关于全国私人汽车拥有量的分析

随着人民物质文化生活的提高,近年来中国私人汽车市场呈现出异常火爆的局面.为了对全国私人汽车拥有量的统计特征有深入的认识,借助于SAS统计分析软件,我对2002年全国31省市的私人汽车拥有量的资料作了统计分析,得到了一些有意义的结论.     

我国汽车消费贷款的前景预测与分析

本通过对我国居民五十年来耐用品消费结构变化的分析、我国未来汽车市场需求量的计算，以及我国汽车消费贷款的实例分析，从而得出我国未来汽车市场潜力很大，汽车消费贷款前景十分广阔，将为我国国民经济的发展，特别是汽车工业的发展起到理想的催化作用。     

基于层次分析法的几种家用汽车购车模型

目前,随着我国人民生活水平的不断提高,家庭购车逐渐成为一种新的需求.但面对纷繁多变的汽车市场,很多消费者苦于车型的抉择.为了解决家庭购车中的科学决策问题,根据来自汽车销售市场的实际信息,以目前几种10万元以下的主流家用轿车为研究对象,应用层次分析法得到购买家用汽车的数学模型,从而使定量化地解决了车型抉择问题.     

互联网租车市场的演化博弈分析

通过分析互联网租车市场的出现对传统租车市场造成的影响,以探究通过何种策略避免两个租车市场的恶性竞争,构建了基于Bertrand模型的互联网租车方和传统租车方在合作与非合作条件下的静态博弈,结果显示两者在合作模式下会受困于个体理性与集体理性冲突的矛盾中。因此,为了解决这个矛盾,加入政府部门构建多主体合作演化博弈模型,推导出政府和两个租车市场的演化稳定策略,并对模型的演化路径和演化结果进行研究,以期为政府部门对租车市场的管理决策提供参考。     

基于人工神经网络的轿车市场短期需求预测

在分析影响轿车市场需求因素的基础上 ,借助人工神经网络对轿车市场需求进行预测 .计算实例表明 ,用神经网络预测轿车市场需求是非常准确而有效的 .     

基于交互式并行驾驶模拟实验的跟驰状态汽车驾驶倾向性动态辨识模型验证方法

驾驶倾向性的实时识别是实现汽车辅助驾驶尤其是主动安全预警系统智能化的关键理论和技术.通过交互式并行模拟驾驶实验获取跟驰状态下各倾向性类型的行车数据对建立的驾驶员倾向性的动态辨识模型进行验证,并将验证结果与心理问卷测试的结果相对比.结果表明所建辨识模型可行,能够实现对跟驰状态下驾驶员倾向性类型的实时识别,为个性化汽车主动安全系统的实现提供理论基础.     

警车配置及巡逻方案研究

以警车的配置与巡逻方案为研究对象,建立了一套警车巡逻模型,并提出巡逻效果显著度及隐藏性的评价标准,分别针对警车初始位置配置与巡逻方案的制定,提出警车配置优化选址的贪婪算法与基于多Agent的警车巡逻方案设计方法,给出了不同情景下的配置及巡逻方案:①在只考虑警车选址配置的情况下,配置19辆警车可以使全市路网警车覆盖率达到92.8%;②在顾及巡逻效果显著性与隐藏性的情况下,配置25辆警车使全市路网在整个巡逻过程中平均警车覆盖率达到90.9%;③在配置10辆警车的情况下,使得全市路网在整个巡逻过程中平均警车覆盖率达到61.5%.     

创新驱动模式下战略性新兴产业政府补贴策略分析

针对政府补贴难以激励战略性新兴产业形成创新驱动力的问题,以新能源汽车产业为例,构建了一个旨在促进企业技术研发的政府创新补贴策略分析模型。假设产业呈现明显的创新驱动特征,模型分别针对政府理性决策与有限理性决策的情况,对政府创新补贴及企业创新投入策略进行了博弈均衡分析,并讨论了技术创新环境的改善对最优策略及局中人收益的影响。结果表明,在创新驱动模式下,企业最优创新投入比例对政府补贴水平不敏感,且过高的补贴可能挤出企业创新投入,容易形成企业套利空间。此外,改善技术创新环境对强化企业市场主体地位,弱化政府管制对市场的干预具有积极作用。     

