Short sales in Log-robust portfolio management

This paper extends the Log-robust portfolio management approach to the case with short sales, i.e., the case where the manager can sell shares he does not yet own. We model the continuously compounded rates of return, which have been established in the literature as the true drivers of uncertainty, as uncertain parameters belonging to polyhedral uncertainty sets, and maximize the worst-case portfolio wealth over that set in a one-period setting. The degree of the manager’s aversion to ambiguity is incorporated through a single, intuitive parameter, which determines the size of the uncertainty set. The presence of short-selling requires the development of problem-specific techniques, because the optimization problem is not convex. In the case where assets are independent, we show that the robust optimization problem can be solved exactly as a series of linear programming problems; as a result, the approach remains tractable for large numbers of assets. We also provide insights into the structure of the optimal solution. In the case of correlated assets, we develop and test a heuristic where correlation is maintained only between assets invested in. In computational experiments, the proposed approach exhibits superior performance to that of the traditional robust approach.     

A note on issues of over-conservatism in robust optimization with cost uncertainty

We identify and discuss issues of hidden over-conservatism in robust linear optimization, when the uncertainty set is polyhedral with a budget of uncertainty constraint. The decision-maker selects the budget of uncertainty to reflect his degree of risk aversion, i.e. the maximum number of uncertain parameters that can take their worst-case value. In the first setting, the cost coefficients of the linear programming problem are uncertain, as is the case in portfolio management with random stock returns. We provide an example where, for moderate values of the budget, the optimal solution becomes independent of the nominal values of the parameters, i.e. is completely disconnected from its nominal counterpart, and discuss why this happens. The second setting focusses on linear optimization with uncertain upper bounds on the decision variables, which has applications in revenue management with uncertain demand and can be rewritten as a piecewise linear problem with cost uncertainty. We show in an example that it is possible to have more demand parameters equal their worst-case value than what is allowed by the budget of uncertainty, although the robust formulation is correct. We explain this apparent paradox.     

Diversification limit of quantiles under dependence uncertainty

In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the portfolio diversification ratio based on Value-at-Risk (quantile) under dependence uncertainty, which we refer to as “worst-case diversification limit”. We show that the worst-case diversification limit is equal to the upper limit of the worst-case diversification ratio under mild conditions on the portfolio marginal distributions. In the case of regularly varying margins, we provide explicit values for the worst-case diversification limit. Under the framework of dependence uncertainty the worst-case diversification limit is significantly higher compared to classic results obtained in the literature of multivariate regularly varying distributions. The results carried out in this paper bring together extreme value theory and dependence uncertainty, two popular topics in the recent study of risk aggregation.     

Robust portfolio optimization with derivative insurance guarantees

Robust portfolio optimization aims to maximize the worst-case portfolio return given that the asset returns are allowed to vary within a prescribed uncertainty set. If the uncertainty set is not too large, the resulting portfolio performs well under normal market conditions. However, its performance may substantially degrade in the presence of market crashes, that is, if the asset returns materialize far outside of the uncertainty set. We propose a novel robust optimization model for designing portfolios that include European-style options. This model trades off weak and strong guarantees on the worst-case portfolio return. The weak guarantee applies as long as the asset returns are realized within the prescribed uncertainty set, while the strong guarantee applies for all possible asset returns. The resulting model constitutes a convex second-order cone program, which is amenable to efficient numerical solution procedures. We evaluate the model using simulated and empirical backtests and analyze the impact of the insurance guarantees on the portfolio performance.     

A Review on Ambiguity in Stochastic Portfolio Optimization

In mean-risk portfolio optimization, it is typically assumed that the assets follow a known distribution P ₀, which is estimated from observed data. Aiming at an investment strategy which is robust against possible misspecification of P ₀, the portfolio selection problem is solved with respect to the worst-case distribution within a Wasserstein-neighborhood of P ₀. We review tractable formulations of the portfolio selection problem under model ambiguity, as it is called in the literature. For instance, it is known that high model ambiguity leads to equally-weighted portfolio diversification. However, it often happens that the marginal distributions of the assets can be estimated with high accuracy, whereas the dependence structure between the assets remains ambiguous. This leads to the problem of portfolio selection under dependence uncertainty. We show that in this case portfolio concentration becomes optimal as the uncertainty with respect to the estimated dependence structure increases. Hence, distributionally robust portfolio optimization can have two very distinct implications: Diversification on the one hand and concentration on the other hand.     

