Detrended fluctuation analysis on spot and futures markets of West Texas Intermediate crude oil

In this paper, we study the auto-correlations and cross-correlations of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot and futures return series employing detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA). Scaling analysis shows that, for time scales smaller than a month, the auto-correlations and cross-correlations are persistent. For time scales larger than a month but smaller than a year, the correlations are anti-persistent, while, for time scales larger than a year, the series are neither auto-correlated nor cross-correlated, indicating the efficient operation of the crude oil markets. Moreover, for small time scales, the degree of short-term cross-correlations is higher than that of auto-correlations. Using the multifractal extension of DFA and DCCA, we find that, for small time scales, the correlations are strongly multifractal, while, for large time scales, the correlations are nearly monofractal. Analyzing the multifractality of shuffled and surrogated series, we find that both long-range correlations and fat-tail distributions make important contributions to the multifractality. Our results have important implications for market efficiency and asset pricing models.     

Long-term correlations and multifractal nature in the intertrade durations of a liquid Chinese stock and its warrant

The intertrade duration of equities is an important financial measure, characterizing trading activities; it is defined as the waiting time between successive trades of an equity. Using the ultrahigh-frequency data of a liquid Chinese stock and its associated warrant, we perform a comparative investigation of the statistical properties of their intertrade duration time series. The distributions of the two equities can be better described by the shifted power-law form than the Weibull form, and their scaled distributions do not collapse onto a single curve. Although the intertrade durations of the two equities have very different magnitude, their intraday patterns exhibit very similar shapes. Both detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and detrending moving average analysis (DMA) show that the 1 min intertrade duration time series of the two equities are strongly correlated. In addition, both multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) and multifractal detrending moving average analysis (MFDMA) unveil that the 1 min intertrade durations possess multifractal nature. However, the difference between the two singularity spectra of the two equities obtained from the MFDMA is much smaller than that from the MFDFA.     

Progress in physical properties of Chinese stock markets

In the past two decades, statistical physics was brought into the field of finance, applying new methods and concepts to financial time series and developing a new interdiscipline “econophysics”. In this review, we introduce several commonly used methods for stock time series in econophysics including distribution functions, correlation functions, detrended fluctuation analysis method, detrended moving average method, and multifractal analysis. Then based on these methods, we review some statistical properties of Chinese stock markets including scaling behavior, long-term correlations, cross-correlations, leverage effects, antileverage effects, and multifractality. Last, based on an agent-based model, we develop a new option pricing model — financial market model that shows a good agreement with the prices using real Shanghai Index data. This review is helpful for people to understand and research statistical physics of financial markets.     

Dynamics of bid–ask spread return and volatility of the Chinese stock market

The bid–ask spread is taken as an important measure of the financial market liquidity. In this article, we study the dynamics of the spread return and the spread volatility of four liquid stocks in the Chinese stock market, including the memory effect and the multifractal nature. By investigating the autocorrelation function and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), we find that the spread return is the lack of long-range memory, while the spread volatility is long-range time correlated. Besides, the spread volatilities of different stocks present long-range cross-correlations. Moreover, by applying the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA), the spread return is observed to possess a strong multifractality, which is similar to the dynamics of a variety of financial quantities. Different from the spread return, the spread volatility exhibits a weak multifractal nature.     

Non-linear characteristics and long-range correlations in Asian stock markets

We test several non-linear characteristics of Asian stock markets, which indicates the failure of efficient market hypothesis and shows the essence of fractal of the financial markets. In addition, by using the method of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to investigate the long range correlation of the volatility in the stock markets, we find that the crossover phenomena exist in the results of DFA. Further, in the region of small volatility, the scaling behavior is more complicated; in the region of large volatility, the scaling exponent is close to 0.5, which suggests the market is more efficient. All these results may indicate the possibility of characteristic multifractal scaling behaviors of the financial markets.     

