Linear prediction of record values for the two parameter exponential distribution

This paper deals with the problem of predicting thesth record value based on the firstm record values (s>m) when the observations are from the exponential distribution. Various estimates for thesth record value are obtained and their mean square errors are compared.     

The distribution of values of taylor series

Clarify some classical results and their proofs on the distribution of values of simple Taylor series and extend them to multiple Taylor series.     

On the exact distribution and mean value function of a geometric process with exponential interarrival times

The geometric process is considered when the distribution of the first interarrival time is assumed to be exponential. An analytical expression for the one dimensional probability distribution of this process is obtained as a solution to a system of recursive differential equations. A power series expansion is derived for the geometric renewal function by using an integral equation and evaluated in a computational perspective. Further, an extension is provided for the power series expansion of the geometric renewal function in the case of the Weibull distribution.     

Characterizations of the exponential distribution by stochastic ordering properties of the geometric compound

Under the reliability NBU/NWU conditions, the exponential distribution is characterized by stochastic ordering properties which link the geometric compound with minimum order statistics or spacings of order statistics. This somewhat answers a question posed by Kakosyan, Klebanov and Melamed (1984,Characterization of Distributions by the Method of intensively Monotone Operators, Springer, New York). We also show the related results based on the residual life in a renewal process and on record values. Finally, some fundamental properties of the NBUC/NWUC classes of life distributions are investigated.     

Some geometric applications of the beta distribution

Let be the angle between a line and a random k-space in Euclidean n-space R ⁿ. Then the random variable cos² has the beta distribution. This result is applied to show (1) in R ⁿthere are exponentially many (in n) lines going through the origin so that any two of them are nearly perpendicular, (2) any N-point set of diameter d in R ⁿlies between two parallel hyperplanes distance 2d{(log N)/(n-1)}^1/2 apart and (3) an improved version of a lemma of Johnson and Lindenstrauss (1984, Contemp. Math., 26, 189–206). A simple estimate of the area of a spherical cap, and an area-formula for a neighborhood of a great circle on a sphere are also given.     

On the Non-parametric Prediction of Conditionally Stationary Sequences

We prove the strong consistency of estimators of the conditional distribution function and conditional expectation of a future observation of a discrete time stochastic process given a fixed number of past observations. The results apply to conditionally stationary processes (a class of processes including Markov and stationary processes) satisfying a strong mixing condition, and they extend and bring together the work of several authors in the area of non-parametric estimation. One of our goals is to provide further justification for the growing practical application of non-parametric estimators in non-stationary time series and in other `non-i.i.d.' settings. Some arguments as to why such estimators should work very generally in practice, often in a nearly `optimal' way, are given. Two numerical illustrations are included, one with simulated data and the other with oceanographic data. An erratum to this article is available at .     

On tests of independence in a trivariate exponential distribution

In this paper we consider the problem of testing a null hypothesis H₀ against an alternative hypothesis H_a, related to a trivariate model. H₀ is transformed into a hypothesis concerning the equality of scale parameters of three exponential distributions, following Bhattacharyya and Johnson. Two conditional tests for the transformed hypothesis are considered, and simple expressions for the power functions of our tests are obtained.     

Some inferences of the generalized extreme value distribution based on record values

Several distributional properties of the record values from the generalized extreme value distribution are discussed. Some recurrence relations of the moments are given. The problem of the estimation of the location and scale parameter is studied. Several estimators of the shape parameter are also discussed. Predictors of the sth record value based on the first m (m<s) record values are derived. Proceedings of the XVI Seminar on Stability Problems for Stochastic Models, Part II, Eger, Hungary, 1994.     

Almost sure limit points of and the number of boundary crossings related to SLLN and LIL for record times,inter-record times and the number of record values

In this paper, the almost sure limit points and the moments of the number of boundary crossings of some functions of record times, inter-record times and the frequency of record values of a sequence of independent and identically distributed continuous random variables are studied.     

