制因子、城镇化、居民消费和人口规模六大效应,并探讨上述六种效应变动对中国能源消费碳排放量变动的贡献率及其作用机理。然后,选择中国30个省份,2003-2012年的面板数据实证分析人口结构变动对区域能源消费碳排放量变动及其分解效应的影响。结果表明:2003 2012年中国碳排放总量增加42.1167亿吨,消费抑制因子效应、城镇化效应、居民消费效应和人口规模效应对碳排放量的影响呈现为正效应,而碳排放因子效应和能源强度效应对碳排放量的影响整体上呈现为负效应,并且居民消费效应对碳排放量变动的影响最大。人口城镇化已成为影响中国碳排放量变动的主要人口因素。较之中、西部地区,东部地区的人口规模效应明显较高,但其能源强度效应则相反,中部地区碳排放因子效应明显高于东、西部地区。现阶段,人口年龄结构、人口教育结构和人口职业结构变动减缓了中国碳排放量的增长,而人口城乡结构、区域经济水平和人口规模变动的影响方向则相反,最后,人口性别结构变动对碳排放量变动无显著地影响。     

CO2 emissions trading planning in combined heat and power production via multi-period stochastic optimization

The EU emissions trading scheme (ETS) taking effect in 2005 covers CO₂ emissions from specific large-scale industrial activities and combustion installations. A large number of existing and potential future combined heat and power (CHP) installations are subject to ETS and targeted for emissions reduction. CHP production is an important technology for efficient and clean provision of energy because of its superior carbon efficiency. The proper planning of emissions trading can help its potential into full play, making it become a true “winning technology” under ETS. Fuel mix or fuel switch will be the reasonable choices for fossil fuel based CHP producers to achieve their emissions targets at the lowest possible cost. In this paper we formulate CO₂ emissions trading planning of a CHP producer as a multi-period stochastic optimization problem and propose a stochastic simulation and coordination approach for considering the risk attitude of the producer, penalty for excessive emissions, and the confidence interval for emission estimates. In test runs with a realistic CHP production model, the proposed solution approach demonstrates good trading efficiency in terms of profit-to-turnover ratio. Considering the confidence interval for emission estimates can help the producer to reduce the transaction costs in emissions trading. Comparisons between fuel switch and fuel mix strategies show that fuel mix can provide good tradeoff between profit-making and emissions reduction.     

基于STIRPAT模型的我国制造业碳排放影响因素研究

本文采用岭估计法和STIRPAT模型,定量分析了人口、财富和技术因素对我国制造业碳排放的影响,认为人口和财富因素对我国制造业碳排放存在正向作用,影响系数值分别为0.529和0.2565;技术因素有负向作用,其影响系数为-0.0965。构建了引入人口和财富二次方项的STIRPAT模型,二次方项的系数都为正,说明环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线不适用于我国目前制造业碳排放,即我国制造业碳排放短期内不会出现拐点。最后给出了相应的对策建议。     

A new distributionally robust p-hub median problem with uncertain carbon emissions and its tractable approximation method

The p-hub median problem is to determine the optimal location for p hubs and assign the remaining nodes to hubs so as to minimize the total transportation costs. Under the carbon cap-and-trade policy, we study this problem by addressing the uncertain carbon emissions from the transportation, where the probability distributions of the uncertain carbon emissions are only partially available. A novel distributionally robust optimization model with the ambiguous chance constraint is developed for the uncapacitated single allocation p-hub median problem. The proposed distributionally robust optimization problem is a semi-infinite chance-constrained optimization model, which is computationally intractable for general ambiguity sets. To solve this hard optimization model, we discuss the safe approximation to the ambiguous chance constraint in the following two types of ambiguity sets. The first ambiguity set includes the probability distributions with the bounded perturbations with zero means. In this case, we can turn the ambiguous chance constraint into its computable form based on tractable approximation method. The second ambiguity set is the family of Gaussian perturbations with partial knowledge of expectations and variances. Under this situation, we obtain the deterministic equivalent form of the ambiguous chance constraint. Finally, we validate the proposed optimization model via a case study from Southeast Asia and CAB data set. The numerical experiments indicate that the optimal solutions depend heavily on the distribution information of carbon emissions. In addition, the comparison with the classical robust optimization method shows that the proposed distributionally robust optimization method can avoid over-conservative solutions by incorporating partial probability distribution information. Compared with the stochastic optimization method, the proposed method pays a small price to depict the uncertainty of probability distribution. Compared with the deterministic model, the proposed method generates the new robust optimal solution under uncertain carbon emissions.     