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of the Chinese stock index futures market

Based on the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal spectrum analysis, this paper empirically studies the multifractal properties of the Chinese stock index futures market. Using a total of 2942 ten-minute closing prices, we find that the Chinese stock index futures returns exhibit long-range correlations and multifractality, making the single-scale index insufficient to describe the futures price fluctuations. Further, by comparing the original time series with the transformed time series through shuffling procedure and phase randomization procedure, we show the existence of two different sources of the multifractality for the Chinese stock index futures market. Our results suggest that the multifractality is mainly due to long-range correlations, although the fat-tailed probability distributions also contribute to such multifractal behaviour.     

Multifractal properties of Chinese stock market in Shanghai

In this article, we apply three methods of multifractal analysis, partition function method, singular spectrum method and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis method, to analyze the closing index fluctuations of Shanghai stock market during the past seven years. We have found that Shanghai stock market has weak multifractal features and there are long-range power-law correlations between index series. The shapes of singular spectrums do not change with time scales and their strengths weaken when the scales shorten. But when the orders of partition function increase, the strengths of multifractal increase, the singular spectrums become rougher and the general Hurst exponents decrease. These results provide solid and important values for further study on the dynamic mechanism of stock market price fluctuation.     

Multifractal analysis of the Korean agricultural market

We have studied the long-term memory effects of the Korean agricultural market using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method. In general, the return time series of various financial data, including stock indices, foreign exchange rates, and commodity prices, are uncorrelated in time, while the volatility time series are strongly correlated. However, we found that the return time series of Korean agricultural commodity prices are anti-correlated in time, while the volatility time series are correlated. The $n$-point correlations of time series were also examined, and it was found that a multifractal structure exists in Korean agricultural market prices.     

Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis in the MENA area

In this paper, we investigated multifractal cross-correlations qualitatively and quantitatively using a cross-correlation test and the Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis method (MF-DCCA) for markets in the MENA area. We used cross-correlation coefficients to measure the level of this correlation. The analysis concerns four stock market indices of Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan. The countries chosen are signatory of the Agadir agreement concerning the establishment of a free trade area comprising Arab Mediterranean countries. We computed the bivariate generalized Hurst exponent, Rényi exponent and spectrum of singularity for each pair of indices to measure quantitatively the cross-correlations. By analyzing the results, we found the existence of multifractal cross-correlations between all of these markets. We compared the spectrum width of these indices; we also found which pair of indices has a strong multifractal cross-correlation.     

Asymmetric multifractal scaling behavior in the Chinese stock market: Based on asymmetric MF-DFA

We utilized asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis in this study to examine the asymmetric multifractal scaling behavior of Chinese stock markets with uptrends or downtrends. Results show that the multifractality degree of Chinese stock markets with uptrends is stronger than that of Chinese stock markets with downtrends. Correlation asymmetries are more evident in large fluctuations than in small fluctuations. By discussing the source of asymmetric multifractality, we find that multifractality is related to long-range correlations when the market is going up, whereas it is related to fat-tailed distribution when the market is going down. The main source of asymmetric scaling behavior in the Shanghai stock market are long-range correlations, whereas that in the Shenzhen stock market is fat-tailed distribution. An analysis of the time-varying feature of scaling asymmetries shows that the evolution trends of these scaling asymmetries are similar in the two Chinese stock markets. Major financial and economical events may enhance scaling asymmetries.     

Crossover Phenomena in Detrended Fluctuation Analysis Used in Financial Markets

A systematic analysis of Shanghai and Japan stock indices for the period of Jan. 1984 to Dec. 2005 is performed. After stationarity is verified by ADF （Augmented Dickey-Fuller） test, the power spectrum of the data exhibits a power law decay as a whole characterized by 1/f^β processes with possible long range correlations. Subsequently, by using the method of detrended fluctuation analysis （DFA） of the general volatility in the stock markets, we find that the long-range correlations are occurred among the return series and the crossover phenomena exhibit in the results obviously.Further, Shanghai stock market shows long-range correlations in short time scale and shows short-range correlations in long time scale. Whereas, for Japan stock market, the data behaves oppositely absolutely. Last, we compare the varying of scale exponent in large volatility between two stock markets. All results obtained may indicate the possibility of characteristic of multifractal scaling behavior of the financial markets.     

