Success and survival of operational research groups—A review

Operational Research groups were established in private and public sector organizations following on from their success supporting the military in the Second World War. In the early years their numbers grew rapidly but by the mid-1970s evidence started to accumulate that they were being viewed less favourably. Many organizations chose not to set up OR groups. Established groups were closed down or dispersed to operating units in organizations, particularly during the recessionary periods. In 1993 following on the closures of some major OR groups in the UK, the Operational Research Society decided to fund research to examine those factors influencing a group's success and survival. This review, which forms part of the research, first examines the history of OR groups in the UK and North America, arguing that in practice they were one of a number of internal organizational consultancies. As such they were judged by their competitive performance. Despite the intent of the founding fathers of OR many groups found their scope was limited to mainly tactical problems using analytical model based approaches although there were exceptions that were successful in making major contributions at the strategic level also. Within their chosen fields of activity however many groups flourished whilst some failed. This review presents a comprehensive list of influences on success and survival. They include changes in the external environment, together with shifts in managerial style and culture, organizational factors, and the OR group itself. The review concludes that, while OR groups can do much to protect themselves from closure, organizational changes within a hostile managerial culture demand a creative response that acknowledges new requirements. Areas where an OR group has greatest influence over its effectiveness include its leadership and personnel, project balance and management. In addition, to be successful OR groups need to positively develop and market their services in an increasingly competitive managerial climate.     

The Content of MSc Operational Research Courses: Results of a Questionnaire to OR Groups

This paper presents the results of a survey of practising OR groups in UK organizations. The survey was conducted as part of the review procedures of Warwick University's MSc. in Operational Research. The aim was to elicit the views of OR practitioners as to the desirable content of such a course. The questionnaire was sent to 66 OR groups, of which 45 responded, and covered 75 different topics. As well as presenting the basic results, this paper explores the structure of the responses using factor analysis and attempts to classify the OR groups using cluster analysis. Comparisons are drawn with previous surveys and with the SERC OR panel recommendations.     

Theory and practice in OR and town planning: a continuing creative synergy?

The paper looks at the parallel experiences of OR and town (land use) planning since the Second World War. The existence of three ‘waves of enthusiasm’ for planning in the UK is noted: from 1947; from mid-1960s to 1979; and currently from 1990 to date. The significant mutually beneficial synergy between OR and town planning theory and practice during the second of these periods is recounted. Subsequent, current, and potential future developments are reviewed, and the implications for OR and (especially) town planning of a lack of awareness of this history are discussed.     

Operational research in the UK Ministry of Defence: an overview

The paper presents a survey of operational research (OR) as it is currently used in the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD). After a short historical introduction summarising developments since 1945, it identifies the impact which the end of the Cold War has had on defence operational analysis (OA), as the discipline is generally called within MoD, in terms of the problems studied, the technical challenges presented and the techniques employed. The factors, both external and internal, that have led to the MoD maintaining and indeed expanding its OA activity against a background of falling defence budgets are discussed in the context of previously reported research on the survival and success of OR groups.     

Beyond internal OR groups

The paper reviews the prospects of OR applied by dispersed practitioners, small providers of OR services, academics and OR consultants, in other words OR applied by those not located inside internal OR groups. Many in the UK have regarded the activities of OR groups as the defining practice of our profession. The Survival and Success of OR Groups (SSOR) study indicates that within a fairly stable population of OR practitioners the number of internal OR groups is in decline while the number of external, consulting groups is growing. There are good reasons in terms of the diffusion of innovation for assuming that this trend will continue. Against that possibility, the OR profession in the UK needs to reassess the defining aspects of OR and the implications for the activities of the profession in the future. Using the language of strategy, the profession needs to identify its core competencies, define how they are distinctive, consider how they can be developed and maintained, and determine through which channels they can be delivered. One of the key battlegrounds is within the management consultancies where the competing approaches of management science and organisational development vie for supremacy.     

How OR can survive and prosper

This paper examines the success and failure of OR groups, with emphasis on a highly successful American military OR group in the 1940s and an American civilian group which in the past dozen years has proven to be perhaps the most successful OR group in history. They have in common that their success was largely due to emphasis on the nitty-gritty of the problem, and that they saw their recommendations through to implementation.     

