Raising the bar: strategic multi-criteria decision analysis

This paper discusses the use of multi-criteria decision analysis for supporting strategic decision making in organisations. It begins by exploring the notions of strategic decisions and the strategic decision-making process. We suggest that structuring strategic objectives, dealing with high levels of uncertainty about the future, as well as considering the interconnectedness of strategic options and their long-term consequences are key aspects of strategic decision making support. We then consider the discursive nature of the processes within which strategic decisions are created and negotiated. Our exploration of these concepts leads us to propose a number of adaptations to the standard multi-criteria decision analysis approach, if it were to provide effective strategic decision support, particularly in strategy workshops. We make suggestions on how to implement these proposals, and illustrate their potential with examples drawn from real-world interventions in which we have provided strategic decision support.     

Problem structuring without workshops? Experiences with distributed interaction within a PSM process

Problem structuring methods (PSMs) have been widely and successfully used in many organizations, but the reliance on face-to-face meetings and workshops makes a typical PSM project difficult and time-consuming to organize, and means that the process may only involve a narrow cross-section of the organization. Yet much interaction in organizations is neither face-to-face nor even synchronous. This research seeks to (1) explore how the issues that arise in moderating such distributed interaction differ from the issues involved in facilitating a workshop and (2) identify the circumstances under which it makes sense to consider using the distributed mode of interaction within a PSM process. Three pairs of action research case studies using a distributed variant on the strategic options development and analysis (SODA) process are described, together with our answers to the above questions.     

企业内部的随机分权

在一个信息传递模型框架中考察多部门组织内部权力的随机配置. 研究结论表明,在特定参数范围内,随机分权能提升组织治理局部适应和部门协调的能力;而且,数值分析表明最优组织结构下的集权概率随着部门协调需求和部门经理层激励冲突的上升而增加. 因此,组织主动引入权力配置不确定性本身可能就是最优组织结构的组成部分,从而为随机分权提供了一种理论解读.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Quid pro quo</Emphasis>: Reflections on the value of problem structuring group workshops

Attracting clients who are willing to invest in using a problem structuring method (PSM) can be particularly difficult for the emerging generation of modellers. There are many reasons for this, not least that the benefits of a problem structuring intervention are vague and evidence of benefits are often anecdotal for example, claims of constructing a deeper understanding of the problem or building the commitment of a group to implementing an outcome. This paper contributes to the evaluation of problem structuring methods by reflecting on the quid pro quo that a client and problem structuring modeller can enjoy from collaboration. The paper reflects on 21 cases, where Journey Making (a problem structuring method) was used with 16 organizations to help managers agree a suite of actions to tackle a complex strategic issue. The reflections are clustered around those benefits that pertain to: PSMs in general; PSMs that use computer-supported workshops; the Journey Making methodology.     

Catastrophe equity put options with target variance

In this study, we consider a new class of catastrophe equity put options, whose payoff depends on the ratio of the realized variance of the stock over the life of the option and the target variance, which represents the insurance company’s expectation of the future realized variance. This kind of options could help insurance companies raise more equity capital when a large number of catastrophic events occur during the life of the option. We employ a compound doubly stochastic Poisson process with lognormal intensity to describe accumulated catastrophe losses and assume the volatility varies stochastically. Finally, numerical results are presented to investigate the values of this class of options.     

A Multi-attribute Value Model for the Study of UK Energy Policy

A multi-attribute value model has been developed to study UK energy-policy options. The model consists of four main stages: attribute selection, in which users identify up to 15 key attributes of an energy policy; attribute rating, in which a quantitative assessment is made of the relative importance of each of the attributes selected; option evaluation, in which users are asked to score five energy-policy options for the UK (drawn from a range of published sources) on each of the attributes; and experimentation, in which users are encouraged to explore and modify a tabular and graphical representation of the results. The model has been used in a series of workshops at which representatives from different organizations have been invited to use the model to explore each other's viewpoints. User reactions to the model are discussed, and the potential of such models for addressing controversial social issues is considered.     

