Measuring complexity in a business cycle model of the Kaldor type

The purpose of this paper is to study the dynamical behavior of a family of two-dimensional nonlinear maps associated to an economic model. Our objective is to measure the complexity of the system using techniques of symbolic dynamics in order to compute the topological entropy. The analysis of the variation of this important topological invariant with the parameters of the system, allows us to distinguish different chaotic scenarios. Finally, we use a another topological invariant to distinguish isentropic dynamics and we exhibit numerical results about maps with the same topological entropy. This work provides an illustration of how our understanding of higher dimensional economic models can be enhanced by the theory of dynamical systems.     

Stability and Hopf bifurcations in a business cycle model with delay

In this paper, a business cycle model with discrete delay is considered. We first investigate the stability of the equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcations, and then the direction and the stability criteria of the bifurcating periodic solutions are obtained by the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem. This research has an important theoretical value as well as practical meaning.     

A mean-reverting stochastic model for the political business cycle

In this article, we look at the political business cycle problem through the lens of uncertainty. The feedback control used by us is the famous NKPC with stochasticity and wage rigidities. We extend the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model to the continuous time stochastic set up with an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. We minimize relevant expected quadratic cost by solving the corresponding Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation. The basic intuition of the classical model is qualitatively carried forward in our set up but uncertainty also plays an important role in determining the optimal trajectory of the voter support function. The internal variability of the system acts as a base shifter for the support function in the risk neutral case. The role of uncertainty is even more prominent in the risk averse case where all the shape parameters are directly dependent on variability. Thus, in this case variability controls both the rates of change as well as the base shift parameters. To gain more insight we have also studied the model when the coefficients are time invariant and studied numerical solutions. The close relationship between the unemployment rate and the support function for the incumbent party is highlighted. The role of uncertainty in creating sampling fluctuation in this set up, possibly towards apparently anomalous results, is also explored.     

An alternative model of a nonlinear business cycle

The purpose of this paper is to develop a piecewise linear model to understand complex dynamics that arise out of sophisticated nonlinear macrodynamic models developed by Hicks and Goodwin. This piecewise analogue has several advantages: (i) it is a natural extension of a linear accelerator; (ii) it exhibits all the qualitative results of Goodwin's model; (iii) it enables one to conveniently derive newer bounds on output; and (iv) students find its representation appealing and understandable. The use of computer software is advocated for complex economic models that are described by systems of differential equations. To this end, the usefulness of STELLA (a Macintosh-based software) in verifying the qualitative predictions of the analysis, is illustrated.     

Dynamics of a delayed business cycle model with general investment function

The aim of this paper is to study the dynamics of a delayed business cycle model with general investment function. The model describes the interaction of the gross product and capital stock. Furthermore, the delay represents the time between the decision of investment and implementation. Firstly, we show that the model is well posed by proving the global existence and boundedness of solutions. Secondly, we determine the economic equilibrium of the model. By analyzing the characteristic equation, we investigate the stability of the economic equilibrium and the local existence of Hopf bifurcation. Also, the direction of the Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are derived by applying the normal form method and center manifold theory. Moreover, the global existence of bifurcating periodic solutions is established by using the global Hopf bifurcation theory. Finally, our theoretical results are illustrated with some numerical simulations.     

Nonlinear oscillations in business cycle model with time lags

In this paper we analyse the dynamics of the Kaldor–Kalecki business cycle model. This model is based on the classical Kaldor model in which capital stock changes are caused by past investment decisions. This lag is connected with time delay needed for new capital to be installed. The dynamics of the model is reduced to the form of damped oscillator with negative feedback connected with lag parameter and next it is analysed in terms of bifurcation theory. We find conditions for existence and persistence of oscillatory behaviour which is represented by limit cycle on some central manifold in phase space, i.e., single Hopf bifurcation. We demonstrate that the Hopf cycles may be exhibited for nonzero measure set of the parameter space. The conditions for bifurcation of co-dimension two connected with interaction of bifurcations as well as bifurcation diagrams are also given. Finally, we obtain numerical values describing an amplitude and a period of oscillation for different parameter of the system. It is also proved that while the investment function is not nonlinear a quasi-periodic solution (a 1:2 resonant double Hopf point) can appear. The source of such a behaviour is rather a consequence of time lag than nonlinearity of the investment function. Our results confirm the existence of asymmetric (two periodic) cycles in the Kaldor–Kalecki model with time-to-build.     

