A PC algorithm variation for ordinal variables

Bayesian networks are graphical models that represent the joint distribution of a set of variables using directed acyclic graphs. The graph can be manually built by domain experts according to their knowledge. However, when the dependence structure is unknown (or partially known) the network has to be estimated from data by using suitable learning algorithms. In this paper, we deal with a constraint-based method to perform Bayesian networks structural learning in the presence of ordinal variables. We propose an alternative version of the PC algorithm, which is one of the most known procedures, with the aim to infer the network by accounting for additional information inherent to ordinal data. The proposal is based on a nonparametric test, appropriate for ordinal variables. A comparative study shows that, in some situations, the proposal discussed here is a slightly more efficient solution than the PC algorithm.     

Reducing network and computation complexities in neural based real-time scheduling scheme

Multiprocessor real-time scheduling is an important issue in many applications. A neural network provides a highly effective method to obtain good solutions for real-time scheduling problems. However, multiprocessor real-time scheduling problems include multiple variables; processor, process and time, and the neural networks have to be presented in three dimensions with these variables. Hence, the corresponding neural networks have more neurons, and synaptic weights, and thus associated network and computational complexities increase. Meanwhile, a neural network using the competitive scheme can provide a highly effective method with less network complexity. Therefore, in this study, a simplified two-dimensional Hopfield-type neural network using competitive rule is introduced for solving three-dimensional multiprocessor real-time scheduling problems. Restated, a two-dimensional network is proposed to lower the neural network dimensions and decrease the number of neurons and hence reduce the network complexity; an M-out-of-N competitive scheme is suggested to greatly reduce the computational complexity. Simulation results reveal that the proposed scheme imposed on the derived energy function with respect to process time and deadline constraints is an appropriate approach to solving these class scheduling problems. Moreover, the computational complexity of the proposed scheme is greatly lowered to O(N × T²).     

High-Dimensional Covariance Matrix Estimation Based on Network

A new method for estimating high-dimensional covariance matrix based on network structure with heteroscedasticity of response variables is proposed in this paper. This method greatly reduces the computational complexity by transforming the high-dimensional covariance matrix estimation problem into a low-dimensional linear regression problem. Even if the size of sample is finite, the estimation method is still effective. The error of estimation will decrease with the increase of matrix dimension. In addition, this paper presents a method of identifying influential nodes in network via covariance matrix. This method is very suitable for academic cooperation networks by taking into account both the contribution of the node itself and the impact of the node on other nodes.     

Generalized loopy 2U: A new algorithm for approximate inference in credal networks

Credal networks generalize Bayesian networks by relaxing the requirement of precision of probabilities. Credal networks are considerably more expressive than Bayesian networks, but this makes belief updating NP-hard even on polytrees. We develop a new efficient algorithm for approximate belief updating in credal networks. The algorithm is based on an important representation result we prove for general credal networks: that any credal network can be equivalently reformulated as a credal network with binary variables; moreover, the transformation, which is considerably more complex than in the Bayesian case, can be implemented in polynomial time. The equivalent binary credal network is then updated by L2U, a loopy approximate algorithm for binary credal networks. Overall, we generalize L2U to non-binary credal networks, obtaining a scalable algorithm for the general case, which is approximate only because of its loopy nature. The accuracy of the inferences with respect to other state-of-the-art algorithms is evaluated by extensive numerical tests.     

利用贝叶斯网络分析基因表达数据

利用基因表达数据提出一种新的网络模型—贝叶斯网络,发现基因的互作.一个贝叶斯网络是多变量联合概率分布的有向图模型,表示变量间的条件独立属性.首先我们阐明贝叶斯网络如何表示基因间的互作,然后介绍从基因芯片数据学习贝叶斯网络的方法.     

