基于GRA-CS-BP算法的期货价格预测

针对在采用BP神经网络进行期货价格预测时,存在的模型结构复杂,易陷入局部极小值,模型无法收敛问题.考虑从网络结构和网络参数两个方面对BP网络模型进行优化,由此提出基于GRA-CS-BP算法的期货价格预测方法.首先用灰色关联度分析法进行输入变量筛选,找出和预测价格关联度大的重要因素作为网络输入,简化网络模型整体结构.然后采用布谷鸟算法对网络权阈值参数进行优化,将经过选择优化后建立的BP神经网络模型用于期货价格预测.仿真结果表明,新模型不仅具有更高的预测精度,同时其运行的稳定性也要好于单纯BP神经网络模型,为期货价格预测提出了一种新的方法.     

基于粒子群优化的神经网络预测模型

BP学习算法多采用梯度下降法调整权值,针对其易陷入局部极小、收敛速度慢和易引起振荡的固有缺陷,提出了一种改进粒子群神经网络算法.其基本思想是:首先采用改进粒子群优化算法反复优化BP神经网络模型的权值参数组合,再用BP算法对得到的网络参数进一步精确优化,最后用得到精确的最优参数组合进行预测.实验结果表明,该算法在股指预测中的预测性能明显提高.     

GM(1,1)的改进及其在经济发展预测中的应用

针对传统GM(1,1)在模型参数绝对值较大时参数求解精度较差的问题,采用免疫进化算法对其参数求解方法进行改进,然后将改进后的GM(1,1)应用到四川省的经济发展指标预测,并和采用传统GM(1,1)所得的预测结果进行了对照.结果表明,采用免疫进化算法对GM(1,1)参数求解方法的改进是有效的,改进后的GM(1,1)对四川省的经济发展指标预测结果比传统GM(1,1)的预测结果有明显改进。     

基于动态BP网络误差修正的广义预测控制

针对建模误差对非线性系统预测控制鲁棒性的影响 ,提出了一种基于动态 BP网络的广义预测控制算法 .该算法运用动态 BP网络对模型预测误差进行在线补偿 ,以提高预测精度 .仿真结果证明了本文提出的广义预测控制算法对于非线性系统是有效的     

人工神经网络在SARS疫情分析与预测中的应用

讨论人工神经网络在 SARS疫情分析与预测中的应用 .采用三层结构的反向传播网络 ( Backpropagation network,简称 BP网络 ) ,对 SARS在中国的传播与流行趋势及控制策略建立了网络模型 .并利用实际数据拟合参数 ,针对北京、山西的疫情进行了计算仿真 .结果表明 ,该网络模型算法收敛速度较快 ,预测精度很高     

基于改进CS优化BP神经网络的降水量预测模型

针对传统BP神经网络易陷入局部极值和连接权值难以确定的问题,提出了一种基于融合PSO(Particle Swarm Optimization)和CS(Cuckoo Search)的混合算法优化设计BP神经网络(PCS-BP)的预测模型.该优化方法主要利用混合算法优秀的全局搜索能力和收敛速度设计优化BP神经网络的连接权值和网络结构,解决了BP神经网络由于参数随机取值引起的网络震荡和过拟合的问题,提高了预测模型的准确性.结合具体实例,分别采用BP神经网络、CS-BP模型和PCS-BP模型对汉中地区的月降水量进行预测,实验结果表明,PCS-BP的平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.3966,均方根误差(RMSE)为2.3793,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为0.46%,均优于其他模型,具有较好的预测能力.     

引入技术指标的BP网络在股市预测中的应用

本文使用股市分析中常用的一些技术指标构造BP网络的输入样本向量,在此基础上,对沪市股指的涨跌进行了预测.数值实验结果表明,该方法能够提高网络预测的正确率.使用跳跃学习及三种变学习率、批方式的学习算法对BP网络进行了训练,节省了预测时间.运用“在线预测”的方法对预测过程进行了跟踪.针对预测样本在预测性能及预测结果方面存在的差异,引入预测样本中心距离比的概念对其进行简单的划分,得到一些富有启发性的结果.     

基于FOA-RBF神经网络的外贸出口预测

应用果蝇优化算法对径向基神经网络扩展参数的优化方法进行研究,给出了一种以标准误差计算公式为味道判定函数,以此确定最优的径向基函数的扩展参数值的方法,并建立了相应的预测模型.应用该预测模型对黑龙江省外贸出口额进行预测,结果表明:预测模型的预测精度优于径向基神经网络,从而证明了方法的有效性.     

