Strong consistency and CLT for the random decrement estimator

The random decrement technique （RDT）, introduced in the sixties by Cole [NASA CR- 2005, 1973], is a very performing method of analysis for vibration signature of a structure under ambient loading. But the real nature of the random decrement signature has been misunderstood until now. Moreover, the various interpretations were made in continuous time setting, while real experimental data are obtained in discrete time. In this paper, the really implemental discrete time algorithms are studied. The asymptotic analysis as the number of triggering points go to infinity is achieved, and a Law of Large Numbers as well as a Central Limit Theorem is proved. Moreover, the limit as the discretization time step goes to zero is computed, giving more tractable formulas to approximate the random decrement. This is a new approach of the famous ＂Kac-Slepian paradox＂ [Ann. Math. Star., 30, 1215-1228 （1959）]. The main point might be that the RDT is a very efficient functional estimator of the correlation function of a stationary ergodic Gaussian process. Very fast, it is to classical estimators what Fast Fourier Transform （FFT） is to ordinary Discrete Fourier Transforms.     

Strong consistency properties of nonparametric estimators for randomly censored data,I: The product-limit estimator

In reliability and survival-time studies one frequently encounters the followingrandom censorship model:X ₁,Y ₁,X ₂,Y ₂, is an independent sequence of nonnegative rv's, theX _n' s having common distributionF and theY _n' s having common distributionG, Z _n =min{X _n ,Y _n },T _n =I[X _n <-Y _n ]; ifX _n represents the (potential) time to death of then-th individual in the sample andY _n is his (potential) censoring time thenZ _n represents the actual observation time andT _n represents the type of observation (T _n =O is a censoring,T _n =1 is a death). One way to estimateF from the observationsZ ₁.T ₁,Z ₂,T ₂, (and without recourse to theX _n' s) is by means of theproduct limit estimator (Kaplan andMeier [6]). It is shown that a.s., uniformly on [0,T] ifH(T ^–)<1 wherel–H=(l–F) (l–G), uniformly onR if whereT _F =sup {x:F(x)<1}; rates of convergence are also established. These results are used in Part II of this study to establish strong consistency of some density and failure rate estimators based on .The third author's research was partly supported by National Research Council of Canada     

Strong uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of a kernel based error density estimator in functional autoregressive models

Estimating the innovation probability density is an important issue in any regression analysis. This paper focuses on functional autoregressive models. A residual-based kernel estimator is proposed for the innovation density. Asymptotic properties of this estimator depend on the average prediction error of the functional autoregressive function. Sufficient conditions are studied to provide strong uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of the kernel density estimator.     

ON THE UNIFORM CONSISTENCY OF THEKAPLAN-MEIER ESTIMATOR UNDER HEAVY CENSORING

Let X,i.i.d. and Y1i. i.d. be two sequences of random variables with unknown distribution functions F(x) and G(y) respectively. X, are censored by Y1. In this paper we study the uniform consistency of the Kaplan-Meier estimator under the case ey=sup(t:F(t)＜1)＞to=sup(t2G(t)＜1) The sufficient condition is discussed.     

Strong approximations of the quantile process of the product-limit estimator

The quantile process of the product-limit estimator (PL-quantile process) in the random censorship model from the right is studied via strong approximation methods. Some almost sure fluctuation properties of the said process are studied. Sections 3 and 4 contain strong approximations of the PL-quantile process by a generalized Kiefer process. The PL and PL-quantile processes by the same appropriate Kiefer process are approximated and it is demonstrated that this simultaneous approximation cannot be improved in general. Section 5 contains functional LIL for the PL-quantile process and also three methods of constructing confidence bands for theoretical quantiles in the random censorship model from the right.     

The rate of strong uniform consistency for the multivariate product-limit estimator

The general asymptotic order of magnitude is determined for the maximal deviation of the multivariate product-limit estimate from the estimated survival function on R^k. This order depends on the joint behavior of the censoring and censored distributions in a well-defined way. Corresponding to specific joint behaviors, several lim sup results are deduced generalizing everything that is known in the univariate case. The results are also extended for the variable censoring model.     

Uniform in bandwidth consistency of the kernel-type estimator of the Shannon's entropy

We establish uniform-in-bandwidth consistency for kernel-type estimators of the differential entropy. Our proofs rely on the methods of Einmahl and Mason (2005) [10].     