Conflict-directed A and its role in model-based embedded systems

Artificial Intelligence has traditionally used constraint satisfaction and logic to frame a wide range of problems, including planning, diagnosis, cognitive robotics and embedded systems control. However, many decision making problems are now being re-framed as optimization problems, involving a search over a discrete space for the best solution that satisfies a set of constraints. The best methods for finding optimal solutions, such as A^*, explore the space of solutions one state at a time. This paper introduces conflict-directed A^*, a method for solving optimal constraint satisfaction problems. Conflict-directed A^* searches the state space in best first order, but accelerates the search process by eliminating subspaces around each state that are inconsistent. This elimination process builds upon the concepts of conflict and kernel diagnosis used in model-based diagnosis [J. de Kleer, B.C. Williams, Diagnosing multiple faults, Artif. Intell. 32(1) (1987) 97-130; J. de Kleer, A. Mackworth, R. Reiter, Characterizing diagnoses and systems, Artif. Intell. 56 (1992) 197-222] and in dependency-directed search [R. Stallman, G.J. Sussman, Forward reasoning and dependency-directed backtracking in a system for computer-aided circuit analysis, Artif. Intell. 9 (1977) 135-196; J. Gaschnig, Performance measurement and analysis of certain search algorithms, Technical Report CMU-CS-79-124, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 1979; J. de Kleer, B.C. Williams, Back to backtracking: controlling the ATMS, in: Proceedings of AAAI-86, 1986, pp. 910-917; M. Ginsberg, Dynamic backtracking, J. Artif. Intell. Res. 1 (1993) 25-46]. Conflict-directed A^* is a fundamental tool for building model-based embedded systems, and has been used to solve a range of problems, including fault isolation [J. de Kleer, B.C. Williams, Diagnosing multiple faults, Artif. Intell. 32(1) (1987) 97-130], diagnosis [J. de Kleer, B.C. Williams, Diagnosis with behavioral modes, in: Proceedings of IJCAI-89, 1989, pp. 1324-1330], mode estimation and repair [B.C. Williams, P. Nayak, A model-based approach to reactive self-configuring systems, in: Proceedings of AAAI-96, 1996, pp. 971-978], model-compilation [B.C. Williams, P. Nayak, A reactive planner for a model-based executive, in: Proceedings of IJCAI-97, 1997] and model-based programming [M. Ingham, R. Ragno, B.C. Williams, A reactive model-based programming language for robotic space explorers, in: Proceedings of ISAIRAS-01, 2001].     

An optimization-based approach for the design of Bayesian networks

Bayesian networks model conditional dependencies among the domain variables, and provide a way to deduce their interrelationships as well as a method for the classification of new instances. One of the most challenging problems in using Bayesian networks, in the absence of a domain expert who can dictate the model, is inducing the structure of the network from a large, multivariate data set. We propose a new methodology for the design of the structure of a Bayesian network based on concepts of graph theory and nonlinear integer optimization techniques.     

Inference in directed evidential networks based on the transferable belief model

Inference algorithms in directed evidential networks (DEVN) obtain their efficiency by making use of the represented independencies between variables in the model. This can be done using the disjunctive rule of combination (DRC) and the generalized Bayesian theorem (GBT), both proposed by Smets [Ph. Smets, Belief functions: the disjunctive rule of combination and the generalized Bayesian theorem, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 9 (1993) 1–35]. These rules make possible the use of conditional belief functions for reasoning in directed evidential networks, avoiding the computations of joint belief function on the product space. In this paper, new algorithms based on these two rules are proposed for the propagation of belief functions in singly and multiply directed evidential networks.     

Modeling semiconductor devices by using Neuro Space Mapping

In this paper a new method for modeling semiconductor devices by use of the drift-diffusion (DD) model and neural networks is presented. Unlike the hydrodynamic (HD) model which is complicated, time consuming with high processing cost, the proposed method has lower complexity and lower simulation time. In this method the RBF neural network has been used for correcting parameters in the drift-diffusion model. Therefore solving approximate model (DD) causes to obtain accurate response. The proposed method is first applied to a silicon n-i-n diode in one dimension, and then to a silicon thin-film MOSFET in two-dimensions, both for interpolation and extrapolation. The obtained results for basic variables, i.e., electron and potential distribution for different voltages, confirm the high efficiency of the proposed method.     

