基于耦合映像格子的城市交通系统相继故障研究

在对一个实际的城市交通系统进行复杂网络描述的基础上,构造了该城市交通系统的耦合映像格子模型,利用该模型研究了城市交通系统的相继故障问题,应用计算机仿真手段研究了干扰强度和网络相继故障的关系,网络相继故障在攻击条件下对于节点度数的敏感性以及不同攻击策略下网络相继故障的传播问题,对实际城市交通系统的规划、设计、建设和管理具有现实意义.     

基于模糊理论的交通安全评价方法的研究

道路交通安全系统的内部结构极为复杂,影响因素众多,各因素都具有模糊性.在综合研究分析国内外道路交通安全评价方法的基础上,对以往发生的道路交通事故资料进行分析,利用模糊评价理论,选取合理评价指标,建立了基于模糊的道路交通安全评价模型,对道路交通的安全性进行合理评价.     

Modelling dynamic network loading ontransportation networks through a continuous

The efforts spent by researchers in the last few years in traffic modelling have been focused on the modelization of dynamic behaviour of the several components making up a transportation system.In the field of traffic assignment, a large number of models and procedures have been proposed in order to perform Dynamic Network Loading (DNL), that is the reproduction of within-day variable link performances once a corresponding Origin/Destination (O/D) demand and users' choice model has been given. These models can be used both to evaluate traffic flows and, what is more relevant, to simulate the effects of regulation strategies on users' behaviour.

In this paper, after a brief review of the state of the art in this field, a continuous dynamic network loading model is proposed; it removes some of the drawbacks of other packet approach models proposed in literature and explicitly allows the en-route modification of the followed path. An algorithmic development of the model and a set of applications on text networks are also proposed.     

城市交通投资结构调整与交通需求互动优化模型研究

城市交通投资结构研究有助于了解交通供给能力特征,缓解城市交通拥堵状况.北京市在过去的十几年来大量的交通资金投入到道路建设中,但并没有从根本上扭转日益突出的交通供需矛盾状况.从交通投资与交通需求的关系出发,探讨投资方向和投资力度对交通供需结构的影响.给出交通投资结构阶段统计特征、分析了北京市"七五"至"十五"时期交通投资系统与交通需求、交通供给和社会经济系统关系.应用多目标优化方法,并运用M atlab软件计算不同交通结构情境下的交通投资取向、结构、管理上提出建议.     

改善交通视角下的城市人口经济分布研究

城市各区的人口-经济分布直接决定了各区之间的车流量,从而决定了城市的交通拥堵程度.充分考虑各区入口经纬度、道路基本路况和人口-经济分布等构建交通指数模型,探究各区入口的拥堵情况.之后从市民出行的角度构建评价模型,评价城市各区布局是否合理.最后,构建非线性规划模型,为城市各区人口经济合理分布提供政策建议.以深圳市为实例进行了实证研究,结果表明深圳市接下来应该着重发展罗湖、南山和盐田区的经济,住房规划首先考虑南山区.     

An application of deterministic chaotic maps to model packet traffic

We investigate the application of deterministic chaotic maps to model traffic sources in packet based networks, motivated in part by recent measurement studies which indicate the presence of significant statistical features in packet traffic more characteristic of fractal processes than conventional stochastic processes. We describe one approach whereby traffic sources can be modeled by chaotic maps, and illustrate the traffic characteristics that can be generated by analyzing several classes of maps. We outline a potential performance analysis approach based on chaotic maps that can be used to assess the traffic significance of fractal properties. We show that low order nonlinear maps can capture several of the fractal properties observed in actual data, and show that the source characteristics observed in actual traffic can lead to heavy-tailed queue length distributions. It is our conclusion that while there are considerable analytical difficulties, chaotic maps may allow accurate, yet concise, models of packet traffic, with some potential for transient and steady state analysis.     

交通灯数学模型

主要讨论在假定车流均匀的前提下如何安排路口的交通灯时间才能使路口的交通达到最大限度的畅通.这里交通最大限度通畅的定义是一个交通周期内积存车辆的最大可能长度达到最小.文章首先以最大限度通畅为目标,道路条件、行人通过马路等条件为约束,建立优化模型解决孤立丁字路口的交通灯安排问题,这个模型也适用于孤立十字路口的分析.随后文章建立了多个路口相连时路口交通灯的安排模型.最后,文章讨论了上述几个模型的稳定性以及改进方向.     

加权马尔可夫模型在道路交通受伤人数预测中的应用

为提高交通事故预测的可靠性,首先应用有序聚类的方法建立交通受伤人数的分级标准;然后针对事故受伤人数为相依随机变量的特点,采取以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权重,用加权的马尔可夫链模型来预测未来交通事故受伤人数的升降变化状况;最后以北京市1970-2010年共41年的事故受伤人数为例对该方法进行了具体应用,取得了较为满意的结果,为交通事故受伤人数的预测分析提供了新的途径.     

基于BP神经网络的道路交通事故预测

道路交通事故预测是交通研究的一个重要课题.以我国交通安全状况为研究对象,依据我国道路交通事故的特点,利用神经网络具有自学习、自组织、自适应能力特性,运用神经网络的方法及我国多个年度道路交通事故统计数据,建立了道路交通事故神经网络宏观预测模型,预测精度符合道路交通事故预测的要求.     

