机动车碳税政策下政府、企业与出行者的三方演化博弈模型研究

为促进机动车碳减排,缓解因尾气排放带来的大气污染,本文采用演化博弈理论探究机动车碳税政策下的决策行为。建立政府管理部门、汽车企业和出行者三方利益主体的演化博弈模型,并对模型的演化路径及演化规律进行理论与数值仿真。研究发现:降低机动车碳排放演化是政府、汽车企业和出行者三者博弈互动的结果;政府主动实施机动车碳税政策,能够促进另外两者选择低碳的策略;提高机动车碳税税额与对低碳行为的补贴,加快了汽车企业与出行者朝各自低碳策略演化的速度。     

Lower semicontinuous solutions for a class of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations

The present paper is concerned with the study of a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation in finite-dimensional spaces, from both the point of view of l.s.c. viscosity solutions and the point of view of l.s.c. contingent solutions. The results have been used in the study of the uniqueness problem for the Bellman equation associated to a time-optimal control problem (Ref. 1).This paper was completed while the author was visiting the University of California at Los Angeles as a Fulbright Scholar.     

Comparison of two numerical schemes for integrating the atmospheric diffusion equation: evaluation with atmospheric data

Several recent studies have examined the accuracy of alternative numerical schemes for solving the species conservation equation applied to tropospheric air pollution problems. These studies have centered mainly on the use of simplified numerical experiments involving the advection of different initial concentration distributions (e.g. a cosine hill). Few studies report comparative evaluation of alternative numerical schemes using established photochemical modeling data bases for realistic urban settings. This study presents a comparison of two contemporary schemes—SHASTA and the multidimensional flux correction method of Zalesak—applied to the Los Angeles, Calif. and Philadelphia, Pa urban areas. The results indicate that, for the conditions examined, the Zalesak method gives slightly more accurate peak ozone predictions than the SHASTA method in applications to Los Angeles (where peak ozone levels are three times the federal standard). For the more moderate ozone conditions found in Philadelphia, very little difference in accuracy is seen between the two methods.     

Modeling the incidence of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) in San Francisco,Los Angeles,and New York

By November, 1985, reported AIDS cases in New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles totaled over 4980, 1403, and 1315, respectively. Although the cumulative number of cases diagnosed doubled in these cities in the 10–11 months before July, 1984, the incidence of AIDS will not necessarily continue to increase at this rate. A discrete, nonlinear model is presented and used to explore underlying biological and sociological characteristics of the AIDS outbreak and to forecast the number of new cases. The model's structure assumes that AIDS is sexually transmitted and that other forms of transmission mimic sexual transmission. Its parameters reflect (1) how long AIDS takes to develop from exposure to diagnosis, (2) when during this development individuals are contagious, and (3) how changes in sexual behavior and saturation— the removal of susceptible individuals through infection—affect the incidence of AIDS. As indices of behavioral changes, the model uses trends in gonorrhea diagnosed at a San Francisco clinic, where anal/rectal cases have dropped from a monthly average of 411 in 1979–1981 to 59 in 1985, and, urethral cases, similarly, from 863 to 248.Judged by the least residual sum of squares of the model's fit to observations, the drop in anal/rectal gonorrhea better reflects the decline in sexual contact rates in the San Francisco population at risk to AIDS than does the drop in urethral gonorrhea. Furthermore, the parameter values that best fit the model to the incidence data from Los Angeles, New York, and San Francisco currently suggest in general that AIDS takes 35–47 months to develop from exposure to diagnosis, and, that individuals are most infectious in the 3–16 months immediately following exposure to the agent.Although forecasts for each of these three cities suggest that the incidence of AIDS could level off or even decline from present levels before 1987, the model shows that there may currently be insufficient data to choose, using the sum of squares criterion, between radically different forecasts. Two parameter sets that fit the model to Los Angeles AIDS incidence by linking it to the drop in anal/rectal gonorrhea, for example, give similar residual sum of squares of 806 and 808 but different forecasts of 3271 and 2230 total cases diagnosed in Los Angeles before 1987. These results suggest that more data are needed before conclusive parameter values can be chosen. Nevertheless, the model is used in conjunction with anal/rectal gonorrhea rates from San Francisco to generate preliminary forecasts of AIDS incidence. By the end of 1986, it forecasts a range for the total cumulative number of diagnosed cases in Los Angeles of 2200–3300, in New York of 6800–8900, and in San Francisco of 2100–4200, with the model's best fits to observed incidence suggesting that there will be at least 2400, 7200, and 2500 cummulative cases in these cities, respectively.     

