Risk-sensitive capacity control in revenue management

Both the static and the dynamic single-leg revenue management problem are studied from the perspective of a risk-averse decision maker. Structural results well-known from the risk-neutral case are extended to the risk-averse case on the basis of an exponential utility function. In particular, using the closure properties of log-convex functions, it is shown that an optimal booking policy can be characterized by protection levels, depending on the actual booking class and the remaining time. Moreover, monotonicity of the protection levels with respect to the booking class and the remaining time are proven.     

Network capacity management under competition

We consider capacity management games between airlines who transport passengers over a joint airline network. Passengers are likely to purchase alternative tickets of the same class from competing airlines if they do not get tickets from their preferred airlines. We propose a Nash and a generalized Nash game model to address the competitive network revenue management problem. These two models are based on well-known deterministic linear programming and probabilistic nonlinear programming approximations for the non-competitive network capacity management problem. We prove the existence of a Nash equilibrium for both games and investigate the uniqueness of a Nash equilibrium for the Nash game. We provide some further uniqueness and comparative statics analysis when the network is reduced to a single-leg flight structure with two products. The comparative statics analysis reveals some useful insights on how Nash equilibrium booking limits change monotonically in the prices of products. Our numerical results indicate that airlines can generate higher and more stable revenues from a booking scheme that is based on the combination of the partitioned booking-limit policy and the generalized Nash game model. The results also show that this booking scheme is robust irrespective of which booking scheme the competitor takes.     

Analysis of seat allocation and overbooking decisions with hybrid information

We investigate a single-leg airline revenue management problem where an airline has limited demand information and uncensored no-show information. To use such hybrid information for simultaneous overbooking and booking control decisions, we combine expected overbooking cost with revenue. Then we take a robust optimization approach with a regret-based criterion. While the criterion is defined on a myriad of possible demand scenarios, we show that only a small number of them are necessary to compute the objective. We also prove that nested booking control policies are optimal among all deterministic ones. We further develop an effective computational method to find the optimal policy and compare our policy to others proposed in the literature.     

An option-based revenue management procedure for strategic airline alliances

An airline has to decide whether to accept an incoming customer request for a seat in the airplane or to reject it in hope that another customer will request the seat later at a higher price. Capacity control, as one of the instruments of revenue management, gives a solution to this decision problem. In the presence of strategic alliances capacity control changes. For the case of two airlines in the alliance and a single flight leg we propose an option-based capacity control process. The determination of booking limits for capacity control is done with real options. A simulation model is introduced to evaluate the booking process of the partner airlines within the strategic alliance, considering the option-based procedure. In an iterative process the booking limits are improved with simulation-based optimization. The results of the option-based procedure will be compared with the results of the simulation-based optimization, the results of a first-come-first-served (FCFS) approach and ex post optimal solutions.     

Capacity allocation for demand of different customer-product-combinations with cancellations, no-shows, and overbooking when there is a sequential delivery of service

We consider a problem where different classes of customers can book different types of services in advance and the service company has to respond immediately to the booking request confirming or rejecting it. Due to the possibility of cancellations before the day of service, or no-shows at the day of service, overbooking the given capacity is a viable decision. The objective of the service company is to maximize profit made of class-type specific revenues, refunds for cancellations or no-shows as well as the cost of overtime. For the calculation of the latter, information of the underlying appointment schedule is required. Throughout the paper we will relate the problem to capacity allocation in radiology services. Drawing upon ideas from revenue management, overbooking, and appointment scheduling we model the problem as a Markov decision process in discrete time which due to proper aggregation can be optimally solved with an iterative stochastic dynamic programming approach. In an experimental study we successfully apply the approach to a real world problem with data from the radiology department of a hospital. Furthermore, we compare the optimal policy to four heuristic policies, of whom one is currently in use. We can show that the optimal policy significantly improves the currently used policy and that a nested booking limit type policy closely approximates the optimal policy and is thus recommended for use in practice.     

