Evaluating Individual Market Power in Electricity Markets via Agent-Based Simulation

We use agent-based simulation in a coordination game to analyse the possibility of market power abuse in a competitive electricity market. The context of this was a real application to the England and Wales electricity market as part of a Competition Commission Inquiry into whether two particular generators could profitably influence wholesale prices. The research contributions of this paper are both in the areas of market power and market design policy issues for electricity markets, and in the methodological use of large industry-wide evolutionary simulation models.     

Forecasting the Effects of Television Programming upon Electricity Loads

In Britain, the demand for electricity has been observed to rise sharply at the end of popular television programmes. This presents a serious forecasting problem for the Central Electricity Generating Board in the economic scheduling of standby reserve generation. This report provides some insights into the determinants of the problem and a multivariate forecasting aid through regression analyses on television audience measurements.     

Complementary Modelling Approaches for Analysing Several Effects of Privatization on Electricity Investment

Through the impacts of higher required rates of return, debt, taxation changes and a new competitive structure for the industry, investment in electricity generating capacity has taken a shift to less capital-intensive technologies in the UK. This paper reports on the use of large-scale, long-term capacity planning models, of both an optimization and system dynamics nature, to reflect these separate factors, investigate their sensitivities and to generate future scenarios for the investment in the industry. Some new policy implications for the regulation of the industry become apparent, but the main focus of the paper is to develop some of the methodological changes required by the planning models to suit the privatized context.     

煤矿企业经营管理效益的评价与分析

本文应用回归分析和线性规划理论，提出一套评价煤矿企业经营管理效益的综合指标及数学模型，为企业科学地进行经济预测、制定计划、改善管理、提高效益提供了数量化依据。     

电力市场中合同电量与竞争电量交易比例的研究

在单边开放的区域电力市场中,合理的合同电量与竞争电量交易比例是保证电力市场有效运行的一个重要环节。竞争电量所占的比例将主要取决于当前发电公司的市场行为。首先使用BP神经网络对电力需求弹性系数进行了预测,然后以长期电力市场均衡为目标函数,考虑贵州电网发电机组的可用容量与负荷预测的误差,以及贵州输电线路的可靠性诸因素,推导出合同电量与竞争电量交易比例,经过与南方区域电力市场目前运营规则规定的交易比例比较,该比例是合理的,可以规避电力市场价格波动等带来的风险。     

可再生能源价格政策在寡头竞争市场中的比较

在考虑可再生能源发电间歇性和电力企业两阶段决策过程的前提下,建立了度电补贴和配额制政策下的电力市场寡头垄断竞争模型并进行了分析。以以色列电力市场的数据进行数值实验,分析了电力企业数量、补贴价格、可再生能源电力配额、投资费用等关键因素对发电容量投资的影响。考虑到政策的福利效应,比较了度电补贴和配额制政策下电力价格、消费者剩余和社会福利的差异。     

Evaluating the effect of sub-optimality

Comparison of a sub-optimal solution with an optimal, possibly time-consuming to find, solution has crucial importance in Operations Management. In this note, we highlight the potential underestimation of the effect of sub-optimality in recent studies and propose to use an alternative measure for comparing the quality of optimal solutions with sub-optimal ones. We give examples from the realm of Inventory Pooling and the “Price of Anarchy” in supply chains.     

An Oligopolistic Investment Model of the Finnish Electricity Market

The investment problem faced by producers in deregulated electricity markets contains high uncertainties about the future. It can also be seen as a game, as only a small number of large players act in the market. A dynamic stochastic oligopoly model to describe the production and investment in such a situation is developed and applied to the Finnish electricity market. The demand growth rate is modeled as a stochastic variable. The strategies of the firms consist of investments and production levels for base and peak load periods. The firms have nuclear, hydro and thermal capacities, but are only allowed to invest in new thermal capacity. Using a so-called sample-path adapted open-loop information structure, the model contributes to the understanding of the dynamics of production, investment and market power in a medium time horizon. The solution method uses recent developments in variational inequality and mixed complementarity problem formulations.     