Some test statistics based on the martingale term of the empirical distribution function

Summary It is proved that the martingale term of the empirical distribution function converges weakly to a Gaussian process inD[0, 1]. Some statistics for goodness-of-fit tests based on the martingale term of the empirical distribution function are proposed. Asymptotic distributions of these statistics under the null hypothesis are given. The approximate Bahadur efficiencies of the statistics to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and to the Cramér-von Mises statistic are also calculated. The Institute of Statistical Mathematics     

A note on the universal consistency of the kernel distribution function estimator

The problem of universal consistency of data driven bandwidth selectors for the kernel distribution estimator is analyzed. We provide a uniform in bandwidth result for the kernel estimate of a continuous distribution function. Our smoothness assumption is minimal in the sense that if the true distribution function has some discontinuity then the kernel estimate is no longer consistent.     

Strong consistency of automatic kernel regression estimates

Regression function estimation from independent and identically distributed bounded data is considered. TheL ₂ error with integration with respect to the design measure is used as an error criterion. It is shown that the kernel regression estimate with an arbitrary random bandwidth is weakly and strongly consistent forall distributions whenever the random bandwidth is chosen from some deterministic interval whose upper and lower bounds satisfy the usual conditions used to prove consistency of the kernel estimate for deterministic bandwidths. Choosing discrete bandwidths by cross-validation allows to weaken the conditions on the bandwidths. Research supported by DAAD, NSERC and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. The research of the second author was completed during his stay at the Technical University of Szczecin, Poland.     

Strong consistency of M-estimates in linear models

The strong consistency of M-estimates of the regression coefficients in a linear model under some mild conditions is established, which is an essential improvement over the relevant results in the literature on the moment condition. Especially, in some important circumstances, onlyE|ψ(e_k)|^q for some q > 1 is needed, where ψ{e_k} is some score function of random error.     

Strong consistency of the mean on randomly deleted sets

Suppose 0t ₁<t ₂<... are fixed points in time. At timet _k , a unit with magnitudeX _k and lifetimeL _k enters a population or is placed into a system. Suppose that theX _k 's are i.i.d. withEX ₁=, theL _k 's are i.i.d., and that theX _k 's andL _k 's are independent. In this paper we find conditions under which the continuous time process Avr{X _k :t _k t<t _k +L _k } is almost surely convergent to . We also demonstrate the sharpness of these conditions.     

Strong consistency of the MLE for sequential design problems

Under mild smoothness conditions on the densities, it is shown that for the sequential design problem with compact experiment space the sequence of maximum likelihood estimators is strongly consistent.     

Asymptotic distribution of the nonparametric distribution estimator based on a martingale approach in doubly censored data

For analysis of time-to-event data with incomplete information beyond right-censoring, many generalizations of the inference of the distribution and regression model have been proposed. However, the development of martingale approaches in this area has not progressed greatly, while for right-censored data such an approach has spread widely to study the asymptotic properties of estimators and to derive regression diagnosis methods. In this paper, focusing on doubly censored data, we discuss a martingale approach for inference of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE). We formulate a martingale structure of the NPMLE using a score function of the semiparametric profile likelihood. Finally, an expression of the asymptotic distribution of the NPMLE is derived more conveniently without depending on an infinite matrix expression as in previous research. A further useful point is that a variance-covariance formula of the NPMLE computable in a larger sample is obtained as an empirical version of the limit form presented here.     

Existence and consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator for the extreme value index

The paper is about the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator for the extreme value index. Under the second order condition, Drees et al. [H. Drees, A. Ferreira, L. de Haan, On maximum likelihood estimation of the extreme value index, Ann. Appl. Probab. 14 (2004) 1179-1201] proved asymptotic normality for any solution of the likelihood equations (with shape parameter γ>−1/2) that is not too far off the real value. But they did not prove that there is a solution of the equations satisfying the restrictions.In this paper, the existence is proved, even for γ>−1. The proof just uses the domain of attraction condition (first order condition), not the second order condition. It is also proved that the estimator is consistent. When the second order condition is valid, following the current proof, the existence of a solution satisfying the restrictions in the above-cited reference is a direct consequence.     

Ergodicity of observation-driven time series models and consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator

This paper deals with a general class of observation-driven time series models with a special focus on time series of counts. We provide conditions under which there exist strict-sense stationary and ergodic versions of such processes. The consistency of the maximum likelihood estimators is then derived for well-specified and misspecified models.     

Rate of strong consistency of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator in quasi-likelihood nonlinear models

Quasi-likelihood nonlinear models （QLNM） include generalized linear models as a special case. Under some regularity conditions, the rate of the strong consistency of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimation （MQLE） is obtained in QLNM. In an important case, this rate is O（n-^1/2（loglogn）^1/2）, which is just the rate of LIL of partial sums for i.i.d variables, and thus cannot be improved anymore.