Copula models for insurance claim numbers with excess zeros and time-dependence

This paper develops two copula models for fitting the insurance claim numbers with excess zeros and time-dependence. The joint distribution of the claims in two successive periods is modeled by a copula with discrete or continuous marginal distributions. The first model fits two successive claims by a bivariate copula with discrete marginal distributions. In the second model, a copula is used to model the random effects of the conjoint numbers of successive claims with continuous marginal distributions. Zero-inflated phenomenon is taken into account in the above copula models. The maximum likelihood is applied to estimate the parameters of the discrete copula model. A two-step procedure is proposed to estimate the parameters in the second model, with the first step to estimate the marginals, followed by the second step to estimate the unobserved random effect variables and the copula parameter. Simulations are performed to assess the proposed models and methodologies.     

Analysis of survivorship life insurance portfolios with stochastic rates of return

A general portfolio of survivorship life insurance contracts is studied in a stochastic rate of return environment with a dependent mortality model. Two methods are used to derive the first two moments of the prospective loss random variable. The first one is based on the individual loss random variables while the second one studies annual stochastic cash flows. The distribution function of the present value of future losses at a given valuation time is derived. For illustrative purposes, an AR(1) process is used to model the stochastic rates of return, and the future lifetimes of a couple are assumed to follow a copula model. The effects of the mortality dependence, the portfolio size and the policy type, as well as the impact of investment strategies on the riskiness of portfolios of survivorship life insurance policies are analyzed by means of moments and probability distributions.     

Soft car sequencing with colors: Lower bounds and optimality proofs

This paper is a study of the car sequencing problem, when feature spacing constraints are soft and colors of vehicles are taken into account. Both pseudo-polynomial algorithms and lower bounds are presented for parts of the problem or family of instances. With this set of lower bounds, we establish the optimality (up to the first non-trivial criteria) of 54% of best known solutions for the benchmark used for the Roadef Challenge 2005. We also prove that the optimal penalty for a single ratio constraint N/P can be computed in O(P) and that determining the feasibility of a car sequencing instance limited to a pair of simple ratio constraints can be achieved by dynamic programming. Finally, we propose a solving algorithm exploiting these results within a local search approach. To achieve this goal, a new meta-heuristic (star relinking) is introduced, designed for the optimization of an aggregation of criteria, when the optimization of each single criterion is a polynomial problem.     

Ruin measures for a compound Poisson risk model with dependence based on the Spearman copula and the exponential claim sizes

This paper is devoted to an extension to the classical compound risk model. We relax the independence assumption of claim amounts and interclaim times. The dependent structure between these random variables is described by the Spearman copula. We study the Laplace transform of the discounted penalty function and we give the explicit expression of it for the exponential claim size.     

Consumption,investment and life insurance strategies with heterogeneous discounting

In this paper we analyze how the optimal consumption, investment and life insurance rules are modified by the introduction of a class of time-inconsistent preferences. In particular, we account for the fact that an agent’s preferences evolve along the planning horizon according to her increasing concern about the bequest left to her descendants and about her welfare at retirement. To this end, we consider a stochastic continuous time model with random terminal time for an agent with a known distribution of lifetime under heterogeneous discounting. In order to obtain the time-consistent solution, we solve a non-standard dynamic programming equation. For the case of CRRA and CARA utility functions we compare the explicit solutions for the time-inconsistent and the time-consistent agent. The results are illustrated numerically.     

A ruin model with random income and dependence between claim sizes and claim intervals

In this paper,we consider a generalization of the classical ruin model,where the income is random and the distribution of the time between two claim occurrences depends on the previous claim size.This model is more appropriate than the classical ruin model.Explicit expression for the generating function of the Gerber-Shiu expected discounted penalty function are derived.A similar model is discussed.Finally,the result are showed by two examples.     