Evaluating Strategy — Its Role Within the Context of Strategic Control

The paper uses a case study to illustrate a number of points in relation to strategy development and strategic control. A group decision support system — ‘Strategic Options Development and Analysis’ (SODA) — was used. The method focuses on the ‘linkages’ between strategic issues rather than on the issues themselves. The paper focuses upon the strategy review process. Three related elements of strategy' are considered as a part of the review: an evaluation of the extent to which the strategy has been implemented and is embedded in the organization; an evaluation of the assumptions underpinning the strategy; and an evaluation of the influence the strategy has on those at the ‘coal-face’.     

Insights into the development of strategy from a complexity perspective

This paper provides an account of an ongoing project with an independent school in the UK. The project focuses on a strategy development intervention which, from the start, was systemic in orientation. The intention was to integrate simple systems concepts and approaches into the strategy development process to: address power relations in actively engaging a wide range of stakeholders with the school’s strategy-making process; generate a range of good ideas; and make the strategy-making process transparent in order to inspire stakeholder confidence in, and commitment to, it and its outcomes. This paper describes how seeking to meet these aims entailed a series of workshops during the course of which an awareness of the relevance, in our interpretation, of Complex Adaptive Systems concepts grew.     

Evaluating Suppliers of Complex Systems: A Multiple Criteria Approach

Organizations are frequently required to make long-term strategic choices regarding the design and manufacture of innovative process equipment and systems which address future needs. An important consideration in such choices is the evaluation of the unique capabilities of available suppliers. Typically, such evaluations must be made relative to multiple attributes or criteria. This paper examines one such supplier evaluation process in the context of a major international manufacturer of telecommunication equipment. The ad hoc method used by the organization to evaluate the multiple factors involved is presented, and an alternative, structured approach to deal with the multiple factors is then discussed.     

Strategy making with the whole organisation: OR and the art of the possible

Present-day expectations of wide stakeholder involvement in strategy-making processes have been addressed in distinctive ways by the Operational Research (OR) and Organisational Development (OD) communities. This paper describes an intervention supporting a strategy for change in a university where a high degree of participation was essential to address the substantive issues faced following the disappointing outcome of an employee satisfaction survey. The importance of staff satisfaction for achieving good business outcomes is explained in the paper before an account is given of the work that was undertaken using a combination of Large Group Intervention and Problem Structuring Method approaches. The achievement of the project in shifting the locus of perceived control and opening up a more participative strategic debate is next assessed. The case demonstrated the benefit of using an intervention process whose participatory nature mirrored the desired changes in the client organisation, and in which the dramatisation of senior management group commitment underlined determination to effect change. Other implications are discussed: the value of using a novel assemblage of approaches and techniques rather than inflexibly following a single methodology; the potential payoff from closer work between the disciplines of OR and OD; and the observation that there is a real opportunity for the wider use of participative approaches in strategy making, something that OR practitioners are well-placed to provide.     

PARTICIPATION IN INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENTS: THE ROLE OF TIMING AND REGULATION

ABSTRACT. We analyze the formation of self‐enforcing international environmental agreements under the assumption that countries announce their participation either simultaneously or sequentially. It is shown that a sequential formation process opens up possibilities for strategic behavior of countries that may lead to inferior outcomes in terms of global abatement and welfare. We then analyze whether and under which conditions a regulator like an international organization, even without enforcement power, can improve upon globally suboptimal outcomes through coordination and moderation, given that recommendations must be Pareto‐improving to all parties.     

A network-based futures method for strategic business planning

Many strategic decisions in business are made in a context which the decision makers perceive as uncertain, complex and opaque. A method, based on Rhyne's field anomaly relaxation technique, is described of generating a network of states which characterise the environment or context in which strategic decisions are to be made. These states represent possible future conditions for the business, and knowledge of them allows improved strategic understanding and decision making to be achieved. This paper describes the method, using a representative real-life application to illustrate the process.     

Transparent prioritisation,budgeting and resource allocation with multi-criteria decision analysis and decision conferencing

Managers in both for-profit and not-for-profit organisations continually face the task of allocating resources by balancing costs, benefits and risks and gaining commitment by a wide constituency of stakeholders to those decisions. This task is complex and difficult because many options are present, benefits and risks are rarely expressed as single objectives, multiple stakeholders with different agendas compete for limited resources, individually optimal resource allocations to organisational units are rarely collectively optimal, and those dissatisfied with the decisions taken may resist implementation. We first explain three current approaches to resource allocation taken from corporate finance, operational research and decision analysis, and we identify a common mistake organisations make in allocating resources. The paper then presents a technical process, multi-criteria portfolio analysis, for balancing the conflicting elements of the problem, and a social process, decision conferencing, which engages all the key players during the modelling process, ensuring their ownership of the model and the subsequent implementation. This socio-technical process improves communication within the organisation, develops shared understanding of the portfolio and generates a sense of common purpose about those projects that will best realise the organisation’s objectives. The paper concludes with lessons we have learned from actual practice. The authors want to thank Allergan and FCT (Portuguese Science Foundation) for their support.     

