Optimal spot market inventory strategies in the presence of cost and price risk

We consider a firm facing random demand at the end of a single period of random length. At any time during the period, the firm can either increase or decrease inventory by buying or selling on a spot market where price fluctuates randomly over time. The firm’s goal is to maximize expected discounted profit over the period, where profit consists of the revenue from selling goods to meet demand, on the spot market, or in salvage, minus the cost of buying goods, and transaction, penalty, and holding costs. We first show that this optimization problem is equivalent to a two-dimensional singular control problem. We then use a recently developed control-theoretic approach to show that the optimal policy is completely characterized by a simple price-dependent two-threshold policy. In a series of computational experiments, we explore the value of actively managing inventory during the period rather than making a purchase decision at the start of the period, and then passively waiting for demand. In these experiments, we observe that as price volatility increases, the value of actively managing inventory increases until some limit is reached.     

Flexible capacity strategy with multiple market periods under demand uncertainty and investment constraint

We establish a flexible capacity strategy model with multiple market periods under demand uncertainty and investment constraints. In the model, a firm makes its capacity decision under a financial budget constraint at the beginning of the planning horizon which embraces n market periods. In each market period, the firm goes through three decision-making stages: the safety production stage, the additional production stage and the optimal sales stage. We formulate the problem and obtain the optimal capacity, the optimal safety production, the optimal additional production and the optimal sales of each market period under different situations. We find that there are two thresholds for the unit capacity cost. When the capacity cost is very low, the optimal capacity is determined by its financial budget; when the capacity cost is very high, the firm keeps its optimal capacity at its safety production level; and when the cost is in between of the two thresholds, the optimal capacity is determined by the capacity cost, the number of market periods and the unit cost of additional production. Further, we explore the endogenous safety production level. We verify the conditions under which the firm has different optimal safety production levels. Finally, we prove that the firm can benefit from the investment only when the designed planning horizon is longer than a threshold. Moreover, we also derive the formulae for the above three thresholds.     

A discrete competitive facility location model with variable attractiveness

We consider the discrete version of the competitive facility location problem in which new facilities have to be located by a new market entrant firm to compete against already existing facilities that may belong to one or more competitors. The demand is assumed to be aggregated at certain points in the plane and the new facilities can be located at predetermined candidate sites. We employ Huff's gravity-based rule in modelling the behaviour of the customers where the probability that customers at a demand point patronize a certain facility is proportional to the facility attractiveness and inversely proportional to the distance between the facility site and demand point. The objective of the firm is to determine the locations of the new facilities and their attractiveness levels so as to maximize the profit, which is calculated as the revenue from the customers less the fixed cost of opening the facilities and variable cost of setting their attractiveness levels. We formulate a mixed-integer nonlinear programming model for this problem and propose three methods for its solution: a Lagrangean heuristic, a branch-and-bound method with Lagrangean relaxation, and another branch-and-bound method with nonlinear programming relaxation. Computational results obtained on a set of randomly generated instances show that the last method outperforms the others in terms of accuracy and efficiency and can provide an optimal solution in a reasonable amount of time.     

Capacity and Production Managment in a Single Product Manufacturing System

In planning and managing production systems, manufacturers have two main strategies for responding to uncertainty: they build inventory to hedge against periods in which the production capacity is not sufficient to satisfy demand, or they temporarily increase the production capacity by “purchasing” extra capacity. We consider the problem of minimizing the long-run average cost of holding inventory and/or purchasing extra capacity for a single facility producing a single part-type and assume that the driving uncertainty is demand fluctuation. We show that the optimal production policy is of a hedging point policy type where two hedging levels are associated with each discrete state of the system: a positive hedging level (inventory target) and a negative one (backlog level below which extra capacity should be purchased). We establish some ordering of the hedging levels, derive equations satisfied by the steady-state probability distribution of the inventory/backlog, and give a more detailed analysis of the optimal control policy in a two state (high and low demand rate) model.     

