Modeling subjective evaluation for fuzzy group multicriteria decision making

This paper presents a new fuzzy multicriteria decision making (MCDM) approach for evaluating decision alternatives involving subjective judgements made by a group of decision makers. A pairwise comparison process is used to help individual decision makers make comparative judgements, and a linguistic rating method is used for making absolute judgements. A hierarchical weighting method is developed to assess the weights of a large number of evaluation criteria by pairwise comparisons. To reflect the inherent imprecision of subjective judgements, individual assessments are aggregated as a group assessment using triangular fuzzy numbers. To obtain a cardinal preference value for each decision alternative, a new fuzzy MCDM algorithm is developed by extending the concept of the degree of optimality to incorporate criteria weights in the distance measurement. An empirical study of aircraft selection is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the approach.     

A lexicographical compromise method for multiple criteria group decision problems with imprecise information

This paper addresses multiple criteria group decision making problems where each group member offers imprecise information on his/her preferences about the criteria. In particular we study the inclusion of this partial information in the decision problem when the individuals’ preferences do not provide a vector of common criteria weights and a compromise preference vector of weights has to be determined as part of the decision process in order to evaluate a finite set of alternatives. We present a method where the compromise is defined by the lexicographical minimization of the maximum disagreement between the value assigned to the alternatives by the group members and the evaluation induced by the compromise weights.     

基于集对分析的多种不确定偏好形式大群体决策方法

针对具有多种不确定偏好形式的多方案大群体决策问题,提出一种基于集对分析的群决策方法。将区间数、三角模糊数以及语言值三种形式的不确定偏好转换为联系数,保留了不确定偏好信息中的确定性与不确定性。提出一种区间聚类算法,在决策成员权重未知的情况下对成员进行赋权。利用加权综合联系数对大群体偏好进行集结,根据方案的集对势大小给出方案的排序。该方法避免了确定权重时的主观性,同时考虑决策信息的确定性与不确定性,提高了决策结果的可信度。通过实例分析验证了方法的有效性和实用性。     

Deriving crisp and consistent priorities for fuzzy AHP-based multicriteria systems using non-linear constrained optimization

Fuzzy optimization models are used to derive crisp weights (priority vectors) for the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) based multicriteria decision making systems. These optimization models deal with the imprecise judgements of decision makers by formulating the optimization problem as the system of constrained non linear equations. Firstly, a Genetic Algorithm based heuristic solution for this optimization problem is implemented in this paper. It has been found that the crisp weights derived from this solution for fuzzy-AHP system, sometimes lead to less consistent or inconsistent solutions. To deal with this problem, we have proposed a consistency based constraint for the optimization models. A decision maker can set the consistency threshold value and if the solution exists for that threshold value then crisp weights can be derived, otherwise it can be concluded that the fuzzy comparison matrix for AHP is not consistent for the given threshold. Three examples are considered to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Results with the proposed constraint based fuzzy optimization model are more consistent than the existing optimization models.     

DS/AHP method: A mathematical analysis,including an understanding of uncertainty

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was developed to aid decision makers to rank or sort information based on a number of criteria. A recent advance is the DS/AHP method which incorporates the Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence with AHP. This method allows judgements on groups of decision alternatives (DA) to be made, it also offers a measure of uncertainty in the final results. In this paper a mathematical analysis of DS/AHP is included, constructing the functional form of the preference weightings given to groups of DA. These functions allow an understanding of the appropriateness of the rating scale values used in the DS/AHP method, through evaluating the range of uncertainty able to be expressed by the decision maker.     

A two-phase algorithm for consensus building in AHP-group decision making

Group decision making through the AHP has received significant attention in contemporary research, the primary focus of which has been on the issues of consistency and consensus building. In this paper, we concentrate on the latter and present a two-phase algorithm based on the optimal clustering of decision makers (members of a group) into sub groups followed by consensus building both within sub groups and between sub groups. Two-dimensional Sammon’s mapping is proposed as a tool for generating an approximate visualization of sub groups identified in multidimensional vector space, while the consensus convergence model is suggested for reaching agreement amongst individuals in and between sub groups. As a given, all decision makers evaluate the same decision elements within the AHP framework and produce individual scores of these decision elements. The consensual scores are obtained through the iterative procedure and the final scores are declared as the group decision. The results of two selected numerical examples are compared with two sets of results: the results obtained by the commonly used geometric mean aggregation method and also the results obtained if the consensus convergence model is applied directly without the prior clustering of the decision makers. The comparisons indicated the expected differences among the aggregation schemes and the final group scores. The matrices of respect values in the consensus convergence model, obtained for cases when the decision makers are optimally clustered and when they are not, show that in the latter case the decision makers receive lower weights of respect from other members in the group. Various tests showed that our approach is efficient in cases when no clusters can be visually and undoubtedly identified, especially if the number of group members is high.     