Optimal life insurance purchase,consumption and investment on a financial market with multi-dimensional diffusive terms

We introduce an extension to Merton's famous continuous time model of optimal consumption and investment, in the spirit of previous works by Pliska and Ye, to allow for a wage earner to have a random lifetime and to use a portion of the income to purchase life insurance in order to provide for his estate, while investing his savings in a financial market comprised of one risk-free security and an arbitrary number of risky securities driven by multi-dimensional Brownian motion. We then provide a detailed analysis of the optimal consumption, investment and insurance purchase strategies for the wage earner whose goal is to maximize the expected utility obtained from his family consumption, from the size of the estate in the event of premature death, and from the size of the estate at the time of retirement. We use dynamic programming methods to obtain explicit solutions for the case of discounted constant relative risk aversion utility functions and describe new analytical results which are presented together with the corresponding economic interpretations.     

Pricing general insurance in a reactive and competitive market

A simple parameterisation is introduced which represents the insurance market’s response to an insurer adopting a pricing strategy determined via optimal control theory. Claims are modelled using a lognormally distributed mean claim size rate, and the market average premium is determined via the expected value principle. If the insurer maximises its expected wealth then the resulting Bellman equation has a moving boundary in state space that determines when it is optimal to stop selling insurance. This stochastic optimisation problem is simplified by the introduction of a stopping time that prevents an insurer leaving and then re-entering the insurance market. Three finite difference schemes are used to verify the existence of a solution to the resulting Bellman equation when there is market reaction. All of the schemes use a front-fixing transformation. If the market reacts, then it is found that the optimal strategy is altered, in that premiums are raised if the strategy is of loss-leading type and lowered if it is optimal for the insurer to set a relatively high premium and sell little insurance.     

A Matlab-based rapid method for computing lattice-subspaces and vector sublattices of : Applications in portfolio insurance

This paper provides the construction of a powerful and efficient computational method, that translates Polyrakis algorithm [I.A. Polyrakis, Minimal lattice-subspaces, Trans. Am. Math. Soc. 351 (1999) 4183–4203, Theorem 3.19] for the calculation of lattice-subspaces and vector sublattices in . In the theory of finance, lattice-subspaces have been extensively used in order to provide a characterization of market structures in which the cost-minimizing portfolio is price-independent. Specifically, we apply our computational method in order to solve a cost minimization problem that ensures the minimum-cost insured portfolio.     

Dependent interest and transition rates in life insurance

For market consistent life insurance liabilities modelled with a multi-state Markov chain, it is of importance to consider the interest and transition rates as stochastic processes, for example in order to consider hedging possibilities of the risks, and for risk measurement. In the literature, this is usually done with an assumption of independence between the interest and transition rates. In this paper, it is shown how to valuate life insurance liabilities using affine processes for modelling dependent interest and transition rates. This approach leads to the introduction of so-called dependent forward rates. We propose a specific model for surrender modelling, and within this model the dependent forward rates are calculated, and the market value and the Solvency II capital requirement are examined for a simple savings contract.     

Risk aggregation and stochastic claims reserving in disability insurance

We consider a large, homogeneous portfolio of life or disability annuity policies. The policies are assumed to be independent conditional on an external stochastic process representing the economic–demographic environment. Using a conditional law of large numbers, we establish the connection between claims reserving and risk aggregation for large portfolios. Further, we derive a partial differential equation for moments of present values. Moreover, we show how statistical multi-factor intensity models can be approximated by one-factor models, which allows for solving the PDEs very efficiently. Finally, we give a numerical example where moments of present values of disability annuities are computed using finite-difference methods and Monte Carlo simulations.     

Pareto-optimal insurance contracts with premium budget and minimum charge constraints

In view of the fact that minimum charge and premium budget constraints are natural economic considerations in any risk-transfer between the insurance buyer and seller, this paper revisits the optimal insurance contract design problem in terms of Pareto optimality with imposing these practical constraints. Pareto optimal insurance contracts, with indemnity schedule and premium payment, are solved in the cases when the risk preferences of the buyer and seller are given by Value-at-Risk or Tail Value-at-Risk. The effect of our constraints and the relative bargaining powers of the buyer and seller on the Pareto optimal insurance contracts are highlighted. Numerical experiments are employed to further examine these effects for some given risk preferences.     