Two-dimensional cargo overbooking models

This paper introduces two-dimensional (weight and volume) overbooking problems arising mainly in the cargo revenue management, and compares them with one-dimensional problems. It considers capacity spoilage and cargo offloading costs, and minimizes their sum. For one-dimensional problems, it shows that the optimal overbooking limit does not change with the magnitude of the booking requests. In two-dimensional problems, the overbooking limit is replaced by a curve. The curve, along with the volume and weight axes, encircles the acceptance region. The booking requests are accepted if they fall within this region. We present Curve (Cab) and Rectangle (Rab) models. The boundary of the acceptance region in the Cab (resp. Rab) model is a curve (resp. rectangle). The optimal curve for the Cab model is shown to be unique and continuous. Moreover, it can be obtained by solving a series of simple equations. Finding the optimal rectangle for the Rab model is more challenging, so we propose an approximate rectangle. The approximate rectangle is a limiting solution in the sense that it converges to the optimal rectangle as the booking requests increase. The approximate rectangle is numerically shown to yield costs that are very close to the optimal costs.     

Strategic and operational decisions in restaurant revenue management

The paper addresses restaurant revenue management from both a strategic and an operational point of view. Strategic decisions in restaurants are mainly related to defining the most profitable combination of tables that will constitute the restaurant. We propose new formulations of the so-called “Tables Mix Problem” by taking into account several features of the real setting. We compare the proposed models in a computational study showing that restaurants, with the capacity of managing tables as renewable resources and of combining different-sized tables, can improve expected revenue performances. Operational decisions are mainly concerned with the more profitable assignment of tables to customers. Indeed, the “Parties Mix Problem” consists of deciding on accepting or denying a booking request from different groups of customers, with the aim of maximizing the total expected revenue. A dynamic formulation of the “Parties Mix Problem” is presented together with a linear programming approximation, whose solutions can be used to define capacity control policies based on booking limits and bid prices. Computational results compare the proposed policies and show that they lead to higher revenues than the traditional strategies used to support decision makers.     

Revenue impacts of fare input and demand forecast accuracy in airline yield management

Most airline yield management seat allocation models require inputs of the expected demand by fare class, the variance of this demand, and a revenue value associated with the bookings expected in each class. In this paper, we examine the impacts of errors in the demand forecasts and fare estimates on the revenue performance of some commonly used seat allocation heuristic decision rules. Through simulation analysis of scenarios in which the fare or demand inputs used by the models differ from the ‘actual’ values simulated in the flight booking process, we examine the effects of unexpected variability in the actual fare values, misestimation of the mean fare values of the different booking classes, and forecasting errors in the expected demand for each class. Our findings confirm previous studies that found the accuracy of the demand forecasts to be of greatest importance, but we also uncover some instances where misestimation of the mean demands and/or mean fare values used as inputs to the decision models can actually be beneficial. At the same time, we conclude that the variability of actual fare values around the mean fare values used as inputs does not have a significant impact, given the mathematical characteristics of existing EMSR seat allocation methods.     

A revenue management model for products with two capacity dimensions

Many perishable products and services have multiple capacity attributes. Shipping capacity of container liners, for example, is measured by both volume and weight. Containers with different size consume various capacities in the two dimensions. Restaurant revenue management aims to maximize the revenue per available seat-hour that captures both the number of dining tables and service manpower. Similar issues arise in the air cargo, trucking and health care industries.     

A stochastic approach to professional services firms’ revenue optimization

Regarding professional service time as perishable goods, it should be possible to directly migrate the successful airline revenue management techniques to professional services firms (PSFs) for their analogous business characters. However, there are salient differences between airlines and PSFs should be highlighted—the network structure of length-of-continuance and capacity allocation of multifunctional staff. Customers booking to be served from a first continuance time to a last continuance time in consecutive time continuance. Multifunctional professionals should be properly allocated to maximize the benefit. The arrival demands and lengths of service are stochastic in nature.     

A dual-response forwarding approach for containerizing air cargoes under uncertainty,based on stochastic mixed 0-1 programming

This paper proposes a dual-response forwarding approach for renting air containers and simultaneously determining how cargoes are distributed into the containers under uncertain information. Containers have to be booked in advance to obtain a discount rental rate from airlines, as urgent requirement or cancellation of containers on the day of shipping will incur a heavy penalty. We firstly formulate a mixed 0-1 integer model to determine the booking types and quantities of containers for the deterministic problem under accurate information. We then formulate a stochastic mixed 0-1 model to structure a dual-response forwarding system for the uncertain problem where accurate information is not available when booking. The first-stage response is to determine the booking types and quantities of containers. The second-stage response is to prepare for different scenarios that might occur on the day of shipping, including the types and quantities of containers required or returned for each scenario, and also the corresponding cargo loading plan. Computational results show that the stochastic model can provide a cost-efficient, flexible and responsive cargo forwarding system.     