Mardia's coefficient of kurtosis in elliptical populations

Mardia (1970) defined a measure of multivariate kurtosis and derived its asymptotic distribution for samples from a multivariate normal population. Some new results on elliptical distributions are used to extend Mardia's results to samples from an elliptical distribution. These results provide a method for testing hypotheses on the kurtosis parameter of elliptical distributions. An appendix provides extensions of Kendall and Stuart's (1977) standard errors of bivariate moments to the third and fourth order.This research was supported by grant DA01070 from the U. S. Public Health Service. Production assistance of Julie Speckart is gratefully acknowledged. Requests for reprints should be sent to: P. M. Bentler, Department of Psychology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90024-1563.     

Dual formulations of optimal control problems

First-order necessary conditions are obtained for a dual formulation, in terms of a class of direction fields, of an optimal control problem of Hestenes. The control functions do not appear. A maximum principle for a boundary arc of a class of admissible arcs is stated in a similar dual formulation.This research is part of a dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the Ph.D. degree in mathematics at the University of California at Los Angeles. The author would like to express his appreciation to Dr. M. R. Hestenes for his guidance.     

Parallel solution of variational inequality problems with nonlinear source terms

Current address: Department of Mathematics, University of California at Los Angeles, CA 90095-1555 and Computing Centre, Academia Sinica, People's Republic of China. The work of this author was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. Using the finite-element method to discretize the variationalinequality problems related to some free boundary problems withnonlinear source terms, we then solve the resulting algebraicsystems by the combination of the quasi-Newton method and thedomain decomposition techniques. The numerical solution processesare completely parallelizable. Both the convergence of the finite-elementapproximation and of the parallel iterative processes are proved.     

Controllability of semilinear systems

The most general results known about controllability of semilinear systems are found in Refs. 1 and 2. The authors of these papers used different approaches, and no connection between them has ever been pointed out. The purpose of this paper is to present a general theorem under which these results easily follow.This paper is taken from a chapter of the author's doctoral thesis written at University of California, Los Angeles, California.     

A general multiplier rule

A general multiplier rule which is an extension of the multiplier rule given by Hestenes is proved. This multiplier rule is applied to obtain the necessary conditions given by Neustadt for a solution to a canonical optimization problem which includes many optimal control problems as special cases.This research is part of a dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the Ph.D. degree in mathematics at the University of California, Los Angeles. The author would like to express his appreciation to Dr. M. R. Hestenes for his guidance.     

A-P-S组合策略的多重绩效及其“褪色”效应分析

为了降低城市交通拥堵及空气污染程度,本文在现有研究的基础上引入罚款政策,利用系统动力学方法原理构建了机动车污染物减排管控模型。通过仿真和比较分析来探索空气污染收费(Air pollution charging fee,简称APCF)、罚款(penalty)和补贴(subsidy)政策(简称A-P-S策略)的作用效果。研究结果表明:一方面,组合策略具有多重绩效,不但能够降低污染损失(经济-环境效益)、死亡人口的生命价值(社会-经济效益)、交通拥堵程度(社会效益)和机动车污染物总量(环境效益),而且能大大改善环境生态承载力(环境效益)和机动车非法出行增长量(社会安全绩效);另一方面,政策在实施过程中也会遇到一定的局限性,如初期的滞后性,后期的“褪色”效应和“反弹”效应,因此,从长期来看,需要及时调整组合方案。最后,根据仿真结果提出了相应的政策建议,进而为城市交通和环保等相关部门提供决策参考。     

