Extreme value modeling under power normalization

In this paper the mathematical modeling of extremes under power normalization is developed. An estimate of the shape parameter within the generalized extreme value distribution under power normalization is suggested. The statistical inference about the upper tail of a distribution function by using the power normalization is studied. Two models for generalized Pareto distribution under power normalization (GPDP) are given. Estimates for the shape and scale parameters within these GPDP’s are obtained. Finally, a simulation study illustrates and corroborates theoretical results.     

Brownian Motion and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Processes in Planar Shape Space

We discuss Brownian motion and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes specified directly in planar shape space. In particular, we obtain the drift and diffusion coefficients of Brownian motion in terms of Kendall shape variables and Goodall–Mardia polar shape variables. Stochastic differential equations are given and the stationary distributions are obtained. By adding in extra drift to a reference figure, Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes can be studied, for example with stationary distribution given by the complex Watson distribution. The triangle case is studied in particular detail, and some simulations given. Connections with existing work are made, in particular with the diffusion of Euclidean shape. We explore statistical inference for the parameters in the model with an application to cell shape modelling.      

Partial size-and-shape distributions

The concepts of partial size-and-shape and partial shape are defined, with motivation from a study in human movement analysis. Some co-ordinates for partial shape for landmarks in three dimensions are given, and Gaussian models for the landmark co-ordinates are proposed. The main results involve the derivation of the partial size-and-shape distributions for the isotropic and general multivariate normal models for three-dimensional data. The partial shape distribution is given in the isotropic case. Maximum likelihood based inference is explored, and examples using simulated and real human movement data illustrate the methodology.     

An information-theoretic framework for robustness

This is a paper about the foundation of robust inference. As a specific example, we consider semiparametric location models that involve a shape parameter. We argue that robust methods result via the selection of a representative shape from a set of allowable shapes. To perform this selection, we need a measure of disparity between the true shape and the shape to be used in the inference. Given such a disparity, we propose to solve a certain minimax problem. The paper discusses in detail the use of the Kullback-Leibler divergence for the selection of shapes. The resulting estimators are shown to have redescending influence functions when the set of allowable shapes contains heavy-tailed members. The paper closes with a brief discussion of the next logical step, namely the representation of a set of shapes by a pair of selected shapes.     

Bayesian Inference for Extremes: Accounting for the Three Extremal Types

The Extremal Types Theorem identifies three distinct types of extremal behaviour. Two different strategies for statistical inference for extreme values have been developed to exploit this asymptotic representation. One strategy uses a model for which the three types are combined into a unified parametric family with the shape parameter of the family determining the type: positive (Fréchet), zero (Gumbel), and negative (negative Weibull). This form of approach never selects the Gumbel type as that type is reduced to a single point in a continuous parameter space. The other strategy first selects the extremal type, based on hypothesis tests, and then estimates the best fitting model within the selected type. Such approaches ignore the uncertainty of the choice of extremal type on the subsequent inference. We overcome these deficiencies by applying the Bayesian inferential framework to an extended model which explicitly allocates a non-zero probability to the Gumbel type. Application of our procedure suggests that the effect of incorporating the knowledge of the Extremal Types Theorem into the inference for extreme values is to reduce uncertainty, with the degree of reduction depending on the shape parameter of the true extremal distribution and the prior weight given to the Gumbel type.     

Bayesian inference using a noninformative prior for linear Gaussian random coefficient regression with inhomogeneous within-class variances

A Bayesian inference for a linear Gaussian random coefficient regression model with inhomogeneous within-class variances is presented. The model is motivated by an application in metrology, but it may well find interest in other fields. We consider the selection of a noninformative prior for the Bayesian inference to address applications where the available prior knowledge is either vague or shall be ignored. The noninformative prior is derived by applying the Berger and Bernardo reference prior principle with the means of the random coefficients forming the parameters of interest. We show that the resulting posterior is proper and specify conditions for the existence of first and second moments of the marginal posterior. Simulation results are presented which suggest good frequentist properties of the proposed inference. The calibration of sonic nozzle data is considered as an application from metrology. The proposed inference is applied to these data and the results are compared to those obtained by alternative approaches.     

Sensitivity Statistical Estimates for Local A Posteriori Inference Matrix-Vector Equations in Algebraic Bayesian Networks over Quantum Propositions

An approach to the sensitivity analysis of local a posteriori inference equations in algebraic Bayesian networks is proposed in this paper. Some basic definitions and formulations are briefly given and the development of the matrix-vector a posteriori inference approach is considered. Some cases of the propagation of deterministic and stochastic evidence in a knowledge pattern with scalar estimates of component truth probabilities over quantum propositions are described. For each of the considered cases, the necessary metrics are introduced, and some transformations resulting in four linear programming problems are performed. The solution of these problems gives the required estimates. In addition, two theorems postulating the covering estimates for the considered parameters are formulated. The results obtained in this work prove the correct application of models and create a basis for the sensitivity analysis of local and global probabilistic-logic inference equations.     