Critical rationalism in practice: Strategies to manage subjectivity in OR investigations

The philosophical position referred to as critical rationalism (CR) is potentially important to OR because it holds out the possibility of supporting OR’s claim to offer managers a scientifically ‘rational’ approach. However, as developed by Karl Popper, and subsequently extended by David Miller, CR can only support practice (deciding what to do, how to act) in a very limited way; concentrating on the critical application of deductive logic, the crucial role of subjective judgements in making technical and moral choices are ignored or are at least left underdeveloped. By reflecting on the way that managers, engineers, administrators and other professionals take decisions in practice, three strategies are identified for handling the inevitable subjectivity in practical decision-making. It is argued that these three strategies can be understood as attempts to emulate the scientific process of achieving intersubjective consensus, a process inherent in CR. The perspective developed in the paper provides practitioners with a way of understanding their clients’ approach to decision-making and holds out the possibility of making coherent the claim that they are offering advice on how to apply a scientific approach to decision-making; it presents academics with some philosophical challenges and some new avenues for research.     

Sampling the OR World: The Strathclyde ‘Apprenticeship’ Scheme

A few years ago, Strathclyde University's postgraduate course in OR was redesigned. A significant innovation was to introduce a short working placement part-way through the course-the ‘apprenticeship’ period - which students spend as temporary members of real-life OR (or directly-related) groups. This paper reports on two aspects of this apprenticeship scheme; how it has worked as an educational exercise, and what the students' experiences have told us about the general state of OR in the UK     

Death of an OR group

As part of a major investigation into the success and survival of OR groups in the UK, the closure of a long standing OR group in an organisation in the energy sector was examined. Several members of the organization and the OR group were interviewed about the closure and the quality of the OR service, confirming that the Group had many satisfied clients. The factors influencing the closure were related to a set of previously identified success factors. External and organizational factors were the main influences on the closure decision but some weaknesses in the management of the group were observed. Following the closure, several members of the Group were redeployed, but two years afterwards only one remained in the organization, highlighting the reduced chances of survival for dispersed OR.     

Systemic risk elicitation: Using causal maps to engage stakeholders and build a comprehensive view of risks

As evidenced through both a historical and contemporary number of reported over-runs, managing projects can be a risky business. Managers are faced with the need to effectively work with a multitude of parties and deal with a wealth of interlocking uncertainties. This paper describes a modelling process developed to assist managers facing such situations. The process helps managers to develop a comprehensive appreciation of risks and gain an understanding of the impact of the interactions between these risks through explicitly engaging a wide stakeholder base using a group support system and causal mapping process. Using a real case the paper describes the modelling process and outcomes along with its implications, before reflecting on the insights, limitations and future research.     

Winners and losers: adding organisational value

As part of a major study into the success and survival of in-house OR groups in the UK the closure of 15 groups was investigated. Six selected continuing groups were also examined with the aim of identifying critical success and survival factors. Information was collected by interviews with key personnel, backed with questionnaire data. The results showed that external and organisational factors were a major cause of closure but that some factors within the control of a group could have been managed more vigorously. Suggestions for improving the effectiveness of OR groups and supporting dispersed practitioners are given.     

Attitudes and Perceptions Relating to Implementation and Success in Operational Research

This paper presents a study of a group of O.R. projects. The major emphasis of the research was on a comparison of both the managers' and the O.R. practitioners' perceptions and attitudes. The results show a large amount of agreement between the two groups, and the main disagreement concerned their confidence in the solution. A principal component analysis of the data followed by an orthogonal rotation produced a set of eight principal factors. These were then used for a regression analysis having implementation and success as dependent variables. The results indicate that major differences are seen in the relationship of the dependents to the factors when analysed separately for managers and practitioners. Most of the variance in the implementation score of practitioners is ‘explained’ by attitudinal variables, but this is not true for managers. Implications of the research for this Churchman/Schainblatt concept of "mutual understanding" are suggested.     

Project Planning and Prioritization in the Social Services–an OR Contribution

This paper describes a study carried out for the Social Services Department of a UK County Council towards the development of a system for the evaluation and prioritization of project-based work. There are three major components of the study; an activity analysis to investigate how managers in the department spend their time, with a view to establishing a time budget for the project work; a pilot study to introduce a simple system for project planning and workload balancing with a specialist team; and the development of a multiple criteria model for the evaluation and prioritization of projects. We envisaged a Decision Support System which integrated all of these elements; however, this was never developed; instead, the resultant benefits were of a very different nature. We reflect on the reasons for this and the implications for the success of the study.     