Estimating the tails of loss severity via conditional risk measures for the family of symmetric generalised hyperbolic distributions

This paper addresses one of the main challenges faced by insurance companies and risk management departments, namely, how to develop standardised framework for measuring risks of underlying portfolios and in particular, how to most reliably estimate loss severity distribution from historical data. This paper investigates tail conditional expectation (TCE) and tail variance premium (TVP) risk measures for the family of symmetric generalised hyperbolic (SGH) distributions. In contrast to a widely used Value-at-Risk (VaR) measure, TCE satisfies the requirement of the “coherent” risk measure taking into account the expected loss in the tail of the distribution while TVP incorporates variability in the tail, providing the most conservative estimator of risk. We examine various distributions from the class of SGH distributions, which turn out to fit well financial data returns and allow for explicit formulas for TCE and TVP risk measures. In parallel, we obtain asymptotic behaviour for TCE and TVP risk measures for large quantile levels. Furthermore, we extend our analysis to the multivariate framework, allowing multivariate distributions to model combinations of correlated risks, and demonstrate how TCE can be decomposed into individual components, representing contribution of individual risks to the aggregate portfolio risk.     

The asymptotic distributions of sums of record values for distributions with lognormal-type tails

Let X1,X2,... be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables and let X(1),X(2),... be the associatedrecord value sequence. We focus on the asymptotic distributions of sums of records, Tn=∑nk=1X(k), forX1 ∈ LN(γ). In this case, we find that 2 is a strange point for parameter γ. When γ＞ 2, Tn is asymptoticallynormal, while for 2 ＞γ＞ 1, we prove that Tn cannot converge in distribution to any non-degenerate lawthrough common centralizing and normalizing and log Tn is asymptotically normal.     

Some properties of the bivariate lognormal distribution for reliability applications

In this paper, we study the bivariate lognormal distribution from a reliability point of view. The conditional distribution of X given Y > y is found to be log‐skew normal. The monotonicity of the hazard rates of the univariate as well as the conditional distributions is discussed. Clayton's association measure is obtained in terms of the hazard gradient, and its value in the case of our model is derived. The probability distributions, in the case of series and parallel systems, are derived, and the monotonicity of their failure rates is discussed. Three real applications of the bivariate lognormal distribution are provided, two from financial economics and one from reliability. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On upper bounds for the tail distribution of geometric sums of subexponential random variables

The approach used by Kalashnikov and Tsitsiashvili for constructing upper bounds for the tail distribution of a geometric sum with subexponential summands is reconsidered. By expressing the problem in a more probabilistic light, several improvements and one correction are made, which enables the constructed bound to be significantly tighter. Several examples are given, showing how to implement the theoretical result.     

Some new properties of the Riesz probability distribution

The Riesz probability distribution on any symmetric cone and, in particular, on the cone of positive definite symmetric matrices represents an important generalization of the Wishart and of the matrix gamma distributions containing them as particular examples. The present paper is a continuation of the investigation of the properties of this probability distribution. We first establish a property of invariance of this probability distributions by a subgroup of the orthogonal group. We then show that the Pierce components of a Riesz random variable are independent, and we determine their probability distributions. Some moments and some useful expectations related to the Riesz probability distribution are also calculated. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Irrationality of the sums of zeta values

In this paper, we establish a lower bound for the dimension of the vector spaces spanned over ? by 1 and the sums of the values of the Riemann zeta function at even and odd points. As a consequence, we obtain numerical results on the irrationality and linear independence of the sums of zeta values at even and odd points from a given interval of the positive integers.     

Some characterization results based on the conditional expectation of a function of non-adjacent order statistic (record value)

In this paper, we attempt to characterize a distribution by means ofE[ψ(X _k +s:n)|X _k:n =z]g(z), under some mild conditions on ψ(·) andg(·). An explicit result is provided in the case ofs=1 and a uniqueness result is proved in the case ofs=2. For the general case, an expression is provided for the conditional expectation. Similar results are proved for the record values, both in the continuous as well as in the discrete case (weak records).     

中药降脂灵片药效的因果分析

本文对一种新型中药降脂灵片的药效进行因果分析。实验数据样本量小且是混合变量类型,传统的统计方法难以处理,本文采用图模型的方法建立一个链图模型,直观地刻画了该药对反映机体抗氧化能力和血脂水平的4个指标的因果影响。