A multi-phase DES modelling framework for patient-centred care

We provide a framework for simulating the entire patient journey across different phases (such as diagnosis, treatment, rehabilitation and long-term care) and different sectors (such as GP, hospital, social and community services), with the aim of providing better understanding of such processes and facilitating evaluation of alternative clinical and care strategies. A phase-type modelling approach is used to promote better modelling and management of the specific elements of a patient pathway, using performance measures such as clinical outcomes, patient quality of life, and cost. The approach is illustrated using stroke disease. Approximately 5% of the United Kingdom National Health Service budget is spent treating stroke disease each year. There is an urgent need to assess whether existing services are cost-effective or new interventions could increase efficiency. This assessment can be made using models across primary and secondary care; in particular we evaluate the cost-effectiveness of thrombolysis (clot busting therapy), using discrete event simulation. Using our model, patient quality of life and the costs of thrombolysis are compared under different regimes. In addition, our simulation framework is used to illustrate the impact of internal discharge queues, which can develop while patients are awaiting placement. Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis of the value parameters is also carried out.     

A modelling framework for comparative testing of energy forecasts

A project is described in which a methodology was developed for the comparative testing of medium-term national energy forecasts. The basis of the approach is a computer modelling system which can be used flexibly to investigate the dynamics of alternative assumptions about energy futures. The application of the methodology to the forecasts produced by a particular research group is discussed and the educative value of a modelling approach for the users in this case is explained. The study is intended as a contribution to the U.K. national debate on energy policy.     

Conceptual modelling for simulation Part II: a framework for conceptual modelling

Following on from the definition of a conceptual model and its requirements laid out in a previous paper, a framework for conceptual modelling is described. The framework consists of five iterative activities: understanding the problem situation, determining the modelling and general project objectives, identifying the model outputs, identify the model inputs, and determining the model content. The framework is demonstrated with a modelling application at a Ford Motor Company engine assembly plant. The paper concludes with a discussion on identifying data requirements from the conceptual model and the assessment of the conceptual model.     

A modelling framework for solving restricted planar location problems using phi-objects

This paper presents a general modelling framework for restricted facility location problems with arbitrarily shaped forbidden regions or barriers, where regions are modelled using phi-objects. Phi-objects are an efficient tool in mathematical modelling of 2D and 3D geometric optimization problems, and are widely used in cutting and packing problems and covering problems. The paper shows that the proposed modelling framework can be applied to both median and centre facility location problems, either with barriers or forbidden regions. The resulting models are either mixed-integer linear or non-linear programming formulations, depending on the shape of the restricted region and the considered distance measure. Using the new framework, all instances from the existing literature for this class of problems are solved to optimality. The paper also introduces and optimally solves a realistic multi-facility problem instance derived from an archipelago vulnerable to earthquakes. This problem instance is significantly more complex than any other instance described in the literature.     

A framework for identifying student blockages during transitions in the modelling process

In this article we present, illustrate, test and refine a framework developed by Galbraith, Stillman, Brown and Edwards (2006) for identifying student blockages whilst undertaking modelling tasks during transitions in the modelling process. The framework was developed with 14~15 year old students who were engaging in their first experiences of modelling at the secondary level.     

A co-opetitive framework for the hub location problems in transportation networks

In this paper, we present the first model of co-opetition for a Hub Location Problem between two logistics service provider (LSPs) companies where the mother company is the owner of infrastructure. The LSPs would like to cooperate with each other by establishing joint edges with limited capacities connecting their service networks. Such services are in form of pendulum services (a direct service between two points) between nodes of different networks. Additional market can be generated as a result of joining the two networks. At the same time, a competition is taking place between the two operators to increase their share from the additional market generated. In order to solve this problem, we propose a matheuristic approach combining a local search algorithm and a Lagrangian relaxation-based approach. In our matheuristic algorithm, the neighbourhood solutions are evaluated using a Lagrangian relaxation-based approach. Numerical results of applying the proposed algorithm on a real case study of the problem are presented.     

A participative and facilitative conceptual modelling framework for discrete event simulation studies in healthcare

Existing approaches to conceptual modelling (CM) in discrete-event simulation do not formally support the participation of a group of stakeholders. Simulation in healthcare can benefit from stakeholder participation as it makes possible to share multiple views and tacit knowledge from different parts of the system. We put forward a framework tailored to healthcare that supports the interaction of simulation modellers with a group of stakeholders to arrive at a common conceptual model. The framework incorporates two facilitated workshops. It consists of a package including: three key stages and sub-stages; activities and guidance; tools and prescribed outputs. The CM framework is tested in a real case study of an obesity system. The benefits of using this framework in healthcare studies and more widely in simulation are discussed. The paper also considers how the framework meets the CM requirements.     

