Cost-effective sulphur emission reduction under uncertainty

The problem of reducing SO₂ emissions in Europe is considered. The costs of reduction are assumed to be uncertain and are modeled by a set of possible scenarios. A mean-variance model of the problem is formulated and a specialized computational procedure is developed. The approach is applied to the trans-boundary air pollution model with real-world data.     

Robust improvement schemes for road networks under demand uncertainty

This paper is concerned with development of improvement schemes for road networks under future travel demand uncertainty. Three optimization models, sensitivity-based, scenario-based and min–max, are proposed for determining robust optimal improvement schemes that make system performance insensitive to realizations of uncertain demands or allow the system to perform better against the worst-case demand scenario. Numerical examples and simulation tests are presented to demonstrate and validate the proposed models.     

A probabilistic analysis of the set covering problem

A probabilistic analysis of the minimum cardinality set covering problem (SCP) is developed, considering a stochastic model of the (SCP), withn variables andm constraints, in which the entries of the corresponding (m, n) incidence matrix are independent Bernoulli distributed random variables, each with constant probabilityp of success. The behaviour of the optimal solution of the (SCP) is then investigated as bothm andn grow asymptotically large, assuming either an incremental model for the evolution of the matrix (for each size, the matrixA is obtained bordering a matrix of smaller size by new columns and rows) or an independent one (for each size, an entirely new set of entries forA are considered). Two functions ofm are identified, which represent a lower and an upper bound onn in order the (SCP) to be a.e. feasible and not trivial. Then, forn lying within these bounds, an asymptotic formula for the optimum value of the (SCP) is derived and shown to hold a.e.The performance of two simple randomized algorithms is then analyzed. It is shown that one of them produces a solution value whose ratio to the optimum value asymptotically approaches 1 a.e. in the incremental model, but not in the independent one, in which case the ratio is proved to be tightly bounded by 2 a.e. Thus, in order to improve the above result, a second randomized algorithm is proposed, for which it is proved that the ratio between the approximate solution value and the optimum approaches 1 a.e. also in the independent model.     

Semi-Markov modulated Poisson process: probabilistic and statistical analysis

We consider a Poisson process that is modulated in such a way that the arrival rate at any time depends on the state of a semi-Markov process. This presents an interesting generalization of Poisson processes with important implications in real life applications. Our analysis concentrates on the transient as well as the long term behaviour of the arrival count and the arrival time processes. We discuss probabilistic as well as statistical issues related to various quantities of interest.     

A new uncertainty analysis for the transformation method

In this paper, a new uncertainty analysis for the transformation method (TM) is proposed. As a practical implementation of fuzzy arithmetic, the TM is a convenient tool for the simulation and analysis of systems with uncertain parameters that are expressed by fuzzy numbers. The proposed uncertainty analysis and the sensitivity analysis of the TM complete each other in providing some quantification of the relationship between the uncertainties of the system input and the system output. The computation of gain factors is proposed, which allows the estimation of the absolute and relative measures of uncertainty. These measures allow the quantification of the influence of the uncertainty of the input on the uncertainty of the output.     

Exploiting structure in parallel implementation of interior point methods for optimization

OOPS is an object-oriented parallel solver using the primal–dual interior point methods. Its main component is an object-oriented linear algebra library designed to exploit nested block structure that is often present in truly large-scale optimization problems such as those appearing in Stochastic Programming. This is achieved by treating the building blocks of the structured matrices as objects, that can use their inherent linear algebra implementations to efficiently exploit their structure both in a serial and parallel environment. Virtually any nested block-structure can be exploited by representing the matrices defining the problem as a tree build from these objects. OOPS can be run on a wide variety of architectures and has been used to solve a financial planning problem with over 10⁹ decision variables. We give details of supported structures and their implementations. Further we give details of how parallelisation is managed in the object-oriented framework.     

Multivariate sequential point estimation

For a multivariate normal distribution with unknown mean vector and unknown dispersion matrix, a sequential procedure for estimating the unknown mean vector is suggested. The procedure is shown to be asymptotically “risk efficient” in the sense of Starr (Ann. Math. Statist. (1966), 1173–1185), and the asymptotic order of the “regret” (see Starr and Woodroofe, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 63 (1969), 285–288) is given. Moderate sample behaviour of the procedure using Monte-Carlo techniques is also studied. Finally, the asymptotic normality of the stopping time is proved.     

Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis

his paper provides a review of multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for cases where attribute evaluations are uncertain. The main aim is to identify different tools which can be used to represent uncertain evaluations, and to broadly survey the available decision models that can be used to support uncertain decision making. The review includes models using probabilities or probability-like quantities; explicit risk measures such as quantiles and variances; fuzzy numbers, and scenarios. The practical assessment of uncertain outcomes and preferences associated with these outcomes is also discussed.     

An optimization model for the design of a capacitated multi-product reverse logistics network with uncertainty

In this work the design of a reverse distribution network is studied. Most of the proposed models on the subject are case based and, for that reason, they lack generality. In this paper we try to overcome this limitation and a generalized model is proposed. It contemplates the design of a generic reverse logistics network where capacity limits, multi-product management and uncertainty on product demands and returns are considered. A mixed integer formulation is developed which is solved using standard B&B techniques. The model is applied to an illustrative case.     