Robust Bayesian Inference for Seemingly Unrelated Regressions with Elliptical Errors

Bayesian inference is considered for the seemingly unrelated regressions with an elliptically contoured error distribution. We show that the posterior distribution of the regression parameters and the predictive distribution of future observations under elliptical errors assumption are identical to those obtained under independently distributed normal errors when an improper prior is used. This gives inference robustness with respect to departures from the reference case of independent sampling from the normal distribution.     

Statistical theory of shape under elliptical models and singular value decompositions

The size-and-shape and shape distributions based on non-central and non-isotropic elliptical distributions are derived in this paper by using the singular value decomposition (SVD). The general densities require the computation of new integrals involving zonal polynomials. The invariance of the central shape distribution is also proved. Finally, some particular densities are applied in a classical data of Biology, and the inference based on exact distributions is performed after choosing the best model by using a modified BIC^∗ criterion.     

Bayesian inference and life testing plans for generalized exponential distribution

Recently generalized exponential distribution has received considerable attentions. In this paper, we deal with the Bayesian inference of the unknown parameters of the progressively censored generalized exponential distribution. It is assumed that the scale and the shape parameters have independent gamma priors. The Bayes estimates of the unknown parameters cannot be obtained in the closed form. Lindley’s approximation and importance sampling technique have been suggested to compute the approximate Bayes estimates. Markov Chain Monte Carlo method has been used to compute the approximate Bayes estimates and also to construct the highest posterior density credible intervals. We also provide different criteria to compare two different sampling schemes and hence to find the optimal sampling schemes. It is observed that finding the optimum censoring procedure is a computationally expensive process. And we have recommended to use the sub-optimal censoring procedure, which can be obtained very easily. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the different methods and one data analysis has been performed for illustrative purposes. This work was partially supported by a grant from the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India     

An asymptotics look at the generalized inference

This paper provides an asymptotics look at the generalized inference through showing connections between the generalized inference and two widely used asymptotic methods, the bootstrap and plug-in method. A generalized bootstrap method and a generalized plug-in method are introduced. The generalized bootstrap method can not only be used to prove asymptotic frequentist properties of existing generalized confidence regions through viewing fiducial generalized pivotal quantities as generalized bootstrap variables, but also yield new confidence regions for the situations where the generalized inference is unavailable. Some examples are presented to illustrate the method. In addition, the generalized F-test (Weerahandi, 1995 [26]) can be derived by the generalized plug-in method, then its asymptotic validity is obtained.     

Drawing inferences from logit models for panel data

Logit models have been widely used in marketing to predict brand choice and to make inference about the impact of marketing mix variables on these choices. Most researchers have followed the pioneering example of Guadagni and Little, building choice models and drawing inference conditional on the assumption that the logit model is the correct specification for household purchase behaviour. To the extent that logit models fail to adequately describe household purchase behaviour, statistical inferences from them may be flawed. More importantly, marketing decisions based on these models may be incorrect. This research applies White's robust inference method to logit brand choice models. The method does not impose the restrictive assumption that the assumed logit model specification be true. A sandwich estimator of the covariance ‘corrected’ for possible mis‐specification is the basis for inference about logit model parameters. An important feature of this method is that it yields correct standard errors for the marketing mix parameter estimates even if the assumed logit model specification is not correct. Empirical examples include using household panel data sets from three different product categories to estimate logit models of brand choice. The standard errors obtained using traditional methods are compared with those obtained by White's robust method. The findings illustrate that incorrectly assuming the logit model to be true typically yields standard errors which are biased downward by 10–40 per cent. Conditions under which the bias is particularly severe are explored. Under these conditions, the robust approach is recommended. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

模糊推理三Ⅰ算法的还原性

模糊推理算法的还原性是判断蕴涵算子与推理方法配合效果的一个重要标准,只有蕴涵算子与推理方法搭配适当,才能使模糊推理有一个好的效果。本文对模糊推理三I算法具备还原性的条件进行了研究。首先,当与蕴涵算子相伴随的三角模为连续三角模时,给出了FM P问题三I算法具有还原性的充要条件;其次,当蕴涵算子为连续的正则蕴涵算子时,给出了FM T问题的三I算法具有还原性的充要条件;最后,当正则蕴涵算子关于补运算满足对合律时,给出了FM T问题三I算法满足还原性的一个充分条件。     