The 1986 Test of Adjustment Related Operations in Central Los Angeles County

The author presents the methodology and results of a 1986 test census conducted in Central Los Angeles County, California, to examine the feasibility of adjusting the census for the estimated undercount using a post-enumeration survey. "The results of the dual-system estimates are presented for the test site by the three major race/ethnic groups (Hispanic, Asian, Other) by tenure, by age and by sex. Summaries of the small area adjustments of the census enumeration, by block, are presented and discussed."     

Pairing stochastic processes

This paper studies stochastic distributed parameter systems with stochastic inputs. It defines the pairing of two stochastic processes; the Ito stochastic integral is a particular kind of pairing.This paper was presented at the 4th IFIP Symposium, Los Angeles, California, 1971.     

Distribution of Eigenvalues of Real Symmetric Palindromic Toeplitz Matrices and Circulant Matrices

Consider the ensemble of real symmetric Toeplitz matrices, each independent entry an i.i.d. random variable chosen from a fixed probability distribution p of mean 0, variance 1, and finite higher moments. Previous investigations showed that the limiting spectral measure (the density of normalized eigenvalues) converges weakly and almost surely, independent of p, to a distribution which is almost the standard Gaussian. The deviations from Gaussian behavior can be interpreted as arising from obstructions to solutions of Diophantine equations. We show that these obstructions vanish if instead one considers real symmetric palindromic Toeplitz matrices, matrices where the first row is a palindrome. A similar result was previously proved for a related circulant ensemble through an analysis of the explicit formulas for eigenvalues. By Cauchy’s interlacing property and the rank inequality, this ensemble has the same limiting spectral distribution as the palindromic Toeplitz matrices; a consequence of combining the two approaches is a version of the almost sure Central Limit Theorem. Thus our analysis of these Diophantine equations provides an alternate technique for proving limiting spectral measures for certain ensembles of circulant matrices. A. Massey’s current address: Department of Mathematics, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA. e-mail: amassey3102@math.ucla.edu.     

System identification from noise-corrupted measurements

A simple algorithmic solution is developed for the discrete time, nonlinear, system identification problem based on a stochastic approximation method. The method is applicable to the noisy, as well as the noiseless, input-output measurement case. A minimal statistical knowledge of the noise and input sequences is required for this method; also, the algorithm is very easy to program. The proof of convergence for the algorithm is given along with some experimental results obtained from some control system input-output data.This paper presents the results of one phase of research carried out at the University of California, Los Angeles, California, under Contract No. 951733 to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California.     

Handling missing data in coverage estimation,with application to the 1986 Test of Adjustment Related Operations

"This paper discusses methods used to handle missing data in post-enumeration surveys for estimating census coverage error, as illustrated for the 1986 Test of Adjustment Related Operations (Diffendal 1988). The methods include imputation schemes based on hot-deck and logistic regression models as well as weighting adjustments. The sensivity of undercount estimates from the 1986 test to variations in the imputation models is also explored." The test was carried out in Central Los Angeles County, California.     

Conditionally Specified Space-Time Models for Multivariate Processes

This article proposes a class of conditionally specified models for the analysis of multivariate space-time processes. Such models are useful in situations where there is sparse spatial coverage of one of the processes and much more dense coverage of the other process(es). The dependence structure across processes and over space, and time is completely specified through a neighborhood structure. These models are applicable to both point and block sources; for example, multiple pollutant monitors (point sources) or several county-level exposures (block sources). We introduce several computational tricks that are integral for model fitting, give some simple sufficient and necessary conditions for the space-time covariance matrix to be positive definite, and implement a Gibbs sampler, using Hybrid MC steps, to sample from the posterior distribution of the parameters. Model fit is assessed via the DIC. Predictive accuracy, over both time and space, is assessed both relatively and absolutely via mean squared prediction error and coverage probabilities. As an illustration of these models, we fit them to particulate matter and ozone data collected in the Los Angeles, CA, area in 1995 over a three-month period. In these data, the spatial coverage of particulate matter was sparse relative to that of ozone.     

