Day‐ahead price forecasting based on hybrid prediction model

Short‐Term Price Forecast is a key issue for operation of both regulated power systems and electricity markets. Energy price forecast is the key information for generating companies to prepare their bids in the electricity markets. However, this forecasting problem is complex due to nonlinear, nonstationary, and time variant behavior of electricity price time series. So, in this article, the forecast model includes wavelet transform, autoregressive integrated moving average, and radial basis function neural networks (RBFN) is presented. Also, an intelligent algorithm is applied to optimize the RBFN structure, which adapts it to the specified training set, reduce computational complexity and avoids over fitting. Effectiveness of the proposed method is applied for price forecasting of electricity market of mainland Spain and its results are compared with the results of several other price forecast methods. These comparisons confirm the validity of the developed approach. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 156–164, 2016     

A new metaheuristic algorithm based on shark smell optimization

In this article, a new metaheuristic optimization algorithm is introduced. This algorithm is based on the ability of shark, as a superior hunter in the nature, for finding prey, which is taken from the smell sense of shark and its movement to the odor source. Various behaviors of shark within the search environment, that is, sea water, are mathematically modeled within the proposed optimization approach. The effectiveness of the suggested approach is compared with many other heuristic optimization methods based on standard benchmark functions. Also, to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed optimization method for solving real‐world engineering problems, it is applied for the solution of load frequency control problem in electrical power systems. The obtained results confirm the validity of the proposed metaheuristic optimization algorithm. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 97–116, 2016     

A hybrid metaheuritic technique developed for hourly load forecasting

Electricity load forecasting has become one of the most functioning tools in energy efficiency and load management and utility companies which has been made very complex due to deregulation. Due to the importance of providing a secure and economic electricty for the consumers, having a reliable and robust enough forecast engine in short‐term load management is very needful. Fuzzy inference system is one of primal branches of Artificial Intelligence techniques which has been widely used for different applications of decision making in complex systems. This paper aims to develop a Fuzzy inference system as a main forecast engine for Short term Load Forecasting (STLF) of a city in Iran. However, the optimization of this platform for this special case remains a basic problem. Hence, to address this issue, the Radial Movement Optimization (RMO) technique is proposed to optimize the whole Fuzzy platform. To support this idea, the accuracy of the proposed model is analyzed using MAPE index and an average error of 1.38% is obtained for the forecast load demand which represents the reliability of the proposed method. Finally, results achieved by this method, demonstrate that an adaptive two‐stage hybrid system consisting of Fuzzy & RMO can be an accurate and robust enough choice for STLF problems. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 521–532, 2016     

Improved time varying inertia weight PSO for solved economic load dispatch with subsidies and wind power effects

This article presents a new approach to economic load dispatch (ELD) problems by the considering the cost functions, impact renewable energy as wind turbin and subsidies. Economic dispatch is the short‐term determination of the optimal output of a number of electricity generation facilities, to meet the system load, at the lowest possible cost, subject to transmission and operational constraints. The main goal in the deregulated system is subsidies and analysis performance on government to minimize the total fuel cost while satisfying the load demand and operational constraints. The practical ELD problems have nonsmooth cost functions with equality and inequality constraints, which make the problem of finding the global optimum difficult when using any mathematical approaches. Accordingly, particle swarm optimization with time‐varying inertia weight (PSO‐TVIW) used for solving this problem. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy is applied over real‐world engineering problem and highly constrained. Obtained results indicate that PSO‐TVIW can successfully solve this problem. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 40–49, 2016     

基于灾变灰预测的电力峰谷差异常的预测模型研究

电力负荷预测过程中,峰谷值波动是一种正常现象,当高峰期负荷急速攀升时,可能出现峰谷差异常问题(如异常值、随机误差项的异方差等),则会给电力企业带来麻烦和损失.为了对负荷峰谷差异常进行有效的预测,构建了一个基于灾变灰预测的电力峰谷差异常的预测模型,并结合实例说明了此模型的可行性和有效性.     

基于组合预测方法的风电功率预测模型

风力发电是最具开发潜力的非水电再生能源,为保证电网的功率平衡和运行安全,需要对风电功率给出准确的预测。对于风电功率预测通常可采用以下3种方法：三次指数平滑法、ARMA方法以及灰色预测方法,但预测准确性不高,而采用风电功率预测的组合预测方法可以提高风电功率精度。将4种预测方法运用到实际风电功率算例中,由数值计算结果可以得出组合预测方法预测风电功率得到的结果精度较高。     

Short-run electricity load forecasting with combinations of stationary wavelet transforms

Short-term forecasting of electricity load is an essential issue for the management of power systems and for energy trading. Specific modeling approaches are needed given the strong seasonality and volatility in load data. In this paper, we investigate the benefit of combining stationary wavelet transforms to produce one day-ahead forecasts of half-hourly electric load in France. First, we assess the advantage of decomposing the aggregate load into several subseries with a wavelet transform. Each component is predicted separately and aggregated to get the final forecast. One innovation of this paper is to propose several approaches to deal with the boundary problem which is particularly detrimental in electricity load forecasting. Second, we examine the benefit of combining forecasts over individual models. An extensive out-of-sample evaluation shows that a careful treatment of the border effect is required in the multiresolution analysis. Combinations including the wavelet predictions provide the most accurate forecasts. This result is valid with several assumptions about the forecast error in temperature and for different types of hours (peak, normal, off-peak), different days of the week and various forecasting periods.     