Zero-Hopf bifurcation analysis of a Kaldor-Kalecki model of business cycle with delay

The zero-Hopf singularity of a Kaldor-Kalecki model of business cycle with delay in both the gross product and the capital stock is investigated. By computing the normal forms for the system, the bifurcation diagrams such as saddle-node, pitch-fork, and Hopf bifurcations are obtained. A major obstacle is to solve singular linear systems when the third order terms in the normal form are computed. Some examples are presented to confirm the theoretical results.     

A dynamic IS-LM business cycle model with two time delays in capital accumulation equation

In this paper, we analyze a augmented IS-LM business cycle model with the capital accumulation equation that two time delays are considered in investment processes according to Kalecki’s idea. Applying stability switch criteria and Hopf bifurcation theory, we prove that time delays cause the equilibrium to lose or gain stability and Hopf bifurcation occurs.     

Codimension-2 bifurcations of the Kaldor model of business cycle

In this paper, complete analysis is presented to study codimension-2 bifurcations for the nonlinear Kaldor model of business cycle. Sufficient conditions are given for the model to demonstrate Bautin and Bogdanov–Takens (BT) bifurcations. By computing the first and second Lyapunov coefficients and performing nonlinear transformation, the normal forms are derived to obtain the bifurcation diagrams such as Hopf, homoclinic and double limit cycle bifurcations. Some examples are given to confirm the theoretical results.     

On the global asymptotic stability and oscillation of solutions in a stochastic business cycle model

We discuss a second order nonlinear stochastic difference equation which is constructed of a business cycle model with organized labor considered. A global asymptotic mean square stability criterion is obtained by Lyapunov function method. We also prove a theorem on the almost sure oscillation of the solutions for the difference equation with state-independent stochastic perturbations.     

Reductive-holistic cycle: A model for the study of the didactic procedure

The concept ofreality level may be useful as a catalyst among several systems in the area of knowledge. This concept is leading us to ask, if we can make a reduction from a reality level to another, that is to the problem ofreductionism. Relative to it is the problem ofholism. At the end these concepts are connected to the category theory and adjoint functors. Within the framework of this aspect we set up a model for the study of the didactic procedure. This model is a feedback system between two reality levels or categories, these of the teacher and of the student. So, the article seeks to enhance and improve the teaching of mathematics by its attempt to understand both student's and teacher's knowledge in the same terms.     

A degree condition implying that every matching is contained in a hamiltonian cycle

We give a degree sum condition for three independent vertices under which every matching of a graph lies in a hamiltonian cycle. We also show that the bound for the degree sum is almost the best possible.     

Some mathematical aspects of the political business cycle

Under the hypothesis of a myopic electorate, vote-loss-minimizing behavior by the party in power, subject to a dynamic inflation-unemployment relation, is shown to generate an attractive, stable electoral policy cycle. The model presented is derived, with some improvements, from the analogous models of MacRae and Nordhaus. Furthermore, an attempt is made to specify the mathematical aspects of the problem by the Poincaré mapping.This work was realized within the activities of CNR, Gruppo Nazionale Analisi Funzionale (GNAFA). The author wishes to thank Professor M. D. Intriligator for his many comments, suggestions, and critique.     

