美国旅华需求的影响因素：模型构建与检验

关于美国旅华的研究多为描述性的定性研究,定量研究较少,且对美国旅华需求的研究鲜见。因此,本文首先提出影响美国旅华需求的因素假设,然后通过Johansen协整分析,构建出相应协整模型,同时验证了假设。进一步通过Granger因果关系检验,表明影响因素的假设是有效的。从而得出结论:美国旅华需求对在华生活相对价格变化、人民币兑美元汇率变化都缺乏弹性,而对美国总人口变化及美国人均收入变化率的变化非常敏感.     

CAPACITY AND PRICE OF NONRENEWABLE RESOURCE DEPOSITS

This paper develops a model to determine the planned rate of production from a nonrenewable resource deposit and applies the model to the U.S. copper industry to estimate changes in aggregate planned copper production as a function of copper price expectations. Standard investment theory is applied in the model to examine the choice of the planned rate of extraction from limited volume resource deposits. A setting is analyzed in which the total production volume from any site is fixed by the size of the resource deposit at that site. Within this setting, the planned rate of resource extraction is a fully endogenous solution of the model. Properties of the model are investigated to determine changes in the planned rate of production caused by variation in operating cost, investment cost and output price parameters. The planned rate of production from any deposit is found to increase at a decreasing rate, given incremental increases in the output price, ceteris paribus. The finding is illustrated with data describing mined and yet-to-be mined copper deposits in the United States. A close match is observed between the calculated production rate for mined copper deposits and the mine capacity (rate of production) chosen by the owners of those deposits, given plausible assumptions about mine owner price expectations. The planned rate of production is aggregated across all deposits and plotted as a function of output price. An aggregate medium run copper supply curve is obtained, indicating the elasticity of planned production to changes in the expected long run output price of copper. This empirical example suggests that doubling the output price from $1 to $2 per pound copper, would triple aggregate planned copper production in the United States.     

THE COSTATE VARIABLE IN NATURAL RESOURCE OPTIMAL CONTROL PROBLEMS

ABSTRACT. In this paper we discuss the role of the costate variable (shadow value) for the resource stock in both nonrenewable and renewable resource problems. We separate the information in this variable into a scarcity and a cost effect. The scarcity effect is the portion of the shadow value that is due just to the scarcity of the resource relative to its demand, while the cost effect is a measure of the impact of the marginal unit upon future extraction costs. It is shown that in the nonrenewable resource, mining, problem both can exist simultaneously, but in the renewable resource, fisheries, model the two effects are mutually exclusive. In our analysis of the fisheries model we develop an expression for the time path of the marginal unit of fish stock. We do this using the theorem of Continuous Dependence on Initial Conditions. This result is then used to generate the conclusion that g(x) is the biological own rate of interest, where g(x) is the growth function for the resource stock, x.     

The outer continental shelf oil and gas supply model of the energy information administration

In evaluating future United States oil and gas supplies, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) maintains separate modeling activities for the three major producing regions: the onshore lower 48 states, Alaska, and the outer continental shelf (OCS) of the lower 48 states. The choice of different modeling approaches is conditioned by the unique economic, legal, and physical environments constraining the production activities in each of these regions.This paper describes the EIA's Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Supply Model (OCSM), a new model for evaluating petroleum supply from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. OCSM is a stochastic simulation model representing the economic evaluation, exploration, and development of individual oil and gas fields. This detailed approach is supported by a unique resource base—detailed physical information on individual and as yet undiscovered structures. These data were derived from United States Geological Survey pre-lease sale tract evaluations.The model design parallels the basic activities of the offshore industry and, thus, represents the significant influence of high development costs, alternative technologies, and economies of increasing field size on OCS oil and gas supply. The effects of alternative economic scenarios, leasing rules, and development constraints on future OCS supply may be evaluated.     

THE COSTATE VARIABLE IN A STOCHASTIC RENEWABLE RESOURCE MODEL

ABSTRACT. In this paper we discuss the costate variable in a stochastic optimal control model of a renewable natural resource, which we call a fishery. The role of the costate variable in deterministic control models has been discussed extensively in the literature. See for example Lyon [1999], Clark [1990, pp. 102 107] and Arrow and Kurz [1970, pp. 35 37]; however, there is little discussion of this variable for stochastic models, even though thecostate variable has similar roles in the two models. In both models the costate variableis a shadow value of the associated state variable, and as such has the role of rationingthe use of the state variable. In addition, as has been shown in Lyon [1999], in natural resource problems the costate variable can be partitioned into a scarcity effect and a cost effect. We show that this same partitioning can be done in the stochastic renewable resource problem. We discuss and contrast the similarities and differences in these concepts for deterministic and stochastic models. In addition, we present a numerical example to help solidify the results.     

我国外商直接投资与经济增长的动态关系:基于面板协整研究

利用面板协整方法和面板误差修正模型对1986～2008年问我国28省市外商直接投资与经济增长关系进行实证分析.结果表明,从长期来看经济增长的调整系数为正,表明外商直接投资与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,中国的经济增长会促进外商直接投资增加;但FDI与经济增长的这种长期均衡关系在地区间存在显著差异.     