A partially linearized sigma point filter for latent state estimation in nonlinear time series models

A new technique for the latent state estimation of a wide class of nonlinear time series models is proposed. In particular, we develop a partially linearized sigma point filter in which random samples of possible state values are generated at the prediction step using an exact moment-matching algorithm and then a linear programming based procedure is used in the update step of the state estimation. The effectiveness of the new filtering procedure is assessed via a simulation example that deals with a highly nonlinear, multivariate time series representing an interest rate process.     

Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for multiple volatility shifts

We propose the Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) to detect and locate multiple volatility shifts. Our Gaussian QMLE is shown to be consistent under suitable conditions and the rate of convergence is provided. It is also shown that the binary segmentation procedure provides a consistent estimation for the number of volatility shifts.     

Variable-sized uncertainty and inverse problems in robust optimization

In robust optimization, the general aim is to find a solution that performs well over a set of possible parameter outcomes, the so-called uncertainty set. In this paper, we assume that the uncertainty size is not fixed, and instead aim at finding a set of robust solutions that covers all possible uncertainty set outcomes. We refer to these problems as robust optimization with variable-sized uncertainty. We discuss how to construct smallest possible sets of min–max robust solutions and give bounds on their size.A special case of this perspective is to analyze for which uncertainty sets a nominal solution ceases to be a robust solution, which amounts to an inverse robust optimization problem. We consider this problem with a min–max regret objective and present mixed-integer linear programming formulations that can be applied to construct suitable uncertainty sets.Results on both variable-sized uncertainty and inverse problems are further supported with experimental data.     

A dual-interval vertex analysis method and its application to environmental decision making under uncertainty

In this study, a dual-interval vertex analysis (DIVA) method is developed, through incorporating the vertex method within an interval-parameter programming framework. The developed DIVA method can tackle uncertainties presented as dual intervals that exist in the objective function and the left- and right-hand sides of the modeling constraints. An interactive algorithm and a vertex analysis approach are proposed for solving the DIVA model. Solutions under an associated α-cut level can be generated by solving a series of deterministic submodels. They can help quantify relationships between the objective function value and the membership grade, which is meaningful for supporting in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives as well as those between system optimality and reliability. A management problem in terms of regional air pollution control is studied to illustrate applicability of the proposed approach. The results indicate that useful solutions for planning the air quality management practices have been generated. They can help decision makers to identify desired pollution-abatement strategies with minimized costs and maximized environmental efficiencies.     

G-PNN: A genetically engineered probabilistic neural network

The probabilistic neural network (PNN) is a neural network architecture that approximates the functionality of the Bayesian classifier, the optimal classifier. Designing the optimal Bayesian classifier is infeasible in practice, since the distributions of data belonging to each class are unknown. PNN is an approximation of the Bayesian classifier by approximating these distributions using the Parzen window approach. One of the criticisms of the PNN classifier is that, at times, it uses a lot of training data for its design. Furthermore, the PNN classifier requires that the user specifies certain network parameters, called the smoothing (spread) parameters, in order to approximate the distributions of the class data, which is not an easy task. A number of approaches have been reported in the literature for addressing both of these issues (i.e., reducing the number of training data needed for the building of the PNN model and producing good values for the smoothing parameters). In this effort, genetic algorithms are used to achieve both goals at once, and some promising results are reported.     

Accounting for threshold uncertainty in extreme value estimation

Tail data are often modelled by fitting a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to the exceedances over high thresholds. In practice, a threshold is fixed and a GPD is fitted to the data exceeding . A difficulty in this approach is the selection of the threshold above which the GPD assumption is appropriate. Moreover the estimates of the parameters of the GPD may depend significantly on the choice of the threshold selected. Sensitivity with respect to the threshold choice is normally studied but typically its effects on the properties of estimators are not accounted for. In this paper, to overcome the difficulties of the fixed-threshold approach, we propose to model extreme and non-extreme data with a distribution composed of a piecewise constant density from a low threshold up to an unknown end point and a GPD with threshold for the remaining tail part. Since we estimate the threshold together with the other parameters of the GPD we take naturally into account the threshold uncertainty. We will discuss this model from a Bayesian point of view and the method will be illustrated using simulated data and a real data set.     

The reliability analysis of probabilistic and interval hybrid structural system

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of probabilistic and interval hybrid structural system. The hybrid structural system includes two kinds of uncertain parameters—probabilistic parameters and interval parameters. Based on the interval reliability model and probabilistic operation, a new probabilistic and interval hybrid reliability model is proposed. Firstly, we use the interval reliability model to analyze the performance function, and then sum up reliability of all regions divided by the failure plane. Based on the presented optimal criterion enumerating the main failure modes of hybrid structural system and the relationship of failure modes, the reliability of structure system can be obtained. By means of the numerical examples, the hybrid reliability model and the traditional probabilistic reliability model are critically contrasted. The results indicate the presented reliability model is more suitable for analysis and design of these structural systems and it can ensure the security of system well, and it only needs less uncertain information.