Revenue Models and Policies for the Car Rental Industry

In this paper, we consider the application of revenue management techniques in the context of the car rental industry. In particular, the paper presents a dynamic programming formulation for the problem of assigning cars of several categories to different segments of customers, with rental requests arising dynamically and randomly with time. Customers make a rental request for a given type of car, for a given number of days at a given pickup time. The rental firm can satisfy the demand for a given product with either the product requested or with a car of at most one category superior to that initially required, in this case an “upgrade” can take place. The one-way rental scenario, which allows the possibility of the rental starting and ending at different locations, is also addressed. In the framework considered, the logistic operator has to decide whether to accept or reject a rental request. Since the proposed dynamic programming formulations are impractical due to the curse of dimensionality, linear programming approximations are used to derive revenue management decision policies for the operator. Indeed, primal and dual acceptance policies are developed (i.e. booking limits, bid prices) and their effectiveness is assessed on the basis of an extensive computational phase.     

考虑存在取消预约情形的门诊预约能力分配策略

在现实的门诊预约问题中,已经预约的患者在接收医疗服务之前,有可能取消先前的预约,这会对医院的收益造成负面影响,如何在考虑患者存在取消预约的情形下,设计合理有效的能力分配策略来保证医院的收益,是一个值得研究的问题.本文针对具有提前预约和当天预约的门诊预约能力分配问题,在考虑提前预约患者可能存在取消预约行为的情形下,提出了一种提前预约患者和当天预约患者的最优能力分配策略。文中首先以医院的期望收益最大作为决策目标,建立了存在取消预约患者的医疗预约问题的马尔科夫过程模型,并给出了该模型的相关性质;基于所建立模型的特征,证明了对于任意的提前预约时段,存在提前预约患者的最佳数量,进而给出了提前预约患者和当天预约患者的最优能力分配策略以及确定该策略的精确算法;最后,通过数值试验说明了本文所提出的能力分配策略的适用性和有效性。     

Risk minimising strategies for revenue management problems with target values

Consider a risk-averse decision maker in the setting of a single-leg dynamic revenue management problem with revenue controlled by limiting capacity for a fixed set of prices. Instead of focussing on maximising the expected revenue, the decision maker has the main objective of minimising the risk of failing to achieve a given target revenue. Interpreting the revenue management problem in the framework of finite Markov decision processes, we augment the state space of the risk-neutral problem definition and change the objective function to the probability of failing a certain specified target revenue. This enables us to obtain a dynamic programming solution that generates the policy minimising the risk of not attaining this target revenue. We compare this solution with recently proposed risk-sensitive policies in a numerical study and discuss advantages and limitations.     

Dynamic cruise ship revenue management

Recently, it has been recognized that revenue management of cruise ships is different from that of airlines or hotels. Among the main differences is the presence of multiple capacity constraints in cruise ships, i.e., the number of cabins in different categories and the number of lifeboat seats, versus a single constraint in airlines and hotels (i.e., number of seats or rooms). We develop a discrete-time dynamic capacity control model for a cruise ship characterized by multiple constraints on cabin and lifeboat capacities. Customers (families) arrive sequentially according to a stochastic process and request one cabin of a certain category and one or more lifeboat seats. The cruise ship revenue manager decides which requests to accept based on the remaining cabin and lifeboat capacities at the time of an arrival as well as the type of the arrival. We show that the opportunity cost of accepting a customer is not always monotone in the reservation levels or time. This non-monotone behavior implies that “conventional” booking limits or critical time periods capacity control policies are not optimal. We provide analysis and insights justifying the non-monotone behavior in our cruise ship context. In the absence of monotonicity, and with the optimal solution requiring heavy storage for “large” (industry-size) problems, we develop several heuristics and thoroughly test their performance, via simulation, against the optimal solution, well-crafted upper bounds, and a first-come first-served lower bound. Our heuristics are based on rolling-up the multi-dimensional state space into one or two dimensions and solving the resulting dynamic program (DP). This is a strength of our approach since our DP-based heuristics are easy to understand, solve and analyze. We find that single-dimensional heuristics based on decoupling the cabins and lifeboat problems perform quite well in most cases.     