基于修正的时间序列模型对冲击负荷的预测

电力负荷预测的实质是对电力市场需求的预测,是利用以往的历史数据资料找出电力负荷的变化规律,进而预测负荷在未来时期的变化趋势.由于经济、气候以及工业生产等诸多因素的约束和限制,电力负荷预测精度很难提高.一个好的实用的电力负荷预测模型则要求既能充分利用负荷的历史数据,又能灵活方便地综合考虑其他多种相关因素的影响.提出了回归与自回归模型相结合的时间序列混合回归预测模型,它的待估参数由BP神经网络进行修正,经实例验证,预测效果良好.     

A sales forecasting system based on fuzzy neural network with initial weights generated by genetic algorithm

Sales forecasting is highly complex due to the influence of internal and external environments. However, reliable prediction of sales can improve the quality of business strategy. Recently, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been applied for sales forecasting due to their promising performance in the areas of control and pattern recognition. However, further improvement is still necessary since unique circumstances such as promotion can cause sudden changes in sales patterns. Thus, the present study utilizes the proposed fuzzy neural network with initial weights generated by genetic algorithm (GFNN) for the sake of learning fuzzy IF–THEN rules for promotion obtained from marketing experts. The result from GFNN is further integrated with an ANN forecast using the time series data and the promotion length from another ANN. Model evaluation results for a convenience store (CVS) company indicate that the proposed system can perform more accurately than the conventional statistical method and a single ANN.     

基于熵值法的组合预测模型及其在高峰负荷预测中应用

组合预测可以综合利用各单一预测方法所提供的信息,是提高预测精度的有效途径.本文在指数平滑预测法及灰色预测方法的基础上建立组合预测模型,采用熵值法确定组合权系数,并对某电网高峰负荷进行了预测.实例表明,此模型具有很强的实用性和很高的预测精度.     

基于LM算法的BP神经网络的电力负荷短期预测

通过对BP神经网络输入负荷值的归一化处理,同时采用Levenberg-Marquardt(LM)算法,建立了一个改进了的BP神经网络,同时用它来对电力系统进行短期负荷预测.LM算法有效地提高了BP神经网络的收敛速度和负荷的预测精度.仿真结果表明,改进了的BP神经网络具有很高的预测精度和较强的适用能力.     

Application of system NCF method to ice flood prediction of the Yellow River

Combined forecasts is a well-established procedure for improving forecasting accuracy which takes advantage of the availability of both multiple information and computing resources for data-intensive forecasting. Therefore, based on the combination of engineering fuzzy set theory and artificial neural network theory as well as genetic algorithms and combined forecast theory, the system Non-linear Combined Forecast (NCF) method is established for accuracy enhancement of prediction, especially of ice flood prediction. The NCF values from single forecast model for Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River are given. The case shows that the method has clear physical meanings and precise consequences. Compared with any single model, the system NCF method is more rational, effective and accurate.     

Optimal economic load dispatch based on wind energy and risk constrains through an intelligent algorithm

This article focus on optimal economic load dispatch based on an intelligent method of shark smell optimization (SSO). In this problem, the risk constrains has been considered which has root in uncertainity and unpredictable behavior of wind power. Regarding to increasing of this clean energy in power systems and un‐dispatchable behavior of wind power, its conditional value at risk index considered in this article which consists of loss from load and "spilling" wind energy connected with unpredictable imbalances among generation and load. This problem has been considered as an optimization problem based on SSO that evaluate the balance between cost and risk. This algorithm is based on distinct shark smell abilities for localizing the prey. In sharks' movement, the concentration of the odor is an important factor to guide the shark to the prey. In other words, the shark moves in the way with higher odor concentration. This characteristic is used in the proposed SSO algorithm to find the solution of an optimization problem. Effectiveness of the proposed method has been applied over 30‐bus power system in comparison with other techniques. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 494–506, 2016     

A novel of fuzzy PSS based on new objective function in multimachine power system

