Probability maximizing approach to optimal stopping and its application to a disorder problem

In this paper an optimal stopping problem is formulated, concerned with maximizing the probability of a certain event. Necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of an optimal stopping rule are obtained. The results are then applied to a version of the discrete-time “disorder problem”     

A model for optimal stopping in advertisement

In this work we propose a model for optimal advertisement in new product diffusion based on the Bass model and assuming that the effect of the environmental pressure in the diffusion of the product is subject to a stochastic dependence. The optimal stopping problem is reduced to a free boundary problem which is analyzed and solved numerically, in order to determine an optimal stopping rule for the advertisement campaign. The numerical solution is obtained through a policy iteration like contraction scheme, the convergence properties of which are studied in detail. Furthermore, the expected time until the optimal stopping of the campaign is estimated. Finally, a combined optimal stopping and control problem for the optimization of the advertisement effectiveness is also proposed and solved numerically. Our results are expected to provide useful guidelines for campaign managers, for the choice of effectiveness and duration of an advertisement campaign.     

An optimal stopping problem for a geometric Brownian motion with poissonian jumps

This paper examines an optimal stopping problem for a geometric Brownian motion with random jumps. It is assumed that jumps occur according to a time-homogeneous Poisson process and the proportions of these sizes are independent and identically distributed nonpositive random variables. The objective is to find an optimal stopping time of maximizing the expected discounted terminal reward which is defined as a nondecreasing power function of the stopped state. By applying the “smooth pasting technique” [1,2], we derive almost explicitly an optimal stopping rule of a threshold type and the optimal value function of the initial state. That is, we express the critical state of the optimal stopping region and the optimal value function by formulae which include only given problem parameters except an unknown to be uniquely determined by a nonlinear equation.     

On an optimal stopping problem of Gusein-Zade

We study the problem of selecting one of the r best of n rankable individuals arriving in random order, in which selection must be made with a stopping rule based only on the relative ranks of the successive arrivals. For each r up to r=25, we give the limiting (as n→∞) optimal risk (probability of not selecting one of the r best) and the limiting optimal proportion of individuals to let go by before being willing to stop. (The complete limiting form of the optimal stopping rule is presented for each r up to r=10, and for r=15, 20 and 25.) We show that, for large n and r, the optical risk is approximately (1−t^*)^r, where t^*≈0.2834 is obtained as the roof of a function which is the solution to a certain differential equation. The optimal stopping rule τ_r,n lets approximately t^*n arrivals go by and then stops ‘almost immediately’, in the sense that τ_r,n/n→t^* in probability as n→∞, r→∞     

An optimal stopping problem for fragmentation processes

In this article we consider a toy example of an optimal stopping problem driven by fragmentation processes. We show that one can work with the concept of stopping lines to formulate the notion of an optimal stopping problem and moreover, to reduce it to a classical optimal stopping problem for a generalized Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process associated with Bertoin’s tagged fragment. We go on to solve the latter using a classical verification technique thanks to the application of aspects of the modern theory of integrated exponential Lévy processes.     

Approximation of optimal stopping problems

We consider optimal stopping of independent sequences. Assuming that the corresponding imbedded planar point processes converge to a Poisson process we introduce some additional conditions which allow to approximate the optimal stopping problem of the discrete time sequence by the optimal stopping of the limiting Poisson process. The optimal stopping of the involved Poisson processes is reduced to a differential equation for the critical curve which can be solved in several examples. We apply this method to obtain approximations for the stopping of iid sequences in the domain of max-stable laws with observation costs and with discount factors.     

Reflected BSDEs and robust optimal stopping for dynamic risk measures with jumps

We study the optimal stopping problem for dynamic risk measures represented by Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs) with jumps and its relation with reflected BSDEs (RBSDEs). The financial position is given by an RCLL adapted process. We first state some properties of RBSDEs with jumps when the obstacle process is RCLL only. We then prove that the value function of the optimal stopping problem is characterized as the solution of an RBSDE. The existence of optimal stopping times is obtained when the obstacle is left-upper semi-continuous along stopping times. Finally, we investigate robust optimal stopping problems related to the case with model ambiguity and their links with mixed control/optimal stopping game problems. We prove that, under some hypothesis, the value function is equal to the solution of an RBSDE. We then study the existence of saddle points when the obstacle is left-upper semi-continuous along stopping times.     

Comparison of some sequential procedures with related optimal stopping rules

Summary For the problem of estimating the mean of independent, identically distributed random variables, with loss equal to a linear combination of squared error and sample size, certain sequential procedures have been shown to be asymptotically optimal when compared with the best fixed sample size rule. In this paper it is shown that these procedures are asymptotically suboptimal when compared with a closely related optimal stopping rule.A preliminary version of this paper was presented at the International Meeting on Sample Survey Analysis and on Sequential Analysis, Jerusalem, Israel, June 1982     

The Elimination algorithm for the problem of optimal stopping

We present a new algorithm for solving the optimal stopping problem. The algorithm is based on the idea of elimination of states where stopping is nonoptimal and the corresponding correction of transition probabilities. The formal justification of this method is given by one of two presented theorems. The other theorem describes the situation when an aggregation of states is possible in the optimal stopping problem.     

Existence and explicit determination of optimal stopping times

We consider large classes of continuous time optimal stopping problems for which we establish the existence and form of the optimal stopping times. These optimal times are then used to find approximate optimal solutions for a class of discrete time problems.     

