高浓度多链体系链动力学的Monte Carlo模拟——键长涨落模型和空穴扩散算法

本文在Larson的“键长涨落模型”的基础上提出了模拟高浓度多链体系的新算法。本算法具有如下特征:(1)除通常的微松弛模式外,还直接引入了链的Reptation运动;(2)提出了空穴扩散算法使体系随时间演化。由于本算法的这些新特征,克服了前人的算法不能运用于两维体系以及高浓度多链体系的缺点,同时也大大缩短了计算耗时。应用本文的算法,在44×44的元胞中模拟了链长为21,浓度为0.9545的体系的动力学行为。所得结果与Rouse理论的预言相符合。     

Monte Carlo方法计算多层薄膜中X射线发射强度

基于作者发展的电子散射模型,多层介质中电子散射理论、X射线强度、吸收和荧光计算公式,用Monte Carlo方法计算了多层薄膜中X射线发射强度比值。在不同加速电压下,对Si衬底上Au,Cu多层膜及Cr,Ni多层膜计算的强度比与EPMA实验结果广泛一致。本工作为最终解决多层薄膜X射线定量显微分析的难题奠定了理论基础。     

多变量非线性贝叶斯动态模型的参数估计

本文讨论多变量非线性贝叶斯动态模型参数估计 ,将 Monte Carlo最优法用于极大似然函数 ,得到未知参数和状态变量的估计     

多层簿膜厚度XQMA测定及Monte Carlo计算方法

本文提出了应用X射线显微分析实验及Monte Carlo模拟计算电子散射、X射线激发来确定多层薄膜样品每一层厚度的方法.在几种加速电压下,对不同组成、不同厚度的多层膜进行了测定,所得结果与核背散法测定值一致.相对误差小于10％.文中给出了计算程序流程图.     

混合系数线性模型的参数估计

在连续测量数据情况下,本文给出了关于固定系数d和随机系数"的线性模型以及模型参数的估计,并讨论了参数估计的有关性质。     

求解线性二层规划问题的多表旋转算法

多表旋转算法是一种基于旋转算法来求解线性二层规划问题的方法,通过表格组合还可以求解线性多层规划、以及线性一主多从有关联的stackelberg-nash均衡等问题,求解的思想是使用旋转算法,在多个主体间通过约束传递达到均衡。通过算例显示该方法可以迅速地算出局部最优解,如果问题的诱导域是连通的,还可以计算出全局最优解。     

线性模型中参数估计的相对效率

本文对线性模型中的最小二乘估计（LSE）与BLUE给出了一种新的相对效率（4），并研究了新的相对效率（4）与其它两种相对效率（2）与（3）的关系．最后在广义G－M模型下还给出了新的相对效率的下界．     

Monte Carlo EM加速算法

EM算法是近年来常用的求后验众数的估计的一种数据增广算法, 但由于求出其E步中积分的显示表达式有时很困难, 甚至不可能, 限制了其应用的广泛性. 而Monte Carlo EM算法很好地解决了这个问题, 将EM算法中E步的积分用Monte Carlo模拟来有效实现, 使其适用性大大增强. 但无论是EM算法, 还是Monte Carlo EM算法, 其收敛速度都是线性的, 被缺损信息的倒数所控制, 当缺损数据的比例很高时, 收敛速度就非常缓慢. 而Newton-Raphson算法在后验众数的附近具有二次收敛速率. 本文提出Monte Carlo EM加速算法, 将Monte Carlo EM算法与Newton-Raphson算法结合, 既使得EM算法中的E步用Monte Carlo模拟得以实现, 又证明了该算法在后验众数附近具有二次收敛速度. 从而使其保留了Monte Carlo EM算法的优点, 并改进了Monte Carlo EM算法的收敛速度. 本文通过数值例子, 将Monte Carlo EM加速算法的结果与EM算法、Monte Carlo EM算法的结果进行比较, 进一步说明了Monte Carlo EM加速算法的优良性.     

不完全数据下线性回归模型的参数估计

在数据收集过程中,由于各种原因可能造成数据不完整的情况,并将严重影响数据挖掘的质量和结果的稳健性.本文基于EM算法,在SPSS软件的环境下,有效解决了一元线性模型下删失数据带来的参数估计问题,并将此方法实证推广到多元线性回归的模型中.     

奇异线性模型参数估计的相对效率

提出了奇异线性模型中参数β的最佳线性无偏估计(BLUE)相对于最小二乘估计(LSE)的一种新的相对效率,并给出了该相对效率的下界,最后讨论了该相对效率与广义相关系数的关系.     

用蒙特卡罗方法求取广义线性混合模型之最大似然估计:应用于求取乳癌死亡率之小区域估计

本文使用蒙特卡罗方法, 求得广义线性混合模型之最大似然估计, 并提供用来评估统计参数之收敛和精确度之实用方法\bd 仿真研究显示无偏之固定效应参数估计, 而方差分量估计之误差则相近于前人结果\bd 应用举例为使用泊松分布求取乳癌死亡率之小区域估计.     

