Bridging the gap between clinicians and health managers

This contribution is about bridging the gap between professionals and managers in health care: clinicians on the one hand and managers on the other hand. The paper looks at the problems along the road ahead: those that confront the governmental authorities and those that confront the health care sector. It identifies the driving forces that confront the health care sector and shows in what direction they are pushing management. Three steps are indicated to bridge the gap between clinicians and managers: (1) New discussion forums; (2) patient information systems; (3) communication tools. Operational Research can and should contribute. However, some shifts in emphasis are necessary. Three propositions are put forward: (1). Operational Research should infiltrate the discussion forums on health care; (2) Operational Research should orient itself to the “operationalisation” of the thousands of basic concepts and indicators used in health care rather than to the formulation of models which take all these concepts and indicators for granted; (3) Operational Research can contribute by helping to master the voluminous data in sensible ways in order to arrive at information on health, health care and health care management… under any type of constraint, resource or otherwise. This information needs, however, to be communicated.     

A Model of Vacancy Chains as a Mechanism for Resource Allocation

Vacancy chains can be tracked in any context where the availability of a desirable resource triggers a cascade of occupations through which the scarce resource flows through different owners. However, under certain conditions, vacancy chains, rather than markets or other forms of competition, determine the allocation of the resource. This article develops a formal and computational model of vacancy chains as a mechanism for resource allocation in order to find out their properties with respect to organizational forms.

We find that hierarchies with few middle managers are particularly prone to make use of vacancy chains in order to allocate resources that originate at the top, such as employment positions. In fact, vacancy chains often disappear when information is widely available, because information is likely to attract applicants who engage in a competition. Thus, the many middle managers of a thick organization may compete for a resource that originates at the top. On the contrary, organizations that are thick at the bottom and at the top, but thin in the middle, are most likely to regulate resource allocation by means of vacancy chains.     

Computational experimentation on new organizational forms: Exploring behavior and performance of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Edge</Emphasis> organizations

New organizational forms are being conceived and proposed continually, but because many such organizations remain conceptual—and hence have no basis for empirical assessment—their putative advantages over extant organizational forms are difficult to evaluate. Moreover, many such organizational forms are proposed without solid grounding in our cannon of organization theory; hence understanding their various theoretical properties in terms of our familiar, archetypal forms remains difficult. This poses problems for the practitioner and researcher alike. The Edge represents one such, recent, conceptual organizational form, which lacks readily observable examples in practice, and the conceptualization of which is not rooted well in our established organization theory. Nonetheless, proponents of this new form argue its putative advantages over existing counterparts, with an emphasis upon complex, dynamic, equivocal environmental contexts; hence the appeal of this form in today’s organizational environment. The research described in this article employs methods and tools of computational experimentation to explore empirically the behavior and performance of Edge organizations, using the predominant and classic Hierarchy as a basis of comparison. We root our models of these competing forms firmly in Organization Theory, and we make our representations of organizational assumptions explicit via semi-formal models, which can be shared with other researchers. The results reveal insightful dynamic patterns and differential performance capabilities of Hierarchy and Edge organizations, and they elucidate theoretical ramifications for continued research along these lines, along with results amenable to practical application. This work also highlights the powerful role that computational experimentation can play as a complementary, bridging research method. Mark Nissen is Associate Professor of Information Systems and Management at the Naval Postgraduate School. His research focuses on dynamic knowledge and organization. He views work, technology and organization as an integrated design problem, and has concentrated recently on the phenomenology of knowledge flows. Mark’s publications span information systems, project management, organization studies, knowledge management and related fields. In 2000 he received the Menneken Faculty Award for Excellence in Scientific Research, the top research award available to faculty at the Naval Postgraduate School. In 2001 he received a prestigious Young Investigator Grant Award from the Office of Naval Research for work on knowledge-flow theory. In 2002–2003 he was Visiting Professor at Stanford, integrating knowledge-flow theory into agent-based tools for computational modeling. Before his information systems doctoral work at the University of Southern California, he acquired over a dozen years’ management experience in the aerospace and electronics industries.     