Explicit optimal value for Dynkin's stopping game

Under the One-step Look Ahead rule of Dynamic Programming, an explicit game value of Dynkin's stopping problem for a Markov chain is obtained by using a potential operator. The condition on the One-step rule could be extended to the k-step and infinity-step rule. We shall also decompose the game value as the sum of two explicit functions under these rules.     

On optimal stopping of multidimensional diffusions

This paper develops an approach for solving perpetual discounted optimal stopping problems for multidimensional diffusions, with special emphasis on the $d$-dimensional Wiener process. We first obtain some verification theorems for diffusions, based on the Green kernel representation of the value function. Specializing to the multidimensional Wiener process, we apply the Martin boundary theory to obtain a set of tractable integral equations involving only harmonic functions that characterize the stopping region of the problem in the bounded case. The approach is illustrated through the optimal stopping problem of a $d$-dimensional Wiener process with a positive definite quadratic form reward function.     

Explicit solutions in one-sided optimal stopping problems for one-dimensional diffusions

Consider the optimal stopping problem of a one-dimensional diffusion with positive discount. Based on Dynkin's characterization of the value as the minimal excessive majorant of the reward and considering its Riesz representation, we give an explicit equation to find the optimal stopping threshold for problems with one-sided stopping regions, and an explicit formula for the value function of the problem. This representation also gives light on the validity of the smooth-fit (SF) principle. The results are illustrated by solving some classical problems, and also through the solution of: optimal stopping of the skew Brownian motion and optimal stopping of the sticky Brownian motion, including cases in which the SF principle fails.     

A general method for finding the optimal threshold in discrete time

We develop an approach for solving one-sided optimal stopping problems in discrete time for general underlying Markov processes on the real line. The main idea is to transform the problem into an auxiliary problem for the ladder height variables. In case that the original problem has a one-sided solution and the auxiliary problem has a monotone structure, the corresponding myopic stopping time is optimal for the original problem as well. This elementary line of argument directly leads to a characterization of the optimal boundary in the original problem. The optimal threshold is given by the threshold of the myopic stopping time in the auxiliary problem. Supplying also a sufficient condition for our approach to work, we obtain solutions for many prominent examples in the literature, among others the problems of Novikov-Shiryaev, Shepp-Shiryaev, and the American put in option pricing under general conditions. As a further application we show that for underlying random walks (and Lévy processes in continuous time), general monotone and log-concave reward functions g lead to one-sided stopping problems.     

An iterative procedure for solving integral equations related to optimal stopping problems

We present an iterative algorithm for computing values of optimal stopping problems for one-dimensional diffusions on finite time intervals. The method is based on a time discretization of the initial model and a construction of discretized analogues of the associated integral equation for the value function. The proposed iterative procedure converges in a finite number of steps and delivers in each step a lower or an upper bound for the discretized value function on the whole time interval. We also give remarks on applications of the method for solving the integral equations related to several optimal stopping problems.     

Optimal Learning Rates for Kernel Partial Least Squares

We study two learning algorithms generated by kernel partial least squares (KPLS) and kernel minimal residual (KMR) methods. In these algorithms, regularization against overfitting is obtained by early stopping, which makes stopping rules crucial to their learning capabilities. We propose a stopping rule for determining the number of iterations based on cross-validation, without assuming a priori knowledge of the underlying probability measure, and show that optimal learning rates can be achieved. Our novel analysis consists of a nice bound for the number of iterations in a priori knowledge-based stopping rule for KMR and a stepping stone from KMR to KPLS. Technical tools include a recently developed integral operator approach based on a second order decomposition of inverse operators and an orthogonal polynomial argument.     

Multisource Bayesian sequential binary hypothesis testing problem

We consider the problem of testing two simple hypotheses about unknown local characteristics of several independent Brownian motions and compound Poisson processes. All of the processes may be observed simultaneously as long as desired before a final choice between hypotheses is made. The objective is to find a decision rule that identifies the correct hypothesis and strikes the optimal balance between the expected costs of sampling and choosing the wrong hypothesis. Previous work on Bayesian sequential hypothesis testing in continuous time provides a solution when the characteristics of these processes are tested separately. However, the decision of an observer can improve greatly if multiple information sources are available both in the form of continuously changing signals (Brownian motions) and marked count data (compound Poisson processes). In this paper, we combine and extend those previous efforts by considering the problem in its multisource setting. We identify a Bayes optimal rule by solving an optimal stopping problem for the likelihood-ratio process. Here, the likelihood-ratio process is a jump-diffusion, and the solution of the optimal stopping problem admits a two-sided stopping region. Therefore, instead of using the variational arguments (and smooth-fit principles) directly, we solve the problem by patching the solutions of a sequence of optimal stopping problems for the pure diffusion part of the likelihood-ratio process. We also provide a numerical algorithm and illustrate it on several examples.     

On infinite horizon optimal stopping of general random walk

The objective of this study is to provide an alternative characterization of the optimal value function of a certain Black–Scholes-type optimal stopping problem where the underlying stochastic process is a general random walk, i.e. the process constituted by partial sums of an IID sequence of random variables. Furthermore, the pasting principle of this optimal stopping problem is studied.      

Constrained maximum variance stopping for a finite horizon increasing random walk

We derive the optimal solution for the problem of choosing a non-anticipative decision rule to maximize the stopping variance of a finite horizon, increasing random walk subject to a distributional constraint, as well as an explicit upper limit on the variance of the walk’s stopping state. Problems of this caliber arise as subproblems for risk-constrained versions of standard stopping problems in areas including, for instance, market entry decision-making. A numerical example verifies the main result.