A Cross-Entropy Approach to the Estimation of Generalized Linear Multilevel Models

In this article, we use the cross-entropy method for noisy optimization for fitting generalized linear multilevel models through maximum likelihood. We propose specifications of the instrumental distributions for positive and bounded parameters that improve the computational performance. We also introduce a new stopping criterion, which has the advantage of being problem-independent. In a second step we find, by means of extensive Monte Carlo experiments, the most suitable values of the input parameters of the algorithm. Finally, we compare the method to the benchmark estimation technique based on numerical integration. The cross-entropy approach turns out to be preferable from both the statistical and the computational point of view. In the last part of the article, the method is used to model the probability of firm exits in the healthcare industry in Italy. Supplemental materials are available online.     

An efficient step size control for continuation methods

In solving a nonlinear equation by the use of a continuation method one of the crucial problems is the choice of the step sizes. We present a model for the total computational cost of a standard numerical continuation process and solve the problem of optimal step size control for this model. Using the theoretical results as a basis, we develop an adaptive step size algorithm for Newton's method. This procedure is computationally inexpensive and it gives quite satisfactory results compared to some other numerical experiments found in the literature.     

Asymptotic properties of the minimum contrast estimators for projections of inhomogeneous space-time shot-noise Cox processes

We consider a flexible class of space-time point process models—inhomogeneous shot-noise Cox point processes. They are suitable for modelling clustering phenomena, e.g. in epidemiology, seismology, etc. The particular structure of the model enables the use of projections to the spatial and temporal domain. They are used to formulate a stepwise estimation method to estimate different parts of the model separately. In the first step, the Poisson likelihood approach is used to estimate the inhomogeneity parameters. In the second and third steps, the minimum contrast estimation based on K-functions of the projected processes is used to estimate the interaction parameters. We study the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators and formulate a set of conditions sufficient for establishing consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators under the increasing domain asymptotics.     

A two-step method for estimating high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models

The problem of estimating high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models has gained much attention in recent years. Most existing methods can be considered as one-step approaches, being either regression-based or likelihood-based. In this paper, we propose a two-step method for estimating the high-dimensional Gaussian graphical model. Specifically, the first step serves as a screening step, in which many entries of the concentration matrix are identified as zeros and thus removed from further consideration. Then in the second step, we focus on the remaining entries of the concentration matrix and perform selection and estimation for nonzero entries of the concentration matrix. Since the dimension of the parameter space is effectively reduced by the screening step,the estimation accuracy of the estimated concentration matrix can be potentially improved. We show that the proposed method enjoys desirable asymptotic properties. Numerical comparisons of the proposed method with several existing methods indicate that the proposed method works well. We also apply the proposed method to a breast cancer microarray data set and obtain some biologically meaningful results.     

Split Bregman method for the modified lot model in image denoising

In this paper a split Bregman iteration is proposed for the modified LOT model in image denoising. We first use the split Bregman method to solve the ROF model which can be seen as an approximate form of the first step of the original LOT model. Then we use a modified split Bregman method to fit the second step of the LOT model and give the convergence of the proposed split Bregman method. Several numerical examples are arranged to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Semiparametric estimation of average treatment effect through a random coefficient dummy endogenous variable model

This paper provides an estimation procedure for average treatment effect through a random coefficient dummy endogenous variable model. A leading example of the model is estimating the effect of a training program on earnings. The model is composed of two equations: an outcome equation and a decision equation. Given the linear restriction in outcome and decision equations, Chen (1999) provided a distribution-free estimation procedure under conditional symmetric error distributions. In this paper we extend Chen’s estimator by relaxing the linear index into a nonparametric function, which greatly reduces the risk of model misspecification. A two-step approach is proposed: the first step uses a nonparametric regression estimator for the decision variable, and the second step uses an instrumental variables approach to estimate average treatment effect in the outcome equation. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Furthermore, we investigate the finite performance of our estimator by a Monte Carlo study and also use our estimator to study the return of college education in different periods of China. The estimates seem more reasonable than those of other commonly used estimators.     

A Globally Convergent Method of Constrained Minimization by Solving Subproblems of the Conic Model

A new method for nonlinearly constrained optimization problems is proposed. The method consists of two steps. In the first step, we get a search direction by the linearly constrained subproblems based on conic functions. In the second step, we use a differentiable penalty function, and regard it as the metric function of the problem. From this, a new approximate solution is obtained. The global convergence of the given method is also proved.     