This article proposed a new control strategy based on Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy model for deceasing the power system oscillation. This controller is based on the parallel distributed compensation structure, the stability of the whole closed‐loop model is provided using a general Lyapunov‐Krasovski functional. Also, in this article, a new objective function has been considered to test the proposed Fuzzy Power System Stabilizer in different load conditions which increase the system damping after the system undergoes a disturbance. So, for testing the effectiveness of the proposed controller, the damping factor, damping ratio, and a combination of the damping factor and damping ratio were analyzed and compared with the proposed objective function. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy has been used over 16 machine 68 bus power system. The eigenvalue analysis and nonlinear time domain simulation results proof the effectiveness of the proposed method. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 288–298, 2016     

Medium‐term horizon volatility forecasting: A comparative study

In this paper, volatility is estimated and then forecast using unobserved components‐realized volatility (UC‐RV) models as well as constant volatility and GARCH models. With the objective of forecasting medium‐term horizon volatility, various prediction methods are employed: multi‐period prediction, variable sampling intervals and scaling. The optimality of these methods is compared in terms of their forecasting performance. To this end, several UC‐RV models are presented and then calibrated using the Kalman filter. Validation is based on the standard errors on the parameter estimates and a comparison with other models employed in the literature such as constant volatility and GARCH models. Although we have volatility forecasting for the computation of Value‐at‐Risk in mind the methodology presented has wider applications. This investigation into practical volatility forecasting complements the substantial body of work on realized volatility‐based modelling in business. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Short-term forecasting of electricity demand by decomposition analysis

A model for short-term forecasting of electricity demand is developed, which consists of an annual base load augmented by demand variations on a weekly, daily, and hourly or half-hourly basis. Each of these components is individually modelled and forecast, and the aggregate forecast is refined by inclusion of a stochastic component for characterization of variations not attributable to elements of time. The approach is consistent with the operational concept of power system management, and can be readily adopted for on-line forecasting and control.     

Solving nonconvex economic load dispatch problem using particle swarm optimization with time varying acceleration coefficients

This article presents the design and application of an efficient hybrid heuristic search method to solve the practical economic dispatch problem considering many nonlinear characteristics of power generators, and their operational constraints, such as transmission losses, valve‐point effects, multi‐fuel options, prohibited operating zones, ramp rate limits and spinning reserve. These practical operation constraints which can usually be found at the same time in realistic power system operations make the economic load dispatch (ELD) problem a nonsmooth optimization problem having complex and nonconvex features with heavy equality and inequality constraints. A particle swarm optimization with time varying acceleration coefficients is proposed to determine optimal ELD problem in this paper. The proposed methodology easily takes care of solving nonconvex ELD problems along with different constraints like transmission losses, dynamic operation constraints, and prohibited operating zones. The proposed approach has been implemented on the 3‐machines 6‐bus, IEEE 5‐machines 14‐bus, IEEE 6‐machines 30‐bus systems and 13 thermal units power system. The proposed technique is compared with solve the ELD problem with hybrid approach by using the valve‐point effect. The comparison results prove the capability of the proposed method give significant improvements in the generation cost for the ELD problem. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 299–308, 2016     

模糊处理变结构神经网络日负荷预测方法研究

对于受不确定因素影响的日电力负荷,首次提出了基于模糊分类规则的变结构神经网络负荷预测模型,考虑从两方面改进预测精度,一个方面是通过模糊分类规则,使过去的负荷数据分为不同气候特征,选用同类特征数据进行预测,另一方面是通过神经网络变结构优化,确定最优网络和最优拟合逼近,从而得到最优的预测结果,这种新方法同时考虑了天气因素的影响和神经网络的最优确定,因此,较大提高了日负荷预测的精度。     

基于组合预测模型的广东省第三产业产值预测

首先分析了影响广东省第三产业发展的主要因素,指出由于上述因素相互制约、相互影响,导致第三产业的发展呈现出高度的非线性特征,并使得单一的预测模型在预测效果和泛化能力方面难以胜任.在此基础上,提出了基于神经网络集成的组合预测模型,对广东省第三产业的发展进行预测,阐述了算法的基本原理和数据处理流程,实证分析表明:基于神经网络集成的组合预测模型要比单一预测模型的预测精度高.     

Info-gap forecasting and the advantage of sub-optimal models

We consider forecasting in systems whose underlying laws are uncertain, while contextual information suggests that future system properties will differ from the past. We consider linear discrete-time systems, and use a non-probabilistic info-gap model to represent uncertainty in the future transition matrix. The forecaster desires the average forecast of a specific state variable to be within a specified interval around the correct value. Traditionally, forecasting uses a model with optimal fidelity to historical data. However, since structural changes are anticipated, this is a poor strategy. Our first theorem asserts the existence, and indicates the construction, of forecasting models with sub-optimal-fidelity to historical data which are more robust to model error than the historically optimal model. Our second theorem identifies conditions in which the probability of forecast success increases with increasing robustness to model error. The proposed methodology identifies reliable forecasting models for systems whose trajectories evolve with Knightian uncertainty for structural change over time. We consider various examples, including forecasting European Central Bank interest rates following 9/11.