Identification of parameters in nonlinear boundary-value problems

This paper presents a method for identification of parameters in nonlinear boundary-value problems. The successive approximations technique proposed uses the theory of Lagrange multipliers and the Newton-Raphson method. This method does not require storage of functions and is quadratically convergent. Numerical results are presented.This research was sponsored by the National Institutes of Health, Grant No. GM-16197-01. Computing assistance was obtained from the Health Sciences Computing Facility, University of California at Los Angeles, NIH Grant No. FR-3.     

Control of the flux of substrate entering an enzymatic membrane by an inhibitor concentration at the boundary

The aim of this paper is to show that the simple gradient method is efficient when applied to the optimal control of a distributed parameter system. The system is a model of a biological membrane (with enzymes), and the problem is to approach a desired flux of substrate entering the membrane by acting on an inhibitor's concentration at the boundary of the membrane.This paper was presented at the 4th IFIP Symposium, Los Angeles, California, 1971.The author thanks Professor J. L. Lions for his guidance and supervision in this work. He also thanks Messieurs R. Glowinsky, M. Nedelec, L. Tartar, and J. P. Yvon for a number of very helpful discussions on the subject of this paper. This work was done in collaboration with the Laboratory of Medical Biochemistry, Charles Nicolle Hospital, Rouen, France. The author is much indebted to Dr. D. Thomas who suggested this problem.     

Computational and mathematical organization theory: Perspective and directions

Computational and mathematical organization theory is an interdisciplinary scientific area whose research members focus on developing and testing organizational theory using formal models. The community shares a theoretical view of organizations as collections of processes and intelligent adaptive agents that are task oriented, socially situated, technologically bound, and continuously changing. Behavior within the organization is seen to affect and be affected by the organization's, position in the external environment. The community also shares a methodological orientation toward the use of formal models for developing and testing theory. These models are both computational (e.g., simulation, emulation, expert systems, computer-assisted numerical analysis) and mathematical (e.g., formal logic, matrix algebra, network analysis, discrete and continuous equations). Much of the research in this area falls into four areas: organizational design, organizational learning, organizations and information technology, and organizational evolution and change. Historically, much of the work in this area has been focused on the issue how should organizations be designed. The work in this subarea is cumulative and tied to other subfields within organization theory more generally. The second most developed area is organizational learning. This research, however, is more tied to the work in psychology, cognitive science, and artificial intelligence than to general organization theory. Currently there is increased activity in the subareas of organizations and information technology and organizational evolution and change. Advances in these areas may be made possible by combining network analysis techniques with an information processing approach to organizations. Formal approaches are particularly valuable to all of these areas given the complex adaptive nature of the organizational agents and the complex dynamic nature of the environment faced by these agents and the organizations.This paper was previously presented at the 1995 Informs meeting in Los Angeles, CA.     

The application of a vehicle routing model to a waste-collection problem: two case studies

In this paper we suggest a unique model for estimating the operating cost of each of three waste-collection systems. Under the traditional system, which is widely used, waste is typically collected in plastic bags and a three-man crew is needed on each vehicle. The other two systems require a one-man crew for vehicle collecting street containers. The side-loader system with fixed body automatically empties street containers into the vehicle body and empties the load at the disposal site. The side-loader system with demountable body allows the separation of the waste collection phase from transport to the disposal site, since the vehicle body can be demounted. We also present two case studies and show how the estimation of operating costs is a critical issue in decisions regarding the type of system to be used for waste collection.