有等待席位限制的基于终端区系统运行效能的枢纽机场最优跑道设计算法

根据枢纽机场实际终端区系统瓶颈和航空公司及旅客的关键需求,利用随机服务系统理论,分析了有等待席位限制的枢纽机场终端区的空域结构、飞行、管制状况,建立其运行模型,能根据相关参数计算航班滞留时间、队长和空闲跑道数等有用指标;再进一步应用系统运行效能理论,成功地建立了枢纽机场的最佳跑道设计算法,算法对枢纽机场跑道建设规划有较大的理论意义和参考应用价值,实践中已经得到应用.     

枢纽机场终端区PBN模式下最优跑道数需求

针对我国枢纽机场日起降高峰小时的航班拥堵常态化问题,从系统整体运行效能的角度,针对枢纽机场终端区跑道系统容量瓶颈,①分析性能基导航(Perormance-Based Navigation,PBN)模式下枢纽机场终端区的空域结构、飞行、管制程序,根据随机服务系统理论,建立其运行模型;②考虑PBN模式下航班、旅客的延误滞留函数和机场单位时间服务支出函数;③再应用排队论和系统运行效能理论,建立枢纽机场最佳跑道数目需求算法,能根据相关参数计算航班滞留时间和队长等指标;④最后引用某枢纽机场相关数据,演算结果符合实际抽样调查统计资料.     

PBN下多跑道机场航班起降运行排队方式研究

分析多跑道机场终端区的空域结构、飞行、管制状况,利用随机服务系统理论建立运行模型,对航班起降运行排队方式进行讨论.阐明两种排队方式①联合协作(相互支援);②分列独立(互不支援)的运行特点,并建立数学模型,能根据相关参数得到相应排队方式下航班滞留时间、队长和空闲跑道数等有用指标.在相同条件下,定量比较两种运行方式的航班队列服务质量和系统工作特性参数.结果表明:①比②能够支持更多的航班起降请求并提供更高的服务质量,提供利用现有条件扩充跑道容量和缓解航班延误的方法,能满足航空公司和旅客的需求.有较大的理论意义和参考应用价值,实践中得到应用,值得推广.     

基于改进SWO算法的机场新增卫星厅对中转旅客换乘紧张度影响

由于旅行业的快速发展,某航空公司在某机场为了缓解原有航站楼T登机口不足的压力增设卫星厅S,但中转旅客换乘的时间可能延长,因此优化分配登机口、分析中转旅客的换乘紧张程度,为航空公司航班规划的调整提供参考依据是十分必要的.将综合考虑分配到固定登机口的航班转场记录数、换乘总体紧张度和登机口使用数量,首先建立了一个多目标整数模型作为理论数学模型;然后,将其转化为更易求解的多层规划模型;最后,利用加入禁忌搜索的改进SWO算法求解,并将传统SWO算法作为比较.结果表明:可最少使用65个登机口分配最多253个转场飞机,此时中转旅客的总体紧张度从新增卫星厅前的98.11增加至358.17,是原来的3.65倍,因此开通卫星厅S后中转旅客换乘失败的风险远高于未开通时.     

应用遗传算法求解航班恢复问题

航班调度系统易受天气等因素的影响,导致航班延误甚至取消,给航空公司和旅客带来巨大损失.针对某机场由于天气原因需要临时关闭这一问题,,综合考虑航班延误,飞机置换和旅客的行程信息,以旅客的总体延误时间最短为目标函数,建立了旅客滞留航班恢复模型.根据面向对象的编程思想设计了航班调度算法并耦合遗传算法对模型进行求解.基于较大规模的航班和旅客数据对模型和算法进行了验证,得到了合理的航班恢复方案.     

