基于BG分布的资产收益率分布拟合与尾部风险测度——以上海黄金市场为例

本文以上海黄金市场为例,在GARCH模型下,系统性比较了基于正态分布、Logistic分布、HS分布、Laplace分布、t2分布和Cauchy分布的对称和非对称共12种BG分布在收益率分布拟合以及VaR和ES测度中的效果。研究结果表明,BG分布在收益率分布建模与尾部风险测度上的表现与原分布类型有关。当原分布为正态分布时,对称和非对称BG分布的效果都较差。当原分布为Logistic分布、HS分布、Laplace分布、t2分布和Cauchy分布时,对称和非对称BG分布的效果都较好,其中非对称BG分布效果在尾部分布拟合上优势更大。在所有分布中,基于t2分布和Cauchy分布的非对称BG分布表现最优。     

椭球等高矩阵分布关于非奇异矩阵变换的不变性

本文首先将矩阵F分布和矩阵t分布的定义推广到左球分布类,其密度函数与产生它们的左球分布或球对称分布的密度均无关.然后讨论了椭球等高分布关于非奇异矩阵变换的不变性问题,包括矩阵Beta分布、逆矩阵Beta分布、矩阵Dirichlet分布、逆矩阵Dirichlet分布、矩阵F分布和矩阵t等分布.在非奇异变换下,这些分布的密度不但与产生它们的左球分布的密度函数无关,而且与非奇异变换矩阵无关.     

一个组合分布模型及其参数估计

本文根据极值分布理论,提出了一个由原始分布和尾分布组成的组合分布模型,研究了组合分布模型中原始分布和尾分布的确定方法,建立了组合分布模型参数估计的加权最优化模型,实例计算说明,组合分布较好地反映了风险变量极值事件的风险。     

位置参数分布族中Fiducial分布与后验分布的关系

本文考虑本质位置参数分布族中,参数的Fiducial分布与后验分布的等同问题.首先讨论了如何给出Fiducial分布,分析结果表明以分布函数形式给出Fiducial分布要比密度函数形式合理,同时,证明了所给的Fiducial分布具有频率性质.然后,研究在参数受到单侧限制时,Fiducial分布与后验分布等同的问题,给出的充要条件是分布族为指数分布族,此时,先验分布是一个广义先验分布,它不能被Lebesgue测度控制.最后,证明了在参数限制在一个有限区间内时,Fiducial分布与任何先验(包括广义先验分布)下的后验分布不等同.     

位置参数分布族中Fiducial分布与后验分布的关系

本文考虑本质位置参数分布族中,参数的Fiducial分布与后验分布的等同问题．首先讨论了如何给出Fiducial分布,分析结果表明以分布函数形式给出Fiducial分布要比密度函数形式合理,同时,证明了所给的Fiducial分布具有频率性质．然后,研究在参数受到单侧限制时,Fiducial分布与后验分布等同的问题,给出的充要条件是分布族为指数分布族,此时,先验分布是一个广义先验分布,它不能被Lebesgue测度控制．最后,证明了在参数限制在一个有限区间内时,Fiducial分布与任何先验(包括广义先验分布)下的后验分布不等同．     

关于重尾分布间的控制关系及其应用

得到了能控制一切轻尾分布及一切轻度重尾分布的分布的等价条件,得到了能控制一切轻尾分布的分布的等价条件,讨论了分布与其相应的均衡分布之间的控制关系,并给出了上述控制关系在和的分布的封闭性等方面的应用.     