Scaling and memory in the non-Poisson process of limit order cancelation

The order submission and cancelation processes are two crucial aspects in the price formation of stocks traded in order-driven markets. We investigate the dynamics of order cancelation by studying the statistical properties of inter-cancelation durations, defined as the waiting times between consecutive order cancelations of 22 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China in year 2003. Three types of cancelations are considered, including cancelation of any limit orders, of buy limit orders and of sell limit orders. We find that the distributions of the inter-cancelation durations of individual stocks can be well modeled by Weibulls for each type of cancelation, and the distributions of rescaled durations of each type of cancelations exhibit a scaling behavior for different stocks. Complex intra-day patterns are also unveiled in the inter-cancelation durations. The detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and the multifractal DFA show that the inter-cancelation durations possess long-term memory and multifractal nature, which are not influenced by the intra-day patterns. No clear crossover phenomenon is observed in the detrended fluctuation functions with respect to the time scale. These findings indicate that the cancelation of limit orders is a non-Poisson process, which has potential worth in the construction of order-driven market models.     

A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MDFA) of the Chinese growth enterprise market (GEM)

A multifractal, detrended fluctuation approach is used to analyze the growth enterprise market (GEM) in China involving a range of correlations in fluctuations of share prices (fat tail), persistent and anti-persistent states. Our analysis exhibits company-specific multifractal characteristics, which vary among the companies listed in the same industry, e.g., the power-law cross-correlations between computer and electronics sectors. These results may help reduce the risk in complex financial markets.     

Detrended fluctuation analysis of intertrade durations

The intraday pattern, long memory, and multifractal nature of the intertrade durations, which are defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, are investigated based upon the limit order book data and order flows of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. An inverse U-shaped intraday pattern in the intertrade durations with an abrupt drop in the first minute of the afternoon trading is observed. Based on a detrended fluctuation analysis, we find a crossover of power-law scaling behaviors for small box sizes (trade numbers in boxes) and large box sizes and strong evidence in favor of long memory in both regimes. In addition, the multifractal nature of intertrade durations in both regimes is confirmed by a multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis for individual stocks with a few exceptions in the small-duration regime. The intraday pattern has little influence on the long memory and multifractality.     

Cross-correlations between Chinese A-share and B-share markets

In this paper, we investigate the cross-correlations between Chinese A-share and B-share markets. Qualitatively, we find that the return series of Chinese A-share and B-share markets were overall significantly cross-correlated based on the analysis of a statistic. Quantitatively, employing the detrended cross-correlation analysis, we find that the cross-correlations were strongly multifractal in the short-term and weakly multifractal in the long-term. Moreover, the cross-correlations of small fluctuations were persistent and those of large fluctuations were anti-persistent in the short-term while cross-correlations of all kinds of fluctuations were persistent in the long-term. Using the method of rolling windows, we find that the cross-correlations were weaker and weaker over time, especially after the price-limited reform. We attribute the fact to the improvement of market efficiency. On the volatility series, our results show that the cross-correlations were much stronger than those between return series. Results from rolling windows show that the short-term cross-correlations between volatility series are still high now. We also provide some relevant discussions later.     

Cryptocurrency Market Consolidation in 2020–2021

Time series of price returns for 80 of the most liquid cryptocurrencies listed on Binance are investigated for the presence of detrended cross-correlations. A spectral analysis of the detrended correlation matrix and a topological analysis of the minimal spanning trees calculated based on this matrix are applied for different positions of a moving window. The cryptocurrencies become more strongly cross-correlated among themselves than they used to be before. The average cross-correlations increase with time on a specific time scale in a way that resembles the Epps effect amplification when going from past to present. The minimal spanning trees also change their topology and, for the short time scales, they become more centralized with increasing maximum node degrees, while for the long time scales they become more distributed, but also more correlated at the same time. Apart from the inter-market dependencies, the detrended cross-correlations between the cryptocurrency market and some traditional markets, like the stock markets, commodity markets, and Forex, are also analyzed. The cryptocurrency market shows higher levels of cross-correlations with the other markets during the same turbulent periods, in which it is strongly cross-correlated itself.     