Distributionally robust chance-constrained games: existence and characterization of Nash equilibrium

We consider an n-player finite strategic game. The payoff vector of each player is a random vector whose distribution is not completely known. We assume that the distribution of a random payoff vector of each player belongs to a distributional uncertainty set. We define a distributionally robust chance-constrained game using worst-case chance constraint. We consider two types of distributional uncertainty sets. We show the existence of a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium of a distributionally robust chance-constrained game corresponding to both types of distributional uncertainty sets. For each case, we show a one-to-one correspondence between a Nash equilibrium of a game and a global maximum of a certain mathematical program.     

Robust portfolio choice with CVaR and VaR under distribution and mean return ambiguity

We consider the problem of optimal portfolio choice using the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures for a market consisting of n risky assets and a riskless asset and where short positions are allowed. When the distribution of returns of risky assets is unknown but the mean return vector and variance/covariance matrix of the risky assets are fixed, we derive the distributionally robust portfolio rules. Then, we address uncertainty (ambiguity) in the mean return vector in addition to distribution ambiguity, and derive the optimal portfolio rules when the uncertainty in the return vector is modeled via an ellipsoidal uncertainty set. In the presence of a riskless asset, the robust CVaR and VaR measures, coupled with a minimum mean return constraint, yield simple, mean-variance efficient optimal portfolio rules. In a market without the riskless asset, we obtain a closed-form portfolio rule that generalizes earlier results, without a minimum mean return restriction.     

Robust optimization and portfolio selection: The cost of robustness

Robust optimization is a tractable alternative to stochastic programming particularly suited for problems in which parameter values are unknown, variable and their distributions are uncertain. We evaluate the cost of robustness for the robust counterpart to the maximum return portfolio optimization problem. The uncertainty of asset returns is modelled by polyhedral uncertainty sets as opposed to the earlier proposed ellipsoidal sets. We derive the robust model from a min-regret perspective and examine the properties of robust models with respect to portfolio composition. We investigate the effect of different definitions of the bounds on the uncertainty sets and show that robust models yield well diversified portfolios, in terms of the number of assets and asset weights.     

工件具有任意尺寸的混合分批平行机排序问题的近似算法

本文考虑了工件具有任意尺寸且机器有容量限制的混合分批平行机排序问题。在该问题中, 一个待加工的工件集需在多台平行批处理机上进行加工。每个工件有它的加工时间和尺寸, 每台机器可以同时处理多个工件, 称为一个批, 只要这些工件尺寸之和不超过其容量; 一个批的加工时间等于该批中工件的最大加工时间和总加工时间的加权和; 目标函数是极小化最大完工时间。该问题包含一维装箱问题为其特殊情形, 为强NP-困难的。对此给出了一个$\left( {2 + 2\alpha+\alpha^{2}}\right)$-近似算法, 其中$\alpha$为给定的权重参数, 满足考虑了不同于Goldfarb和Iyengar （2003）的因子模型,通过横截面回归分析以及Fama-MacBeth估计构造了关于资产的平均收益向量和协方差矩阵的不确定性集合（置信区域）。基于这些不确定性集合以及Markowitz“均值-方差模型”的鲁棒投资组合问题,提出了多个鲁棒投资组合问题,并对应的推导出其等价的半正定规划形式,使得问题可以在多项式时间内求解。     

Worst-case robust decisions for multi-period mean–variance portfolio optimization

In this paper, we extend the multi-period mean–variance optimization framework to worst-case design with multiple rival return and risk scenarios. Our approach involves a min–max algorithm and a multi-period mean–variance optimization framework for the stochastic aspects of the scenario tree. Multi-period portfolio optimization entails the construction of a scenario tree representing a discretised estimate of uncertainties and associated probabilities in future stages. The expected value of the portfolio return is maximized simultaneously with the minimization of its variance. There are two sources of further uncertainty that might require a strengthening of the robustness of the decision. The first is that some rival uncertainty scenarios may be too critical to consider in terms of probabilities. The second is that the return variance estimate is usually inaccurate and there are different rival estimates, or scenarios. In either case, the best decision has the additional property that, in terms of risk and return, performance is guaranteed in view of all the rival scenarios. The ex-ante performance of min–max models is tested using historical data and backtesting results are presented.     