投影寻踪型Cramér-von Mises-Smirrnov统计量(英文)

为了检验一个总体分布是否服从所给定的分布Ｆ（ｘ），Ｃｒａｍéｒ－ｖｏｎＭｉｓｅｓ－Ｓｍｉｒｎｏｖ统计量是一种常用的重要工具．对于一维分布，计算表明确切分布很快趋于极限分布．当样本量大于３时，确切分布与极限分布之差就很小，当总体分布是连续分布时该统计量的极限分布与总体分布无关．本文讨论总体分布为高维分布时用投影寻踪的方法建立Ｃｒａｍéｒ－ｖｏｎＭｉｓｅｓ－Ｓｍｉｒｎｏｖ统计量，对此统计量尾部概率上界及极限分布，包括当样本很大，维数很高时的极限性质，自助法是否能逼近极限分布，用Γ分布或者Γ分布混合逼近确切分布是否能行等问题作了探讨，并提出了一些未解决的问题．     

关于伽马分布及相关分布性质的一点研究

主要研究伽马分布的性质,并通过对伽马分布可加性的研究.得到由指数分布通过伽马分布构造卡方分布和均匀分布的方法,通过本文可以加深对伽马分布和其它常见连续性分布关系的认识.     

若干矩阵Г分布的相关分布

本文研究了与矩阵Г分布相关的若干分布的密度函数，利用矩阵Г分布的特征函数和它的Bartlett分解等方法，获得了与矩阵Г分布相关的几个分布的密度函数解析表达式，它们包括Г分布随机矩阵的子矩阵、行列式、迹和特征根的分布密度，进一步还得到了相关系数矩阵的分布密度函数形式．     

广义矩阵分布下多元回归模型的贝叶斯推断

考虑具有奇异矩阵椭球等高分布误差的多元线性回归模型的贝叶斯统计推断,在非信息先验下得到了系数矩阵关于Hausdorff测度的后验边缘分布和未来观察值的预测分布,并得到了一类特殊奇异矩阵椭球等高分布下误差协方差矩阵的后验边缘分布.对于具有奇异矩阵正态分布误差的多元线性回归模型,在广义正态-逆Wishart共轭先验下得到了类似的后验边缘分布和预测分布结果.在上述两种先验分布下,回归系数矩阵的后验边缘分布和预测分布是双奇异矩阵t分布,这种分布具有关于Hausdorff测度的精确密度.结果表明,在非信息先验下,回归系数矩阵的后验边缘分布和未来观察值的预测分布在奇异矩阵椭球等高分布类中具有稳健性.     

On JB-Rings

A ring R is a QB-ring provided that aR bR=R with a,b∈R implies that there exists a y∈R such that a by∈R_q~(-1).It is said that a ring R is a JB-ring provided that R/J(R)is a QB-ring,where J(R)is the Jacobson radical of R.In this paper,various necessary and sufficient conditions,under which a ring is a JB-ring,are established.It is proved that JB-rings can be characterized by pseudo-similarity.Furthermore,the author proves that R is a JB-ring iff so is R/J(R)~2.     

关于凸子集和（绝对）收缩核

讨论了线性度量空间中凸子集在什么情况下为该空间的收缩核，以及在什么情况下为绝对收缩核。     

Optimal pricing and quantity of products with two offerings

This paper analyzes the decision of a firm offering two versions of a product, a deluxe and a regular. While both products satisfy the same market, the deluxe version is sold at a high price relative to its cost and is aimed at the high end of the demand curve. The regular version is sold at a low price relative to its cost and is targeted to customers at the low end of the demand curve. This two-offering strategy is especially popular with book publishers where a paperback book is introduced some time after the hardbound version is introduced. The time between the introduction of the two versions of the product is accompanied by a downward shift in the demand curve due to customers losing interest in the product or satisfying their demand from a secondary used market. We solve a profit maximization model for a firm using a two-offering strategy. The model is solved for linear and exponential deterioration in demand, which is assumed to be deterministic. Also, a model with linear deterioration in demand, which is assumed to be stochastic, is solved. The results indicate that substantial improvements in profit can be obtained by using the two-offering strategy. Numerical sensitivity analysis and examples are used to illustrate the results.     