基于二次优化BP神经网络的期货价格预测

针对BP算法存在的不足,结合神经网络、遗传算法和主成分分析的优点,提出基于二次优化BP神经网络的期货价格预测算法.初次优化采用主成分分析法对网络结构进行优化,第二次优化采用自适应遗传算法对网络参数进行优化,将经过二次优化后建立的BP神经网络模型用于期货价格预测.经仿真检验,用新方法建立的模型对期货价格进行预测,在预测的精度和速度方面都优于单纯BP神经网络模型.     

基于改进PSO-BP神经网络的贮存可靠性预测

贮存可靠性是军事储备质量监测的重要环节,科学准确地预测贮存可靠度是现代化军事评估的必然要求。针对历史贮存数据,建立可靠度与年限的贮存可靠性预测模型,采用进化策略改进粒子群算法(PSO)优化BP神经网络进行贮存可靠性预测。通过数据扩充提高样本质量和数量,应用改进后的PSO算法优化BP神经网络的初始权值和阈值,提高网络的泛化能力。PSO算法较好的全局搜索能力与BP网络很强的局部搜索能力相结合,能够避免早熟现象,提高算法的收敛速度及预测精度。实验结果表明,改进的PSO-BP网络模型比PSO-BP和BP神经网络获得更好的预测性能。     

基于均匀设计抽样遗传算法求解背包问题

众所周知,遗传算法的运行机理及特点是具有定向制导的随机搜索技术,其定向制导的原则是:导向以高适应度模式为祖先的"家族"方向.以此结论为基础,利用均匀设计抽样的理论和方法,对遗传算法中的交叉操作进行了重新设计,给出了一个新的GA算法,称之为均匀设计抽样遗传算法.最后将均匀设计抽样遗传算法应用于求解背包问题,并与简单遗传算...     

Electric load forecasting by support vector model

Accurately electric load forecasting has become the most important management goal, however, electric load often presents nonlinear data patterns. Therefore, a rigid forecasting approach with strong general nonlinear mapping capabilities is essential. Support vector regression (SVR) applies the structural risk minimization principle to minimize an upper bound of the generalization errors, rather than minimizing the training errors which are used by ANNs. The purpose of this paper is to present a SVR model with immune algorithm (IA) to forecast the electric loads, IA is applied to the parameter determine of SVR model. The empirical results indicate that the SVR model with IA (SVRIA) results in better forecasting performance than the other methods, namely SVMG, regression model, and ANN model.     

System identification of a pick-and-place mechanism driven by a permanent magnet synchronous motor

The main objective of this study is to utilize two dynamic models: a mathematical model and a simple model, to identify a pick-and-place mechanism (PPM) which is driven by a permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM). In this paper, Hamilton’s principle is employed to derive the mathematical model, which is a nonlinear differential equation, while Newton’s second law is utilized to derive the simple linear model. In system identification, we adopt the real-coded genetic algorithm (RGA) to find not only the parameters of the PPM, but also the PMSM simultaneously. From the identification simulations and experimental results, it is demonstrated that the identification results of the mathematical model present the better matching with the experimental results of the system.     

适用于多峰函数优化问题的通用演化算法

本文主要研究了非线性规划中多峰问题的优化求解.通过引入精英库、灭绝再生等,提出了一个适用于求解多峰问题的通用演化算法;并且新算法在四个复杂的多峰函数和一个三十维的整数规划问题上进行了试验,得到了数值结果.     

Implicit Simulation Methods for Stochastic Chemical Kinetics

In biochemical systems some of the chemical species are present with only small numbers of molecules. In this situation discrete and stochasticsimulation approaches are more relevant than continuous and deterministic ones. The fundamental Gillespie’s stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) accounts for every reaction event, which occurs with a probability determined by the configuration of the system. This approach requires a considerable computational effort for models with many reaction channels and chemical species.In order to improve efficiency, tau-leaping methods represent multiple firings of each reaction during a simulation step by Poisson random variables. For stiff systems the mean of this variable is treated implicitly in order to ensure numerical stability. This paper develops fully implicit tau-leaping-like algorithms that treat implicitly both the mean and the variance of the Poisson variables. The construction is based on adapting weakly convergent discretizations of stochastic differential equations to stochastic chemical kinetic systems. Theoretical analyses of accuracy and stability of the new methods are performed on a standard test problem. Numerical results demonstrate the performance of the proposed tau-leaping methods.     