Technological change,population dynamics,and natural resource depletion

In this paper, we integrate fertility and educational choices into a scale-invariant model of directed technological change with non-renewable natural resources, in order to reveal the interaction between population dynamics, technological change, and natural resource depletion. In line with empirical regularities, skill-biased technological change induces a decline in population growth and a transitory increase in the depletion rate of natural resources. In the long-run, the depletion rate also declines in the skill intensity. A decline in population growth is harmful for long-run productivity growth, if R&D is subject to diminishing technological opportunities. The effectiveness of economic policies aimed at sustained economic growth thus hinges on its impact on long-run population growth given the sign of intertemporal spillovers in R&D with respect to existing technological knowledge. We demonstrate that an increase in relative research productivities or an education subsidy enhances long-run growth, if R&D is subject to diminishing technological opportunities, while an increase in the teacher–student ratio is preferable in terms of positive intertemporal knowledge spillovers.     

经济增长、金融发展、对外贸易与能源消费动态关系研究

基于我国1978-2013年的统计数据,运用ARDL边限协整检验技术和VECM格兰杰因果检验方法,对经济增长、金融发展、对外贸易与能源消费之间的关系进行了系统地研究.实证结果表明,经济增长、金融发展、对外贸易与能源消费之间存在长期协整关系.经济增长和能源消费不满足EKC假设,两者之间呈现正"U"型变化,目前我国经济位于曲线右边,即能源消费随着经济的增长而增加.金融发展对能源消费存在显著的正向效应,对外贸易的发展也会增加能源消费.格兰杰因果检验表明存在从经济增长到能源消费、金融发展和对外贸易的单向因果关系.金融发展和能源消费之间存在长期双向因果关系,同样的,这种关系也被发现在对外贸易和能源消费、金融发展和对外贸易之间.     

集对分析在我国经济增长模糊规则提取中的应用

针对粗糙集和模糊聚类方法提取我国经济增长模糊规则算法复杂的问题,把集对分析用于我国31个省市经济增长模糊规则提取。结果显示,不仅算法简明,而且能同时提取宏观层次上的经济增长规则—固定资产投资对GDP的拉动效果要大于人力资源对GDP的拉动效果,而且还从微观层次上揭示出各省的经济增长规则,为我国十二五经济发展规划的实施提供决策参考。     

福建省能源消费、劳动力与经济增长结构突变单位根检验及多变量因果关系分析

尝试运用最新发展的自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)对福建省1978-2009年能源消费、劳动力和经济增长三者的因果关系进行检验和分析.常规单位根检验认为能源消费、劳动力和经济增长是一阶单整,I(1);而Zivot & Andrews(ZA)内生性结构突变单位根检验发现三个序列为带有结构突变的趋势平稳过程.ARDL边界检验和格兰杰因果检验结果表明能源消费、劳动力和经济增长间存在稳定的长期均衡关系,表现为从经济增长、劳动力到能源消费的长期因果关系;而在短期因果关系上,表现为经济增长到能源消费单向因果关系,以及经济增长与劳动力之间的双向因果关系.研究同时对福建省经济增长和能源保护战略提出了政策建议.     

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON LOBLOLLY PINE PLANTATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES

Abstract Few studies have empirically examined climate change impacts on managed forests in the southern United States. In this paper, we use the U.S. Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis Database to fit two growth models across the South and apply the four Hadley III climate scenarios developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report to project future growth and site productivity on loblolly pine plantations. The static growth model provides a direct test of whether a significant climate influence on forest growth can be statistically derived, while the dynamic growth model estimates climate effects through site productivity. Results indicate considerable spatial variation in potential future growth and productivity change on loblolly pine plantations due to climate change in the southern United States, while overall regional effects are projected to be marginal. The pattern of climate change impacts is consistent across the growth models and climate scenarios. These findings have several implications for climate change adaptation policies.     

能源消费与产业发展的协整性与因果关系分析

能源消费与经济增长关系密切,本文利用协整理论,检验了我国能源消费总量与国民生产总值以及三次产业之间的协整性和Granger因果关系,并且建立了向量误差修正模型。研究结果表明,我国能源消费与GDP以及第一产业、第三产业之间存在协整关系,但是能源消费与第二产业之间并不存在长期的均衡关系。并且,GDP和三次产业只是能源消费的单向Granger因果关系,它们之间并不存在双向的Granger因果关系。     

中美石油消费与国际原油价格的协整分析

石油消费与石油市场与国民经济和国家安全息息相关,是学术界研究的的热点领域之一.本文采用协整性和因果关系检验的计量经济学方法,考察了我国石油消费和国际原油价格之间的相互影响,发现两者存在长期协整关系,但只具有单向因果关系.与美国的比较研究表明,我国石油市场化改革取得了显著成效,随着改革的深入,还应该建立充足的商业石油储备,并基于市场调整当前石油定价体制与进口机制,进一步放开油价,采用主动的进口策略,才能根本解决消费与价格存在的脱节问题,实现与国际石油市场更好的接轨,适应日益完善的市场经济需要.     

