Generalized binomial and negative binomial distributions of order<Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis> by the<Emphasis Type="Italic">l</Emphasis>-overlapping enumeration scheme

In this paper, we investigate the exact distribution of the waiting time for ther-th ℓ-overlapping occurrence of success-runs of a specified length in a sequence of two state Markov dependent trials. The probability generating functions are derived explicitly, and as asymptotic results, relationships of a negative binomial distribution of orderk and an extended Poisson distribution of orderk are discussed. We provide further insights into the run-related problems from the viewpoint of the ℓ-overlapping enumeration scheme. We also study the exact distribution of the number of ℓ-overlapping occurrences of success-runs in a fixed number of trials and derive the probability generating functions. The present work extends several properties of distributions of orderk and leads us a new type of geneses of the discrete distributions.     

On the Waiting Time for the First Success Run

Let k and m are positive integers with k ≥ m. The probability generating function of the waiting time for the first occurrence of consecutive k successes in a sequence of m-th order Markov dependent trials is given as a function of the conditional probability generating functions of the waiting time for the first occurrence of consecutive m successes. This provides an efficient algorithm for obtaining the probability generating function when k is large. In particular, in the case of independent trials a simple relationship between the geometric distribution of order k and the geometric distribution of order k−1 is obtained. This research was partially supported by the ISM Cooperative Research Program(2004-ISM-CRP-2006) and by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C) of the JSPI (Grant Number 16500183)     

Distributions of numbers of failures and successes until the first consecutivek successes

Exact distributions of the numbers of failures, successes and successes with indices no less thanl (1lk–1) until the first consecutivek successes are obtained for some {0, 1}-valued random sequences such as a sequence of independent and identically distributed (iid) trials, a homogeneous Markov chain and a binary sequence of orderk. The number of failures until the first consecutivek successes follows the geometric distribution with an appropriate parameter for each of the above three cases. When the {0, 1}-sequence is an iid sequence or a Markov chain, the distribution of the number of successes with indices no less thanl is shown to be a shifted geometric distribution of orderk - l. When the {0, 1}-sequence is a binary sequence of orderk, the corresponding number follows a shifted version of an extended geometric distribution of orderk - l.This research was partially supported by the ISM Cooperative Research Program (92-ISM-CRP-16) of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics.     

Sooner and later waiting time problems for success and failure runs in higher order Markov dependent trials

The probability generating functions of the waiting times for the first success run of length k and for the sooner run and the later run between a success run of length k and a failure run of length r in the second order Markov dependent trials are derived using the probability generating function method and the combinatorial method. Further, the systems of equations of 2^.m conditional probability generating functions of the waiting times in the m-th order Markov dependent trials are given. Since the systems of equations are linear with respect to the conditional probability generating functions, they can be solved exactly, and hence the probability generating functions of the waiting time distributions are obtained. If m is large, some computer algebra systems are available to solve the linear systems of equations.This research was partially supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.     

The Exact and Limiting Distributions for the Number of Successes in Success Runs Within a Sequence of Markov-Dependent Two-State Trials

The total number of successes in success runs of length greater than or equal to k in a sequence of n two-state trials is a statistic that has been broadly used in statistics and probability. For Bernoulli trials with k equal to one, this statistic has been shown to have binomial and normal distributions as exact and limiting distributions, respectively. For the case of Markov-dependent two-state trials with k greater than one, its exact and limiting distributions have never been considered in the literature. In this article, the finite Markov chain imbedding technique and the invariance principle are used to obtain, in general, the exact and limiting distributions of this statistic under Markov dependence, respectively. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Geometric ergodicity in a class of denumerable Markov chains

We study the question of geometric ergodicity in a class of Markov chains on the state space of non-negative integers for which, apart from a finite number of boundary rows and columns, the elements pjk of the one-step transition matrix are of the form c _k-j where {c _k} is a probability distribution on the set of integers. Such a process may be described as a general random walk on the non-negative integers with boundary conditions affecting transition probabilities into and out of a finite set of boundary states. The imbedded Markov chains of several non-Markovian queueing processes are special cases of this form. It is shown that there is an intimate connection between geometric ergodicity and geometric bounds on one of the tails of the distribution {c _k}.This research was supported by the U.S. office of Naval Research Contract No. Nonr-855(09), and carried out while the author was a visitor in the Statistics department, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.     