移动GSM网话务量的ARIMA模型的建立及其预测

本文用ARIMA模型对株洲移动GSM网的话务量进行了建模分析和预报，研究表明ARIMA模型不但适合株洲移动GSM网话务量的非平稳时间序列的特点，而且预测效果比较理想。结果表明，ARIMA（1，1，1）提供了较精确的预测结果，可以用来对未来几周的话务量进行预测，有一定的实际价值。     

Worst Traffic Passing Virtual Frame Regulation: Analysis with Dynamic Programming

This paper studies a discrete-time queueing system in which the traffic regulation places an upper bound on the number of arrivals in each of the non-overlapping time windows (virtual frames) of a fixed length. The worst traffic passing through this traffic regulation is characterized. As a criterion for traffic comparison, this paper employs the weighted sum of queueing delays with the weighting factors decaying geometrically over the time horizon. This paper uses dynamic programming techniques and convexity argument to characterize the worst traffic.     

An efficient algorithm for computing traffic equilibria using TRANSYT model

Computing traffic equilibria with signal settings using TRANSYT model for an area traffic control road system is considered in this paper. Following Wardrop’s first principle, this problem can be formulated as a variational inequality problem. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm to efficiently solve this equilibrium traffic assignment with global convergence. Numerical calculations are conducted on a grid-size road network. As it shows, the proposed method achieved greater savings in computational overheads than did those conventional methods for solving traffic equilibria when signal settings are particularly taken into account.     

Payne-Whitham型宏观交通流模型波动特性

宏观交通流模型将交通流比拟成流体流,通过整体变量如交通流量、平均车速以及交通密度来研究其整体性质,得到了越来越多的肯定.文章采用波前展开的方法,研究Payne-Whitham型宏观交通流模型描述扰动沿交通流波动的特性,同时给出了相应的稳定性条件.最后利用Padé逼近法进行数值仿真,得到的结果与理论分析相一致.     

Joint optimization traffic signal control for an urban arterial road

This paper considers the optimal traffic signal setting for an urban arterial road. By introducing the concepts of synchronization rate and non-synchronization degree, a mathematical model is constructed and an optimization problem is posed. Then, a new iterative algorithm is developed to solve this optimal traffic control signal setting problem. Convergence properties for this iterative algorithm are established. Finally, a numerical example is solved to illustrate the effectiveness of the method.     

北京市道路交通事故致死率的分析与预测

根据北京市道路交通事故的统计资料,以交通事故致死率为指标,对北京市目前道路交通安全情况进行评价.并基于灰色预测理论,建立北京市道路交通事故死亡人数的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型.预测结果显示,北京市未来几年道路交通事故死亡人数虽处于下降趋势,但死亡人数仍在千人左右,平均每起事故死亡人数仍处于上升趋势,道路交通事故致死率仍然偏高.道路交通管理部门应加大惩治道路交通违法行为力度,以控制道路交通事故的严重后果.     

Some statistical challenges in automated driving systems

Automated driving systems are rapidly developing. However, numerous open problems remain to be resolved to ensure this technology progresses before its widespread adoption. A large subset of these problems are, or can be framed as, statistical decision problems. Therefore, we present herein several important statistical challenges that emerge when designing and operating automated driving systems. In particular, we focus on those that relate to request-to-intervene decisions, ethical decision support, operations in heterogeneous traffic, and algorithmic robustification. For each of these problems, earlier solution approaches are reviewed and alternative solutions are provided with accompanying empirical testing. We also highlight open avenues of inquiry for which applied statistical investigation can help ensure the maturation of automated driving systems. In so doing, we showcase the relevance of statistical research and practice within the context of this revolutionary technology.     

结点有约束的交通网络最短路径模型

结点有约束的网络是一类特殊的网络，如具有禁止通行限制信息的交通路网等，由于最短路径的求解是有后效性的，经典的Dijkstra算法等不能直接用来求解该问题，本文提出了一种结点有约束的交通网络最短路径建模方法，该方法所建模型为一般网络模型，可用任一传统高效的算法求其最短路径，从根本上降低了问题的复杂性，为很好地解决交通、通信等领域中的此类问题提供了有益的方法。     

Application of averaging techniques to traffic flow theory

Real traffic data are very versatile and are hard to explain with the so‐called standard fundamental diagram. A simple microscopic model can show that the heterogeneity of traffic results in a reduced mean flow and that the reduction is proportional to the density variance. Standard averaging techniques allow us to evaluate this reduction without having to describe the complex microscopic interactions. Using a second equation for the variance results in a two‐dimensional hyperbolic system that can be put in conservative form. The Riemann problem is completely solved in the case of a parabolic fundamental diagram, and the solutions are compared with the famous second‐order Aw–Rascle–Zhang model in a simulation of lane reduction. Adding a diffusion term results in entropy production, and the diffusive model is studied as well. Finally, a numerical scheme is used and converges to the analytical solution. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new cellular automaton model for traffic flow

Establishment of effective traffic models to reveal fundamental traffic characteristics is an essential requirement in the design, planning and operation of transportation systems. In 1992 Nagel and Schreckenberg presented a cellular automaton model describing traffic flow of N cars on a single lane and applied it in the famous project TRANSIMS on transportation simulation. In this paper, the author proposes a new model for the same problem and gives a comparison of simulation results with the former ones. The comparison shows that the new model works better under the condition of high traffic density.     

An empirical extension of the M/G/1 heavy traffic approximation

Numerical evaluation of waiting time distributions for M/G/1 systems is somewhat difficult. This paper examines a simple variation of the heavy traffic formula which may be useful at modest levels of traffic intensity. One can justify the heavy traffic approximation by expressing the Laplace transform of the service time distribution as a Maclaurin series and then truncating to three terms. The spectrum factorization and inversion leads in a straightforward fashion to the heavy traffic approximation. If one carries two additional terms from the Maclaurin series, the characteristic equation is a cubic with exactly one real negative root. This root provides an easy way to extend the heavy traffic formula to cases where the traffic is not so heavy. This paper studies the quality of this approximation and includes some numerical evaluation based on data actually encountered.