Optimal transfer pricing schemes for work averse division managers with private information

This paper models a decentralized firm under information asymmetry and effort disutility on the part of managers. We assume that managers choose efforts before observing some private information. However, after the effort choice managers receive private information on their cost parameters which they report to the headquarters. There exist many situations in which managers need to take efforts before obtaining private information; for example, the regular maintenance effort on the machine, the effort on R&D for reducing costs and the effort taken to build relationships with the supplier. Two models are considered in this paper based on the timing of acquisition of private information by the managers. We derive optimal coordination mechanisms to facilitate internal transactions for the models. The equilibrium outcome of this paper suggests that: 1) regardless of the timing of managers' information acquisition, the optimal output level under asymmetric information can have overproduction or underproduction when compared with the full information optimal output; 2) under certain demand conditions managers cannot receive any information rent benefit for their private information even if they have the option to renege on the contract after obtaining their private information.     

The effective communication of system dynamics to improve insight and learning in management education

Experienced exponents of system dynamics in management education appreciate that feedback, non-linearities and delays are ubiquitous, and create difficulties for making intuitive judgements about the dynamic behaviour of business systems. They have applied much effort to solving this problem, offering simple, high-level causal mapping techniques to conceptualise dynamic issues, formal simulation modelling, and simulation-based learning environments. However, the use of these methods is still not extensive, and it is often disconnected from other management development pedagogies.System dynamics is ideally suited to operationalising certain concepts central to the management field, notably the resource-based and competence-based view of strategic management. However, three developments must be made if this potential is to be exploited. Firstly, system dynamics must connect with those established concepts and frameworks in the management field. Secondly, the barriers for managers to appreciate the power of system dynamics must be lowered, to make the method an integral part of the managerial mind-set. Thirdly, managers need help to climb the learning curve of understanding regarding the dynamic behaviour of the business systems they endeavour to manage, through a comprehensive set of resource-mapping and gaming simulation tools.This paper describes how these developments can be implemented, reports on experience of using the resulting learning devices and comments on possible future directions. There is an exciting opportunity for system dynamics to make a major contribution to a new strategy paradigm, based on a dynamic resource-system view of the firm, a perspective that can be extended to other fields in management and to non-business contexts.     

基于贝叶斯多元有序probit模型的休闲渔业游客满意度研究

游客满意度是休闲渔业景区制定管理决策的重要参考信息。通过探究游览过程中游客对各单一维度的满意程度与旅游总满意度之间的关系,管理者可以从中准确了解游客偏好、消费行为以及获取旅游产品设计等重要信息。据此,本文采取实地调研,获取11家全国休闲渔业示范基地1510份游客满意度信息,使用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛法(Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC),估算贝叶斯多元有序probit模型,并利用模型后验结果衡量休闲渔业游客7种分满意度对总体满意度的贡献。研究结果表明:渔憩体验满意度、景区环境满意度以及旅游餐饮满意度是对总体满意度影响程度最大的三种分满意度,所占比例分别为43.58%、24.67%、10.62%。     

Organizational implications of systems thinking: Multidimensional modular design

Despite a well recognized systemic principle that parts of an organization are interdependent and the nature of their interaction defines the behavior of the whole, we have stubbornly held to the illusion that each function is more or less self-contained and can be treated independently. For a majority of managers the unidimensional mode of organization based on structurally defined tasks, segmentation and hierarchical coordination of functions seems to be the only acceptable way of organizing the work. A predominant management culture continues to value narrow specialization very dearly and considers any forms of redundancy in the organizational structure as wasteful and inefficient. However, the ability to adapt requires some forms of flexibility and responsiveness, which in turn demands that some degree of redundancy be built into the system.The required level of interaction and flexibility in an organization can be achieved by creating a modular structure embedded in a multidimensional scheme. The resulting mode of organization is capable of redesigning its structure and redefining its functions, so that it can exhibit different behaviors and produce different outcomes in the same or different environments.     

Consumer preference and service quality management with RFID

The importance of accurately measuring consumer preference for service quality management to firms in exceedingly competitive environments where customers have an increasing array of access to information cannot be overstated. There has been a resurgence of interest in consumer preference measurement and service quality management, specifically real-time service management, as more data about customer behavior and means to process these data to generate actionable policies become available. Recent years have also witnessed the incorporation of Radio-Frequency Identification (RFID) tags in a wide variety of applications where item-level information can be beneficially leveraged to provide competitive advantage. We propose a knowledge-based framework for real-time service management incorporating RFID-generated item-level identification data. We consider the economic motivations for adopting RFID solutions for customer service management through analysis of service quality, response speed and service dependability. We conclude by providing managerial insights on when and where managers should consider RFID-generated identification information to improve their customer services.     