A Lagrangian relaxation approach for network inventory control of stochastic revenue management with perishable commodities

Airline seat inventory control is the allocation of seats in the same cabin to different fare classes such that the total revenue is maximized. Seat allocation can be modelled as dynamic stochastic programs, which are computationally intractable in network settings. Deterministic and probabilistic mathematical programming models are therefore used to approximate dynamic stochastic programs. The probabilistic model, which is the focus of this paper, has a nonlinear objective function, which makes the solution of large-scale practical instances with off-the-shelf solvers prohibitively time consuming. In this paper, we propose a Lagrangian relaxation (LR) method for solving the probabilistic model by exploring the fact that LR problems are decomposable. We show that the solutions of the LR problems admit a simple analytical expression which can be resolved directly. Both the booking limit policy and the bid-price policy can be implemented using this method. Numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Modelling of containerized air cargo forwarding problems under uncertainty

This paper examines air container renting and cargo loading problems experienced by freight forwarding companies. Containers have to be booked in advance, in order to obtain discounted rental rates from airlines; renting or returning containers on the day of shipping will incur a heavy penalty. We first propose a mixed-integer model for the certain problem, in which shipment information is known with certainty, when booking. We then present a two-stage recourse model to handle the uncertainty problem, in which accurate shipment information cannot be obtained when booking, and all cargoes have to be shipped without delay. The first-stage decision is made at the booking stage, to book specific numbers of different types of containers. The second-stage decision is made on the day of shipping, depending on the extent to which the uncertainty has been realized. The decisions include number of additional containers of different types that are required to be rented, or the number of containers to be returned, under the scenario that might occur on the day of shipping. We then extend the recourse model into a robust model for dealing with the situation in which cargoes are allowed to be shipped later. The robust model provides a quantitative method to measure the trade-off between risk and cost. A series of experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the robust model in dealing with risk and uncertainty.     

基于需求分类和乘客升级购买行为的航空公司收益管理模型

研究了基于乘客分类的航空客运库存控制与动态定价策略.模型中,航空公司以提供折扣票的方式将乘客分为两类,并针对购买折扣票的乘客存在升级购买行为,通过动态的控制折扣票的销售和对机票实施动态定价来最大化自身的期望收益.应用动态规划建立了相应的收益管理模型,讨论了最优定价应满足的关系式,并得到了接受或拒绝乘客购买折扣票的阈值.最后,通过算例分析了升级购买概率对阈值、机票的价格及期望收益的影响.     

Improved bid prices for choice-based network revenue management

One of the latest developments in network revenue management (RM) is the incorporation of customer purchase behavior via discrete choice models. Many authors presented control policies for the booking process that are expressed in terms of which combination of products to offer at a given point in time and given resource inventories. However, in many implemented RM systems—most notably in the hotel industry—bid price control is being used, and this entails the problem that the recommended combination of products as identified by these policies might not be representable through bid price control. If demand were independent from available product alternatives, an optimal choice of bid prices is to use the marginal value of capacity for each resource in the network. But under dependent demand, this is not necessarily the case. In fact, it seems that these bid prices are typically not restrictive enough and result in buy-down effects.We propose (1) a simple and fast heuristic that iteratively improves on an initial guess for the bid price vector; this first guess could be, for example, dynamic estimates of the marginal value of capacity. Moreover, (2) we demonstrate that using these dynamic marginal capacity values directly as bid prices can lead to significant revenue loss as compared to using our heuristic to improve them. Finally, (3) we investigate numerically how much revenue performance is lost due to the confinement to product combinations that can be represented by a bid price.The heuristic is not restricted to a particular choice model and can be combined with any method that provides us with estimates of the marginal values of capacity. In our numerical experiments, we test the heuristic on some popular networks examples taken from peer literature. We use a multinomial logit choice model which allows customers from different segments to have products in common that they consider to purchase. In most problem instances, our heuristic policy results in significant revenue gains over some currently available alternatives at low computational cost.     

Optimal seat allocation for two-flight problems with a flexible demand segment

In this paper, we study a two-flight model where there are two flights between two cities in a day (e.g., one departs at 9:00 am and another at 11:00 am) and booking requests in each fare class arrive according to a random process. There are three types of booking requests: the first and second types are respectively for the first and the second flight only; whereas the third type is flexible and willing to take either flight. Upon receiving a booking request, the airline has to decide whether to accept it, and in case a third type is accepted, which flight to accommodate it. This paper uncovers the structure of optimal booking policies through four monotone switching curves. We also present an extension of the basic model to multiple-flight case. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the derivation and the dynamics of the optimal booking policies.