Approximation of multivariable functions with respect to random points less than 2 k,k dimension of space

Summary The problem of the numerical approximation of multivariable functions has been solved by the Monte Carlo method when the data points are assumed to be given on discrete lattice points [5, 8, 2]. When the data points are randomly distributed and very numerous there are some results in the literature [3, 6] but if the number of the points is less than 2 ^k , wherek is the dimension of the space, it is very difficult to develop approximation formulas. This paper gives a solution to this problem by local approximations.     

Most probable explanations in Bayesian networks: Complexity and tractability

One of the key computational problems in Bayesian networks is computing the maximal posterior probability of a set of variables in the network, given an observation of the values of another set of variables. In its most simple form, this problem is known as the MPE-problem. In this paper, we give an overview of the computational complexity of many problem variants, including enumeration variants, parameterized problems, and approximation strategies to the MPE-problem with and without additional (neither observed nor explained) variables. Many of these complexity results appear elsewhere in the literature; other results have not been published yet. The paper aims to provide a fairly exhaustive overview of both the known and new results.     

Knowledge discovery using a neural network simultaneous optimization algorithm on a real world classification problem

Artificial neural networks have been shown to perform well for two-group classification problems. However, current research has yet to determine a method for identifying relevant input variables in the neural network model for real world classification problems. The common practice in neural network research is to include all available input variables that could possibly contribute to the model without determination of whether they help in estimating the unknown function. One problem with this avenue of neural network research is the inability to extract the knowledge that could be useful to researchers by identifying those input variables that contribute to estimating the true underlying function of the data. A method has been proposed in past research, the Neural Network Simultaneous Optimization Algorithm (NNSOA), which was shown to be successful for a limited number of continuous problems. This research proposes using the NNSOA on a real world classification problem that not only finds good solutions for estimating unknown functions, but can also correctly identify those variables that contribute to the model.     

A comparison between the material point method and the finite element method in view of extrusion problems

An appropriate method for the simulation of continuous forming processes is the material point method (MPM) [1],[2] which combines the viewpoints of fluid dynamics and solid mechanics. The MPM and related methods [3] are derived from the particle‐in‐cell methods [4]. Bodies are discretised by Lagragian particles with pointwise mass distributions. The differential equations in their weak form are solved on temporary meshes built of standard finite elements. At the end of each time step the particle positions are updated and the mesh is replaced by a new mesh with a regular shape. The state variables at the nodes of the new mesh are extracted from the state variables at the particles by a transfer algorithm. When particles pass element boundaries, numerical difficulties might be observed. These are eliminated by a smooth approximation of nodal data from material point data. The modified MPM has been implemented together with the FEM in one programme because the similarities of the methods outbalance the differences. On the basis of numerical examples the results of both methods are compared. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Approximate credal network updating by linear programming with applications to decision making

Credal nets are probabilistic graphical models which extend Bayesian nets to cope with sets of distributions. An algorithm for approximate credal network updating is presented. The problem in its general formulation is a multilinear optimization task, which can be linearized by an appropriate rule for fixing all the local models apart from those of a single variable. This simple idea can be iterated and quickly leads to accurate inferences. A transformation is also derived to reduce decision making in credal networks based on the maximality criterion to updating. The decision task is proved to have the same complexity of standard inference, being NP^PP-complete for general credal nets and NP-complete for polytrees. Similar results are derived for the E-admissibility criterion. Numerical experiments confirm a good performance of the method.     

Fast algorithms for robust classification with Bayesian nets

We focus on a well-known classification task with expert systems based on Bayesian networks: predicting the state of a target variable given an incomplete observation of the other variables in the network, i.e., an observation of a subset of all the possible variables. To provide conclusions robust to near-ignorance about the process that prevents some of the variables from being observed, it has recently been derived a new rule, called conservative updating. With this paper we address the problem to efficiently compute the conservative updating rule for robust classification with Bayesian networks. We show first that the general problem is NP-hard, thus establishing a fundamental limit to the possibility to do robust classification efficiently. Then we define a wide subclass of Bayesian networks that does admit efficient computation. We show this by developing a new classification algorithm for such a class, which extends substantially the limits of efficient computation with respect to the previously existing algorithm. The algorithm is formulated as a variable elimination procedure, whose computation time is linear in the input size.     

