Moments of the asset price for the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model

In this paper, we derive closed-form formulas for moments of the asset price in the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BN–S) stochastic volatility model. We also present similar results where the market is driven by a BN–S-type stochastic process. It is shown that in both cases the results depend on the cumulant transform of the background driving Lévy process for the models. In this paper, we have also obtain various approximate expressions for the expected value of the square-root process for the shifted asset price with respect to the BN–S model.     

Option pricing and hedging for optimized Lévy driven stochastic volatility models

This paper pays attention to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) based stochastic volatility models with marginal law given by Classical Tempered Stable (CTS) distribution and Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution, which are subclasses of infinite activity Lévy processes and are compared to finite activity Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BNS) model. They are applied to option pricing and hedging in capturing leptokurtic features in asset returns and clustering effect in volatility that are consistently observed phenomena in underlying asset dynamics. The analytical formula of option pricing can be obtained through use of characteristic functions and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) technique. Additionally, we introduce two hybrid optimization techniques such as hybrid Particle Swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm and hybrid Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm into parameters calibration schemes to improve the calibration quality for newly constructed models. Finally, we conduct experiments on Chinese emerging option markets to examine the performance of proposed models exploiting hybrid optimization techniques.     

Asymptotic power utility-based pricing and hedging

Kramkov and Sîrbu (Ann. Appl. Probab., 16:2140–2194, 2006; Stoch. Proc. Appl., 117:1606–1620, 2017) have shown that first-order approximations of power utility-based prices and hedging strategies for a small number of claims can be computed by solving a mean-variance hedging problem under a specific equivalent martingale measure and relative to a suitable numeraire. For power utilities, we propose an alternative representation that avoids the change of numeraire. More specifically, we characterize the relevant quantities using semimartingale characteristics similarly as in ?erný and Kallsen (Ann. Probab., 35:1479–1531, 2007) for mean-variance hedging. These results are illustrated by applying them to exponential Lévy processes and stochastic volatility models of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard type (J. R. Stat. Soc. B, 63:167–241, 2001). We find that asymptotic utility-based hedges are virtually independent of the investor’s risk aversion. Moreover, the price adjustments compared to the Black–Scholes model turn out to be almost linear in the investor’s risk aversion, and surprisingly small unless very high levels of risk aversion are considered.     

A multi-stage financial hedging approach for the procurement of manufacturing materials

This paper addresses the problem of mitigating procurement risk that arises from volatile commodity prices by proposing a hedging strategy within a multi-stage time frame. The proposed multi-stage hedging strategy requires a commodity futures position to be correctly initialised and rebalanced with adequate volumes of short/long positions, so as to reduce the volatility in the total procurement cost that would otherwise be generated by varying commodity spot prices. The novelty in the approach is the introduction of the rebalancing of commodity futures position at defined intermediate stages. To obtain an efficient or near optimal multi-stage hedging strategy, a discrete-time stochastic control model (DSCM) is developed. Numerical experiments and Monte Carlo simulation are used to show that the proposed multi-stage hedging strategy compares favourably with the minimal-variance hedge and the one-stage hedge. A close-form optimal solution is also presented for the case when procurement volume and price are independent.     

On the explicit evaluation of the Geometric Asian options in stochastic volatility models with jumps

In the present paper we provide a semiexplicit valuation formula for Geometric Asian options, with fixed and floating strike under continuous monitoring, when the underlying stock price process exhibits both stochastic volatility and jumps. More precisely, we shall work in the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BNS) model framework. We shall provide some numerical illustrations of the results obtained.     

Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes in Hilbert space with non-Gaussian stochastic volatility

We propose a non-Gaussian operator-valued extension of the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility dynamics, defined as the square-root of an operator-valued Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with Lévy noise and bounded drift. We derive conditions for the positive definiteness of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, where in particular we must restrict to operator-valued Lévy processes with “non-decreasing paths”. It turns out that the volatility model allows for an explicit calculation of its characteristic function, showing an affine structure. We introduce another Hilbert space-valued Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with Wiener noise perturbed by this class of stochastic volatility dynamics. Under a strong commutativity condition between the covariance operator of the Wiener process and the stochastic volatility, we can derive an analytical expression for the characteristic functional of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process perturbed by stochastic volatility if the noises are independent. The case of operator-valued compound Poisson processes as driving noise in the volatility is discussed as a particular example of interest. We apply our results to futures prices in commodity markets, where we discuss our proposed stochastic volatility model in light of ambit fields.     