On Finite Markov Chain Imbedding and Its Applications

The finite Markov Chain Imbedding technique has been successfully applied in various fields for finding the exact or approximate distributions of runs and patterns under independent and identically distributed or Markov dependent trials. In this paper, we derive a new recursive equation for distribution of scan statistic using the finite Markov chain imbedding technique. We also address the problem of obtaining transition probabilities of the imbedded Markov chain by introducing a notion termed Double Finite Markov Chain Imbedding where transition probabilities are obtained by using the finite Markov chain imbedding technique again. Applications for random permutation model in chemistry and coupon collector’s problem are given to illustrate our idea.     

Perturbed Markov Chains with Damping Component

The paper is devoted to studies of regularly and singularly perturbed Markov chains with damping component. In such models, a matrix of transition probabilities is regularised by adding a special damping matrix multiplied by a small damping (perturbation) parameter ε. We perform a detailed perturbation analysis for such Markov chains, particularly, give effective upper bounds for the rate of approximation for stationary distributions of unperturbed Markov chains by stationary distributions of perturbed Markov chains with regularised matrices of transition probabilities, asymptotic expansions for approximating stationary distributions with respect to damping parameter, explicit coupling type upper bounds for the rate of convergence in ergodic theorems for n-step transition probabilities, as well as ergodic theorems in triangular array mode.

     

Interval estimates for posterior probabilities in a multivariate normal classification model

This paper is devoted to the asymptotic distribution of estimators for the posterior probability that a p-dimensional observation vector originates from one of k normal distributions with identical covariance matrices. The estimators are based on training samples for the k distributions involved. Observation vector and prior probabilities are regarded as given constants. The validity of various estimators and approximate confidence intervals is investigated by simulation experiments.     

On discrete distributions of orderk

Summary This paper gives some results on calculation of probabilities and moments of the discrete distributions of orderk. Further, a new distribution of orderk, which is called the logarithmic series distribution of orderk, is investigated. Finally, we discuss the meaning of theorder of the distributions. The Institute of Statistical Mathematics     

Discrete distributions of orderk on a binary sequence

Summary This paper considers discrete distributions of orderk based on a binary sequence which is defined as an extension of independent trials with a constant success probability and is more practical than the independent trials. Some results on calculation of probabilities and characteristics of the distributions are obtained as well as their formal expressions. Examples and an application are also given. The Institute of Statistical Mathematics     

On Success Runs of Length Exceeded a Threshold

Consider a sequence of n two state (success-failure) trials with outcomes arranged on a line or on a circle. The elements of the sequence are independent (identical or non identical distributed), exchangeable or first-order Markov dependent (homogeneous or non homogeneous) random variables. The statistic denoting the number of success runs of length at least equal to a specific length (a threshold) is considered. Exact formulae, lower/upper bounds and approximations are obtained for its probability distribution. The mean value and the variance of it are derived in an exact form. The distributions and the means of an associated waiting time and the length of the longest success run are provided. The reliability function of certain general consecutive systems is deduced using specific probabilities of the studied statistic. Detailed application case studies, covering a wide variety of fields, are combined with extensive numerical experimentation to illustrate further the theoretical results.     

Asymptotic Expansions for Large Deviation Probabilities of Noncentral Generalized Chi-Square Distributions

Asymptotic expansions for large deviation probabilities are used to approximate the cumulative distribution functions of noncentral generalized chi-square distributions, preferably in the far tails. The basic idea of how to deal with the tail probabilities consists in first rewriting these probabilities as large parameter values of the Laplace transform of a suitably defined function f_k; second making a series expansion of this function, and third applying a certain modification of Watson's lemma. The function f_k is deduced by applying a geometric representation formula for spherical measures to the multivariate domain of large deviations under consideration. At the so-called dominating point, the largest main curvature of the boundary of this domain tends to one as the large deviation parameter approaches infinity. Therefore, the dominating point degenerates asymptotically. For this reason the recent multivariate asymptotic expansion for large deviations in Breitung and Richter (1996, J. Multivariate Anal.58, 1–20) does not apply. Assuming a suitably parametrized expansion for the inverse g⁻¹ of the negative logarithm of the density-generating function, we derive a series expansion for the function f_k. Note that low-order coefficients from the expansion of g⁻¹ influence practically all coefficients in the expansion of the tail probabilities. As an application, classification probabilities when using the quadratic discriminant function are discussed.     

