Object oriented modeling of social networks

The aim of this paper is to explain principles of object oriented modeling in the scope of modeling dynamic social networks. As such, the approach of object oriented modeling is advocated within the field of organizational research that focuses on networks.We provide a brief introduction into the field of social networks and present an overview of existing network models and methods. Subsequently we introduce an elementary problem field in the social sciences in general, and in studies of organizational change and design in particular: the micro-macro link. We argue that the most appropriate way to hadle this problem is the principle of methodological individualism. For social network analysis, to contribute to this theoretical perspective, it should include an individual choice mechanism and become more dynamically oriented. Subsequently, object oriented modeling is advocated as a tool to meet these requirements for social network analysis. We show that characteristics of social systems that are emphasized in the methodological individualistic approach have their direct equivalences in object oriented models. The link between the micro level where actors act, and the macro level where phenomena occur as a consequence and cause of these actions, can be modelled in a straightforward way.     

Destabilization of covert networks

Covert networks are often difficult to reason about, manage and destabilize. In part, this is because they are a complex adaptive system. In addition, this is due to the nature of the data available on these systems. Making these covert networks less adaptive, more predictable, more consistent will make it easier to contain or constrain their activity. But, how can we inhibit adaptation? Herein, covert networks are characterized as dynamic multi-mode multi-plex networks. Dynamic network analysis tools are used to assess their structure and identify effective destabilization strategies that inhibit the adaptivity of these groups.     

On generalized semi-infinite optimization of genetic networks

Since some years, the emerging area of computational biology is looking for its mathematical foundations. Based on modern contributions given to this area, our paper approaches modeling and prediction of gene-expression patterns by optimization theory, with a special emphasis on generalized semi-infinite optimization. Based on experimental data, nonlinear ordinary differential equations are obtained by the optimization of least-squares errors. The genetic process can be investigated by a time-discretization and a utilization of a combinatorial algorithm to detect the stability regions. We represent the dynamical systems by means of matrices which allow biological-medical interpretations, and by genetic or new gene-environment networks. For evaluating these networks we optimize them under constraints imposed. For controlling the connectedness structure of the network, we introduce GSIP into this modern application field which can lead to important services in medicine and biotechnology, including energy production and material science.      

Structural optimization by wavelet transforms and neural networks

An efficient methodology is presented to achieve optimal design of structures for earthquake loading. In this methodology a combination of wavelet transforms, neural networks and evolutionary algorithms are employed. The stochastic nature of the evolutionary algorithms makes the slow convergence. Specially, when earthquake induced loads are taken into account. To reduce the computational burden, a discrete wavelet transform is used by means of which the number of points in the earthquake record is decreased. Then, by using a surrogate model, the dynamic responses of the structures are predicted. In order to investigate the efficiency of the proposed methodology, two structures are designed for optimal weight. The numerical results demonstrate the computational advantages of the proposed hybrid methodology to optimal dynamic design of structures.     

Value iteration and optimization of multiclass queueing networks

This paper considers in parallel the scheduling problem for multiclass queueing networks, and optimization of Markov decision processes. It is shown that the value iteration algorithm may perform poorly when the algorithm is not initialized properly. The most typical case where the initial value function is taken to be zero may be a particularly bad choice. In contrast, if the value iteration algorithm is initialized with a stochastic Lyapunov function, then the following hold: (i) a stochastic Lyapunov function exists for each intermediate policy, and hence each policy is regular (a strong stability condition), (ii) intermediate costs converge to the optimal cost, and (iii) any limiting policy is average cost optimal. It is argued that a natural choice for the initial value function is the value function for the associated deterministic control problem based upon a fluid model, or the approximate solution to Poisson’s equation obtained from the LP of Kumar and Meyn. Numerical studies show that either choice may lead to fast convergence to an optimal policy. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Linking structural equation modeling to Bayesian networks: Decision support for customer retention in virtual communities

Bayesian networks are limited in differentiating between causal and spurious relationships among decision factors. Decision making without differentiating the two relationships cannot be effective. To overcome this limitation of Bayesian networks, this study proposes linking Bayesian networks to structural equation modeling (SEM), which has an advantage in testing causal relationships between factors. The capability of SEM in empirical validation combined with the prediction and diagnosis capabilities of Bayesian modeling facilitates effective decision making from identification of causal relationships to decision support. This study applies the proposed integrated approach to decision support for customer retention in a virtual community. The application results provide insights for practitioners on how to retain their customers. This research benefits Bayesian researchers by providing the application of modeling causal relationships at latent variable level, and helps SEM researchers in extending their models for managerial prediction and diagnosis.     