On the Esscher transforms and other equivalent martingale measures for Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility models with jumps

We compute and then discuss the Esscher martingale transform for exponential processes, the Esscher martingale transform for linear processes, the minimal martingale measure, the class of structure preserving martingale measures, and the minimum entropy martingale measure for stochastic volatility models of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type as introduced by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard. We show that in the model with leverage, with jumps both in the volatility and in the returns, all those measures are different, whereas in the model without leverage, with jumps in the volatility only and a continuous return process, several measures coincide, some simplifications can be made and the results are more explicit. We illustrate our results with parametric examples used in the literature.     

基于便利收益的商品期货套期保值策略研究

依据便利收益是商品现货与期货长期均衡关系的主要影响因素,研究商品便利收益对商品期货套期保值策略的影响。通过求解最大化期望效用的套期保值决策模型,得到了最优套期保值比率的封闭解,并且提出了以便利收益为修正因子的ECT-GARCH模型,同时选取2005年01月到2013年10月期间沪铝现货和期货数据进行实证分析。研究发现:便利收益的波动性与套期保值比率呈负相关,在套期保值比率估计精度和套期保值绩效方面,ECT-GARCH模型均优于B-GARCH模型和ECM-GARCH模型。     

VaR测度下的风险对冲策略研究

本文分别在正态分布和任意分布设定下讨论最小在险价值(VaR)的风险对冲问题。在正态分布设定下,本文深入讨论最小方差对冲比率和最小VaR对冲比率的性质,并得出最小VaR对冲策略下组合收益率的均值和方差大于最小方差策略下组合收益率的均值和方差。在任意分布设定下,本文构建一种新的VaR对冲模型,该模型引入非参数核估计方法对VaR进行估计,然后基于VaR核估计量建立风险对冲问题,实现风险估计与风险对冲同步进行。实证结果非常稳健地表明,不做任何分布假设下的核估计法得到的风险对冲效果优于最小方差对冲策略和正态分布设定下的最小VaR对冲策略。     

New tests for jumps in semimartingale models

In this paper we propose a test to determine whether jumps are present in a discretely sampled process or not. We use the concept of truncated power variation to construct our test statistics for (i) semimartingale models and (ii) semimartingale models with noise. The test statistics diverge to infinity if jumps are present and have a normal distribution otherwise. Our method is valid (under very weak assumptions) for all semimartingales with absolute continuous characteristics and rather general model for the noise process. We finally implement the test and present the simulation results. Our simulations suggest that for semimartingale models the new test is much more powerful than tests proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (J Fin Econ 4:1–30, 2006) and Aït-Sahalia and Jacod (Ann Stat 371:184–222, 2009).     

Risk Minimization for a Filtering Micromovement Model of Asset Price

Abstract

The classical option hedging problems have mostly been studied under continuous-time or equally spaced discrete-time models, which ignore two important components in the actual price: random trading times and market microstructure noise. In this paper, we study optimal hedging strategies for European derivatives based on a filtering micromovement model of asset prices with the two commonly ignored characteristics. We employ the local risk-minimization criterion to develop optimal hedging strategies under full information. Then, we project the hedging strategies on the observed information to obtain hedging strategies under partial information. Furthermore, we develop a related nonlinear filtering technique under the minimal martingale measure for the computation of such hedging strategies.     

A Nonhomogeneous Mean-Field Linear-Quadratic Optimal Control Problem and Application

In this paper, a mean-variance hedging portfolio problem is considered for mean-field stochastic differential equations. The original problem can be reformulated as a nonhomogeneous linear-quadratic optimal control problem with mean-field type. By virtue of the classical completion of squares, the optimal control is obtained in the form of state feedback. We use the theoretical results to the mean-variance hedging portfolio problem and get the optimal portfolio strategy.