Making the information systems outsourcing decision: A transaction cost approach to analyzing outsourcing decision problems

During the last several years outsourcing has emerged as a major issue in information systems management. As competitive forces impinge on business firms, senior managers are re-structuring their organizations with an eye on attaining or maintaining competitive advantage. Various strategies to IS outsourcing have emerged, for example, some outsourcers contract with a sole vendor while others contract with several. To date no studies have been done to determine which strategies are appropriate under what conditions. And while some firms have achieved varying degrees of success with any of these strategies, many have encountered significant difficulties. How then are managers to choose from a set of options that which is most appropriate for their firm? Outsourcing problems are complex and entail considerable implications for the strategy of the firm. A wrong decision can result in loss of core competencies and capabilities, and exposure to unexpected risks. Although many articles have appeared on outsourcing, few have extended the discussion beyond simple cost–benefit analysis. In this paper we discuss a transaction cost theory approach to the analysis of outsourcing decision making. Our approach provides managers with a strategy and techniques for analyzing some of the more subtle issues they may face when dealing with complex outsourcing decisions problems.     

Contracting over multiple parameters: Capacity allocation in semiconductor manufacturing

This paper is a generalization of Mallik and Harker [Mallik, S., Harker, P.T., 2004. Coordinating supply chains with competition: Capacity allocation in semiconductor manufacturing. European Journal of Operational Research 159, 330–347] that presented an integrated model of incentive problems arising in forecasting and capacity allocation. In that model, multiple product managers and multiple manufacturing managers forecast the means of their respective demand and capacity distributions, and a central coordinator allocates capacities based on these forecasts. A mechanism that elicits truthful information from the managers was the main contribution of that paper. The objective of this paper is to generalize our previous results to multiple statistics reporting. This work assumes that the central coordinator can ask the managers to report multiple statistics (mean and variance, for example) about their respective distributions. We propose a game theoretic model and design a mechanism (a bonus scheme and an allocation rule) that elicits truthful reporting of all statistics by all managers. It turns out that the structure of the optimal bonus schemes are rather simple with easily calculable parameters. We also show that a large class of allocation rules are manipulable. A bonus is often required for elicitation of truthful information. We compare our results of multiple statistics reporting with those from Mallik and Harker (2004). We also characterize under what conditions the reporting of the extra information is of limited use.     

Wait or buy? The strategic consumer: Pricing and profit implications

Using tools from operations research, airlines have, for many years, taken a strategic approach to pricing the seats available on a particular flight based on demand forecasts and information. The result of this approach is that the same seat on the same flight is often offered at different fares at different times. Setting of these prices using yield-management approaches is a major activity for many airlines and is well studied in the literature. However, consumers are becoming increasingly aware of the existence of pricing strategies used by airlines. In addition, the availability of airline travel pricing on the Internet affords consumers the opportunity to behave more strategically when making purchase decisions. The onset of the information age makes it possible for an informed consumer or a third party, such as a travel agent, to obtain demand information similar to that used by the airlines. In particular, it is possible for consumers or travel agents to purchase historical data or to obtain it by monitoring the seats that are available at various prices for a given flight. If a consumer understands the pricing strategy and has access to demand information, he/she may decide to defer purchase of a ticket because they believe that a cheaper seat may yet become available. If consumers were to make use of this information to make such strategic purchasing decisions, what would be the impact on airline revenues? The purpose of this paper is to investigate these impacts. This work indicates that use of standard yield management approaches to pricing by airlines can result in significantly reduced revenues when buyers are using an informed and strategic approach to purchasing. Therefore, when airlines are setting or presenting prices, they should investigate the effect of strategic purchasing on their decisions.     

Good and bad market research: A critical review of Net Promoter Score

Net Promoter Score, touted as the “single customer metric you need” and calculated from customers' answer to one simple question about their loyalty, has been in use since 2003 and adopted in a wide variety of settings. However, it has not lived up to its claimed benefits. This article evaluates the NPS approach in terms of its positive and negative results. This article is for people interested in NPS, still considering implementing NPS in their company, or interested in its technical underpinnings. It points out the benefits and shortcomings and explains why, and it describes what can be done to achieve the outcomes NPS theory claimed it would produce, but has not. The article is written in two parts for quite distinct audiences: firstly, for executives and managers who need customer data and information to make marketing decisions; and secondly, for market researchers, statisticians, and business analysts who are responsible for capturing and providing reliable, understandable, and meaningful customer data to the executives and managers who need the information. Consequently, the two sections are written in two different styles. The first section takes the form of a summary for managers and executives of our findings and recommendations in language aimed at business leaders; the second section provides a detailed analysis and critical review of NPS for market researchers, statisticians, and business analysts. Both sections present a better solution than NPS for understanding what customers value, delivering the best value to customers, winning market share, and creating truly loyal customers.     