Newsvendor equations for production networks

We consider production networks with stochastic activity leadtimes. When activities finish early holding costs are incurred and when end products are delivered late penalty costs are incurred. Objective is to find the activity start and finish times that minimize the total cost. We introduce the concept of a tardy path and derive the optimality equations for each node in the network. We show that under the optimal solution, for a set of nodes the tardiness probability satisfies the Newsvendor equations.     

A framework for performance measurement during production ramp-up of assembly stations

Production ramp-up is an important phase in the lifecycle of a manufacturing system which still has significant potential for improvement and thereby reducing the time-to-market of new and updated products. Production systems today are mostly one-of-a-kind complex, engineered-to-order systems. Their ramp-up is a complex order of physical and logical adjustments which are characterised by try and error decision making resulting in frequent reiterations and unnecessary repetitions. Studies have shown that clear goal setting and feedback can significantly improve the effectiveness of decision-making in predominantly human decision processes such as ramp-up. However, few measurement-driven decision aides have been reported which focus on ramp-up improvement and no systematic approach for ramp-up time reduction has yet been defined. In this paper, a framework for measuring the performance during ramp-up is proposed in order to support decision making by providing clear metrics based on the measurable and observable status of the technical system. This work proposes a systematic framework for data preparation, ramp-up formalisation, and performance measurement. A model for defining the ramp-up state of a system has been developed in order to formalise and capture its condition. Functionality, quality and performance based metrics have been identified to formalise a clear ramp-up index as a measurement to guide and support the human decision making. For the validation of the proposed framework, two ramp-up processes of an assembly station were emulated and their comparison was used to evaluate this work.     

Probabilistic temporal networks: A unified framework for reasoning with time and uncertainty

Complex real-world systems consist of collections of interacting processes/events. These processes change over time in response to both internal and external stimuli as well as to the passage of time itself. Many domains such as real-time systems diagnosis, story understanding, and financial forecasting require the capability to model complex systems under a unified framework to deal with both time and uncertainty. Current models for uncertainty and current models for time already provide rich languages to capture uncertainty and temporal information, respectively. Unfortunately, these semantics have made it extremely difficult to unify time and uncertainty in a way which cleanly and adequately models the problem domains at hand. Existing approaches suffer from significant trade offs between strong semantics for uncertainty and strong semantics for time. In this paper, we explore a new model, the Probabilistic Temporal Network (PTN), for representing temporal and atemporal information while fully embracing probabilistic semantics. The model allows representation of time constrained causality, of when and if events occur, and of the periodic and recurrent nature of processes.     

Synchronization in cross-docking networks: A research classification and framework

Cross-docking is a distribution strategy that enables the consolidation of less-than-truckload shipments into full truckloads without long-term storage. Due to the absence of a storage buffer inside a cross-dock, local and network-wide cross-docking operations need to be carefully synchronized. This paper proposes a framework specifying the interdependencies between different cross-docking problem aspects with the aim to support future research in developing decision models with practical and scientific relevance. The paper also presents a new general classification scheme for cross-docking research based on the inputs and outputs for each problem aspect. After classifying the existing cross-docking research, we conclude that the overwhelming majority of papers fail to consider the synchronization of local and network-wide cross-docking operations. Lastly, to highlight the importance of synchronization in cross-docking networks, two real-life illustrative problems are described that are not yet addressed in the literature.     