A fixed-point algorithm for blind source separation with nonlinear autocorrelation

This paper addresses blind source separation (BSS) problem when source signals have the temporal structure with nonlinear autocorrelation. Using the temporal characteristics of sources, we develop an objective function based on the nonlinear autocorrelation of sources. Maximizing the objective function, we propose a fixed-point source separation algorithm. Furthermore, we give some mathematical properties of the algorithm. Computer simulations for sources with square temporal autocorrelation and the real-world applications in the analysis of the magnetoencephalographic recordings (MEG) illustrate the efficiency of the proposed approach. Thus, the presented BSS algorithm, which is based on the nonlinear measure of temporal autocorrelation, provides a novel statistical property to perform BSS.     

An MPEC formulation and its cutting constraint algorithm for continuous network design problem with multi-user classes

Continuous network design problem (CNDP) is to determine the set of link capacity expansions and the corresponding equilibrium flows for which the measures of performance index for the network is optimal. Conventionally, CNDP assumed users to be homogeneous, that is, all travelers on the same link of the network are identical insofar as congestion effect and they have the same value of time (VOT). In fact, it does not accord with the real situation that all have the same VOT. So, multiple user classes with different VOT should be considered. This paper examines the CNDP with different VOT for multiple user classes, which is generally expressed as a mathematical programming with equilibrium constraint (MPEC). Then, the cut constraint algorithm (CCA) is presented to solve the problem. The numerical experiments on the examples from the literature are illustrated to demonstrate that our model and algorithm are feasible.     

Optimization of passive optical network planning

Network planning problem typically involves large capital investment and can be formulated as an optimization problem where the objective is minimization of the first installed cost. We consider a passive optical network (PON) planning problem based on a residential area in Adana (Turkey). There are four possible primary node locations, twenty possible secondary node locations, and twenty-eight customers. We use genetic algorithm and mathematical modeling techniques to optimize the position of the primary and secondary nodes, their split levels and assigning customers to secondary nodes and secondary nodes to primary nodes under some constraints such as system’s attenuations and technical characteristics of all the equipment.     

项目网络中考虑支配与扩散关系的组合决策

单纯侧重项目自身属性而不考虑项目关联性以及由项目衍生而来的技术、经验/信息扩散对项目组合决策时的影响,易导致决策偏差,低估具有潜在技术先导性项目的价值。对此,引用复杂网络理论,以项目关联性的视角,将项目间支配和扩散关系分别抽象为有向加权网络,运用K-shell分解方法构建项目组合网络中基于支配关系的项目影响力模型以及技术、经验/信息在项目间扩散传播的模型。然后,基于PageRank算法,综合考虑项目间支配与扩散关系,建立了项目优先级排序决策模型。最后,通过算例分析说明了该模型与算法的可行性与有效性,为企业项目组合决策提供了有益的参考。     

Heuristic approaches for solving transit vehicle scheduling problem with route and fueling time constraints

Electric bus scheduling problem can be defined as vehicle scheduling problem with route and fueling time constraints (VSPRFTC). Every vehicle’s travel miles (route time) after charging is limited, thus the vehicle must be recharged after taking several trips and the minimal charging time (fueling time) must be satisfied. A multiple ant colony algorithm (ACA) was presented to solve VSPRFTC based on ACA used to solve traveling salesman problem (TSP), a new metaheuristic approach inspired by the foraging behavior of real colonies of ants. The VSPRFTC considered in this paper minimizes a multiple, hierarchical objective function: the first objective is to minimize the number of tours (or vehicles) and the second is to minimize the total deadhead time. New improvement of ACA as well as detailed operating steps was provided on the basis of former algorithm. Then in order to settle contradiction between accelerating convergence and avoiding prematurity or stagnation, improvement on route construction rule and Pheromone updating rule was adopted. A group feasible trip sets (blocks) had been produced after the process of applying ACA. In dealing with the fueling time constraint a bipartite graphic model and its optimization algorithm are developed for trip set connecting in a hub and spoke network system to minimize the number of vehicle required. The maximum matching of the bipartite graph is obtained by calculating the maximum inflow with the Ford–Fulkerson algorithm. At last, an example was analyzed to demonstrate the correctness of the application of this algorithm. It proved to be more efficient and robust in solving this problem.