Private Games are too Dangerous

Given the difficulty of observing interpersonal relations as they develop within an organization, I use iterated prisoner&2018;s dilemma games to simulate their development. The goal is to understand how trust could develop as a function of private games, that is, as a function of interaction sequences between two people independent of their relationships with other people. My baseline is Axelrod&2018;s results with TIT for TAT showing that cooperation can emerge as the dominant form of interaction even in a society of selfish individuals without central authority. I replicate Axelrod&2018;s results, then show that the results only occur in a rare social context&2014;maximum density networks. Where people form less dense networks by withdrawing from unproductive relationships, as is typical in organizations, the competitive advantage shifts from TIT for TAT to abusive strategies. A devious PUSHY strategy wins in moderate to high density networks. A blatantly HOSTILE strategy wins in less dense networks. Abusive players do well in sparse networks because their abuse is lucrative in the initial exchanges of a relationship&2014;before the other person knows to withdraw. Wise players avoiding the abusive players leaves the abusive players free to concentrate on naive players (con men thrive in big cities). The implication is that what keeps abusive players at bay are friends and acquaintances warning managers away from people known to exploit their colleagues. I reinforce the point with illustrative survey data to conclude that private games are not only too dangerous, but also too rare and too slow to be the foundation for trust within organizations. The results are an evidential call for the sociological intuition that trust and distrust cannot be understood independent of the network context in which they are produced.     

A comprehensive method for comparing mental models of dynamic systems

Mental models are the basis on which managers make decisions even though external decision support systems may provide help. Research has demonstrated that more comprehensive and dynamic mental models seem to be at the foundation for improved policies and decisions. Eliciting and comparing such models can systematically explicate key variables and their main underlying structures. In addition, superior dynamic mental models can be identified. This paper reviews existing studies which measure and compare mental models. It shows that the methods used to compare such models lack to account for relevant aspects of dynamic systems, such as, time delays in causal links, feedback structures, and the polarities of feedback loops. Mental models without those properties are mostly static models. To overcome these limitations of the methods to compare mental models, we enhance the widely used distance ratio approach (Markóczy and Goldberg, 1995) so as to comprehend these dynamic characteristics and detect differences among mental models at three levels: the level of elements, the level of individual feedback loops, and the level of the complete model. Our contribution lies in a new method to compare explicated mental models, not to elicit such models. An application of the method shows that this previously non-existent information is essential for understanding differences between managers’ mental models of dynamic systems. Thereby, a further path is created to critically analyze and elaborate the models managers use in real world decision making. We discuss the benefits and limitations of our approach for research about mental models and decision making and conclude by identifying directions for further research for operational researchers.     

On the application of mathematical models in maintenance

This paper may be seen as an appeal to maintenance modellers to work with maintenance engineers and managers on real problems. Such collaboration is essential if maintenance modelling is to be accepted within the engineering community. It is also particularly important in the design and building of maintenance management information systems if such systems are to be used to manage and operate maintenance policy in the new millennium. In this context, developing areas of maintenance modelling are discussed, namely: inspection maintenance; condition based maintenance; maintenance for multi-component systems; and maintenance management information systems. Some new models relating to capital replacement are also considered. Thus, we are concerned with the mathematical modelling of maintenance rather than with management processes relating to maintenance. Discussion of maintenance management information systems is included because of their importance in providing data for mathematical modelling and in implementing model-based maintenance policy.     

信息安全遵从行为的激励机制研究——惩罚的确定性与适度性

关于惩罚的确定性及其严重性是否能够有效地影响组织内部雇员的信息安全遵从行为,已有的研究结论尚存在着严重分歧。为了继续探索惩罚对信息安全遵从行为的影响作用,构建了信息安全遵从博弈模型,依据该模型和存在道德风险的委托人——代理人理论,分析了惩罚的确定性以及适度的惩罚严重性对信息安全遵从行为的激励机制,并对惩罚的适度性进行了数值模拟。研究表明:(1)作为委托人的组织可以设计出包含适度惩罚的最优激励契约,并获得最优的信息安全遵从收益;作为代理人的雇员不仅将接受该契约,并且会按照组织所期望的努力水平去遵从信息安全制度。(2)惩罚的确定性和适度性两者能够有效地影响雇员的信息安全遵从行为。(3)组织可以根据雇员的风险规避测度、外部机会收益、激励报酬以及信息安全产出结果这四个因素来设置适当的惩罚额度。这些研究结果将有助于信息安全管理者深入地理解并有效地管理组织内部雇员的信息安全遵从行为。     

