The Graphical Horseshoe Estimator for Inverse Covariance Matrices

We develop a new estimator of the inverse covariance matrix for high-dimensional multivariate normal data using the horseshoe prior. The proposed graphical horseshoe estimator has attractive properties compared to other popular estimators, such as the graphical lasso and the graphical smoothly clipped absolute deviation. The most prominent benefit is that when the true inverse covariance matrix is sparse, the graphical horseshoe provides estimates with small information divergence from the sampling model. The posterior mean under the graphical horseshoe prior can also be almost unbiased under certain conditions. In addition to these theoretical results, we also provide a full Gibbs sampler for implementing our estimator. MATLAB code is available for download from github at http://github.com/liyf1988/GHS. The graphical horseshoe estimator compares favorably to existing techniques in simulations and in a human gene network data analysis. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Precision Matrix Estimation by Inverse Principal Orthogonal Decomposition

We investigate the structure of a large precision matrix in Gaussian graphical models by decomposing it into a low rank component and a remainder part with sparse precision matrix.Based on the decomposition,we propose to estimate the large precision matrix by inverting a principal orthogonal decomposition(IPOD).The IPOD approach has appealing practical interpretations in conditional graphical models given the low rank component,and it connects to Gaussian graphical models with latent variables.Specifically,we show that the low rank component in the decomposition of the large precision matrix can be viewed as the contribution from the latent variables in a Gaussian graphical model.Compared with existing approaches for latent variable graphical models,the IPOD is conveniently feasible in practice where only inverting a low-dimensional matrix is required.To identify the number of latent variables,which is an objective of its own interest,we investigate and justify an approach by examining the ratios of adjacent eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix?Theoretical properties,numerical examples,and a real data application demonstrate the merits of the IPOD approach in its convenience,performance,and interpretability.     

Bayesian Estimation of Large Precision Matrix Based on Cholesky Decomposition

In this paper, we consider the estimation of a high dimensional precision matrix of Gaussian graphical model. Based on the re-parameterized likelihood, we obtain the full conditional distribution of all parameters in Cholesky factor. Furthermore, by imposing the prior information, we obtain the shrinkage Bayesian estimator of large precision matrix, and establish the asymptotic distribution of all parameters in the Cholesky factor. At last, we demonstrate our method through the simulation study and an application to telephone call center data.     

Estimation of Symmetry-Constrained Gaussian Graphical Models: Application to Clustered Dense Networks

We propose a model selection algorithm for high-dimensional clustered data. Our algorithm combines a classical penalized likelihood method with a composite likelihood approach in the framework of colored graphical Gaussian models. Our method is designed to identify high-dimensional dense networks with a large number of edges but sparse edge classes. Its empirical performance is demonstrated through simulation studies and a network analysis of a gene expression dataset.     

误差协方差阵的经验Bayes估计的收敛速度

本文利用密度的混合偏导数的核估计，构造出线性模型中误差协方差阵的逆的经验Ｂａｙｅｓ（ＥＢ）估计，在一定条件下，还证明了ＥＢ估计的收敛速度可任意接近于１，最后，给出了一个实例。     

方差分量模型协方差阵的谱分解

本文对平衡方差分量模型, 给出了其协方差阵的新的谱分解算法. 该方法的特点是计算简单, 易于理解, 无须复杂的数学知识. 且能够明确显示协方差阵的不同特征值的个数, 以及谱分解中不同特征值所对应的投影阵的显式表示. 基于新方法我们进一步研究了平衡方差分量模型的一些相关性质.本文还研究了一般方差分量模型, 我们首先定义了一般方差分量模型协方差阵的简单谱分解,给出了一般方差分量模型可以进行简单谱分解的充要条件, 并研究了协方差阵简单谱分解的一些性质. 对于协方差阵可以进行简单谱分解的方差分量模型, 本文研究了简单谱分解在其统计推断中的应用.     

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In this paper, we put non-concave penalty on the local conditional likelihood. We obtain the oracle property and asymptotic normal distribution property of the parameters in Ising model. With a union band, we obtain the sign consistence for the estimator of parameter matrix, and the convergence speed under the matrix $L_1$ norm. The results of the simulation studies and a real data analysis show that the non-concave penalized estimator has larger sensitivity.     

On a Class of Shrinkage Priors for Covariance Matrix Estimation

We propose a flexible class of models based on scale mixture of uniform distributions to construct shrinkage priors for covariance matrix estimation. This new class of priors enjoys a number of advantages over the traditional scale mixture of normal priors, including its simplicity and flexibility in characterizing the prior density. We also exhibit a simple, easy to implement Gibbs sampler for posterior simulation, which leads to efficient estimation in high-dimensional problems. We first discuss the theory and computational details of this new approach and then extend the basic model to a new class of multivariate conditional autoregressive models for analyzing multivariate areal data. The proposed spatial model flexibly characterizes both the spatial and the outcome correlation structures at an appealing computational cost. Examples consisting of both synthetic and real-world data show the utility of this new framework in terms of robust estimation as well as improved predictive performance. Supplementary materials are available online.     

