Stabilization in a 3D eco-epidemiological model: From the complete extinction of a predator population to their self-healing

In this paper, using the localization method of compact invariant sets, we examine the ultimate dynamics of the 3D prey–predator model containing two subpopulations of susceptible and infected predators. Our attention is focused to finding ultimate sizes of interacting populations, and, in addition, we show the existence of a global attracting set. Then, we derive various global conditions of ultimate extinction of at least one of the predators subpopulations and describe conditions under which all types of internal bounded dynamics are ruled out. In particular, we describe convergence conditions to omega-limit sets located (1) in the intersection of the prey-free plane with the infected predators-free plane and (2) in the infected predators-free plane. Based on the dynamical analysis of the 2D infection-free subsystem, we obtain conditions of global attraction to (i) the prey-only disease-free equilibrium point, (ii) the disease-free prey-predator equilibrium point (self-healing of the predator population), and (iii) the omega-limit set containing an equilibrium point or a periodic orbit. Main theoretical results are illustrated by numerical simulation. Tools and techniques developed in this work can be appropriated in the studies within predictive population ecology of more complex eco-epidemiological models.     

Transmission dynamics and the control of hepatitis B in China: a population dynamics view

Though the prevalence of hepatitis B began to decline for the first time in 2010, it remains unclear whether this downward trend is permanent and the disease will be eradicated in mainland China under the current measures. Because a large number of hepatitis B virus (HBV) carriers and unknown HBV infections is characteristic of HBV infections in China, a mathematical model was designed and fitted to the reported hepatitis B data. The estimated basic reproduction number is 1.2861 (95\% confidence interval (CI) 1.2386-1.3302), which remains greater than one. Thus, the decline in 2010 may be part of the temporary benefits of public policy measures and should not be interpreted as indicative of successful intervention, although interventions do provide some benefits. To assess the effects of various interventions, the global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses revealed that the contribution of carriers is always greater than that of acute infections, and the prevalence of hepatitis B in China may be primarily a result of transmission by unknown patients. Therefore, strategies for controlling the HBV endemic, which target known patients, are unlikely to be highly effective. Additionally, three feasible strategies are proposed, although the benefits of these strategies may change radically over time.     

A study of harvesting in a predator–prey model with disease in both populations

Disease control by managers is a crucial response to emerging epidemics, and in the context of global change, emerging risks associated with parasites, invasive species, and infectious diseases are an important issue especially for developing countries. Our objective is to provide a mathematical framework to study the response of a predator–prey model to a disease in both populations and harvesting of prey species. We have worked out the conditions for local stability of the equilibrium points as well as persistence of the system. We have derived the ecological and disease basic reproduction numbers. These enable us to determine the community structure of the system. Harvesting may play a crucial role in a host–parasite system, and reasonable harvesting can remove parasite burden from the host. Our numerical results reveal that the reasonable harvesting prevents the oscillations of the species. We conclude that harvesting can be an effective strategy for controlling the spread of disease. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The use of interval arithmetic in solving a non-linear rational expectation based multiperiod output-inflation process model: The case of the IN/GB method

The use of interval mathematics to solve non-linear problems is an attractive alternative to traditional real-number techniques. It was demonstrated in a previous paper [Stradi, B., Haven, E., 2005. Optimal investment strategy via interval arithmetic. International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance 8(2), 185–205] that interval arithmetic in the form of the Interval-Newton Generalized Bisection (IN/GB) method is effective in solving highly non-linear problems. In this paper we solve a rational expectations models with the help of the IN/GB method. This method is capable of (i) rapidly eliminating no solution sections of the multidimensional space and (ii) concentrate computational efforts on those areas of multidimensional space where there may be a solution.     

机制转换条件下股市收益率跳跃行为研究:基于RS-ARJI模型的以中国股市为例的实证分析

为检验股市收益率机制转换特性,考察机制转换条件下股市收益率的跳跃特征,以及在不同机制下跳跃行为对股市收益率的冲击效应,将Markov机制转换思想引入自回归跳跃(ARJI)模型,构建一个机制转换自回归跳跃(RS-ARM)模型.基于该模型对中国股市进行实证研究,结果表明:股市存在高、低波动两种机制,高波动时期的跳跃幅度和强度及其对股市收益率的冲击均大于低波动时期.同时,波动率估计和预测评价指标显示,RS-ARJI模型优于目前被广泛使用的GARCH模型和ARJI模型.