On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

网络组织治理绩效影响因素的实证研究

本文从网络治理目标、治理结构、治理机制、治理环境四个方面分析网络治理绩效的影响因素,在具有典型网络合作特征的企业展开调查获得第一手资料,运用结构方程模型对网络治理绩效的影响因素进行实证检验。结果表明,成员企业之间的差异性越大、资源互补性越强、文化兼容性越好、关系资本强度越高,治理绩效越好;治理目标、治理环境和治理机制对治理绩效存在一定影响,但对我国企业而言具有其特殊性。     

Derivative-free optimization and neural networks for robust regression

Large outliers break down linear and nonlinear regression models. Robust regression methods allow one to filter out the outliers when building a model. By replacing the traditional least squares criterion with the least trimmed squares (LTS) criterion, in which half of data is treated as potential outliers, one can fit accurate regression models to strongly contaminated data. High-breakdown methods have become very well established in linear regression, but have started being applied for non-linear regression only recently. In this work, we examine the problem of fitting artificial neural networks (ANNs) to contaminated data using LTS criterion. We introduce a penalized LTS criterion which prevents unnecessary removal of valid data. Training of ANNs leads to a challenging non-smooth global optimization problem. We compare the efficiency of several derivative-free optimization methods in solving it, and show that our approach identifies the outliers correctly when ANNs are used for nonlinear regression.     

An application of interactive analysis and computer graphics in stochastic modeling

This paper will describe the application of an interactive queueing network analyzer and an interactive graphics system to the analysis of a multiple processor computer system. The application of these tools greatly increased the productivity of the modelers and resulted in insights which would have otherwise been difficult, if not impossible, to obtain. With this experience as background, we discuss how the increasing availability of computing resources, especially high resolution interactive computer graphics and sophisticated modeling packages, is likely to have a profound influence on the applied stochastic modeler.     

Learning Bayesian networks from datasets joining continuous and discrete variables

The current paper addresses two problems observed in structure learning applications to computational biology.The first one is dealing with mixed data. Most optimization criteria for learning algorithms are applicable to either discrete or continuous data. Mixed datasets are usually handled by discretization of continuous data, which often leads to the loss of information. In order to address this problem, we adapted discrete scoring functions to continuous data. Consequently, the same score is used to both types of variables, and the network structure may be learned from mixed data directly.The second problem is the control of the type I error level. Usually, learning algorithms output a network that is the best according to some optimization criteria, but the reliability of particular relationships represented by this network is unknown. We address this problem by allowing the user to specify the expected error level and adjusting the parameters of the scoring criteria to this level.     

An optimization-based approach for the design of Bayesian networks

Bayesian networks model conditional dependencies among the domain variables, and provide a way to deduce their interrelationships as well as a method for the classification of new instances. One of the most challenging problems in using Bayesian networks, in the absence of a domain expert who can dictate the model, is inducing the structure of the network from a large, multivariate data set. We propose a new methodology for the design of the structure of a Bayesian network based on concepts of graph theory and nonlinear integer optimization techniques.     

The QNET method for two-moment analysis of open queueing networks

Consider an open network of single-server stations, each with a first-in-first-out discipline. The network may be populated by various customer types, each with its own routing and service requirements. Routing may be either deterministic or stochastic, and the interarrival and service time distributions may be arbitrary. In this paper a general method for steady-state performance analysis is described and illustrated. This analytical method, called QNET, uses both first and second moment information, and it is motivated by heavy traffic theory. However, our numerical examples show that QNET compares favorably with W. Whitt's Queueing Network Analyzer (QNA) and with other approximation schemes, even under conditions of light or moderate loading. In the QNET method one first replaces the original queueing network by what we call an approximating Brownian system model, and then one computes the stationary distribution of the Brownian model. The second step amounts to solving a certain highly structured partial differential equation problem; a promising general approach to the numerical solution of that PDE problem is described by Harrison and Dai [8] in a companion paper. Thus far the numerical solution technique has been implemented only for two-station networks, and it is clear that the computational burden will grow rapidly as the number of stations increases. Thus we also describe and investigate a cruder approach to two-moment network analysis, called ΠNET, which is based on a product form approximation, or decomposition approximation, to the stationary distribution of the Brownian system model. In very broad terms, ΠNET is comparable to QNA in its level of sophistication, whereas QNET captures more subtle system interactions. In our numerical examples the performance of ΠNET and QNA is similar; the performance of QNET is generally better, sometimes much better.     

