The Accuracy and the Computational Complexity of a Multivariate Binned Kernel Density Estimator

The computational cost of multivariate kernel density estimation can be reduced by prebinning the data. The data are discretized to a grid and a weighted kernel estimator is computed. We report results on the accuracy of such a binned kernel estimator and discuss the computational complexity of the estimator as measured by its average number of nonzero terms.     

A New Estimator for a Tail Index

We investigate properties of a new estimator for a tail index introduced by Davydov and co-workers. The main advantage of this estimator is the simplicity of the statistic used for the estimator. We provide results of simulation by comparing plots of our's and Hill's estimators.     

Asymptotic Normality of a Combined Regression Estimator

In this paper, we propose a combined regression estimator by using a parametric estimator and a nonparametric estimator of the regression function. The asymptotic distribution of this estimator is obtained for cases where the parametric regression model is correct, incorrect, and approximately correct. These distributional results imply that the combined estimator is superior to the kernel estimator in the sense that it can never do worse than the kernel estimator in terms of convergence rate and it has the same convergence rate as the parametric estimator in the case where the parametric model is correct. Unlike the parametric estimator, the combined estimator is robust to model misspecification. In addition, we also establish the asymptotic distribution of the estimator of the weight given to the parametric estimator in constructing the combined estimator. This can be used to construct consistent tests for the parametric regression model used to form the combined estimator.     

On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

Asymptotics for a weighted least squares estimator of the disease onset distribution function for a survival-sacrifice model

In carcinogenicity experiments with animals where the tumor is not palpable it is common to observe only the time of death of the animal, the cause of death (the tumor or another independent cause, as sacrifice) and whether the tumor was present at the time of death. These last two indicator variables are evaluated after an autopsy. A weighted least squares estimator for the distribution function of the disease onset was proposed. Asymptotic properties of that estimator are established here. We demonstrate its strong uniform consistency. A minimax lower bound for the estimation of the disease onset distribution is obtained, as well as the local asymptotic distribution for their estimator.     

The a Posteriori Error Estimator of SDG Method for Variable Coefficients Time-Harmonic Maxwell's Equations

In this paper, we study the a posteriori error estimator of SDG method for variable coefficients time-harmonic Maxwell's equations. We propose two a posteriori error estimators, one is the recovery-type estimator, and the other is the residual-type estimator. We first propose the curl-recovery method for the staggered discontinuous Galerkin method (SDGM), and based on the super-convergence result of the postprocessed solution, an asymptotically exact error estimator is constructed. The residual-type a posteriori error estimator is also proposed, and it's reliability and effectiveness are proved for variable coefficients time-harmonic Maxwell's equations. The efficiency and robustness of the proposed estimators is demonstrated by the numerical experiments.     

Locally Adaptive Wavelet Empirical Bayes Estimation of a Location Parameter

The traditional empirical Bayes (EB) model is considered with the parameter being a location parameter, in the situation when the Bayes estimator has a finite degree of smoothness and, possibly, jump discontinuities at several points. A nonlinear wavelet EB estimator based on wavelets with bounded supports is constructed, and it is shown that a finite number of jump discontinuities in the Bayes estimator do not affect the rate of convergence of the prior risk of the EB estimator to zero. It is also demonstrated that the estimator adjusts to the degree of smoothness of the Bayes estimator, locally, so that outside the neighborhoods of the points of discontinuities, the posterior risk has a high rate of convergence to zero. Hence, the technique suggested in the paper provides estimators which are significantly superior in several respects to those constructed earlier.     

Semiparametric Estimation of the State of a Dynamical System with Small Noise

We consider the problem of estimation of the state of a perturbed dynamical system by observing the trajectory of a diffusion process with known small diffusion coefficient. The drift coefficient is supposed to be an unknown regular function. Asymptotic minimax lower bounds for the risk of any estimator of the state are derived and the notion of efficiency is introduced. The naïve estimator for this problem is proposed and its basic properties are discussed. It emerges that this estimator is asymptotically efficient.     