Advanced continuum modelling of gas-particle flows beyond the hydrodynamic limit

The accurate prediction of dilute gas-particle flows using Euler–Euler models is challenging because particle–particle collisions are usually not dominant in such flows. In other words, in dilute flows the particle Knudsen number is not small enough to justify a Chapman–Enskog expansion about the collision-dominated near-equilibrium limit. Moreover, due to the fluid drag and inelastic collisions, the granular temperature in gas-particle flows is often small compared to the mean particle kinetic energy, implying that the particle-phase Mach number can be very large. In analogy to rarefied gas flows, it is thus not surprising that two-fluid models fail for gas-particle flows with moderate Knudsen and Mach numbers. In this work, a third-order quadrature-based moment method, valid for arbitrary Knudsen number, coupled with a fluid solver has been applied to simulate dilute gas-particle flow in a vertical channel with particle-phase volume fractions between 0.0001 and 0.01. In order to isolate the instabilities that arise due to fluid-particle coupling, a fluid mass flow rate that ensures that turbulence would not develop in a single phase flow (Re = 1380) is employed. Results are compared with the predictions of a two-fluid model with standard kinetic theory based closures for the particle phase. The effect of the particle-phase volume fraction on flow instabilities leading to particle segregation is investigated, and differences with respect to the two-fluid model predictions are examined. The influence of the discretization on the solution of both models is investigated using three different grid resolutions. Radial profiles of phase velocities and particle concentration are shown for the case with an average particle volume fraction of 0.01, showing the flow is in the core-annular regime.     

Nonlinear hydrodynamic models of traffic flow modelling and mathematical problems

This paper deals with nonlinear hydrodynamic modelling of traffic flow on roads and with the solution of related nonlinear initial and boundary value problems. The paper is in two parts. The first one provides the general framework of hydrodynamic modelling of traffic flow. Some new models are proposed and related to the ones which are known in the literature. The second one is on mathematical methods related to the solution of initial-boundary value problems. A critical analysis and an overview on research perspectives conclude the paper.     

Non-local first-order modelling of crowd dynamics: A multidimensional framework with applications

In this work a physical modelling framework is presented, describing the intelligent, non-local, and anisotropic behaviour of pedestrians. Its phenomenological basics and constitutive elements are detailed, and a qualitative analysis is provided. Within this common framework, two first-order mathematical models, along with related numerical solution techniques, are derived. The models are oriented to specific real world applications: a one-dimensional model of crowd–structure interaction in footbridges and a two-dimensional model of pedestrian flow in an underground station with several obstacles and exits. The noticeable heterogeneity of the applications demonstrates the significance of the physical framework and its versatility in addressing different engineering problems. The results of the simulations point out the key role played by the physiological and psychological features of human perception on the overall crowd dynamics.     

A note on the modelling of project networks with time constraints

In this note we show how to manage, by means of Generalized Precedence Relationships, some kinds of temporal constraints introduced by Chen et al. (1997) in project networks.     

An efficiency measurement framework for multi-stage production systems

We develop an efficiency measurement framework for systems composed of two subsystems arranged in series that simultaneously computes the efficiency of the aggregate system and each subsystem. Our approach expands the technology sets of each subsystem by allowing each to acquire resources from the other in exchange for delivery of the appropriate (intermediate or final) product, and to form composites from both subsystems. Managers of each subsystem will not agree to ‘`vertical integration’' initiatives unless each subsystem will be more efficient than what each can achieve by separately applying conventional efficiency analysis. A Pareto Efficient frontier characterizes the acceptable set of efficiencies of each subsystem from which the managers will negotiate to select the final outcome. Three proposals for the choice for the Pareto efficient point are discussed: the one that achieves the largest equiproportionate reduction in the classical efficiencies; the one that achieves the largest equal reduction in efficiency; and the one that maximizes the radial contraction in the aggregate consumption of resources originally employed before integration. We show how each choice for the Pareto efficient point determines a derived measure of aggregate efficiency. An extensive numerical example is used to illustrate exactly how the 2 subsystems can significantly improve their operational efficiencies via integration beyond what would be predicted by conventional analysis.     

Petri net modelling of biological regulatory networks

The complexity of biological regulatory networks often defies the intuition of the biologist and calls for the development of proper mathematical methods to model their structures and to delineate their dynamical properties. One qualitative approach consists in modelling regulatory networks in terms of logical equations (using either Boolean or multi-level discretisations). The Petri Net (PN) formalism offers a complementary framework to analyse the dynamical behaviour of large systems, either from a qualitative or from a quantitative point of view.

Our proposal consists in articulating the logical approach with the PN formalism. In a previous work, we have already defined a systematic re-writing of Boolean regulatory models into a standard PN formalism. In this paper, we propose a rigorous and systematic mapping of multi-level logical regulatory models into specific standard Petri nets, called Multi-level Regulatory Petri Nets (MRPNs). We further propose some reduction strategies. Consequently, the resulting models become amenable to the algebraic and computational analyses used by the PN community.

To illustrate our approach, we apply it to a multi-level logical model of the genetic switch controlling the lysis-lysogeny decision in the lambda bacteriophage.