基于动态因子结构的贝叶斯分位面板协整研究

针对传统面板协整检验在建模过程中易受异常值影响以及其原假设设置的主观选择问题,本文利用动态公共因子刻画面板数据潜在的截面相关结构,提出基于动态因子的截面相关结构的贝叶斯分位面板协整检验,结合各个主要分位数水平下参数的条件后验分布,设计结合卡尔曼滤波的Gibbs抽样算法,进行贝叶斯分位面板协整检验;并进行Monte Carlo仿真实验验证贝叶斯分位面板协整检验的可行性与有效性。同时,采用中国各省金融发展和经济增长的面板数据进行实证研究,结果发现在各主要分位数水平下中国金融发展和经济增长之间具有协整关系。研究结果表明:贝叶斯分位面板协整检验方法避免了传统面板数据协整方法由于原假设设置不同而发生误判的问题,克服了异常值的影响,能够提供全面准确的模型参数估计和协整检验结果。     

Profit-based generation resource planning

This paper presents an optimal generation resource planningmodel based on an expected level of revenue, operation and maintenancecosts, transmission charges, load curtailment costs, and theexpected level of system reliability. The model considers thevolatility of market prices for electricity and fuel, variousoptions for securing investment loans, construction lead time,expected load growth, and transmission congestion costs as majorincentives for adding generating capacity to power systems.The proposed planning algorithm will analyse possible sitesand markets for new generators, various unit types and capacities,operating constraints, planned and forced outages, timing forthe addition of new units, and steps for the decommissioningof old generators. The solution approach is based on the extendedBender decomposition technique. A modified IEEE 30-bus casestudy is presented and discussed to exhibit the effectivenessof the proposed resource planning approach.     

自主创新、技术转移与经济增长的动态均衡研究

运用协整检验、误差修正模型、Granger因果性检验等实证方法,研究了中国在1991-2008年的自主创新、技术转移与经济增长的动态均衡关系。结果表明,三者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;短期均衡中,滞后一期、二期的经济增长自身、自主创新能力、技术转移能力对经济增长的影响不是很显著;长期均衡中,自主创新能力、技术转移能力对经济增长的影响显著。自主创新与经济增长存在互为因果关系,经济增长是技术转移的原因,技术转移与自主创新存在互为因果关系。为此,我国应该采取有效措施,提升自主创新能力和技术转移能力,促进经济增长;同时促进三者间的良性互动。     

Marginal costs of undiscovered natural gas resources in the United States with possible application to world oil and gas resources

Summary The Mineral Resources Institute of the Colorado School of Mines is completing a project sponsored jointly by the Gas Research Institute and the Electric Power Research Institute to assess the cost of development of natural gas resources in the United States. The project has as its objective the development of a method and subsequent calculation of costs which might be anticipated in the discovery and development of the undiscovered natural gas resources of the nation. Costs are expressed in constant dollars and are intended to provide a measure of the relative costs which would be encountered in various, regions and at various depths. The project work was supported by the development of a model for calculation of full marginal costs of resource discovery and development by Operational Economics, Inc. This paper summarizes the data sources, methodology, and results of the analyses performed, as well as some interpretations of those results. Additionally, the paper includes some possible applications of the procedures and the models to the estimation of the costs of development of the oil resources of the United States and of the oil and gas resources of the world.     

广西能源、环境和经济增长的动态关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

利用广西1990-2011年GDP、能源消费和工业废气排放总量的数据,应用基于VAR模型的动态计量分析方法,对广西经济、能源和环境的关系进行实证研究.结果表明:三者之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,能源消耗是经济增长和环境污染的Granger原因,经济增长是能源消耗和环境污染的Granger原因.能源消耗对经济增长的正向影响效应时间较长且较稳定,环境污染初期对经济增长的抑制作用较弱却呈现缓慢增强的趋势;而经济增长对能源消耗和环境污染的影响持续时间较短.经济增长与能源消耗两者之间的相互影响较大,而环境污染受能源消耗变化影响较明显.     

A dynamic theory of the credit union

A topic of recent interest in the retail financial sector has been the growth of credit unions or “pure cooperatives”. Past credit union researchers built mathematical models of credit union operations. These models identified important operating characteristics but were modeled under assumptions of static operating environments. The model presented in this paper departs from the traditional static models and examines dynamic operation for a United States credit union. Its inter-temporal structure clarifies a number of issues—such as optimal equity retention and inter-temporal rate policy—not addressed by earlier studies. Given initial conditions, the model specifies equity retention and inter-temporal deposit and loan rate policies until an equilibrium state is reached.     

首都区域技术市场发展与经济增长关系的动态分析

采用单位根检验、协整分析以及Granger因果检验法对1989～2004年首都区域技术市场发展与经济增长之间的长期关系进行了动态协整分析。结果发现，技术市场发展与经济增长之间呈现一种长期稳定的均衡关系，但是二者之间远未形成一种协调联动的相互促进机制。技术市场在首都区域科技与经济的结合中还没有起到纽带作用。