The long-term impact of GHG reduction policies on global trade: A case study for the petrochemical industry

A systems engineering model has been developed for the global petrochemical industry, named FREAK (FoReign trade Effect Assessment Kit). FREAK has been developed for the analysis of the impact of CO₂ taxes on the international trade and the global production structure. A life cycle approach has been applied for 50 petrochemical products and a broad range of emission reduction strategies have been considered. The scope of the policies has been varied (which countries apply the tax) and the policy ambition has been varied (the tax level). The results show that the regional distribution of the petrochemical production will not change significantly in case global policies are introduced. However, the regional distribution will change significantly if only a limited number of industrialised countries introduce a tax. The regional impact of such a tax depends on the carbon accounting approach for intermediate petrochemical products trade. The impacts can even be positive for the industry within the policy region. The techno-economic potential for emission mitigation is significant, even from a global perspective. The physical production volume increases threefold between 1995 and 2025. In the base case (BC) without policies, emissions increase by 65% to 970 Mt CO₂ in 2025. Global greenhouse gas (GHG) policies could halve these emissions. A 20% reduction (approximately 200 Mt) can be achieved in case developing countries and oil exporting countries do not participate in emission reduction.     

Local air pollutant emission reduction and ancillary carbon benefits of SO2 control policies: Application of AIM/CGE model to China

While a great deal of literature has been published in recent years on the ancillary benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation (e.g., reductions in local air pollution), less attention has been focused on the climate benefits of local air pollution strategies themselves. Local air pollution is, however, a more immediate issue now faced by developing countries. This study assesses the impacts on local air pollutant emission reduction and ancillary CO₂ emission reduction of SO₂ control policies in China, such as a sulphur tax, SO₂ total emissions control (TEC), and improvement of energy efficiency, based on the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)/Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) country model. The simulation period is from 1997 to 2020. Major conclusions include the following: an SO₂ emission cap will help to control SO₂ emissions, but will result in a large GDP loss; the role of a SO₂ emission tax at the present level is very limited; and an ancillary carbon reduction benefit can be achieved through the introduction of SO₂ control policies in China.     

基于“黑箱”问题的政府碳排放调控政策设计及影响分析

本文在低碳经济背景下,针对我国制造企业生产和碳排放现状,在设定经济发展速度所决定的制造企业限额碳排放约束下,构建了基于“黑箱”问题的碳排放量-环境政策模型,研究政府如何制定碳税和补贴相结合的复合调控政策以控制企业的碳排放量。通过数值仿真结果,分析企业产量、产品价格与调控政策之间的关系,得出结论:基于“黑箱”问题的碳排放量-环境政策能够在降低碳排放量的同时维持企业的发展,单位碳税和超标碳排放量并不是一定的线性关系,但是总趋势可以看出,超标的碳排放量与单位碳税是正向关系;不同情境下的单一制造企业或不同情境下的多个制造企业的单位碳税和补贴不同,政府可以设置差异化碳税和补贴;碳税和补贴的变动对产品价格的变化幅度在-1%和1.5%之间,说明可以在降低碳排放量和满足生产量的同时使现实生活中产品的价格保持基本稳定。     

基于“黑箱”问题的政府碳排放调控政策设计及影响分析

本文在低碳经济背景下,针对我国制造企业生产和碳排放现状,在设定经济发展速度所决定的制造企业限额碳排放约束下,构建了基于“黑箱”问题的碳排放量-环境政策模型,研究政府如何制定碳税和补贴相结合的复合调控政策以控制企业的碳排放量。通过数值仿真结果,分析企业产量、产品价格与调控政策之间的关系,得出结论:基于“黑箱”问题的碳排放量-环境政策能够在降低碳排放量的同时维持企业的发展,单位碳税和超标碳排放量并不是一定的线性关系,但是总趋势可以看出,超标的碳排放量与单位碳税是正向关系;不同情境下的单一制造企业或不同情境下的多个制造企业的单位碳税和补贴不同,政府可以设置差异化碳税和补贴;碳税和补贴的变动对产品价格的变化幅度在-1%和1.5%之间,说明可以在降低碳排放量和满足生产量的同时使现实生活中产品的价格保持基本稳定。     

Energy and Climate Policy Analysis with the Hybrid Bottom-Up Computable General Equilibrium Model SCREEN: The Case of the Swiss CO2 Act

This paper shows how bottom-up activity analyses within a dynamic computable general equilibrium framework can be undertaken for the longer-term analysis of energy and climate policies using the model SCREEN [25]. In particular we demonstrate for the case of Switzerland how the impact of policy measures to reduce the carbon intensity of the energy sector can be assessed with such a model for various socio-economic and environmental dimensions (e.g., C0₂ emissions, GDP, employment, foreign exchange rate). The results can provide valuable insights for the appropriate design of energy or climate policies that allow for the targeted fostering of a more sustainable energy development.     