基于Multi-Logit模型的多机场系统航线补贴研究

随着我国民航业快速发展,机场密度不断提高,在一定地域范围内存在多个机场的现象.然而多机场系统内机场间竞争激烈,其中航线补贴已经成为国内大部分机场激励航空公司增加运力、开拓更多航线的重要手段.对于机场来说,如何科学的补贴很值得研究.从乘客出行选择角度着眼,利用Multinomial Logit模型考察了航线补贴对机场及航空公司的市场份额、机场自身利润及社会总收益的影响,从而给出补贴建议.研究表明:1)多机场系统内,一家航空公司的航线补贴增加时,这家航空公司及所在机场的市场份额增加,其余机场及航空公司市场份额均有所下降.2)多机场系统内大型机场补贴新航班航线时,对市场占有率高的航空公司补贴增加,航空公司市场份额、机场在这条航线上总利润以及社会总收益都随之增加.3)多机场系统内两家邻近中小机场,根据两家机场单位航线补贴方案不同,航空公司市场份额、机场在这条航线上总利润以及社会总收益也相应不同.     

面向靠桥率及道口冲突率的航班-机位指派问题优化模型及其启发式算法研究

在给定航班时刻表条件下,对于进出港航班的机位分配,除了必须满足航班、飞机和机位之间的技术性要求之外,还要考虑尽量提高整个机场的机位利用率,且方便旅客出入港及时、安全和便捷.文章以飞机机型、所属航空公司、客运/货运航班、国内/国际航班等匹配条件为约束条件,以航班-机位分配完成率、靠桥率、道口非冲突率为目标,建立了一个航班...     

基于多元线性回归分析的民用运输机场旅客吞吐量预测

修建第二机场的必要性以及何时开始修建,取决于该地区的机场旅客吞吐量何时达到饱和.从机场旅客吞吐量的可能影响因素出发,分析各影响因素与旅客吞吐量之间的相关性,并以西南地区某枢纽运输机场为例,建立机场旅客吞吐量的多元线性回归预测模型,预测该机场未来年的旅客吞吐量,并利用时间序列法对所得的预测值进行验证.结果表明,该模型能够较准确的预测出机场未来年的旅客吞吐量,为机场扩建或新建第二机场的必要性提供科学依据.     

航空公司部分多属的枢纽机场定价研究

平台经济理论的运用是机场管理研究的新视角.以机场为平台商,航空公司和乘客为平台用户,在平台经济的分析框架下,以Armstrong价格模型为基础,并吸收Hotelling模型关于平台竞争及客户异质性的构建思想,针对竞争性的枢纽机场的定价策略进行研究.结果表明:机场的定价策略与航空公司和乘客的网络外部性参数和需求的价格弹性、乘客的预期交易次数、机场服务成本有关;倾斜的定价策略和航空收入与非航空收入的交叉补贴并不适用于模型假设下的机场.     

机场放行能力约束条件下的航班延误波及分析

航班延误影响机场和航空公司的正常运行,同时给旅客出行带来不便,因此,对航班延误的预测分析具有重要的现实意义.在机场放行能力约束条件下,分析航班延误波及情况,对延误时长进行定量预测.以航班历史数据为学习样本,计算在前序航班延误的影响下,后续航班在不同延误等级的初始条件概率,并按照航班优先级以及预测时段机场的放行能力约束,对初始条件概率进行修正,从而对航班延误时长进行短期预测.最后通过实例分析,结果表明考虑机场放行能力约束,提升了航班延误预测的准确度,验证了方法的有效性.     

基于灰色关联分析与PLS-LSSVM的航材备件需求预测模型

航材备件是保障航空装备日常训练和作战正常使用的重要影响因素,针对部分航材备件样本数据量少,影响因素多且复杂多变,预测结果与装备系统完好性要求偏差较大等问题.建立基于灰色关联分析(GRA)与偏最小二乘(PLS)及最小二乘向量机(LSSVM)相结合的航材备件预测模型,采集某无人机航材备件数据,通过对统计数据进行灰色关联分析...     