Analysis of the efficiency of the Shanghai stock market: A volatility perspective

By applying the rolling window method, we investigate the efficiency of the Shanghai stock market through the dynamic changes of local Hurst exponents based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. We decompose the realized volatility into continuous sample paths and jump components and analyze their long-range correlations of decomposing components. Our results reveal that the efficiency of the Shanghai stock market improved greatly based on the time-varying Hurst exponents.     

Quantifying bid-ask spreads in the Chinese stock market using limit-order book data

The statistical properties of the bid-ask spread of a frequently traded Chinese stock listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange are investigated using the limit-order book data. Three different definitions of spread are considered based on the time right before transactions, the time whenever the highest buying price or the lowest selling price changes, and a fixed time interval. The results are qualitatively similar no matter linear prices or logarithmic prices are used. The average spread exhibits evident intraday patterns consisting of a big L-shape in morning transactions and a small L-shape in the afternoon. The distributions of the spread with different definitions decay as power laws. The tail exponents of spreads at transaction level are well within the interval (2,3) and that of average spreads are well in line with the inverse cubic law for different time intervals. Based on the detrended fluctuation analysis, we found the evidence of long memory in the bid-ask spread time series for all three definitions, even after the removal of the intraday pattern. Using the classical box-counting approach for multifractal analysis, we show that the time series of bid-ask spread do not possess multifractal nature.     

Multifractal detrended cross-correlations between the Chinese exchange market and stock market

Based on the daily price data of the Chinese Yuan (RMB)/US dollar exchange rate and the Shanghai Stock Composite Index, we conducted an empirical analysis of the cross-correlations between the Chinese exchange market and stock market using the multifractal cross-correlation analysis method. The results demonstrate the overall significance of the cross-correlation based on the analysis of a statistic. Multifractality exists in cross-correlations, and the cross-correlated behavior of small fluctuations is more persistent than that of large fluctuations. Moreover, using the rolling windows method, we find that the cross-correlations between the Chinese exchange market and stock market vary with time and are especially sensitive to the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime. The previous reduction in the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate in July 2008 strengthened the persistence of cross-correlations and decreased the degree of multifractality, whereas the enhancement of the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate in June 2010 weakened the persistence of cross-correlations and increased the multifractality. Finally, several relevant discussions are provided to verify the robustness of our empirical analysis.     

Asymmetric Fractal Characteristics and Market Efficiency Analysis of Style Stock Indices

As a typical complex system, the stock market has attracted the attention of scholars and investors to comprehensively understand its fractal characteristics and analyze its market efficiency. Firstly, this paper proposes an asymmetric, detrended fluctuation analysis based on overlapping sliding windows (OSW-A-MFDFA). It reduces the generation of fluctuation errors, and the calculation results are more robust and reliable. The advantage of the OSW-A-MFDFA is that it not only can reveal the multifractal characteristics of time series clearly, but also can further accurately analyze the asymmetry of fractal characteristics under different trends. Secondly, this paper focuses on the variation in the width difference and height difference of the multifractal spectrum under different trends. Finally, based on multifractality, this paper proposes a comprehensive indicator MED that can be used to measure market efficiency, which is characterized by traversing all fluctuation orders. The application revealed many interesting findings in style stock indices. Style stock indices have asymmetric multifractal characteristics, and there are significant differences in the fractal spectrum of different style assets. Moreover, the market efficiency of style stock indices is time-varying, which can be reasonably explained from the perspective of the adaptive market hypothesis.