Importance Link Function Estimation for Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Abstract

This article focuses on improving estimation for Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed methodology is based upon the use of importance link functions. With the help of appropriate importance sampling weights, effective estimates of functionals are developed. The method is most easily applied to irreducible Markov chains, where application is typically immediate. An important conceptual point is the applicability of the method to reducible Markov chains through the use of many-to-many importance link functions. Applications discussed include estimation of marginal genotypic probabilities for pedigree data, estimation for models with and without influential observations, and importance sampling for a target distribution with thick tails.     

Efficient Quantile Estimation for Functional-Coefficient Partially Linear Regression Models

The quantile estimation methods are proposed for functional-coefficient partially linear regression (FCPLR) model by combining nonparametric and functional-coefficient regression (FCR) model. The local linear scheme and the integrated method are used to obtain local quantile estimators of all unknown functions in the FCPLR model. These resulting estimators are asymptotically normal, but each of them has big variance. To reduce variances of these quantile estimators, the one-step backfitting technique is used to obtain the efficient quantile estimators of all unknown functions, and their asymptotic normalities are derived. Two simulated examples are carried out to illustrate the proposed estimation methodology.     

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Convergence Assessment via Two-Way Analysis of Variance

Abstract

In this article we discuss the problem of assessing the performance of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms on the basis of simulation output. In essence, we extend the original ideas of Gelman and Rubin and, more recently, Brooks and Gelman, to problems where we are able to split the variation inherent within the MCMC simulation output into two distinct groups. We show how such a diagnostic may be useful in assessing the performance of MCMC samplers addressing model choice problems, such as the reversible jump MCMC algorithm. In the model choice context, we show how the reversible jump MCMC simulation output for parameters that retain a coherent interpretation throughout the simulation, can be used to assess convergence. By considering various decompositions of the sampling variance of this parameter, we can assess the performance of our MCMC sampler in terms of its mixing properties both within and between models and we illustrate our approach in both the graphical Gaussian models and normal mixtures context. Finally, we provide an example of the application of our diagnostic to the assessment of the influence of different starting values on MCMC simulation output, thereby illustrating the wider utility of our method beyond the Bayesian model choice and reversible jump MCMC context.     

A Monte Carlo Estimation of the Entropy for Markov Chains

We introduce an estimate of the entropy of the marginal density p ^t of a (eventually inhomogeneous) Markov chain at time t≥1. This estimate is based on a double Monte Carlo integration over simulated i.i.d. copies of the Markov chain, whose transition density kernel is supposed to be known. The technique is extended to compute the external entropy , where the p ₁ ^t s are the successive marginal densities of another Markov process at time t. We prove, under mild conditions, weak consistency and asymptotic normality of both estimators. The strong consistency is also obtained under stronger assumptions. These estimators can be used to study by simulation the convergence of p ^t to its stationary distribution. Potential applications for this work are presented: (1) a diagnostic by simulation of the stability property of a Markovian dynamical system with respect to various initial conditions; (2) a study of the rate in the Central Limit Theorem for i.i.d. random variables. Simulated examples are provided as illustration.      

Computationally Efficient Estimation for the Generalized Odds Rate Mixture Cure Model With Interval-Censored Data

For semiparametric survival models with interval-censored data and a cure fraction, it is often difficult to derive nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation due to the challenge in maximizing the complex likelihood function. In this article, we propose a computationally efficient EM algorithm, facilitated by a gamma-Poisson data augmentation, for maximum likelihood estimation in a class of generalized odds rate mixture cure (GORMC) models with interval-censored data. The gamma-Poisson data augmentation greatly simplifies the EM estimation and enhances the convergence speed of the EM algorithm. The empirical properties of the proposed method are examined through extensive simulation studies and compared with numerical maximum likelihood estimates. An R package “GORCure” is developed to implement the proposed method and its use is illustrated by an application to the Aerobic Center Longitudinal Study dataset. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

Bayesian and non-bayesian analysis of gamma stochastic frontier models by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods

Summary  This paper considers simulation-based approaches for the gamma stochastic frontier model. Efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are proposed for sampling the posterior distribution of the parameters. Maximum likelihood estimation is also discussed based on the stochastic approximation algorithm. The methods are applied to a data set of the U.S. electric utility industry. The authors are grateful to two anonymous referees for their useful comments, which improved an earlier version of the paper. The first author also thanks the financial support by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology under the Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research No.14730022.     