Jacobson-Chevalley稠密定理的一个推广

我们在[1]中证明了,一个半环(hemiring)关于它的Jacobson关系根的商同构于完全本原半环的亚直和。这使我们有兴趣对这个特殊的半环类——完全本原半环的结构作进一步的讨论。本文的主要结果是:一个半环是完全本原的当且仅当它是一个半模上的亚稠密自同态半环。这个定理给出了完全本原半环的结构,推广了Jacobson—Chevalley稠密定理。     

On catastrophe and cavitation for spherical cavity

This work deals with catastrophe of a spherical cavity and cavitation of a spherical cavity for Hooke material with 1/2 Poisson's ratio. A nonlinear problem, which is the Cauchy traction problem, is solved analytically. The governing equations are written on the deformed region or on the present configuration. And the conditions are described on moving boundary. A closed form solution is found. Furthermore, a bifurcation solution in closed form is given from the trivial homogeneous solution of a solid sphere. The results indicate that there is a tangent bifurcation on the displacement-load curve for a sphere with a cavity. On the tangent bifurcation point, the cavity grows up suddenly, which is a kind of catastrophe. And there is a pitchfork bifurcation on the displacement-load curve for a solid sphere. On the pitchfork bifurcation point, there is a cavitation in the solid sphere.     

Mathematical models of innovation diffusion with stage structure

Mathematical models with stage structures are proposed to describe the process of awareness, evaluation and decision-making. First, a system of ordinary differential equations is presented that incorporates the awareness stage and the decision-making stage. If the adoption rate is bilinear and imitations are dominant, we find a threshold above which innovation diffusion is successful. Further, if the adoption rate has a higher nonlinearity, it is shown that there exist bistable equilibria and a region such that an innovation diffusion is successful inside and is unsuccessful outside. Secondly, a model with a time delay is proposed that includes an evaluation stage of a product. It is proved that the system exhibits stability switches. The bifurcation direction of equilibria is also discussed.     

马氏环境中可数马氏链的Poisson极限率

研究了马氏环境中的可数马氏链,主要证明了过程于小柱集上的回返次数是渐近地服从Poisson分布。为此,引入熵函数h,首先给出了马氏环境中马氏链的Shannon-Mc Millan-Breiman定理,还给出了一个非马氏过程Posson逼近的例子。当环境过程退化为一常数序列时,便得到可数马氏链的Poisson极限定理。这是有限马氏链Pitskel相应结果的拓广。     

U-标算子的结构分析

类似与标型谱算子,U-标算子是否拟仿射相似于自伴算子是一“公开问题”．尽管对具纯离散谱的U-标算子答案是肯定的,但一般情况下并不成立．本文继续探讨这一问题,证明了U-标算子在一强范数拓扑意义下是Hermite算子,或者说U-标算子拟仿射相似于Hermite算子,并给出U-标算子是标型谱算子的充要条件．     

The Toroidal Embedding Arising From an Irrational Fan

A toroidal embedding is defined which does not assume the fan consists of rational cones. For a rational fan, the toroidal embedding is the usual toric variety. If the fan is not rational, the toroidal embedding is in general a quasi-compact noetherian locally ringed space which is not a scheme. A divisor theory exists and a class group is defined. A second construction is also carried out which mimics the gluing construction of the usual toric variety, but which makes no reference to a lattice. The resulting scheme is separated but infinite dimensional. The Picard group is described in terms of the group of real valued locally linear support functions on the fan and the Brauer group is shown to be trivial. Many examples are given throughout the paper; in particular, it is shown that there is associated to a real hyperplane arrangement of full rank a toroidal embedding.     

Dynamic frictionless contact with adhesion

A model for the dynamic, adhesive, frictionless contact between a viscoelastic body and a deformable foundation is described. The adhesion process is modeled by a bonding field on the contact surface. The contact is described by a modified normal compliance condition. The tangential shear due to the bonding field is included. The problem is formulated as a coupled system of a variational equality for the displacements and a differential equation for the bonding field. The existence of a unique weak solution for the problem is established, together with a partial regularity result. The existence proof proceeds by construction of an appropriate mapping which is shown to be a contraction on a Hilbert space.