应用GM（1,1）模型预测经济发展中的创汇和利税

本试图用灰色模型ＧＭ（１,１）分析我国高我企业经济出口创汇及利税发展趋势,通过具体实例显示,应用这种模型能较有效地预测创汇和利税的趋势。     

The determinants of equity transmission between the new and used car markets: a hedonic analysis

Drawing on a data set containing 371082 observations on new and used cars from 2008, this study employs a hedonic model to estimate the determinants of prices in the primary and secondary car markets in Germany. We are specifically interested in identifying those vehicle attributes that are responsible for retaining the car’s value in the used car market. Beyond parameterizing the influence of technical features and brand name on the retail price, our model simultaneously generates a corresponding set of parameter estimates for the used car price, thereby allowing us to formally compare their magnitudes across the two markets. This comparison reveals that fuel consumption, in particular, is an important determinant of the price, one whose impact is higher in magnitude in the used car market than in the new car market. Large heterogeneity in how cars hold their investment value is also seen to depend on body type and brand/model name.     

Solving a multi periodic stochastic model of the rail–car fleet sizing by two-stage optimization formulation

We propose a formulation and solution procedure for optimizing the fleet size and freight car allocation under uncertainty demands. There are important interactions between decisions on sizing a rail–car fleet and utilizing that fleet. Consequently, the optimum use of empty rail–cars for demands response in the length of the time periods one of advantages the proposed model. The model also provides rail network information such as yard capacity, unmet demands, and number of loaded and empty rail–car at any given time and location. Consequently, the model helping managers or decision makers of any train company for planning and decision making. We propose two-stage solution procedure for solve rail–car fleet sizing problem. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the model and solution methodology.     

能源消费对中国工业化进程制约作用的实证分析

本文运用经济计量方法,从不同角度全面考察了工业部门能源强度的变化趋势及工业化水平与能源需求之间的关联关系。结果表明,工业部门能源消费强度随中国工业化进程的推进呈下降趋势;中国工业化水平与能源消费之间存在长期均衡关系,这种长期均衡关系的短期调整幅度较大;中国工业化水平对能源需求的贡献份额较小,能源需求不会成为制约我国工业化进程中的瓶颈。从目前实际出发,对短期调整效应较弱的工业部门实行节能技术改造,走适合我国基本国情的、有助于资源节约型的新型工业化道路是目前及今后一个时期的必然选择。     

基于信息熵的轿车选型模型及应用

针对日前消费者所关注的轿车选型问题,设计包括动力性、经济性、安全可靠性、占用空间及环保性和美观舒适性五个方面的轿车车型评价体系及评价方法,应用信息熵方法确立各指标的权重值,并应用该模型对5款家用经济型轿车进行评价.评价结论为消费者进行轿车选型提供了理论及实际依据.     

Decomposition methods for a spatial model for long-term energy pricing problem

We consider an energy production network with zones of production and transfer links. Each zone representing an energy market (a country, part of a country or a set of countries) has to satisfy the local demand using its hydro and thermal units and possibly importing and exporting using links connecting the zones. Assuming that we have the appropriate tools to solve a single zonal problem (approximate dynamic programming, dual dynamic programming, etc.), the proposed algorithm allows us to coordinate the productions of all zones. We propose two reformulations of the dynamic model which lead to different decomposition strategies. Both algorithms are adaptations of known monotone operator splitting methods, namely the alternating direction method of multipliers and the proximal decomposition algorithm which have been proved to be useful to solve convex separable optimization problems. Both algorithms present similar performance in theory but our numerical experimentation on real-size dynamic models have shown that proximal decomposition is better suited to the coordination of the zonal subproblems, becoming a natural choice to solve the dynamic optimization of the European electricity market.     