Pricing and equity in cross-regional green supply chains

This paper addresses the problem of the firms operating on cross-border or inter-regional platforms that are subject to the enforcement of each local government's carbon emissions regulatory policy, thus causing an imbalance in the sharing of the burden of the greening of the total supply chain. We introduce the concept of equity as the incentive mechanism to coordinate this green supply chain which is a function of the carbon emission permits and the revenue generated by the firms. Due to the complexity and imbalance in the original incentive mechanism to this problem, we provide a new equivalent supply chain network equilibrium model under elastic demand based on user equilibrium theory. We state the user equilibrium conditions and provide the equivalent formulation. We show the trade-offs under various carbon emissions regulatory policies. A product with higher price elasticity and carbon emission intensity not only hampers the firm from gaining a higher revenue, but it also reduces the equity of the system under an invariant emission regulatory policy.     

考虑消费者低碳偏好的供应链企业减排成本分摊比较研究

在低碳环境下,研究了单一制造商和单一零售商组成的两级低碳供应链成本分摊决策问题。考虑消费者具有环保意识,因此在购买产品时会考虑产品的碳排放。分别讨论了零售商参与减排成本分摊契约和双方Nash讨价还价成本分摊契约两种形式对碳减排、产品定价和整个供应链及其成员收益的影响。研究发现,在两种契约形式中,零售商都可以实现与制造商共同降低碳排放的目标,从而促进制造商提高碳减排率,提高供应链利润。但是基于Nash讨价还价方式的减排成本分摊契约的供应链绩效高于零售商成本分摊契约下的供应链绩效。同时消费者低碳偏好增加可以激励零售商更多地分摊减排成本,在此基础上,利用Nash讨价还价模型确定了零售商为制造商提供减排成本分摊的比例范围及其最优解。最后,通过数值分析验证了减排因子对不同决策结构的定价、零售商减排分摊比例、供应链利润等决策的影响。     

A model for long-term global air quality prediction and development of efficient control strategies in Turkey

This paper presents an environmental model which differentiates fuel consumption by sectoral use and allows for the reduction of emissions by coupling different emission control technologies to energy conversion and end-use activities. The model can be coupled to any energy model for forecasting air pollutant emissions and developing efficient emission control strategies. An energy-economy module has been integrated into the model and an equilibrium solution for the three-component model is obtained by utility maximization. Effects of emission limits on energy activities and on macroeconomical variables are investigated by restricting total pollutant emissions to the standards of the European Community. Numerical results are presented in the form of long-term forecasts focusing on the pollutants SO₂ and NO_x. Emission control measures, implied from the model results, are discussed revealing an efficient emission control strategy.     

A coupled multi-component approach for bacterial methane oxidation in landfill cover layers

Methane (CH₄), which has a 25 times higher global warming potential than carbon dioxide (CO₂), can be oxidated by methanotrophic bacteria into carbon dioxide and water. The biological oxidation of methane can be considered in the passive aftercare phase of landfills in order to reduce climate-damaging methane emissions. Methanotrophic bacteria are situated within the landfill cover layer and convert the harmful methane emissions arising from the degradation of organic waste to the less harmful carbon dioxide. Hence, the passive aftercare of landfills in terms of methane oxidation layers is an efficient method to reduce contributions to the greenhouse effect. To model the coupled processes during phase transition from methane to carbon dioxide, the well-known Theory of Porous Media (TPM) combined with the Mixture Theory has been used in order to develop a multi-component Finite Element calculation concept, see [1, 3]. The thermodynamic consistent model analyzes the relevant gas productions of methane, carbon dioxide and oxygen. The model also accounts for the driving phenomena of production, diffusion and advection. (© 2014 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

交通运输结构调整对碳排放的影响效应研究

近年来愈发严重的雾霾天气,使得交通运输行业的节能减排问题成为中国能源与环境战略研究领域的重中之重。因此,有必要研究交通运输结构调整对节能减排的影响效应。在考虑别国交通运输行业结构变化对我国交通节能减排示范效应以及数据可得性的基础上,本文利用1990~2011年公路、铁路、水运、民航客货周转量和交通碳排放量的数据,构建以中国、美国、欧盟以及日本为截面个体的面板数据模型。实证结果表明对于结构减排效应最明显的日本和欧盟来说,日本铁路周转量占比每提高1%,本国的单位周转量碳排放减少3.63%,欧盟水运周转量占比每提高1%,单位周转量碳排放将减少22.11%。而我国对应的这一数字分别为0.38%和0.06%,表明我国交通运输行业在结构性碳减排方面潜力很大。最后基于交通运输行业供给侧改革的背景,结合本文研究结果从客运和货运两方面提出了相关政策建议。     

The consequences of irreversibility on optimal intertemporal emission policies under uncertainty

This paper investigates how irreversibility affects optimal intertemporal emission policies when negative stock externalities exist. In particular it discusses the effect of irreversible emission, i.e., it concerns the physical issue whether it is possible to recollect pollutants that have been emitted or not. We depict our analysis with the greenhouse effect as a topical example and model the uncertainty with respect to the future evolution of the world’s temperature (i.e., the uncertain factor that determines the costs) as Itô-process with the drift provided by current carbon-dioxide emissions. We show analytically that irreversibility affects the optimal emission policy only if the future impact of today’s emissions is uncertain. Under uncertainty, irreversibility leads to a conservationist policy such that emissions are reduced at any level of environmental concentration of the pollutant. The level where stopping emissions is optimal decreases in the presence of irreversibility. Furthermore, the expected duration of fossil fuel use is derived. A numerical example which is calibrated to roughly reflect the global CO₂ problem illustrates the analytical findings.     