Filter‐based portfolio strategies in an HMM setting with varying correlation parametrizations

We consider portfolio optimization in a regime‐switching market. The assets of the portfolio are modeled through a hidden Markov model (HMM) in discrete time, where drift and volatility of the single assets are allowed to switch between different states. We consider different parametrizations of the involved asset covariances: statewise uncorrelated assets (though linked through the common Markov chain), assets correlated in a state‐independent way, and assets where the correlation varies from state to state. As a benchmark, we also consider a model without regime switches. We utilize a filter‐based expectation‐maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain optimal parameter estimates within this multivariate HMM and present parameter estimators in all three HMM settings. We discuss the impact of these different models on the performance of several portfolio strategies. Our findings show that for simulated returns, our strategies in many settings outperform naïve investment strategies, like the equal weights strategy. Information criteria can be used to detect the best model for estimation as well as for portfolio optimization. A second study using real data confirms these findings.     

Robust international portfolio management

We present an international portfolio optimization model where we take into account the two different sources of return of an international asset: the local returns denominated in the local currency, and the returns on the foreign exchange rates. The explicit consideration of the returns on exchange rates introduces non-linearities in the model, both in the objective function (return maximization) and in the triangulation requirement of the foreign exchange rates. The uncertainty associated with both types of returns is incorporated directly in the model by the use of robust optimization techniques. We show that, by using appropriate assumptions regarding the formulation of the uncertainty sets, the proposed model has a semidefinite programming formulation and can be solved efficiently. While robust optimization provides a guaranteed minimum return inside the uncertainty set considered, we also discuss an extension of our formulation with additional guarantees through trading in quanto options for the foreign assets and in equity options for the domestic assets.     

Portfolio selection under distributional uncertainty: A relative robust CVaR approach

Robust optimization, one of the most popular topics in the field of optimization and control since the late 1990s, deals with an optimization problem involving uncertain parameters. In this paper, we consider the relative robust conditional value-at-risk portfolio selection problem where the underlying probability distribution of portfolio return is only known to belong to a certain set. Our approach not only takes into account the worst-case scenarios of the uncertain distribution, but also pays attention to the best possible decision with respect to each realization of the distribution. We also illustrate how to construct a robust portfolio with multiple experts (priors) by solving a sequence of linear programs or a second-order cone program.     

When are static and adjustable robust optimization problems with constraint-wise uncertainty equivalent?

Adjustable robust optimization (ARO) generally produces better worst-case solutions than static robust optimization (RO). However, ARO is computationally more difficult than RO. In this paper, we provide conditions under which the worst-case objective values of ARO and RO problems are equal. We prove that when the uncertainty is constraint-wise, the problem is convex with respect to the adjustable variables and concave with respect to the uncertain parameters, the adjustable variables lie in a convex and compact set and the uncertainty set is convex and compact, then robust solutions are also optimal for the corresponding ARO problem. Furthermore, we prove that if some of the uncertain parameters are constraint-wise and the rest are not, then under a similar set of assumptions there is an optimal decision rule for the ARO problem that does not depend on the constraint-wise uncertain parameters. Also, we show for a class of problems that using affine decision rules that depend on all of the uncertain parameters yields the same optimal objective value as when the rules depend solely on the non-constraint-wise uncertain parameters. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of these results by applying them to convex quadratic and conic quadratic problems.     