A Test of Correlation in the Random Coefficients of an Autoregressive Process

A random coefficient autoregressive process in which the coefficients are correlated is investigated. First we look at the existence of a strictly stationary causal solution, we give the second-order stationarity conditions and the autocorrelation function of the process. Then we study some asymptotic properties of the empirical mean and the usual estimators of the process, such as convergence, asymptotic normality and rates of convergence, supplied with appropriate assumptions on the driving perturbations. Our objective is to get an overview of the influence of correlated coefficients in the estimation step through a simple model. In particular, the lack of consistency is shown for the estimation of the autoregressive parameter when the independence hypothesis in the random coefficients is violated. Finally, a consistent estimation is given together with a testing procedure for the existence of correlation in the coefficients. While convergence properties rely on ergodicity, we use a martingale approach to reach most of the results.     

小样本下两阶段MCMC参数估计方法——基于信用风险强度模型的研究

应用我国金融市场数据估计信用风险强度模型参数时,常遇到由小样本而导致的偏差问题,对此本文提出了两阶段MCMC参数估计方法:第一阶段用Lee和Mykland的跳辨识方法估计跳跃项参数;第二阶段用MC-MC方法估计扩散和漂移项参数。误差分析的结果表明两阶段MCMC方法小样本下信用风险模型参数估计的效果要明显好于单纯的MCMC方法。作为应用,采用我国第一支个人住房抵押贷款支持证券"建元2005-1"的违约和提前还款数据,估计了信用风险强度模型的参数。     

基于不确定需求的灾后应急救灾网络规划模型与算法

突发事件发生后,快速应急响应的第一步是启动应急救灾网络,合理配置应急救灾资源,以保证救灾过程顺利进行,提高救援效率。本文以台风灾害为背景,建立二阶段应急救灾网络的混合整数规划模型,解决台风灾害的灾后应急救灾网络的规划与设计问题。在求解模型时,考虑需求信息的分布难以确定,并且在一定范围内变动的特点,利用鲁棒优化的方法处理不确定性需求,从而得到合理的临时救灾中心选址以及应急资源配置信息。数值试验表明,建立的模型是实际可行的,而且算法也是有效的。     

Conditional Logistic Regression With Longitudinal Follow-up and Individual-Level Random Coefficients: A Stable and Efficient Two-Step Estimation Method

The analysis of data generated by animal habitat selection studies, by family studies of genetic diseases, or by longitudinal follow-up of households often involves fitting a mixed conditional logistic regression model to longitudinal data composed of clusters of matched case-control strata. The estimation of model parameters by maximum likelihood is especially difficult when the number of cases per stratum is greater than one. In this case, the denominator of each cluster contribution to the conditional likelihood involves a complex integral in high dimension, which leads to convergence problems in the numerical maximization. In this article we show how these computational complexities can be bypassed using a global two-step analysis for nonlinear mixed effects models. The first step estimates the cluster-specific parameters and can be achieved with standard statistical methods and software based on maximum likelihood for independent data. The second step uses the EM-algorithm in conjunction with conditional restricted maximum likelihood to estimate the population parameters. We use simulations to demonstrate that the method works well when the analysis is based on a large number of strata per cluster, as in many ecological studies. We apply the proposed two-step approach to evaluate habitat selection by pairs of bison roaming freely in their natural environment. This article has supplementary material online.     

On the Use of Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Parameter Estimation of Space-Time Interacting Discs

A space-time random set is defined and methods of its parameters estimation are investigated. The evolution in discrete time is described by a state-space model. The observed output is a planar union of interacting discs given by a probability density with respect to a reference Poisson process of discs. The state vector is to be estimated together with auxiliary parameters of transitions caused by a random walk. Three methods of parameters estimation are involved, first of which is the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for individual outputs at fixed times. In the space-time model the state vector can be estimated by the particle filter (PF), where MLE serves to the estimation of auxiliary parameters. In the present paper the aim is to compare MLE and PF with particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC). From the group of PMCMC methods we use specially the particle marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) algorithm which updates simultaneously the state vector and the auxiliary parameters. A simulation study is presented in which all estimators are compared by means of the integrated mean square error. New data are then simulated repeatedly from the model with parameters estimated by PMMH and the fit with the original model is quantified by means of the spherical contact distribution function.     