     

期权组合最优套期保值模型及实证研究

根据实际投资中投资者可以选择不同到期日、不同敲定价格的期权组合进行套期保值的现实,本文建立了二次效用函数下期权组合最优动态套期保值模型,证明了该模型最优解存在的唯一性,并在协方差矩阵可逆和不可逆两种情形下分别给出了期权最优头寸的显式表达式。在50ETF价格先升后降、先降后升、下降和上升四种情形下,对上证50ETF期权的多种期权组合套期保值问题进行实证分析。研究结果表明:不同到期日不同敲定价格的看跌期权组合具有较好的套期保值效果。本文的研究为选择期权组合进行套期保值和解决展期期权套期保值问题提供了借鉴。     

基于整体风险最小的多阶段期货套期保值研究

对多阶段套期保值建立模型,综合考虑整体风险,以最终现货与期货的收益的方差建立目标函数.以多阶段整体风险最小为目标函数,考虑资金限制,建立套期保值模型来解决多阶段套期保值的套期保值比率问题.以资金限制为约束,避免了套期保值者因资金短缺而强制平仓造成的套保失败.利用差分算法和罚函数法进行求解.实证结果表明,多阶段的风险比逐个单阶段求得的风险明显的小,且整体套保的单位风险收益比单阶段的大很多,说明多阶段比单阶段能较好的实现套期保值.     

Derivative-free Greeks for the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility model

We derive derivative-free formulas for the Delta and other Greeks of options written on an asset modelled by a geometric Brownian motion with stochastic volatility of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard type. The method applies the Malliavin calculus in Wiener space which moves differentiation of the payoff function of the option to a random weight function. Our method paves the way for simple Monte Carlo approaches, illustrated by several numerical examples.     

Mean‐variance hedging with basis risk

Basis risk arises in a number of financial and insurance risk management problems when the hedging assets do not perfectly match the underlying asset in a hedging program. Notable examples in insurance include the hedging for longevity risks, weather index–based insurance products, variable annuities, etc. In the presence of basis risk, a perfect hedging is impossible, and in this paper, we adopt a mean‐variance criterion to strike a balance between the expected hedging error and its variability. Under a time‐dependent diffusion model setup, explicit optimal solutions are derived for the hedging target being either a European option or a forward contract. The solutions are obtained by a delicate application of the linear quadratic control theory, the method of backward stochastic differential equation, and Malliavin calculus. A numerical example is presented to illustrate our theoretical results and their interesting implications.     

Asymptotic behavior of maximum likelihood estimators in a branching diffusion model

In this paper the consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum-likelihood estimations for a super-critical branching diffusion model are obtained under certain conditions on its drift, variance and reproduction law. We proceeded by first studying the limit behavior of the Fisher information measure and related processes, and then verifying conditions established in Barndorff-Nielsen and Sørensen (Int stat Rev 62:133–165, 1994). This in turn uses the Martingale Law of Large Numbers as well as the Martingale Central Limit Theorem.     

Efficient Hedging and Pricing of Life Insurance Policies in a Jump-Diffusion Model

Abstract

This paper is devoted to the problem of hedging contingent claims in the framework of a two factors jump-diffusion model under initial budget constraint. We give explicit formulas for the so called efficient hedging. These results are applied for the pricing of equity linked-life insurance contracts.     

A Hybrid Model for Pricing and Hedging of Long-dated Bonds

Abstract

Long-dated fixed income securities play an important role in asset-liability management, in life insurance and in annuity businesses. This paper applies the benchmark approach, where the growth optimal portfolio (GOP) is employed as numéraire together with the real-world probability measure for pricing and hedging of long-dated bonds. It employs a time-dependent constant elasticity of variance model for the discounted GOP and takes stochastic interest rate risk into account. This results in a hybrid framework that models the stochastic dynamics of the GOP and the short rate simultaneously. We estimate and compare a variety of continuous-time models for short-term interest rates using non-parametric kernel-based estimation. The hybrid models remain highly tractable and fit reasonably well the observed dynamics of proxies of the GOP and interest rates. Our results involve closed-form expressions for bond prices and hedge ratios. Across all models under consideration we find that the hybrid model with the 3/2 dynamics for the interest rate provides the best fit to the data with respect to lowest prices and least expensive hedges.     

基于债券久期的国债期货套期保值模型分析

使用久期的方法在中国国债期货市场上进行套期保值是否有效?使用久期的方法研究国债期货套期保值的效率问题在国外已经很多,然而这种方法是否适合于目前中国的国债市场,相关研究还不多见,还有待进一步的证实.为此借鉴国外相关理论,采用比较研究的方法,以国债期货上市后2013年9月到2014年5月初,国债现货和国债期货的数据为样本,以基于久期的最优套期保值比率模型为主,其他模型为辅,比较出最优套期保值效率.研究结果表明,基于久期的套期保值方法在目前中国的国债市场效果一般.