Nonparametric estimation of cumulative incidence functions for competing risks data with missing cause of failure

In this paper, we develop a fully nonparametric approach for the estimation of the cumulative incidence function with Missing At Random right-censored competing risks data. We obtain results on the pointwise asymptotic normality as well as the uniform convergence rate of the proposed nonparametric estimator. A simulation study that serves two purposes is provided. First, it illustrates in detail how to implement our proposed nonparametric estimator. Second, it facilitates a comparison of the nonparametric estimator to a parametric counterpart based on the estimator of Lu and Liang (2008). The simulation results are generally very encouraging.     

Wavelet Threshold Estimation of a Regression Function with Random Design

The wavelet threshold estimator of a regression function for the random design is constructed. The optimal uniform convergence rate of the estimator in a ball of Besov Space B^s_p, q is proved under general assumptions. The adaptive wavelet threshold estimator with near-optimal convergence rate in a wide range of Besov scale is also constructed.     

Estimating the intensity of a cyclic Poisson process in the presence of linear trend

We construct and investigate a consistent kernel-type nonparametric estimator of the intensity function of a cyclic Poisson process in the presence of linear trend. It is assumed that only a single realization of the Poisson process is observed in a bounded window. We prove that the proposed estimator is consistent when the size of the window indefinitely expands. The asymptotic bias, variance, and the mean-squared error of the proposed estimator are also computed. A simulation study shows that the first order asymptotic approximations to the bias and variance of the estimator are not accurate enough. Second order terms for bias and variance were derived in order to be able to predict the numerical results in the simulation. Bias reduction of our estimator is also proposed.     

Sequential Estimation for a Functional of the Spectral Density of a Gaussian Stationary Process

Integral functional of the spectral density of stationary process is an important index in time series analysis. In this paper we consider the problem of sequential point and fixed-width confidence interval estimation of an integral functional of the spectral density for Gaussian stationary process. The proposed sequential point estimator is based on the integral functional replaced by the periodogram in place of the spectral density. Then it is shown to be asymptotically risk efficient as the cost per observation tends to zero. Next we provide a sequential interval estimator, which is asymptotically efficient as the width of the interval tends to zero. Finally some numerical studies will be given.     

Estimation of a change-point in the mean function of functional data

The paper develops a comprehensive asymptotic theory for the estimation of a change-point in the mean function of functional observations. We consider both the case of a constant change size, and the case of a change whose size approaches zero, as the sample size tends to infinity. We show how the limit distribution of a suitably defined change-point estimator depends on the size and location of the change. The theoretical insights are confirmed by a simulation study which illustrates the behavior of the estimator in finite samples.     

圆内二维均匀分布的参数估计

研究了圆内二维均匀分布的参数估计,利用次序统计量得到了圆的半径的估计量与置信区间.     

Whittle estimation in a heavy-tailed GARCH(1,1) model

The squares of a GARCH(p,q) process satisfy an ARMA equation with white noise innovations and parameters which are derived from the GARCH model. Moreover, the noise sequence of this ARMA process constitutes a strongly mixing stationary process with geometric rate. These properties suggest to apply classical estimation theory for stationary ARMA processes. We focus on the Whittle estimator for the parameters of the resulting ARMA model. Giraitis and Robinson (2000) show in this context that the Whittle estimator is strongly consistent and asymptotically normal provided the process has finite 8th moment marginal distribution.

We focus on the GARCH(1,1) case when the 8th moment is infinite. This case corresponds to various real-life log-return series of financial data. We show that the Whittle estimator is consistent as long as the 4th moment is finite and inconsistent when the 4th moment is infinite. Moreover, in the finite 4th moment case rates of convergence of the Whittle estimator to the true parameter are the slower, the fatter the tail of the distribution.

These findings are in contrast to ARMA processes with iid innovations. Indeed, in the latter case it was shown by Mikosch et al. (1995) that the rate of convergence of the Whittle estimator to the true parameter is the faster, the fatter the tails of the innovations distribution. Thus the analogy between a squared GARCH process and an ARMA process is misleading insofar that one of the classical estimation techniques, Whittle estimation, does not yield the expected analogy of the asymptotic behavior of the estimators.     