Stochastic decision making using multiplicative AHP

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has found a number of applications in decision making problems. Its multiplicative version, called the Multiplicative AHP (MAHP), has been proposed to overcome some of the criticisms of the conventional version. Both these methodologies operate by obtaining expert judgements on the ratios of perceived importance of objects under consideration. The literature on MAHP in dealing with these judgements, when they are specified without uncertainty, is well developed. However, stochastic aspects of these judgements have not received much consideration in the literature so far. Stochastic judgements are considered in this paper for use in MAHP. The fact that weight derivation in MAHP can be handled using mathematical programming is exploited and the literature on stochastic programming is adapted to the MAHP context.     

Geometry of decision making and the vector space formulation of the analytic hierarchy process

We extend the conventional Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to an Euclidean vector space and develop formulations for aggregation of the alternative preferences with the criteria preferences. Relative priorities obtained from such a formulation are almost identical with the ones obtained using conventional AHP. Each decision is represented by a preference vector indicating the orientation of the decision maker's mind in the decision space spanned by the decision alternatives. This adds a geometric meaning to the decision making processes. We utilise the measure of similarity between any two decision makers and apply it for analysing decisions in a homogeneous group. We propose an aggregation scheme for calculating the group preference from individual preferences using a simple vector addition procedure that satisfies Pareto optimality condition. The results agree very well with the ones of conventional AHP.     

基于AHP的群决策排名问题

针对排名结果是由分差大的那部分评委主导,分差小的评委的决策意见往往被湮没的问题给出基于AHP的群决策排名方法.详细介绍了多属性群决策专家权重确定的方法、属性权重确定的方法和信息集结的方法.     

考虑可信度和属性优先级的犹豫模糊决策方法

研究了考虑可信度的犹豫模糊混合集成因子以及考虑属性优先级的犹豫模糊多属性决策方法。首先给出了用于衡量数据差异程度的加权变异率公式,并证明了其具有类似于基尼系数的优良度量性质,之后在此基础上提出了可信度诱导犹豫模糊混合平均(CIHFHA)算子。针对属性权重信息未知的犹豫模糊决策问题,构建了一种新的考虑属性优先级的熵值修正G1的组合赋权方法,该方法可有效地利用属性客观评价数据以及通过考虑属性优先级体现专家意见,解决了主客观权重分配问题,得出的属性权重更加客观、合理。之后给出了一种基于CIHFHA算子和组合赋权方法的多属性决策方法,算例说明该方法的有效性和实用性。     

Group decision making based on novel fuzzy modified TOPSIS method

The aim of this paper is to present a novel fuzzy modified technique of order preference by a similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method by a group of experts, which can select the best alternative by considering both conflicting quantitative and qualitative evaluation criteria in real-life applications. The proposed method satisfies the condition of being the closest to the fuzzy positive ideal solution and also being the farthest from the fuzzy negative ideal solution with multi-judges and multi-criteria. The performance rating values of alternatives versus conflicting criteria as well as the weights of criteria are described by linguistic variables and are transformed into triangular fuzzy numbers. Then a new collective index is introduced to discriminate among alternatives in the evaluation process with respect to subjective judgment and objective information. This paper shows that the proposed fuzzy modified TOPSIS method is a suitable decision making tool for the manufacturing decisions with two examples for the robot selection and rapid prototyping process selection.     

The Analytic Hierarchy Process in an uncertain environment: A simulation approach

Traditionally, decision makers were forced to converge ambiguous judgments to a single point estimate in order to describe a pairwise relationship between alternatives relative to some criterion for use in the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Since many circumstances exist which make such a convergence difficult, confidence in the outcome of an ensuing AHP synthesis may be reduced. Likewise, when a group of decision makers cannot arrive at a consensus regarding a judgment, some members of the group may simply lose confidence in the overall synthesis if they lack faith in some of the judgments. The AHP utilizes point estimates in order to derive the relative weights of criteria, sub-criteria, and alternatives which govern a decision problem. However, when point estimates are difficult to determine, distributions describing feasible judgments may be more appropriate. Using simulation, we will demonstrate that levels of confidence can be developed, expected weights can be calculated and expected ranks can be determined. It will also be shown that the simulation approach is far more revealing than traditional sensitivity analysis.     

Interactive outranking approaches for multicriteria decision-making problems with imprecise information

PROMETHEE is a powerful method, which can solve many multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problems. It involves sophisticated preference modelling techniques but requires too much a priori precise information about parameter values (such as criterion weights and thresholds). In this paper, we consider a MCDM problem where alternatives are evaluated on several conflicting criteria, and the criterion weights and/or thresholds are imprecise or unknown to the decision maker (DM). We build robust outranking relations among the alternatives in order to help the DM to rank the alternatives and select the best alternative. We propose interactive approaches based on PROMETHEE method. We develop a decision aid tool called INTOUR, which implements the developed approaches.     