The effect of gossip on social networks

In this article, we develop a simple model for the effect of gossip spread on social network structure. We define gossip as information passed between two individuals A and B about a third individual C which affects the strengths of all three relationships: it strengthens A‐B and weakens both B‐C and A‐C. We find, in both an analytic derivation and model simulations, that if gossip does not spread beyond simple triads, it destroys them but if gossip propagates through large dense clusters, it strengthens them. Additionally, our simulations show that the effect of gossip on network metrics (clustering coefficient, average‐path‐length, and sum‐of‐strengths) varies with network structure and average‐node‐degree. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 16: 39‐47, 2011     

Intra-organizational Networks and Performance: A Review

Intra-organizational network research had its first heyday during the empirical revolution in social sciences before World War II when it discovered the informal group within the formal organization. These studies comment on the classic sociological idea of bureaucracy being the optimal organization. Later relational interest within organizational studies gave way to comparative studies on the quantifiable formal features of organizations. There has been a resurgence in intra-organizational networks studies recently as the conviction grows that they are critical to organizational and individual performance. Along with methodological improvements, the theoretical emphasis has shifted from networks as a constraining force to a conceptualization that sees them as providing opportunities and finally, as social capital. Because of this shift it has become necessary not only to explain the differences between networks but also their outcomes, that is, their performance. It also implies that internal and external networks should no longer be treated separately.Research on differences between intra-organizational networks centers on the influence of the formal organization, organizational demography, technology and environment. Studies on outcomes deal with diffusion and adaptation of innovation; the utilization of human capital; recruitment, absenteeism and turnover; work stress and job satisfaction; equity; power; information efficiency; collective decision making; mobilization for and outcomes of conflicts; social control; profit and survival of firms and individual performance.Of all the difficulties that are associated with intra-organizational network research, problems of access to organizations and incomparability of research findings seem to be the most serious. Nevertheless, future research should concentrate on mechanisms that make networks productive, while taking into account the difficulties of measuring performance within organizations, such as the performance paradox and the halo-effect.     

Structural learning of Bayesian networks by bacterial foraging optimization

Algorithms inspired by swarm intelligence have been used for many optimization problems and their effectiveness has been proven in many fields. We propose a new swarm intelligence algorithm for structural learning of Bayesian networks, BFO-B, based on bacterial foraging optimization. In the BFO-B algorithm, each bacterium corresponds to a candidate solution that represents a Bayesian network structure, and the algorithm operates under three principal mechanisms: chemotaxis, reproduction, and elimination and dispersal. The chemotaxis mechanism uses four operators to randomly and greedily optimize each solution in a bacterial population, then the reproduction mechanism simulates survival of the fittest to exploit superior solutions and speed convergence of the optimization. Finally, an elimination and dispersal mechanism controls the exploration processes and jumps out of a local optima with a certain probability. We tested the individual contributions of four algorithm operators and compared with two state of the art swarm intelligence based algorithms and seven other well-known algorithms on many benchmark networks. The experimental results verify that the proposed BFO-B algorithm is a viable alternative to learn the structures of Bayesian networks, and is also highly competitive compared to state of the art algorithms.     

On the analysis of optimization problems in arc-dependent networks

This paper is concerned with the design and analysis of algorithms for optimization problems in arc-dependent networks. A network is said to be arc-dependent if the cost of an arc $a$ depends upon the arc taken to enter $a$. These networks are fundamentally different from traditional networks in which the cost associated with an arc is a fixed constant and part of the input. We first study the arc-dependent shortest path (ADSP) problem, which is also known as the suffix-1 path-dependent shortest path problem in the literature. This problem has a polynomial time solution if the shortest paths are not required to be simple. The ADSP problem finds applications in a number of domains, including highway engineering, turn penalties and prohibitions, and fare rebates. In this paper, we are interested in the ADSP problem when restricted to simple paths. We call this restricted version the simple arc-dependent shortest path (SADSP) problem. We show that the SADSP problem is NP-complete. We present inapproximability results and an exact exponential algorithm for this problem. We also extend our results for the longest path problem in arc-dependent networks. Additionally, we explore the problem of detecting negative cycles in arc-dependent networks and discuss its computational complexity. Our results include variants of the negative cycle detection problem such as longest, shortest, heaviest, and lightest negative simple cycles.²     

Reducing costs of backhaul networks for PCS networks using genetic algorithms

Designing cost-effective telecommunications networks often involves solving several challenging, interdependent combinatorial optimization problems simultaneously. For example, it may be necessary to select a least-cost subset of locations (network nodes) to serve as hubs where traffic is to be aggregated and switched; optimally assign other nodes to these hubs, meaning that the traffic entering the network at these nodes will be routed to the assigned hubs while respecting capacity constraints on the links; and optimally choose the types of links to be used in interconnecting the nodes and hubs based on the capacities and costs associated with each link type. Each of these three combinatorial optimization problems must be solved while taking into account its impacts on the other two. This paper introduces a genetic algorithm (GA) approach that has proved effective in designing networks for carrying personal communications services (PCS) traffic. The key innovation is to represent information about hub locations and their interconnections as two parts of a chromosome, so that solutions to both aspects of the problem evolve in parallel toward a globally optimal solution. This approach allows realistic problems that take 4–10 hours to solve via a more conventional branch-and-bound heuristic to be solved in 30–35 seconds. Applied to a real network design problem provided as a test case by Cox California PCS, the heuristics successfully identified a design 10% less expensive than the best previously known design. Cox California PCS has adopted the heuristic results and plans to incorporate network optimization in its future network designs and requests for proposals.