Optimally maintaining a Markovian deteriorating system with limited imperfect repairs

We consider the problem of optimally maintaining a periodically inspected system that deteriorates according to a discrete-time Markov process and has a limit on the number of repairs that can be performed before it must be replaced. After each inspection, a decision maker must decide whether to repair the system, replace it with a new one, or leave it operating until the next inspection, where each repair makes the system more susceptible to future deterioration. If the system is found to be failed at an inspection, then it must be either repaired or replaced with a new one at an additional penalty cost. The objective is to minimize the total expected discounted cost due to operation, inspection, maintenance, replacement and failure. We formulate an infinite-horizon Markov decision process model and derive key structural properties of the resulting optimal cost function that are sufficient to establish the existence of an optimal threshold-type policy with respect to the system’s deterioration level and cumulative number of repairs. We also explore the sensitivity of the optimal policy to inspection, repair and replacement costs. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the structure and the sensitivity of the optimal policy.     

Optimal ordering policies in inventory systems with random demand and random deal offerings

In this paper, we determine the optimal order policies for a firm facing random demand and random deal offerings. In a periodic review setting, a firm may first place an order at the regular price. Later in the period, if a price promotion is offered by the supplier (with a certain probability), the firm may decide to place another order. We consider two models in the paper. In the first model, the firm does not share the cost savings (due to the promotion offered by the supplier) with its own customers, i.e. its demand distribution remains fixed. In the second model, the cost savings are shared with the final customers. As a result, the demand distribution shifts to the right. For both the models, in a dynamic finite-horizon problem, the order policy structure is divided into three regions and is as follows. If the initial inventory level for the firm exceeds a certain threshold level, it is optimal not to order anything. If it is in the medium range, it is optimal to wait for the promotion and order only if it is offered. The order quantity when the promotion is offered has an ‘order up to’ policy structure. Finally, if the inventory level is below another threshold, it is optimal to place an order at the regular price, and to place a second order if the promotion is offered. The low initial inventory level makes it risky to just wait for the promotion to be offered. The sum of the order quantities in this case has an ‘order up to’ structure. Finally, we model the supplier's problem as a Stackelberg game and discuss the motivation for the supplier to offer a promotion for the case of uniform demand distribution for the firm. In the first model (when the firm does not share the cost savings with its customers), we show that it is rarely optimal for the supplier to offer a promotion. In the second model, the supplier may offer a promotion depending on the price elasticity of the product.     

Optimal stopping with a capacity constraint: Generalizing Shepp’s urn scheme

We formulate an optimal stopping problem for a variant of Shepp’s urn model in which it is possible to sample more than one item at each stage. Using a Markov decision process model, we establish monotonicity of the optimal value function and show that the optimal policy is a monotone threshold policy that prescribes either not sampling, or sampling the maximum number of items permitted. A special case exhibits convexity and submodularity, but these properties do not hold in general.     

Timing order fulfillment of capital goods under a constrained capacity

This paper studies the order-fulfillment process of a supplier producing multiple customized capital goods. The times when orders are confirmed by customers are random. The supplier can only work on one product at any time due to capacity constraints. The supplier must determine the optimal time to start the process for each order so that the total expected cost of having the goods ready before or after their orders are confirmed is minimized. We formulate this problem as a discrete time Markov decision process. The optimal policy is complex in general. It has a threshold-type structure and can be fully characterized only for some special cases. Based on our formulation, we compute the optimal policy and quantify the value of jointly managing the order fulfillment processes of multiple orders and the value of taking into account demand arrival time uncertainty.     

Joint pricing and inventory control with a Markovian demand model

We consider the joint pricing and inventory control problem for a single product over a finite horizon and with periodic review. The demand distribution in each period is determined by an exogenous Markov chain. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. The surplus costs as well as fixed and variable costs are state dependent. We show the existence of an optimal (s, S, p)-type feedback policy for the additive demand model. We extend the model to the case of emergency orders. We compute the optimal policy for a class of Markovian demand and illustrate the benefits of dynamic pricing over fixed pricing through numerical examples. The results indicate that it is more beneficial to implement dynamic pricing in a Markovian demand environment with a high fixed ordering cost or with high demand variability.     

Sourcing from suppliers with random yield for price-dependent demand

We study a multi-period inventory planning problem. In each period, the firm under consideration can source from two possibly unreliable suppliers for a price-dependent demand. Our analysis suggests that the optimal procurement policy is neither a simple reorder-point policy nor a complex one without any structure, as previous studies suggest. Instead, we prove the existence of a reorder point for each supplier. No order is placed to that supplier for any inventory level above the reorder point and a positive order is issued to that supplier for almost every inventory level below the reorder point. We characterize conditions under which the optimal policy reveals monotone response to changes in the inventory level. Furthermore, two special cases of our model are examined in detail to demonstrate how our analysis generalizes a number of well-known results in the literature.     