A Markov Chain Monte Carlo comparison of variance estimators for the sampling of particulate mixtures

During the sampling of particulate mixtures, samples taken are analyzed for their mass concentration, which generally has non‐zero sample‐to‐sample variance. Bias, variance, and mean squared error (MSE) of a number of variance estimators, derived by Geelhoed, were studied in this article. The Monte Carlo simulation was applied using an observable first‐order Markov Chain with transition probabilities that served as a model for the sample drawing process. Because the bias and variance of a variance estimator could depend on the specific circumstances under which it is applied, Monte Carlo simulation was performed for a wide range of practically relevant scenarios. Using the ‘smallest mean squared error’ as a criterion, an adaptation of an estimator based on a first‐order Taylor linearization of the sample concentration is the best. An estimator based on the Horvitz–Thompson estimator is not practically applicable because of the potentially high MSE for the cases studied. The results indicate that the Poisson estimator leads to a biased estimator for the variance of fundamental sampling error (up to 428% absolute value of relative bias) in case of low levels of grouping and segregation. The uncertainty of the results obtained by the simulations was also addressed and it was found that the results were not significantly affected. The potentials of a recently described other approach are discussed for extending the first‐order Markov Chain described here to account also for higher levels of grouping and segregation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一个有效估计:半参数非时齐扩散模型的局部线性复合分位回归估计

主要研究半参数非时齐扩散模型的参数估计问题.基于非时齐扩散模型的离散观测样本,首先得到漂移参数的局部线性复合分位回归估计,并证明估计量的渐近偏差、渐近方差和渐近正态性.其次,讨论了带宽的选择和局部线性复合分位回归估计关于局部线性最小二乘估计的渐近相对效,所得到的局部估计较局部线性最小二乘估计更为有效.最后,通过模拟说明了局部线性复合分位回归估计比局部线性最小二乘估计的模拟效果更好.     

Variational Bayes Estimation of Discrete-Margined Copula Models With Application to Time Series

We propose a new variational Bayes (VB) estimator for high-dimensional copulas with discrete, or a combination of discrete and continuous, margins. The method is based on a variational approximation to a tractable augmented posterior and is faster than previous likelihood-based approaches. We use it to estimate drawable vine copulas for univariate and multivariate Markov ordinal and mixed time series. These have dimension rT, where T is the number of observations and r is the number of series, and are difficult to estimate using previous methods. The vine pair-copulas are carefully selected to allow for heteroscedasticity, which is a feature of most ordinal time series data. When combined with flexible margins, the resulting time series models also allow for other common features of ordinal data, such as zero inflation, multiple modes, and under or overdispersion. Using six example series, we illustrate both the flexibility of the time series copula models and the efficacy of the VB estimator for copulas of up to 792 dimensions and 60 parameters. This far exceeds the size and complexity of copula models for discrete data that can be estimated using previous methods. An online appendix and MATLAB code implementing the method are available as supplementary materials.     

Asymptotics of an Efficient Monte Carlo Estimation for the Transition Density of Diffusion Processes

Discretized simulation is widely used to approximate the transition density of discretely observed diffusions. A recently proposed importance sampler, namely modified Brownian bridge, has gained much attention for its high efficiency relative to other samplers. It is unclear for this sampler, however, how to balance the trade-off between the number of imputed values and the number of Monte Carlo simulations under a given computing resource. This paper provides an asymptotically efficient allocation of computing resource to the importance sampling approach with a modified Brownian bridge as importance sampler. The optimal trade-off is established by investigating two types of errors: Euler discretization error and Monte Carlo error. The main results are illustrated with two simulated examples.      

Q-矩阵第一特征值估计的Monte Carlo方法

本文对给定的可逆马氏链所对应的 Q-矩阵给出了它的第一非零特征值的 Monte Carlo估计方法 .具体做法是通过增加一个状态构造一个新的可逆马氏链 ,然后利用增加状态的击中时分布去估计第一非零特征值 .     

用蒙特卡罗方法求取广义线性混合模型之最大似然估计:应用于求取乳癌死亡率之小区域估计

本文使用蒙特卡罗方法, 求得广义线性混合模型之最大似然估计, 并提供用来评估统计参数之收敛和精确度之实用方法\bd 仿真研究显示无偏之固定效应参数估计, 而方差分量估计之误差则相近于前人结果\bd 应用举例为使用泊松分布求取乳癌死亡率之小区域估计.     

On a Class of Shrinkage Priors for Covariance Matrix Estimation

We propose a flexible class of models based on scale mixture of uniform distributions to construct shrinkage priors for covariance matrix estimation. This new class of priors enjoys a number of advantages over the traditional scale mixture of normal priors, including its simplicity and flexibility in characterizing the prior density. We also exhibit a simple, easy to implement Gibbs sampler for posterior simulation, which leads to efficient estimation in high-dimensional problems. We first discuss the theory and computational details of this new approach and then extend the basic model to a new class of multivariate conditional autoregressive models for analyzing multivariate areal data. The proposed spatial model flexibly characterizes both the spatial and the outcome correlation structures at an appealing computational cost. Examples consisting of both synthetic and real-world data show the utility of this new framework in terms of robust estimation as well as improved predictive performance. Supplementary materials are available online.