中国航空市场占有率的预测与分析

近年来我国航空公司经历了大规模的重组,大大提高了行业的集中度.中国国际航空股份有限公司、中国东方航空股份有限公司、中国南方航空股份有限公司,这三大航空公司几乎垄断了中国的航空市场,而三航之外的中小型航空公司旅客市场占有率较低.因此把三航之外近40家航空公司看做一整体.根据各大航空公司在2008年-2010年的旅客市场占有率数据建立二次规划模型,运用Lingo软件对转移概率矩阵进行估计,预测几大航空公司的旅客市场占有率,并探讨一些初步的改进.通过短期预测,发现未来三大航空公司仍然垄断中国市场.     

航线联盟下航空货运网络枢纽点选址问题研究

本文研究航空联盟下航空货运网络的枢纽点选址问题(HLP),基于枢纽点的数量及位置随机与容量的限制。首先引入航线联盟选择概率函数,确定不同航段上的航线自营运输或外包运输的概率;其次根据选址中心法则,以网络总成本最小化为目标,建立枢纽点选址模型;再次采用改进的免疫混沌遗传算法求解模型;最后,以顺丰航空公司案例进行实例分析。结果表明:1)本文改进的算法较免疫混沌遗传算法并与免疫遗传算法及CPLEX结果对比,发现本文设计的算法有较强的收敛性和计算速度,且计算结果与CPLEX求解器求解结果相差不大;2)枢纽点数量不确定时,枢纽点的位置多集中在东部城市;3)航空公司选择联盟环境可以大大降低运营成本,航空公司为提高自身利润,应考虑加入联盟,从而降低自身成本。     

Airline pricing and fare product differentiation: A new theoretical framework

A basic premise in the development of yield management has been that the differentiated fare products offered by airlines are targeted to distinct segments of the total demand for air travel in a market, each of which compete for space on a fixed capacity aircraft. Such representations of differential pricing assume that the airline can segment its demand perfectly and without cost to consumers, and further, ignore the dependence of the demand for a given fare product on the price levels and characteristics of the other available fare products. In this paper, we introduce a new ‘generalised cost’ model of fare product differentiation that incorporates the relationships between available airline fare products as well as the cost incurred by consumers of accepting more restrictions. We extend the model to incorporate the diversion of passengers to lower-priced fare products as a result of their ability to meet the additional restrictions imposed by airlines, and then demonstrate how seat inventory control can be used to induce diverting passengers to ‘sell up’ to higher-priced fare products by applying booking limits. An example of how the model can be used for joint fare product price level optimisation is presented, along with a numerical example that illustrates the extent to which the conventional model of price discrimination over-estimates passenger demand and, in turn, total airline revenues.     

基于动态列生成算法的飞机排班问题研究

飞机排班是航空运输生产计划的重要环节,对航空公司的正常运营和整体效益有着决定性影响;飞机排班通常构建为大规模整数规划问题,是航空运筹学研究的重要课题,构建的模型属于严重退化的NP-Hard问题.在考虑对多种机型的飞机进行排班时,大大增加了问题的复杂性.针对航空公司实际情况,建立多种机型的飞机排班模型;为实现模型的有效求解,提出了基于约束编程的动态列生成算法;即用约束编程快速求解航班连线(航班串)并计算航班串简约成本,动态选择列集并与限制主问题进行迭代.最后,利用国内某航空公司干线航班网络实际数据验证模型和算法的有效性.     

航空客票销售渠道的博弈研究

为研究航空公司和机票代理人之间的博弈过程,在分析航空公司和代理人在不同策略下各自的得益基础上,建立了静态博弈模型,并运用演化博弈理论对航空公司的机票直销策略选择与代理人策略选择的互动机制进行了分析.博弈分析结果显示,航空公司和代理商在以下情况时存在进化稳定策略:当代理销售成本高于直销成本时,航空公司会加大直销力度;而航空公司的直销策略比较强势时,当代理商抵制策略的概率会大大增加;航空公司缓和推进直销时,代理会也会采取缓和策略.     