Bayesian analysis of Birnbaum–Saunders distribution via the generalized ratio-of-uniforms method

This paper deals with the Bayesian inference for the parameters of the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution. We adopt the inverse-gamma priors for the shape and scale parameters because the continuous conjugate joint prior distribution does not exist and the reference prior (or independent Jeffreys’ prior) results in an improper posterior distribution. We propose an efficient sampling algorithm via the generalized ratio-of-uniforms method to compute the Bayesian estimates and the credible intervals. One appealing advantage of the proposed procedure over other sampling techniques is that it efficiently generates independent samples from the required posterior distribution. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the behavior of the proposed method, and two real-data applications are analyzed for illustrative purposes.     

连续随机变量的随机独立性与回归独立性

回归独立性是指给定随机变量 X时 ,随机变量 Y的条件期望 E( Y|X)不依赖于 X.前人讨论了离散型随机变量回归独立性与随机独立性的关系 ,得到了二者等价的充分必要条件 .对连续型随机变量的情形加以讨论 ,获到了二者等价的几个充分必要条件 ,并说明在统计分析中的应用 .     

Bayesian Analysis of Abandonment in Call Center Operations

In this paper, we consider the modeling and the inference of abandonment behavior in call centers. We present several time to event modeling strategies, develop Bayesian inference for posterior and predictive analyses, and discuss implications on call center staffing. Different family of distributions, piecewise time to abandonment models, and mixture models are introduced, and their posterior analysis with censored abandonment data is carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We illustrate the implementation of the proposed models using real call center data, present additional insights that can be obtained from the Bayesian analysis, and discuss implications for different customer profiles. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High dimensional data analysis using multivariate generalized spatial quantiles

High dimensional data routinely arises in image analysis, genetic experiments, network analysis, and various other research areas. Many such datasets do not correspond to well-studied probability distributions, and in several applications the data-cloud prominently displays non-symmetric and non-convex shape features. We propose using spatial quantiles and their generalizations, in particular, the projection quantile, for describing, analyzing and conducting inference with multivariate data. Minimal assumptions are made about the nature and shape characteristics of the underlying probability distribution, and we do not require the sample size to be as high as the data-dimension. We present theoretical properties of the generalized spatial quantiles, and an algorithm to compute them quickly. Our quantiles may be used to obtain multidimensional confidence or credible regions that are not required to conform to a pre-determined shape. We also propose a new notion of multidimensional order statistics, which may be used to obtain multidimensional outliers. Many of the features revealed using a generalized spatial quantile-based analysis would be missed if the data was shoehorned into a well-known probabilistic configuration.     

逻辑系统$G_3$中命题的真度值之集在[0,1]上的分布

利用势为3的均匀概率空间的无穷乘积在G■del三值命题逻辑中引入了公式的真度概念,给出了真度推理规则,证明了全体公式的真度值之集在[0,1]上是稠密的,并给出了公式真度的表达通式,为进一步建立三值命题逻辑的近似推理理论奠定了基础．     

Quasi-Profile Log Likelihoods for Unbiased Estimating Functions

This paper presents a new quasi-profile loglikelihood with the standard kind of distributional limit behaviour, for inference about an arbitrary one-dimensional parameter of interest, based on unbiased estimating functions. The new function is obtained by requiring the corresponding quasi-profile score function to have bias and information bias of order O(1). We illustrate the use of the proposed pseudo-likelihood with an application to robust inference in linear models.     

随机估计和VDR检验

众所周知统计推断有三种理论:普遍承认的Neyman理论(频率学派),Bayes推断和信仰推断(Fiducial)。Bayes推断基于后验分布,由先验分布和样本分布求得。信仰推断是基于信仰分布(Confidence Distribution,简称CD),直接利用样本求得。两者推断方式一致,都是用分布函数作推断,称为分布推断。从分析传统的参数估计、假设检验特性来看,经典统计推断也可以视为分布推断。通常将置信上限看做置信度的函数。其反函数,即置信度是置信上界的函数,恰是分布函数,该分布恰是近年来引起许多学者兴趣的CD。在本文中,基于随机化估计(其分布是一CD)的概率密度函数,提出VDR检验。常见正态分布期望或方差的检验,多元正态分布期望的Hoteling检验等是其特例。VDR(vertical density representation)检验适合于多元分布参数检验,实现了非正态的多元线性变换分布族的参数检验。VDR构造的参数的置信域有最小Lebesgue测度。