Variable-sized uncertainty and inverse problems in robust optimization

In robust optimization, the general aim is to find a solution that performs well over a set of possible parameter outcomes, the so-called uncertainty set. In this paper, we assume that the uncertainty size is not fixed, and instead aim at finding a set of robust solutions that covers all possible uncertainty set outcomes. We refer to these problems as robust optimization with variable-sized uncertainty. We discuss how to construct smallest possible sets of min–max robust solutions and give bounds on their size.A special case of this perspective is to analyze for which uncertainty sets a nominal solution ceases to be a robust solution, which amounts to an inverse robust optimization problem. We consider this problem with a min–max regret objective and present mixed-integer linear programming formulations that can be applied to construct suitable uncertainty sets.Results on both variable-sized uncertainty and inverse problems are further supported with experimental data.     

On the recoverable robust traveling salesman problem

We consider an uncertain traveling salesman problem, where distances between nodes are not known exactly, but may stem from an uncertainty set of possible scenarios. This uncertainty set is given as intervals with an additional bound on the number of distances that may deviate from their expected, nominal values. A recoverable robust model is proposed, that allows a tour to change a bounded number of edges once a scenario becomes known. As the model contains an exponential number of constraints and variables, an iterative algorithm is proposed, in which tours and scenarios are computed alternately. While this approach is able to find a provably optimal solution to the robust model, it also needs to solve increasingly complex subproblems. Therefore, we also consider heuristic solution procedures based on local search moves using a heuristic estimate of the actual objective function. In computational experiments, these approaches are compared.     

Exact asymptotic formulae of the stationary distribution of a discrete-time two-dimensional QBD process

We propose an analytically tractable approach for studying the transient behavior of multi-server queueing systems and feed-forward networks. We model the queueing primitives via polyhedral uncertainty sets inspired by the limit laws of probability. These uncertainty sets are characterized by variability parameters that control the degree of conservatism of the model. Assuming the inter-arrival and service times belong to such uncertainty sets, we obtain closed-form expressions for the worst case transient system time in multi-server queues and feed-forward networks with deterministic routing. These analytic formulas offer rich qualitative insights on the dependence of the system times as a function of the variability parameters and the fundamental quantities in the queueing system. To approximate the average behavior, we treat the variability parameters as random variables and infer their density by using ideas from queues in heavy traffic under reflected Brownian motion. We then average the worst case values obtained with respect to the variability parameters. Our averaging approach yields approximations that match the diffusion approximations for a single queue with light-tailed primitives and allows us to extend the framework to heavy-tailed feed-forward networks. Our methodology achieves significant computational tractability and provides accurate approximations for the expected system time relative to simulated values.     

Robust location of new housing developments using a choice model

We consider the issue of choosing a subset of locations to construct new housing developments maximizing the satisfaction of potential buyers, which has not been previously studied in the literature. The allocation of demands to the selected locations is modeled by a choice model, based on the distance to the location, real-estate prices and incomes. We study two robust counterparts of the optimal location problem, where uncertainty lies on demand volumes for the first one, and on customer preferences for the second one. In both cases, the parameters subject to uncertainty appear both in the objective function and constraints. The second robust model combines a scenario-based approach with nominal, price-centric and distance-centric scenarios on customers preferences, and an uncertainty budget approach that limits the number of customers that can deviate from the nominal scenario. We show that the subproblem of finding the worst-case deviation of parameters subject to uncertainty is tractable and leads to linear formulations of the robust problem. Computational experiments conducted on instances of the Paris region show that the average loss of value of the robust solution is reasonably low when compared to the optimal solution of deviated instances. We also derive insights for the new housing development issue.     

证券投资组合优化问题的强健性的锥优化方法(英)

本文研究了具有强健性的证券投资组合优化问题.模型以最差条件在值风险为风险度量方法,并且考虑了交易费用对收益的影响.当投资组合的收益率概率分布不能准确确定但是在有界的区间内,尤其是在箱型区间结构和椭球区域结构内时,我们可以把具有强健性的证券投资组合优化问题的模型分别转化成线性规划和二阶锥规划形式.最后,我们用一个真实市场数据的算例来验证此方法.