An interactive solution approach for a bi-objective semi-desirable location problem

In this study, we consider a semi-desirable facility location problem in a continuous planar region considering the interaction between the facility and the existing demand points. A facility can be defined as semi-desirable if it has both undesirable and desirable effects to the people living in the vicinity. Our aim is to maximize the weighted distance of the facility from the closest demand point as well as to minimize the service cost of the facility. The distance between the facility and the demand points is measured with the rectilinear metric. For the solution of the problem, a three-phase interactive geometrical branch and bound algorithm is suggested to find the most preferred efficient solution. In the first two phases, we aim to eliminate the parts of the feasible region the inefficiency of which can be proved. The third phase has been suggested for an interactive search in the remaining regions with the involvement of a decision maker (DM). In the third phase, the DM is given the opportunity to use either an exact or an approximate procedure to carry out the search. The exact procedure is based on the reference point approach and guarantees to find an efficient point as the most preferred solution. On the other hand, in the approximate procedure, a hybrid methodology is used to increase the efficiency of the reference point approach. The approximate procedure can be used when the DM prefers to see locally efficient solutions so as to save computation time. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method through example problems.     

Modeling and Solving an Airline Schedule Generation Problem

Since opening a new flight connection or closing an existing flight has a great impact on the revenues of an airline, the generation of the flight schedule is one of the fundamental problems in airline planning processes.In this paper we concentrate on a special case of the problem which arises at charter companies. In contrast to airlines operating on regular schedules, the market for charter airlines is well-known and the schedule is allowed to change completely from period to period. Thus, precise adjustments to the demands of the market have a great potential for minimizing operating costs.We present a capacitated network design model and propose a combined branch-and-cut approach to solve this airline schedule generation problem. To tighten the linear relaxation bound, we add cutting planes which adjust the number of aircraft and the spill of passengers to the demand on each itinerary.For real-world problems from a large European charter airline we obtain solutions within a very few percent of optimality with running times in the order of minutes on a customary personal computer for most of the data sets.     

Static target search path planning optimization with heterogeneous agents

Disruptions in airline operations can result in infeasibilities in aircraft and passenger schedules. Airlines typically recover aircraft schedules and disruptions in passenger itineraries sequentially. However, passengers are severely affected by disruptions and recovery decisions. In this paper, we present a mathematical formulation for the integrated aircraft and passenger recovery problem that considers aircraft and passenger related costs simultaneously. Using the superimposition of aircraft and passenger itinerary networks, passengers are explicitly modeled in order to use realistic passenger related costs. In addition to the common routing recovery actions, we integrate several passenger recovery actions and cruise speed control in our solution approach. Cruise speed control is a very beneficial action for mitigating delays. On the other hand, it adds complexity to the problem due to the nonlinearity in fuel cost function. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model. We show that the problem can be reformulated as conic quadratic mixed integer programming (CQMIP) problem which can be solved with commercial optimization software such as IBM ILOG CPLEX. Our computational experiments have shown that we could handle several simultaneous disruptions optimally on a four-hub network of a major U.S. airline within less than a minute on the average. We conclude that proposed approach is able to find optimal tradeoff between operating and passenger-related costs in real time.     

网约车新政下平台和乘客的Stackelberg博弈模型及策略研究

近年来,滴滴和优步等网约车平台的出现给城市居民出行带来了新的选择,然而随着新政的实施以及垄断巨头的酝酿诞生,网约车平台是否会降补贴提车价成为消费者最为关心的问题。文章构建网约车平台和乘客之间的Stackelberg博弈模型,分析了网约车平台的补贴和抽成策略对乘客是否选择网约车出行的决策行为以及网约车市场均衡的影响。理论研究和仿真结果表明：网约车平台合理的补贴力度和抽成力度可以有效规避行政监管成本增加和乘客资源流失的风险,提高双方的收益,实现社会的帕累托最优。