A micro-economic perspective on manager selection in nonprofit organizations

This paper recognizes that individuals working in the nonprofit sector can have different motives and investigates which type of manager nonprofit organizations should best employ. It first considers a situation in which the manager is allowed to attract only one employee and later extends the analysis to a situation in which up to three employees can be employed. Analyses mark the importance of a strong commitment to the organization’s mission and caution for both a strong self-interest and a strong devotion to the well-being of the clients. Managers with a moderate interest in their own objectives can nevertheless be valuable to the organization. The paper also marks why managers should avoid similar-to-me biases in the selection process and investigates the effects of an increased work pressure on the behavior of the managers and on the attainment of the organizational goals.     

Extending the use of scenario planning and MCDA for the evaluation of strategic options

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is well equipped to deal with conflicting, qualitative objectives when evaluating strategic options. Scenario planning provides a framework for confronting uncertainty, which MCDA lacks. Integration of these methods offers various advantages, yet its effective application in evaluating strategic options would benefit from scenarios that reflect a larger number of wide-ranging scenarios developed in a time-efficient manner, as well as incorporation of MCDA measures that inform within and across scenario comparison of options. The main contribution of this paper is to illustrate how a more diverse set of scenarios could be developed quickly, and to investigate how regret could be used to facilitate comparison of options. First, the reasons for these two areas of development are elaborated with respect to existing techniques. The impacts of applying the proposed method in practice are then assessed through a case study involving food security in Trinidad and Tobago. The paper concludes with a discussion of findings and areas for further research.     

股价服从指数O-U过程的多点重置期权定价

本文在风险中性定价原则下,得到了股价服从指数O-U(Ornstein-Uhlenbeck)过程的n个重置日期m个执行价格的重置期权定价,又在利率服从扩展Vasicek模型下,得到了n个重置日期m个执行价格的重置期权定价.     

Sequential analysis of organization design: A model and a case of Japanese firms

This paper deals with a design problem of an organization whose choice process of the task is formulated as a sequential decision process. This process incorporates the organization design as a combination of an organization structure anaa management system. Two organization structures, the pyramid organization and the matrix organization, are defined as the systems of task assignment. Two management systems, System 1 and System 2 are defined as the communication systems of the observation process on the environment.From a decision theoretic viewpoint, we analyze this organization design problem and obtain the results having the following managerial implications: The pyramid organization and System 1 are efficient under low uncertainty; the matrix organization and System 2 are efficient under high uncertainty; the pyramid organization is efficient if System 1 is efficient. Our empirical research on Japanese firms supports these implications.     

Bottom-up design of strategic options as finite automata

In this paper we look at the problem of strategic decision making. We start by presenting a new formalisation of strategic options as finite automata. Then, we show that these finite automata can be used to develop complex models of interacting options, such as option combinations and product options. Finally, we analyse real option games, presenting an algorithm to generate option games (based on automata).     

调节作用下投资策略的评价

本文用实物期权的方法评价调节作用下的投资策略 ,建立期权定价模型。模型中项目价值遵循均值返回过程 ,项目价值的路径采用数值模拟分析 ,文中运用动态规划方法推出期权定价公式 ,通过数值解法求解和分析数值结果 ,得出调节作用对投资的影响。     

基于实物期权的物流企业能力外购策略

探讨物流企业面临客户需求以及市场物流能力价格的双重不确定环境,物流企业的能力外购策略。通过引入实物期权的思想,构建物流企业能力外购模型,寻找使物流企业期望收益最大的能力预定量。分析表明,最优预定量随着期权价格和期权执行价格的增加而减小。最后,通过算例分析进一步探讨不同期权执行价格对物流企业最优外购策略选择的影响。