Managing an integrated production inventory system with information on the production and demand status and multiple non-unitary demand classes

In this paper, we study a system consisting of a manufacturer or supplier serving several retailers or clients. The manufacturer produces a standard product in a make-to-stock fashion in anticipation of orders emanating from n retailers with different contractual agreements hence ranked/prioritized according to their importance. Orders from the retailers are non-unitary and have sizes that follow a discrete distribution. The total production time is assumed to follow a k₀-Erlang distribution. Order inter-arrival time for class l demand is assumed to follow a k_l-Erlang distribution. Work-in-process as well as the finished product incur a, per unit per unit of time, carrying cost. Unsatisfied units from an order from a particular demand class are assumed lost and incur a class specific lost sale cost. The objective is to determine the optimal production and inventory allocation policies so as to minimize the expected total (discounted or average) cost. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and show that the optimal production policy is of the base-stock type with base-stock levels non-decreasing in the demand stages. We also show that the optimal inventory allocation policy is a rationing policy with rationing levels non-decreasing in the demand stages. We also study several important special cases and provide, through numerical experiments, managerial insights including the effect of the different sources of variability on the operating cost and the benefits of such contracts as Vendor Managed Inventory or Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment. Also, we show that a heuristic that ignores the dependence of the base-stock and rationing levels on the demands stages can perform very poorly compared to the optimal policy.     

A coordination system for seasonal demand problems in the supply chain

This article considers a single product coordination system using a periodic review policy, participants of the system including a supplier and one or more heterogeneous buyers over a discrete time planning horizon in a manufacturing supply chain. In the coordination system, the demand of buyer in each period is deterministic, the supplier replenishes all the buyers, and all participants agree to plan replenishment to minimize total system costs. To achieve the objective of the coordination system, we make use of small lot sizing and frequent delivery policies (JIT philosophy) to transport inventory between supplier and buyers. Moreover, demand variations of buyers are allowed in the coordination system to suit real-world situations, especially for hi-tech industries. Furthermore, according to the mechanisms of minimizing the total relevant costs, the proposed method can obtain the optimal number of deliveries, shipping points and shipping quantities in each order for all participants in the coordination system.     

Classes of Discrete Convexity Properties

In the general first-level classification of the convexity properties for sets, discrete convexities appear in more classes. A second-level classification identifies more subclasses containing discrete convexity properties, which appear as approximations either of classical convexity or of fuzzy convexity. First, we prove that all these convexity concepts are defined by segmental methods. The type of segmental method involved in the construction of discrete convexity determines the subclass to which it belongs. The subclasses containing the convexity properties that have discrete particular cases are also presented.     

Constraint programming for stochastic inventory systems under shortage cost

One of the most important policies adopted in inventory control is the replenishment cycle policy. Such a policy provides an effective means of damping planning instability and coping with demand uncertainty. In this paper we develop a constraint programming approach able to compute optimal replenishment cycle policy parameters under non-stationary stochastic demand, ordering, holding and shortage costs. We show how in our model it is possible to exploit the convexity of the cost-function during the search to dynamically compute bounds and perform cost-based filtering. Our computational experience show the effectiveness of our approach. Furthermore, we use the optimal solutions to analyze the quality of the solutions provided by an existing approximate mixed integer programming approach that exploits a piecewise linear approximation for the cost function.     

Two-period dynamic versus fixed-ratio pricing in a capacity constrained duopoly

This paper analyzes the impact of dynamic and fixed-ratio pricing policies on firm profits and equilibrium prices under competition. Firms that have equal inventories of perfectly substitutable and perishable products compete for customer segments that demand the product at different times. In each period, customers first purchase from the low price firm and then from the high price firm up to their inventories, provided the prices are lower than the maximum they are willing to pay. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: although dynamic pricing is a more sophisticated policy than fixed-ratio pricing, it may lead to decreased equilibrium profits; under both pricing policies, one firm assumes the role of a low-cost high-output firm while the other assumes the role of a high-cost low-output firm; and, the supply demand ratio has more impact on the outcome of the competition than the heterogeneity in consumer reservation prices.     