‘Good enough’ performance measurement: a trade-off between activity and action

Performance measurement systems along the lines of the EFQM and the balanced scorecard have developed rapidly in recent years, and now occupy much management time and effort. There is limited evidence that performance improvement has received proportionate attention. Six organisations selected for their success were studied using a grounded theory approach based on interviews with management accountants and operations managers in each of the organisations. It is clear that they are all making strenuous efforts to use their performance measurement systems but with a focus on the ‘good enough’ rather than the detail. This gave managers in these organisations the time and space to concentrate on the use of performance measures on forward looking relevance, understanding and action, rather than retrospective and detailed control. This approach was promoted by senior managers and was based on their ability to see the business in simple terms and their understanding of the key drivers of business performance.     

Application of fuzzy topsis for ranking suppliers of supply chain in automobile manufacturing companies in Iran

Evaluating, ranking and selecting of good supplier play an important role in decreasing of buying risk and increasing of efficiency and effectiveness in value chain and competitive ability of organizations. The goal of this paper is determination and localization of criteria, ranking and selecting suppliers in Automobile Manufacturing Companies in Iran. Based on literature review, 27 criteria were selected and localized, then using factor analysis, they were decreased to 6 items including quality, delivery, technical skill, after sales services, investment and product design. Ultimately, 4 suppliers including Tavan, Borna, Saba and Niroogostaran have been assessed and ranked by fuzzy topsis technique. The results of the research state that score of Borna is better than others with coefficient of 0.52, and from this view, Tavan, Saba and Niroogostaran are in the next ranking with coefficient of 0.45, 0.41, 0.31, respectively. Finally, it concludes some remarks including discussion, summary of implications for managers about how they can use this research results for selecting the best supplier and promoting the competitive ability of their organization, and directions for their further work too.     

THE INCOMPLETE‐INFORMATION SPLIT‐STREAM FISH WAR: EXAMINING THE IMPLICATIONS OF COMPETING RISKS

ABSTRACT. . It is now widely recognized that climactic regime shifts, which aperiodically alter a harvested fish stock's biomass and spatial distribution, may lead to distorted fisheries management decisions which negatively impact the fishery, both biologically and economically. This is particularly true for trans‐boundary migratory stocks, where optimal management relies on coordination among independent nation‐states. Unanticipated changes in stock distribution and abundance can upset expectations of national authorities, leading them to sanction inappropriate harvesting levels by their separately managed fleets targeting the same breeding fish stock. Our theoretical studies are based on a spatially‐distributed stochastic model, which we have called the “split‐stream model,‘ where two separately managed fleets harvest simultaneously at two separate sites. Our key assumption is that competing fleet managers, when harvesting noncooperatively, hold incomplete and asymmetric private information of current stock recruitment and spatial distribution. When subsequently negotiating to coordinate their harvests, they agree that they will share their information and then bargain over partition of the gains from their cooperation. This bargaining process takes into account the fleet's relative competitive strengths, particularly due to private information asymmetries. In this present article we introduce a more complex information structure than had been assumed in our earlier work (McKelvey and Golubtsov [2002], McKelvey, Miller and Golubtsov [2003], Mckelvey et al. [2004]). Specifically, both stock‐growth and stock‐split parameters vary stochastically and asynchronously. Thus, when harvesting noncooperatively, each fleet may possess private knowledge which is unavailable to the other. We examine the interplay of the harvesting game's information structure with other fishery characteristics, such as the fleets' economics and operating characteristics and their attitudes toward risk, to determine the implications of such structure for the outcome of the harvesting game. All of these changes are made to capture new conceptual phenomena and expand the range of applicability of the model.     

Implicit Assumptions and Communication in Statistics

Statistics is becoming an increasingly important component of the school curriculum. The subject provides students with opportunities to explore situations that they read about or face in their everyday lives. This article describes a statistics project that focuses on communicating conclusions and on understanding implicit assumptions that may affect conclusions based on the information. The ability to make a table and draw graphs and charts is an important component of statistical education. However, the ability to communicate ideas to others and understand implicit assumptions associated with data are key objectives of educating students for a world that increasingly relies on statistical information as a means of mass communication.