A Survey of the Application of Artificial Intelligence Techniques within the OR Society

This paper presents the findings of a survey of the application of artificial intelligence techniques amongst OR Society members. The survey involved sending a questionnaire to one-third of the UK-based members of the OR Society and generated a 26% response rate. The survey investigated general characteristics of the respondents to enable comparison with previous surveys; determined the current and growing use of AI techniques, and in which areas they are applied; and characterized the benefits and constraints of using such techniques.     

A Man Before His Time— Stephen Lennox Cook, 1919-1979

This paper presents an address given ‘in praise of Steve Cook’ at the 1989 Cambridge Conference on OR and the Social Sciences. The preamble explains why it takes the form it does and offers a few general views on how Steve's work might be re-examined in the light of current interest in furthering a closer rapport between OR and other specializations.     

Towards user-friendly OR: a Chinese experience

In contemporary China, user-friendliness has become not only a necessity for the success of OR projects but also a must for the survival of OR workers. This paper presents an approach that, based upon insights from Chinese thought as well as OR/MS experience in the Chinese context since the 1950s, can be useful for improving user-friendliness in the OR process. The paper also reports a real-world project in which OR workers pursue the user-friendliness of their work under the guidance of these insights and approach. A cultural analysis suggests that, while user-friendly OR is a universal concern, the Eastern and Western ways of tackling the issue appear different. The paper concludes that, in reality, Chinese OR workers must enhance their vision and skills so as to solve sociotechnical problems with diverse methods and do so in a user-friendly manner.     

Problem solving in the United States, 1970–2008: research and theory, practice and politics

Problem solving was a major focus of mathematics education research in the US from the mid-1970s though the late 1980s. By the mid-1990s research under the banner of “problem solving” was seen less frequently as the field’s attention turned to other areas. However, research in those areas did incorporate some ideas from the problem solving research, and that work continues to evolve in important ways. In curricular terms, the problem solving research of the 1970s and 1980s (see, e.g., Lester in J Res Math Educ, 25(6), 660–675, 1994, and Schoenfeld in Handbook for research on mathematics teaching and learning, MacMillan, New York, pp 334–370, 1992, for reviews) gave birth to the “reform” or “standards-based” curriculum movement. New curricula embodying ideas from the research were created in the 1990s and began to enter the marketplace. These curricula were controversial. Despite evidence that they tend to produce positive results, they may well fall victim to the “math wars” as the “back to basics” movement in the US is revitalized.     

The Use of Operational Research Tools: A Survey of Operational Research Practitioners in the UK

Given the importance of understanding decision making processes within organizations, studies of the attitudes of Operational Research practitioners towards specific aspects of their work is a neglected area of research. This paper furnishes an account of a questionnaire-based survey of industrially based OR practitioners selected from the membership of the Operational Research Society. The objective of the study is to assess the views of OR practitioners regarding the modelling and problem solving tools that are available to them. In particular, the issues of technique selection, the treatment of uncertainty, and the perceived contribution of Operational Research to decision issues are investigated. Results from the survey contribute towards both a greater understanding of OR practitioners' perspectives on the decision support process and the development of a profile of the membership of the OR Society.     

The Organization and Improvement of Market Forecasting

Quantitative forecasting techniques are not much used in organizations. Instead, organizations rely on the judgement of managers working close to the product market. Increasingly however, developments at the interface between marketing and operations require more accurate forecasting. Quantitative marketing models have that potential. Drawing on theories from the ‘diffusion of innovation’ literature and results on ‘the barriers to effective implementation’, this paper first considers those factors that should be included in any complete evaluation of market forecasting. Using this framework and based on detailed survey work in a multi-divisional organization, the paper then describes how this company produces its market forecasts, and the perceptions of its managers as to inadequacies in the procedures. Reasons are proposed as to why quantitative forecasting techniques are not effectively used. The paper concludes with a discussion of the causes behind the organization's mismanagement of their forecasting activity and how these activities might best be improved.