Operational Research in the Central Electricity Generating Board

The growth and developments in the organization of the Electricity Supply Industry are outlined and the way in which operational research has been fitted into the organization as a number of separate, co-operating teams is described.Some of the main problems of the Generating Board are explained and the contributions that have been made and that might be made by operational research are discussed.A picture is presented of the widening appreciation of the utility of operational research which, beginning as a service used almost wholly on operational problems of generation, is now being used by an increasing number of departments.     

关于电力报价系统的电力分配与结算问题

本文建立了电能交易的平衡方程,在电能交易必须满足供求平衡的条件下,证明了市场出清价格的存在性和唯一性,讨论了市场出清价和收益函数关于报价函数的连续性,并利用Schauder不动点定理证明了各电能交易商的收益存在Nash平衡点,指出按照市场出清价格与各发电商进行结算可以实现Pareto最优.     

多层次Fuzzy综合评判在肿瘤疫苗免疫生物治疗评价中的应用

应用多层次 Fuzzy综合评判方法评判肿瘤疫苗在抗肿瘤免疫生物治疗中的效果 ,此法客观、可靠 ,为医务人员综合评估肿瘤疫苗提供了一个良好的数学模型 .     

Estimation of Electricity Market Distribution Functions

In an electricity pool market the market distribution function gives the probability that a generator offering a certain quantity of power at a certain price will not be dispatched all of this quantity by the pool. It represents the uncertainty in a pool market associated with the offers of the other agents as well as demand. We present a general Bayesian update scheme for market distribution functions. To illustrate the approach a particular form of this procedure is applied to real data obtained from a New Zealand electricity generator.     

Evaluating the Frechet derivative of the matrix exponential

LetM _n denote the space ofn×n matrices. GivenX, ZM _n define

Evaluating the interest aspect of cash management

An important aspect of cash management is how to deal with temporary liquidity positions. Clearly a treasurer wants to maximise interest gain in case of a liquidity surplus and to minimise interest cost whenever there is a shortage of liquidity. This is done by means of transactions in the money market, deposits and loans. A model is presented that yields a strategy which optimises the interest cost for a certain period in the past, taking into account the dynamic character of interest expectations.     

Evaluating the performance of Brazilian university hospitals

In order to demonstrate how DEA modeling can be helpful to aid decision making relative to the Brazilian Teaching Hospital Policy by means of hospital performance assessment, we develop a case study with 30 general hospitals linked to Brazilian Federal Universities. We consider data on medical care (Medical Model—MM), teaching and research (Teaching-Research Model—TRM) and use the software IDEAL (Interactive Data Envelopment Analysis Laboratory) as a tool for the units’ efficiency evaluation. IDEAL, developed in Brazil, is unique in providing a 3-D frontiers visualization, assisting in exploratory analysis and allowing a better understanding of the DEA modeling (envelopment and multiplier). Both models are input-oriented and each hospital is categorized according to its relative efficiency in the MM and TRM. In this phase, it is very important to discuss with the decision-makers the results and patterns of the DEA models. Finally, the modelling indicates the necessary changes for the inefficient units and generates recommendations for teaching ratios and public financing.     

Evaluating the financial performance of bank branches

We evaluate the financial performance of most of the branch offices of a large European savings bank for a recent accounting period. We employ a complementary pair of nonparametric techniques to evaluate their financial performance, in terms of their ability to conserve on the expenses they incur in building their customer bases and providing customer services. We find variation in the ability of branch offices to perform this task, and agreement on the identity of the laggard branches. We then employ parametric techniques to determine that the list of indicators on which their financial performance is evaluated can be reduced without statistically significant loss of information to bank management. Both findings suggest ways in which the bank can increase the profitability of its branch network. A previous version of this paper was presented at CORE, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium, where we received many helpful comments from the audience. We are grateful to three referees for their helpful comments as well.