Dynamically Rescaled Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian Hierarchical Models

Dynamically rescaled Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is introduced as a computationally fast and easily implemented method for performing full Bayesian analysis in hierarchical statistical models. The method relies on introducing a modified parameterization so that the reparameterized target distribution has close to constant scaling properties, and thus is easily sampled using standard (Euclidian metric) Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. Provided that the parameterizations of the conditional distributions specifying the hierarchical model are “constant information parameterizations” (CIPs), the relation between the modified- and original parameterization is bijective, explicitly computed, and admit exploitation of sparsity in the numerical linear algebra involved. CIPs for a large catalogue of statistical models are presented, and from the catalogue, it is clear that many CIPs are currently routinely used in statistical computing. A relation between the proposed methodology and a class of explicitly integrated Riemann manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods is discussed. The methodology is illustrated on several example models, including a model for inflation rates with multiple levels of nonlinearly dependent latent variables. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

有重复观测时变系数线性结构关系EV模型的参数估计

利用重复观测数据和加权方法给出了有重复观测时变系数一维线性结构关系EV模型中的参数估计,证明了估计的弱相合性和强相合性．     

求解线性模型稳健参数估计的整数编码遗传算法

线性模型回归系数的一些稳健估计如LMS、LQS、LTS、LTA的应用越来越广泛,然而它们的精确计算依赖于NP难题,在遇到高维大规模数据集时不可能在较短时间内得到精确解.为尽快得到较高精度的近似解,提出了求解线性模型的稳健参数估计的整数编码遗传算法,通过计算机模拟试验验证了算法可以更快地找出全局最优解.     

Applications of Hybrid Monte Carlo to Bayesian Generalized Linear Models: Quasicomplete Separation and Neural Networks

Abstract

The “leapfrog” hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm is a simple and effective MCMC method for fitting Bayesian generalized linear models with canonical link. The algorithm leads to large trajectories over the posterior and a rapidly mixing Markov chain, having superior performance over conventional methods in difficult problems like logistic regression with quasicomplete separation. This method offers a very attractive solution to this common problem, providing a method for identifying datasets that are quasicomplete separated, and for identifying the covariates that are at the root of the problem. The method is also quite successful in fitting generalized linear models in which the link function is extended to include a feedforward neural network. With a large number of hidden units, however, or when the dataset becomes large, the computations required in calculating the gradient in each trajectory can become very demanding. In this case, it is best to mix the algorithm with multivariate random walk Metropolis—Hastings. However, this entails very little additional programming work.     

Geometric Ergodicity of Metropolis-Hastings Algorithms for Conditional Simulation in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Conditional simulation is useful in connection with inference and prediction for a generalized linear mixed model. We consider random walk Metropolis and Langevin-Hastings algorithms for simulating the random effects given the observed data, when the joint distribution of the unobserved random effects is multivariate Gaussian. In particular we study the desirable property of geometric ergodicity, which ensures the validity of central limit theorems for Monte Carlo estimates.     

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In this paper, we consider the estimation problemfor partially linear models with additive measurement errors in thenonparametric part. Two kinds of estimators are proposed. The first oneis an integral moment-based estimator with deconvolution kernel techniques,associated with the strong consistency for the estimator. Another oneis a simulation-based estimator to avoid the integrals involved in theintegral moment-based estimator. Simulation studies are conducted toexamine the performance of the proposed estimators.     

Penalized Estimation in Large-Scale Generalized Linear Array Models

Large-scale generalized linear array models (GLAMs) can be challenging to fit. Computation and storage of its tensor product design matrix can be impossible due to time and memory constraints, and previously considered design matrix free algorithms do not scale well with the dimension of the parameter vector. A new design matrix free algorithm is proposed for computing the penalized maximum likelihood estimate for GLAMs, which, in particular, handles nondifferentiable penalty functions. The proposed algorithm is implemented and available via the R package glamlasso. It combines several ideas—previously considered separately—to obtain sparse estimates while at the same time efficiently exploiting the GLAM structure. In this article, the convergence of the algorithm is treated and the performance of its implementation is investigated and compared to that of glmnet on simulated as well as real data. It is shown that the computation time for glamlasso scales favorably with the size of the problem when compared to glmnet. Supplementary materials, in the form of R code, data and visualizations of results, are available online.     

Joint Monitoring of Several Types of Shocks in Normal Dynamic Linear Models: A Bayesian Decision Theoretic Approach

In this article we consider the sequential monitoring process in normal dynamic linear models as a Bayesian sequential decision problem. We use this approach to build a general procedure that jointly analyzes the existence of outliers, level changes, variance changes, and the development of local correlations. In addition, we study the frequentist performance of this procedure and compare it with the monitoring algorithm proposed in an earlier article.     

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In this paper an efficient estimation methodology for the partially linear models with random effects is proposed. For this, we use the generalized least square estimate (GLSE) and the B-splines methods to estimate the unknowns, and employ the penalized least square method to obtain the estimators of the random effects item. Further, we also consider the estimation for the variance components. Compared with the existing methods, our proposed methodology performs well. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained. A simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of our proposed methodology.