Sooner and Later Waiting Time Problems Based on a Dependent Sequence

This paper introduces a new concept: a binary sequence of order (k,r), which is an extension of a binary sequence of order k and a Markov dependent sequence. The probability functions of the sooner and later waiting time random variables are derived in the binary sequence of order (k,r). The probability generating functions of the sooner and later waiting time distributions are also obtained. Extensions of these results to binary sequence of order (g,h) are also presented.     

On the Stationary Distribution of the GI X /M Y /1 Queueing System

For the GI ^X /M/1 queue, it has been recently proved that there exist geometric distributions that are stochastic lower and upper bounds for the stationary distribution of the embedded Markov chain at arrival epochs. In this note we observe that this is also true for the GI ^X /M ^Y /1 queue. Moreover, we prove that the stationary distribution of its embedded Markov chain is asymptotically geometric. It is noteworthy that the asymptotic geometric parameter is the same as the geometric parameter of the upper bound. This fact justifies previous numerical findings about the quality of the bounds.     

Joint distributions associated with patterns,successes and failures in a sequence of multi-state trials

Let {Z _t ,t≥1} be a sequence of trials taking values in a given setA={0, 1, 2,...,m}, where we regard the value 0 as failure and the remainingm values as successes. Let ε be a (single or compound) pattern. In this paper, we provide a unified approach for the study of two joint distributions, i.e., the joint distribution of the numberX _n of occurrences of ε, the numbers of successes and failures inn trials and the joint distribution of the waiting timeT _r until ther-th occurrence of ε, the numbers of successes and failures appeared at that time. We also investigate some distributions as by-products of the two joint distributions. Our methodology is based on two types of the random variablesX _n (a Markov chain imbeddable variable of binomial type and a Markov chain imbeddable variable of returnable type). The present work develops several variations of the Markov chain imbedding method and enables us to deal with the variety of applications in different fields. Finally, we discuss several practical examples of our results. This research was partially supported by the ISM Cooperative Research Program (2002-ISM·CRP-2007).     

System availability in a shock model under preventive repair and phase‐type distributions

A device that can fail by shocks or ageing under policy N of maintenance is presented. The interarrival times between shocks follow phase‐type distributions depending on the number of cumulated shocks. The successive shocks deteriorate the system, and some of them can be fatal. After a prefixed number k of nonfatal shocks, the device is preventively repaired. After a fatal shock the device is correctively repaired. Repairs are as good as new, and follow phase‐type distributions. The system is governed by a Markov process whose infinitesimal generator, stationary probability vector, and availability are calculated, obtaining well‐structured expressions due to the use of phase‐type distributions. The availability is optimized in terms of the number k of preventive repairs. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hypergraphs as a mean of discovering the dependence structure of a discrete multivariate probability distribution

Most everyday reasoning and decision making is based on uncertain premises. The premises or attributes, which we must take into consideration, are random variables, therefore we often have to deal with a high dimensional multivariate random vector. A multivariate random vector can be represented graphically as a Markov network. Usually the structure of the Markov network is unknown. In this paper we construct special type of junction trees, in order to obtain good approximations of the real probability distribution. These junction trees are capable of revealing some of the conditional independences of the network. We have already introduced the concept of the t-cherry junction tree (E. Kovács and T. Szántai in Proceedings of the IFIP/IIASA//GAMM Workshop on Coping with Uncertainty, 2010), based on the t-cherry tree graph structure. This approximation uses only two and three dimensional marginal probability distributions. Now we use k-th order t-cherry trees, also called simplex multitrees to introduce the concept of the k-th order t-cherry junction tree. We prove that the k-th order t-cherry junction tree gives the best approximation among the family of k-width junction trees. Then we give a method which starting from a k-th order t-cherry junction tree constructs a (k+1)-th order t-cherry junction tree which gives at least as good approximation. In the last part we present some numerical results and some possible applications.