On rank reversal in decision analysis

Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been criticized for its possible rank reversal phenomenon caused by the addition or deletion of an alternative. This paper shows the fact that the rank reversal phenomenon occurs not only in the AHP but also in many other decision making approaches such as the Borda–Kendall (BK) method for aggregating ordinal preferences, the simple additive weighting (SAW) method, the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, and the cross-efficiency evaluation method in data envelopment analysis (DEA). Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the rank reversal phenomenon in these popular decision making approaches.     

A method for estimating criteria weights from intuitionistic preference relations

An intuitionistic preference relation is a powerful means to express decision makers’information of intuitionistic preference over criteria in the process of multi-criteria decision making. In this paper, we first define the concept of its consistence and give the equivalent interval fuzzy preference relation of it. Then we develop a method for estimating criteria weights from it, and then extend the method to accommodate group decision making based on them And finally, we use some numerical examples to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the developed method.     

Approach to group decision making based on determining the weights of experts by using projection method

The aim of this paper is to present a new approach for determining weights of experts in the group decision making problems. Group decision making has become a very active research field over the last decade. Especially, the investigation to determine weights of experts for group decision making has attracted great interests from researchers recently and some approaches have been developed. In this paper, the weights of experts are determined in the group decision environment via projection method. First of all, the average decision of all individual decisions is defined as the ideal decision. After that, the weight of expert is determined by the projection of individual decision on the ideal decision. By using the weights of experts, all individual decisions are aggregate into a collective decision. Then an ideal solution of alternatives of the collective decision, expressed by a vector, is determined. Further, the preference order of alternatives are ranked in accordance with the projections of alternatives on the ideal solution. Comparisons with an extended TOPSIS method are also made. Finally, an example is provided to illustrate the developed approach.     

Weighting method for bi-level linear fractional programming problems

In this paper we consider the solution of a bi-level linear fractional programming problem (BLLFPP) by weighting method. A non-dominated solution set is obtained by this method. In this article decision makers (DMs) provide their preference bounds to the decision variables that is the upper and lower bounds to the decision variables they control. We convert the hierarchical system into scalar optimization problem (SOP) by finding proper weights using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) so that objective functions of both levels can be combined into one objective function. Here the relative weights represent the relative importance of the objective functions.     

A goal programming model for incomplete interval multiplicative preference relations and its application in group decision-making

In decision making problems, there may be the cases where the decision makers express their judgements by using preference relations with incomplete information. Then one of the key issues is how to estimate the missing preference values. In this paper, we introduce an incomplete interval multiplicative preference relation and give the definitions of consistent and acceptable incomplete ones, respectively. Based on the consistency property of interval multiplicative preference relations, a goal programming model is proposed to complement the acceptable incomplete one. A new algorithm of obtaining the priority vector from incomplete interval multiplicative preference relations is given. The goal programming model is further applied to group decision-making (GDM) where the experts evaluate their preferences as acceptable incomplete interval multiplicative preference relations. An interval weighted geometric averaging (IWGA) operator is proposed to aggregate individual preference relations into a social one. Furthermore, the social interval multiplicative preference relation owns acceptable consistency when every individual one is acceptably consistent. Two numerical examples are carried out to show the efficiency of the proposed goal programming model and the algorithms.     

考虑决策者风险偏好的区间直觉模糊多属性群决策方法

提出了一种考虑决策者风险偏好且属性权重信息不完全的区间直觉模糊数多属性群决策方法。同时考虑相似度和接近度,确定每一属性的决策者权重。为了考虑决策者风险偏好对决策结果的影响和避免区间直觉模糊矩阵的渐进性,引入了决策者风险偏好系数,将集结后的综合决策矩阵转换成区间数矩阵。然后,为了客观地求出属性权重信息不完全环境下属性的权重,构建了基于区间直觉模糊交叉熵的属性权重目标规划模型,该模型不仅考虑了评价值的偏差,也强调了评价值自身的可信度。最后,通过研发项目选择问题的实例分析说明了所提方法的合理性和优越性。     

A new data envelopment analysis method for priority determination and group decision making in the analytic hierarchy process

The DEAHP method for weight deviation and aggregation in the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been found flawed and sometimes produces counterintuitive priority vectors for inconsistent pairwise comparison matrices, which makes its application very restrictive. This paper proposes a new data envelopment analysis (DEA) method for priority determination in the AHP and extends it to the group AHP situation. In this new DEA methodology, two specially constructed DEA models that differ from the DEAHP model are used to derive the best local priorities from a pairwise comparison matrix or a group of pairwise comparison matrices no matter whether they are perfectly consistent or inconsistent. The new DEA method produces true weights for perfectly consistent pairwise comparison matrices and the best local priorities that are logical and consistent with decision makers (DMs)’ subjective judgments for inconsistent pairwise comparison matrices. In hierarchical structures, the new DEA method utilizes the simple additive weighting (SAW) method for aggregation of the best local priorities without the need of normalization. Numerical examples are examined throughout the paper to show the advantages of the new DEA methodology and its potential applications in both the AHP and group decision making.