Robust additive Gaussian process models using reference priors and cut-off-designs

When powerful numerical tools like the finite element method encounter their limits for the evaluation of physical systems it is very common to use surrogate models as an approximation. There are many possible choices concerning the model approach, among which Gaussian process models are the most popular ones due to their clear statistical basis. A very desirable attribute of such surrogates is a high flexibility for making them applicable to a great class of underlying problems while obtaining interpretable results. To achieve this Gaussian processes are used as basis functions of an additive model in this work. Another important property of a surrogate is stability, which can be especially challenging when it comes to the estimation of the correlation parameters. To solve this we use a Bayesian approach where a reference prior is assigned to each component of the additive model assuring robust correlation matrices. Due to the additive structure of the model a simplified parameter estimation process is proposed that reduces the usually high-dimensional optimization problem to a few sub-routines of low dimension. Finally, we demonstrate this concept by modeling the magnetic field of a magnetic linear position detection system.     

Efficient parameter estimation via modified Cholesky decomposition for quantile regression with longitudinal data

It is well known that specifying a covariance matrix is difficult in the quantile regression with longitudinal data. This paper develops a two step estimation procedure to improve estimation efficiency based on the modified Cholesky decomposition. Specifically, in the first step, we obtain the initial estimators of regression coefficients by ignoring the possible correlations between repeated measures. Then, we apply the modified Cholesky decomposition to construct the covariance models and obtain the estimator of within-subject covariance matrix. In the second step, we construct unbiased estimating functions to obtain more efficient estimators of regression coefficients. However, the proposed estimating functions are discrete and non-convex. We utilize the induced smoothing method to achieve the fast and accurate estimates of parameters and their asymptotic covariance. Under some regularity conditions, we establish the asymptotically normal distributions for the resulting estimators. Simulation studies and the longitudinal progesterone data analysis show that the proposed approach yields highly efficient estimators.     

Convergence acceleration of preconditioned conjugate gradient solver based on error vector sampling for a sequence of linear systems

In this article, we focus on solving a sequence of linear systems that have identical (or similar) coefficient matrices. For this type of problem, we investigate subspace correction (SC) and deflation methods, which use an auxiliary matrix (subspace) to accelerate the convergence of the iterative method. In practical simulations, these acceleration methods typically work well when the range of the auxiliary matrix contains eigenspaces corresponding to small eigenvalues of the coefficient matrix. We develop a new algebraic auxiliary matrix construction method based on error vector sampling in which eigenvectors with small eigenvalues are efficiently identified in the solution process. We use the generated auxiliary matrix for convergence acceleration in the following solution step. Numerical tests confirm that both SC and deflation methods with the auxiliary matrix can accelerate the solution process of the iterative solver. Furthermore, we examine the applicability of our technique to the estimation of the condition number of the coefficient matrix. We also present the algorithm of the preconditioned conjugate gradient method with condition number estimation.     

Parameter estimation for generalized diffusion processes with reflected boundary

Reflected Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is a process that returns continuously and immediately to the interior of the state space when it attains a certain boundary. It is an extended model of the traditional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process being extensively used in finance as a one-factor short-term interest rate model. In this paper, under certain constraints, we are concerned with the problem of estimating the unknown parameter in the reflected Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with the general drift coefficient. The methodology of estimation is built upon the maximum likelihood approach and the method of stochastic integration. The strong consistency and asymptotic normality of estimator are derived. As a by-product of the use, we also establish Girsanov’s theorem of our model in this paper.     

Synthetic estimation on substantial Costs of Productions

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Stochastic non-convex envelopment of data: Applying isotonic regression to frontier estimation

Isotonic nonparametric least squares (INLS) is a regression method for estimating a monotonic function by fitting a step function to data. In the literature of frontier estimation, the free disposal hull (FDH) method is similarly based on the minimal assumption of monotonicity. In this paper, we link these two separately developed nonparametric methods by showing that FDH is a sign-constrained variant of INLS. We also discuss the connections to related methods such as data envelopment analysis (DEA) and convex nonparametric least squares (CNLS). Further, we examine alternative ways of applying isotonic regression to frontier estimation, analogous to corrected and modified ordinary least squares (COLS/MOLS) methods known in the parametric stream of frontier literature. We find that INLS is a useful extension to the toolbox of frontier estimation both in the deterministic and stochastic settings. In the absence of noise, the corrected INLS (CINLS) has a higher discriminating power than FDH. In the case of noisy data, we propose to apply the method of non-convex stochastic envelopment of data (non-convex StoNED), which disentangles inefficiency from noise based on the skewness of the INLS residuals. The proposed methods are illustrated by means of simulated examples.