The setting of profit targets for target oriented divisions

Setting profit targets and striving to achieve them is fundamental to business survival and success. However, there has been little research on modeling profit-target setting. In this paper, we study analytic target setting under a common business scenario where a firm is in control of multiple divisions. Both the firm and the divisions maximize the profit probability, i.e., the probability of achieving some given profit target. The firm sets a profit target for each division which then acts as a price-setting newsvendor. We first obtain the optimal order quantity, the optimal retail price, and the maximal profit probability of a single division given its assigned target. We then derive the firm’s profit probability and focus on two specific cases to gain more managerial insights. In the first case of fair target setting, we show that when each division’s demand distribution has an increasing failure rate, if a division has a relatively high (low) production cost, its assigned profit target decreases (increases) with regard to its price elasticity. In the second case, if the firm is in control of two identical divisions, each division’s optimal profit target is just half of the firm’s profit target when the price elasticity is two or more, regardless of production cost and demand distribution.     

Production and Subcontracting Strategies for Manufacturers with Limited Capacity and Volatile Demand

We study a manufacturing firm that builds a product to stock to meet a random demand. If there is a positive surplus of finished goods, customers make their purchases without delay and leave. If there is a backlog, the customers are sensitive to the quoted lead time and some choose not to order if they feel that the lead time is excessive. A set of subcontractors, who have different costs and capacities, are available to supplement the firm's production capacity. We derive a feedback policy that determines the production rate and the rate at which the subcontractors are requested to deliver products. The performance of the system, when it is managed according to this policy, is evaluated.     

Joint pricing and inventory replenishment decisions with returns and expediting

We study a single-item periodic-review model for the joint pricing and inventory replenishment problem with returns and expediting. Demand in consecutive periods are independent random variables and their distributions are price sensitive. At the end of each period, after the demand is realized, a buyer can return excess stocks to a supplier. Or, if there are stockouts, the buyer can place an expediting order at the supplier to reduce the amount of shortage. Unfilled demands are fully backlogged. We characterize the optimal dynamic policy that determines the pricing, inventory replenishment, and adjustment decisions in each period so that the total expected discounted profit is maximized. For a very general stochastic demand function, we can show that the optimal replenishment policy is a modified base-stock policy, the optimal pricing policy is a modified base-stock-list-price policy, and the optimal policy for inventory adjustment follows a dual-threshold policy. We further study the operational effect of returns and expediting. Analytical and numerical results demonstrate that returns and expediting lead to a significant profit increase in a number of situations, including limited supply capacity, sufficient flexibility of the expediting order, high demand uncertainty, and a price-sensitive market.     

The Trended Inventory Lot Sizing Problem with Shortages Under a New Replenishment Policy

In the past few years, considerable attention has been given to the inventory lot sizing problem with trended demand over a fixed horizon. The traditional replenishment policy is to avoid shortages in the last cycle. Each of the remaining cycles starts with a replenishment and inventory is held for a certain period which is followed by a period of shortages. A new replenishment policy is to start each cycle with shortages and after a period of shortages a replenishment should be made. In this paper, we show that this new type of replenishment policy is superior to the traditional one. We further propose four heuristic procedures that follow the new replenishment policy. These are the constant demand approximation method, the equal cycle length heuristic, the extended Silver approach, and the extended least cost solution procedure. We also examine the cost and computation time performances of these heuristic procedures through an empirical study. The number of test problems solved to optimality, average and maximum cost deviation from optimum were used as measures of cost performance. The results of the 10 000 test problems reveal that the extended least cost approach is most cost effective.     

Location and allocation for distribution systems with transshipments and transportion economies of scale

Locating transshipment facilities and allocating origins and destinations to transshipment facilities are important decisions for many distribution and logistic systems. Models that treat demand as a continuous density over the service region often assume certain facility locations or a certain allocation of demand. It may be assumed that facility locations lie on a rectangular grid or that demand is allocated to the nearest facility or allocated such that each facility serves an equal amount of demand. These assumptions result in suboptimal distribution systems. This paper compares the transportation cost for suboptimal location and allocation schemes to the optimal cost to determine if suboptimal location and allocation schemes can produce nearly optimal transportation costs. Analytical results for distribution to a continuous demand show that nearly optimal costs can be achieved with suboptimal locations. An example of distribution to discrete demand points indicates the difficulties in applying these results to discrete demand problems.