On a risk model with random incomes and dependence between claim sizes and claim intervals

In this paper, we construct a risk model with a dependence setting where there exists a specific structure among the time between two claim occurrences, premium sizes and claim sizes. Given that the premium size is exponentially distributed, both the Laplace transforms and defective renewal equations for the expected discounted penalty functions are obtained. Exact representations for the solutions of the defective renewal equations are derived through an associated compound geometric distribution. When the claims are subexponentially distributed, the asymptotic formulae for ruin probabilities are obtained. Finally, when the individual premium sizes have rational Laplace transforms, the Laplace transforms for the expected discounted penalty functions are obtained.     

On an inverse scattering problem for a class Dirac operator with discontinuous coefficient and nonlinear dependence on the spectral parameter in the boundary condition

On the positive semi‐infinite interval, we obtained a generalization of the Marchenko method for a Dirac equation system with a discontinuous coefficient and a quadratic polynomial on a spectral parameter in the boundary condition. In this connection, we use an new integral representation of the Jost solution of equation systems, which does not have a ‘triangular’ form. The scattering function of the problem is defined, and its properties are examined. The Marchenko‐type main equation is obtained, and it is shown that the potential is uniquely recovered in terms the scattering function. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling frequency and severity of claims with the zero-inflated generalized cluster-weighted models

To facilitate applications in general insurance, some extensions are proposed to cluster-weighted models (CWMs). First, we extend CWMs to have generalized cluster-weighted models (GCWMs) by allowing modeling of non-Gaussian distribution of the continuous covariates, as they frequently occur in insurance practice. Secondly, we introduce a zero-inflated extension of GCWM (ZI-GCWM) for modeling insurance claims data with excess zeros coming from heterogeneous sources. Additionally, we give two expectation–optimization (EM) algorithms for parameter estimation given in the proposed models. An appropriate simulation study shows that, for various settings and in contrast to the existing mixture-based approaches, both extended models perform well. Finally, a real data set based on French auto-mobile policies is used to illustrate the application of the proposed extensions.     

Gerber-Shiu analysis in a perturbed risk model with dependence between claim sizes and interclaim times

In this paper, we consider a compound Poisson risk model perturbed by a Brownian motion. We construct the bivariate cumulative distribution function of the claim size and interclaim time by Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern copula. The integro-differential equations and the Laplace transforms for the Gerber-Shiu functions are obtained. We also show that the Gerber-Shiu functions satisfy some defective renewal equations. For exponential claims, some explicit expressions are obtained, and numerical examples for the ruin probabilities are also given.     

On a risk model with stochastic premiums income and dependence between income and loss

Labbé and Sendova (2009) [9] consider a compound Poisson risk model with stochastic premiums income. In this paper, we extend their model by assuming that there exists a specific dependence structure among the claim sizes, interclaim times and premium sizes. Assume that the distributions of the premium sizes and interclaim times are controlled by the claim sizes. When the individual premium sizes are exponentially distributed, the Laplace transforms and defective renewal equations for the (Gerber-Shiu) discounted penalty functions are obtained. When the individual premium sizes have rational Laplace transforms, we show that the Laplace transforms for the discounted penalty functions can also be obtained.     

Multiplicity results for nonlinear periodic fourth order difference equations with parameter dependence and singularities

This paper is devoted to the study of nonlinear singular and non-singular fourth order difference equations coupled with periodic boundary value conditions. In the paper some existence and nonexistence results are given. The results are deduced from Krasnoselskii's fixed point theorems in cones. An exhaustive study of the Green's function related to a linear fourth order problem is done.     

Existence and structure of solutions for a class of optimal control systems with discounting arising in economic dynamics

We study the existence and a turnpike property of solutions of a discrete-time control system with discounting and with a compact metric space of states. In our recent work for this discrete-time optimal control system without discounting we establish the turnpike property and show that it is stable under perturbations of an objective function. In the present paper we show that this turnpike property together with its stability also hold for the system with discounting.