商业银行多项资产的合理分布

随着我国金融市场的进一步改革和完善,商业银行必须加强风险意识、优化资产结构、进行科学的资产管理,追求最大的利润,这已经成为日益增长的社会需求,本运用科布-道格拉斯型的效用函数,对商业银行资产的合理分配建立了一个理论模型,并分别讨论了在确定情形下和不确定情形下国有商业银行应该如何进行资产的合理分布,以达到规避风险和利润最大,即达到效用最大的目的。     

Two local search approaches for solving real-life car sequencing problems

The NP-hard problem of car sequencing appears as the heart of the logistic process of many car manufacturers. The subject of the ROADEF’2005 challenge addressed a car sequencing problem proposed by the car manufacturer RENAULT, more complex than the academic problem generally addressed in the literature. This paper describes two local search approaches for this problem. In the first part, a new approach by very large-scale neighborhood search is presented. This approach, designed during the qualification stage preceding the final, is based on an original integer linear programming formulation. The second part is dedicated to the approach which enabled us to win the ROADEF’2005 challenge. Inspired by the latest works on the subject, this one is based on very fast explorations of small neighborhoods. Our contribution here is mainly algorithmic, in particular by showing how much exploiting invariants speeds up the neighborhood evaluation and contributes to the diversification of the search. Finally, the two approaches are compared and discussed through an extensive computational study on RENAULT’s benchmarks. The main conclusion drawn at this point is that sophisticated metaheuristics are useless to solve car sequencing problems. More generally, our victory on ROADEF’2005 challenge demonstrates that algorithmic aspects, sometimes neglected, remain the key ingredients for designing and engineering high-performance local search heuristics.     

中小制造企业物流配送模式选择的研究

本文从供应链的角度研究了中小制造企业物流配送模式及其选择的问题。利用合作博弈理论建立配送博弈费用模型,通过对中小制造企业可能采取的四种配送模式的费用模型求解,提出了适用于中小制造企业的物流配送模式,即第三方配送和共同配送相结合的配送模式,为中小制造企业物流配送模式的选择提供可行的决策参考。本文的研究结果突破了现有研究在单一配送模式下企业物流配送问题的局限,通过比较几种配送模式的费用,提出适合中小制造企业的复合式的物流配送模式。     

Cointegration analysis of brand and category sales: Stationarity and long‐run equilibrium in market shares

The present study uses modern time series methodology to understand long‐run equilibrium in markets and provides additional evidence of the frequent existence of stationary market shares for frequently purchased consumer products. Dekimpe and Hanssens, Marketing Science 1995; 14(2):G109–121 using a database of over 400 prior studies, found that 78 per cent of the market share series they studied were stationary, but that 68 per cent of the sales series were evolving. Our findings reconcile these results. A major contribution of this paper is its demonstration that the prior empirical evidence that a majority of sales series is in evolution is consistent with stationary market shares, if brand sales and category sales are cointegrated. To the extent that competitive activities have an effect on market share, an implication of our findings is that these activities may, in general, only have a temporary effect on market share. Finally, we distinguish, from a strategic perspective, between sales and share response at the primary‐demand level (category sales), selective‐demand level (brand sales) and relative‐position level (market share) and identify strategic scenarios depending upon their stable/evolving nature. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于远期合约的电力市场博弈分析

通过建立零售商与发电厂商之间的远期合约博弈模型,分析在发电和售电分开的电力市场模式下,零售商与发电厂商之间的远期合约在抑制发电厂商寡头垄断方面的作用.研究表明:在零售竞争的市场中,零售商采用激励策略主动与发电厂商签订远期合约,从而实现零售商自身利润最优化的目标,并在一定程度上减少了发电厂商的垄断利润,同时零售商的这种主动策略行为还能促进社会福利最大化的实现.这些分析为今后我国电力市场改革和电力金融衍生产品的创新提供了理论参考.     

基于破产理论的我国极端洪水保险风险组合随机优化模型

极端洪水给人类造成了巨大损失,极端洪水保险是分散极端洪水风险的一种有效手段.基于政府、市场和公众合作的极端洪水保险模式是适合我国国情的.在此模式下,建立政府有效参与的保险公司和保险区域风险组合随机优化模型,保证极端洪水保险的有效供给和需求,为合理厘定保险费率提供理论基础.随机优化模型中充分考虑了保险公司的破产概率、稳定性经营和保险区域的灾后恢复能力.最后给出了此模型的收敛性定理.