基于顾客低碳行为偏好的选址-路径-库存集成优化模型与算法

针对自愿减排驱动下的顾客低碳行为偏好对选址-路径-库存决策的影响进行研究。首先推导了顾客低碳行为偏好下的市场需求函数和价格函数,并构建了考虑单位产品碳排放量和经济成本的多目标选址-路径-库存优化模型,通过对多目标优化模型的求解可得碳排放量和经济成本间的Pareto解集。在此基础上,定义了碳配额税的概念,可得顾客低碳行为偏好和碳配额税下的总收益函数。最后通过数值分析给出了自愿减排和监管减排两种机制共同作用下的企业减排方案和灵敏度分析。     

Cholera dynamics with Bacteriophage infection: A mathematical study

Mathematical modeling of waterborne diseases, such as cholera, including a biological control using Bacteriophage viruses in the aquatic reservoirs is of great relevance in epidemiology. In this paper, our aim is twofold: at first, to understand the cholera dynamics in the region around a water body; secondly, to understand how the spread of Bacteriophage infection in the cholera bacterium V. cholerae controls the disease in the human population. For this purpose, we modify the model proposed by Codeço, for the spread of cholera infection in human population and the one proposed by Beretta and Kuang, for the spread of Bacteriophage infection in the bacteria population [1, 2]. We first discuss the feasibility and local asymptotic stability of all the possible equilibria of the proposed model. Further, in the numerical investigation, we have found that the parameter ϕ, called the phage adsorption rate, plays an important role. There is a critical value, ϕ_c, at which the model possess Hopf-bifurcation. For lower values than ϕ_c, the equilibrium E^* is unstable and periodic solutions are observed, while above ϕ_c, the equilibrium E^* is locally asymptotically stable, and further shown to be also globally asymptotically stable. We investigate the effect of the various parameters on the dynamics of the infected humans by means of numerical simulations.     

Critical behavior in the time evolution of an earthquake model

A two-dimensional earthquake model which has two significant features is studied. In this model, the nucleation length is proportional to the final size of the earthquake and fault strength healing occurs at an exponential rate. The time evolution of the spatial average of the crust strength shows f^−ν fluctuations when the characteristic healing time τ is longer than a critical value τ_c. Furthermore we obtain a relation which is independent of the model parameters. Our results indicate that crust rigidity can be worked out from earthquake data statistics.     

中国碳排放变化的因素分解与减排路径研究

能源及其引致的碳排放等相关问题已经成为影响人类社会发展全局和全球政治经济格局的重大战略问题.中国是世界上最大的发展中国家,面临着更严峻的能源挑战.节约能源、大幅度改善能源效率是我国应对能源和气侯变化挑战的一条极其重要且有效途径.本文综合考量了能源结构、能源强度、能源效率及经济增长等4个因素对碳排放的影响,基于因素分解模型,应用LMDI分解方法对中国一次能源利用的CO2排放及碳排放强度变化进行了研究,研究发现二氧化碳排放增加主要是由于经济增长、人口规模扩大引起的.在此基础上提出了碳减排的政策建议.     

An efficient linear model and optimisation algorithm for multi-site combined heat and power production

Combined heat and power (CHP) production is an important energy production technology which can help to improve the efficiency of energy production and to reduce the emission of CO₂. Cost-efficient operation of a CHP system can be planned using an optimisation model based on hourly load forecasts. A long-term planning model decomposes into hourly models, which can be formulated as linear programming (LP) problems. Such problems can be solved efficiently using the specialized Power Simplex algorithm. However, Power Simplex can only manage one heat and one power balance. Since heat cannot be transported over long distances, Power Simplex applies only for local CHP planning.In this paper we formulate the hourly multi-site CHP planning problem with multiple heat balances as an LP model with a special structure. We then develop the Extended Power Simplex (EPS) algorithm for solving such models efficiently. Even though the problem can be quite large as the number of demand sites increases, EPS demonstrates very good efficiency. In test runs with realistic models, EPS is from 29 to 85 times faster than an efficient sparse Simplex code using the product form of inverse (PFI). Furthermore, the relative efficiency of EPS improves as the problem size grows.