A note on the complexity of the transportation problem with a permutable demand vector

In this note we investigate the computational complexity of the transportation problem with a permutable demand vector, TP-PD for short. In the TP-PD, the goal is to permute the elements of the given integer demand vector b=(b₁,…,b_n) in order to minimize the overall transportation costs. Meusel and Burkard [6] recently proved that the TP-PD is strongly NP-hard. In their NP-hardness reduction, the used demand values b_j, j=1,…,n, are large integers. In this note we show that the TP-PD remains strongly NP-hard even for the case where b_j]{0,3} for j=1,…,n. As a positive result, we show that the TP-PD becomes strongly polynomial time solvable if b_j] {0,1,2} holds for j=1,…,n. This result can be extended to the case where b_j]{3,3+1,3+2} for an integer 3.     

Self-similar sets with an open set condition and great variety of overlaps

For a very simple family of self-similar sets with two pieces, we prove, using a technique of Solomyak, that the intersection of the pieces can be a Cantor set with any dimension in as well as a finite set of any cardinality . The main point is that the open set condition is fulfilled for all these examples.

     

Differential game model of the dynastic cycle: 3D-canonical system with a stable limit cycle

Ancient Chinese history reveals many examples of a cyclical pattern of social development connected with the rise and the decline of dynasties. In this paper, a possible explanation of the periodic alternation between despotism and anarchy by a dynamic game between the rulers and the bandits is offered. The third part of the society, the farmers, are dealt with as a renewable resource which is exploited by both players in a different manner. It is shown that the Nash solution of this one-state differential game may be a persistent cycle. Although we restrict the analysis to open-loop solutions, this result is of interest for at least two reasons. First, it provides one of the few existing dynamic economic games with periodic solutions. Second, and more important, the model is an example of a three-dimensional canonical system (one state, two costates) with a stable limit cycle as solution. As far as we see, our model provides up to now the simplest (i.e., lowest dimensional) case of a persistent periodic solution of an intertemporal decision problem.This research was partially supported by the Austrian Science Foundation under Contract No. P7783-PHY.Helpful comments of T. Basar, E. J. Dockner, R. F. Hartl, A. Mehlmann, G. Sorger, and F. Wirl as well as the generous help of George Leitmann are gratefully acknowledged.     

Upper bounds on the complexity of algebraic cryptanalysis of ciphers with a low multiplicative complexity

Lightweight cipher designs try to minimize the implementation complexity of the cipher while maintaining some specified security level. Using only a small number of AND gates lowers the implementation costs, and enables easier protections against side-channel attacks. In our paper we study the connection between the number of AND gates (multiplicative complexity) and the complexity of algebraic attacks. We model the encryption with multiple right-hand sides (MRHS) equations. The resulting equation system is transformed into a syndrome decoding problem. The complexity of the decoding problem depends on the number of AND gates, and on the relative number of known output bits with respect to the number of unknown key bits. This allows us to apply results from coding theory, and to explicitly connect the complexity of the algebraic cryptanalysis to the multiplicative complexity of the cipher. This means that we can provide asymptotic upper bounds on the complexity of algebraic attacks on selected families of ciphers based on the hardness of the decoding problem.     

Steady states in a structured epidemic model with Wentzell boundary condition

We introduce a non-linear structured population model with diffusion in the state space. Individuals are structured with respect to a continuous variable which represents a pathogen load. The class of uninfected individuals constitutes a special compartment that carries mass; hence the model is equipped with generalized Wentzell (or dynamic) boundary conditions. Our model is intended to describe the spread of infection of a vertically transmitted disease, for e.g., Wolbachia in a mosquito population. Therefore, the (infinite dimensional) non-linearity arises in the recruitment term. First, we establish global existence of solutions and the principle of linearised stability for our model. Then, in our main result, we formulate simple conditions which guarantee the existence of non-trivial steady states of the model. Our method utilises an operator theoretic framework combined with a fixed-point approach. Finally in the last section, we establish a sufficient condition for the local asymptotic stability of the positive steady state.