线性模型参数矩阵的二次型的经验Bayes估计的收敛速度

本文构造出正态线性模型误差协差阵的逆矩阵的二次型的经验Ｂａｙｅｓ（ＥＲ）估计，在一定条件下证明了这种ＥＢ估计的收敛速度可任意接近于１．最后，给出了一个实例．     

Selection of the Regularization Parameter in Graphical Models Using Network Characteristics

Gaussian graphical models represent the underlying graph structure of conditional dependence between random variables, which can be determined using their partial correlation or precision matrix. In a high-dimensional setting, the precision matrix is estimated using penalized likelihood by adding a penalization term, which controls the amount of sparsity in the precision matrix and totally characterizes the complexity and structure of the graph. The most commonly used penalization term is the L1 norm of the precision matrix scaled by the regularization parameter, which determines the trade-off between sparsity of the graph and fit to the data. In this article, we propose several procedures to select the regularization parameter in the estimation of graphical models that focus on recovering reliably the appropriate network structure of the graph. We conduct an extensive simulation study to show that the proposed methods produce useful results for different network topologies. The approaches are also applied in a high-dimensional case study of gene expression data with the aim to discover the genes relevant to colon cancer. Using these data, we find graph structures, which are verified to display significant biological gene associations. Supplementary material is available online.     

Adaptive estimation of the transition density of a Markov chain

In this paper a new estimator for the transition density π of an homogeneous Markov chain is considered. We introduce an original contrast derived from regression framework and we use a model selection method to estimate π under mild conditions. The resulting estimate is adaptive with an optimal rate of convergence over a large range of anisotropic Besov spaces . Some simulations are also presented.     

Estimation of Semiparametric Models in the Presence of Endogeneity and Sample Selection

We analyze a semiparametric model for data that suffer from the problems of sample selection, where some of the data are observed for only part of the sample with a probability that depends on a selection equation, and of endogeneity, where a covariate is correlated with the disturbance term. The introduction of nonparametric functions in the model permits great flexibility in the way covariates affect response variables. We present an efficient Bayesian method for the analysis of such models that allows us to consider general systems of outcome variables and endogenous regressors that are continuous, binary, censored, or ordered. Estimation is by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The algorithm we propose does not require simulation of the outcomes that are missing due to the selection mechanism, which reduces the computational load and improves the mixing of the MCMC chain. The approach is applied to a model of women’s labor force participation and log-wage determination. Data and computer code used in this article are available online.     

基于参数估计线性回归模型选择的研究

关于线性回归模型选择 ,[1 ]中介绍了许多方法 ,他们均基于残差平方和下建立的选择准则 .本文试基于参数估计的理论给出一种方法 ,从参数估计的优良性质上来说 ,我们认为是合理的 .同时给出了计算方法及应用实例 .     

On Least Squares Estimation for Stable Nonlinear AR Processes

Following a Markov chain approach, this paper establishes asymptotic properties of the least squares estimator in nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) models. Based on conditions ensuring the stability of the model and allowing the use of a strong law of large number for a wide class of functions, our approach improves some known results on strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator. The exact convergence rate is established by a law of the iterated logarithm. Based on this law and a generalized Akaike's information criterion, we build a strongly consistent procedure for selection of NAR models. Detailed results are given for familiar nonlinear AR models like exponential AR models, threshold models or multilayer feedforward perceptions.     

Estimation of the parameters for unstable AR models

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关于我国2010年人口普查事后质量检查样本量测算的建议

同以往历次进行的人口普查一样,我国在2010年第六次人口普查后也将进行事后质量检查。样本量估计是抽取事后质量检查样本之前必须要做的一项工作。本人建议,用2000年人口普查事后质量检查样本资料估计其抽样方案的设计效应,然后用这个设计效应估计2010年在既定精度要求下所需要的样本量。     

线性模型下F-检验最优的误差协方差结构

文献中回归参数线性假设的F-检验统计量主要包括基于广义最小二乘估计F- 统计量F(θ),基于最小二乘估计的F-统计量FLSE以及Wu C．F．J．等于1988年提出的调整的F-统计量FA(θ)．其中后两者因形式简单而常常被广泛采用．本文主要研究了FA(θ)和FLSE的最优性,并分别获得了FA(θ)=F(θ)和ELSE=F(θ)的充要条件．最后,我们将所得的结果应用到医药领域的两类重要模型．     

捕食模型高精度参数的估计

研究了捕食者模型在多种观测值条件下的非线性微分方程组参数拟合问题.首先利用龙格-库塔法进行微分方程数值计算,通过首次积分项变形建立线性回归方程,进行最小二乘拟合;其次,考虑到实验数据包含随机误差的扰动,引进正规方程组对模型进行误差分析;最后针对时间变量也出现误差,采用拉依达准则筛选,然后提出了一种较为简单的参数分段动态估计算法.     

Estimation of the Scale Matrix and its Eigenvalues in the Wishart and the Multivariate F Distributions

In this paper, the problem of estimating the scale matrix and their eigenvalues in a Wishart distribution and in a multivariate F distribution (which arise naturally from a two-sample setting) are considered. A new class of estimators which shrink the eigenvalues towards their arithmetic mean are proposed. It is shown that the new estimator which dominates the usual unbiased estimator under the squared error loss function. A simulation study was carried out to study the performance of these estimators.     

Bayesian Estimation for the Order of INAR(q) Mo del

In this paper, we consider the problem of determining the order of INAR(q) model on the basis of the Bayesian estimation theory. The Bayesian es-timator for the order is given with respect to a squared-error loss function. The consistency of the estimator is discussed. The results of a simulation study for the estimation method are presented.