响应变量删失情况下线性模型的FIC模型选择和模型平均

本文给出了响应变量随机右删失情况下线性模型的FIC (focused information criterion) 模型选择方法和光滑FIC 模型平均估计方法, 证明了兴趣参数的FIC 模型选择估计和光滑FIC 模型平均估计的渐近正态性, 通过随机模拟研究了估计的有限样本性质, 模拟结果显示, 从均方误差和一定置信水平置信区间的经验覆盖概率看, 兴趣参数的光滑FIC 模型平均估计均优于FIC, AIC (Akaikeinformation criterion) 和BIC (Bayesian information citerion) 等模型选择估计; 而FIC 模型选择估计与AIC 和BIC 等模型选择估计相比, 也表现出了一定的优越性. 通过分析原发性胆汁性肝硬化数据集, 说明了本文方法在实际问题中的应用.     

具有重尾或异方差误差的双变量预测回归模型的中位无偏估计

In this paper, we consider median unbiased estimation of bivariate predictive regression models with non-normal, heavy-tailed or heterescedastic errors. We construct confidence intervals and median unbiased estimator for the parameter of interest. We show that the proposed estimator has better predictive potential than the usual least squares estimator via simulation. An empirical application to finance is given. And a possible extension of the estimation procedure to cointegration models is also described.     

Kullback-Leibler Information Consistent Estimation for Censored Data

This paper is intended as an investigation of parametric estimation for the randomly right censored data. In parametric estimation, the Kullback-Leibler information is used as a measure of the divergence of a true distribution generating a data relative to a distribution in an assumed parametric model M. When the data is uncensored, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is a consistent estimator of minimizing the Kullback-Leibler information, even if the assumed model M does not contain the true distribution. We call this property minimum Kullback-Leibler information consistency (MKLI-consistency). However, the MLE obtained by maximizing the likelihood function based on the censored data is not MKLI-consistent. As an alternative to the MLE, Oakes (1986, Biometrics, 42, 177–182) proposed an estimator termed approximate maximum likelihood estimator (AMLE) due to its computational advantage and potential for robustness. We show MKLI-consistency and asymptotic normality of the AMLE under the misspecification of the parametric model. In a simulation study, we investigate mean square errors of these two estimators and an estimator which is obtained by treating a jackknife corrected Kaplan-Meier integral as the log-likelihood. On the basis of the simulation results and the asymptotic results, we discuss comparison among these estimators. We also derive information criteria for the MLE and the AMLE under censorship, and which can be used not only for selecting models but also for selecting estimation procedures.     

Median Unbiased Estimation of Bivariate Predictive Regression Models with Heavy-tailed or Heteroscedastic Errors

In this paper, we consider median unbiased estimation of bivariate predictive regression models with non-normal, heavy-tailed or heteroscedastic errors. We construct confidence intervals and median unbiased estimator for the parameter of interest. We show that the proposed estimator has better predictive potential than the usual least squares estimator via simulation. An empirical application to finance is given. And a possible extension of the estimation procedure to cointegration models is also described.     

Convergence rate of the best-r-point-average estimator for the maximizer of a nonparametric regression function

The best-r-point-average (BRPA) estimator of the maximizer of a regression function, proposed in Changchien (in: M.T. Chao, P.E. Cheng (Eds.), Proceedings of the 1990 Taipei Symposium in Statistics, June 28–30, 1990, pp. 63–78) has certain merits over the estimators derived through the estimation of the regression function. Some of the properties of the BRPA estimator have been studied in Chen et al. (J. Multivariate Anal. 57 (1996) 191) and Bai and Huang (Sankhya: Indian J. Statist. Ser. A. 61 (Pt. 2) (1999) 208–217). In this article, we further study the properties of the BRPA estimator and give its convergence rate under some quite general conditions. Simulation results are presented for the illustration of the convergence rate. Some comparisons with existing estimators such as the Müller estimator are provided.