Design of computer network topologies: A Vroom Inspired Psychoclonal Algorithm

In the prevailing era of network and communication technology, the problem pertaining to the determination of the most economic way to interconnect nodes while satisfying some reliability and quality of service constraints has been agnized as one of the most intricate and challenging problem for the modern day researchers and practitioners belonging to Communication and Networking community. Motivated by the improved performance of the concepts like proliferation, affinity maturation, receptor editing, etc., over the more prevalent generalized crossover and mutation; and by the application and effectiveness of Maslow’s need hierarchy in combinatorial optimization as well the more logical motivational concepts provided by Vroom’s valence expectancy theory, authors have proposed and investigated their applications to the topological design of distributed packet switched networks. The extensive computations over the problems of varying complexities and dimensions prove the superiority of the proposed methodology. It has been observed that the proposed Vroom Inspired Psychoclonal Algorithm (VIPA) outperforms the traditional well established random search algorithms (i.e. Genetic Algorithm, Simulated Annealing and Artificial Immune Systems) in the context of underlying problem; the performance being significantly improved as the problem complexity increases.     

The use of random weights for the training of multilayer networks of neurons with Heaviside characteristics

Artificial neural networks have, in recent years, been very successfully applied in a wide range of areas. A major reason for this success has been the existence of a training algorithm called backpropagation. This algorithm relies upon the neural units in a network having input/output characteristics that are continuously differentiable. Such units are significantly less easy to implement in silicon than are neural units with Heaviside (step-function) characteristics. In this paper, we show how a training algorithm similar to backpropagation can be developed for 2-layer networks of Heaviside units by treating the network weights (i.e., interconnection strengths) as random variables. This is then used as a basis for the development of a training algorithm for networks with any number of layers by drawing upon the idea of internal representations. Some examples are given to illustrate the performance of these learning algorithms.     

Integrating Bayesian networks and decision trees in a sequential rule-based transportation model

Several activity-based transportation models are now becoming operational and are entering the stage of application for the modelling of travel demand. Some of these models use decision rules to support its decision-making instead of principles of utility maximization. Decision rules can be derived from different modelling approaches. In a previous study, it was shown that Bayesian networks outperform decision trees and that they are better suited to capture the complexity of the underlying decision-making. However, one of the disadvantages is that Bayesian networks are somewhat limited in terms of interpretation and efficiency when rules are derived from the network, while rules derived from decision trees in general have a simple and direct interpretation. Therefore, in this study, the idea of combining decision trees and Bayesian networks was explored in order to maintain the potential advantages of both techniques. The paper reports the findings of a methodological study that was conducted in the context of Albatross, which is a sequential rule based model of activity scheduling behaviour. To this end, the paper can be situated within the context of a series of previous publications by the authors to improve decision-making in Albatross. The results of this study suggest that integrated Bayesian networks and decision trees can be used for modelling the different choice facets of Albatross with better predictive power than CHAID decision trees. Another conclusion is that there are initial indications that the new way of integrating decision trees and Bayesian networks has produced a decision tree that is structurally more stable.     

Bayesian neural network learning for repeat purchase modelling in direct marketing

We focus on purchase incidence modelling for a European direct mail company. Response models based on statistical and neural network techniques are contrasted. The evidence framework of MacKay is used as an example implementation of Bayesian neural network learning, a method that is fairly robust with respect to problems typically encountered when implementing neural networks. The automatic relevance determination (ARD) method, an integrated feature of this framework, allows us to assess the relative importance of the inputs. The basic response models use operationalisations of the traditionally discussed Recency, Frequency and Monetary (RFM) predictor categories. In a second experiment, the RFM response framework is enriched by the inclusion of other (non-RFM) customer profiling predictors. We contribute to the literature by providing experimental evidence that: (1) Bayesian neural networks offer a viable alternative for purchase incidence modelling; (2) a combined use of all three RFM predictor categories is advocated by the ARD method; (3) the inclusion of non-RFM variables allows to significantly augment the predictive power of the constructed RFM classifiers; (4) this rise is mainly attributed to the inclusion of customer/company interaction variables and a variable measuring whether a customer uses the credit facilities of the direct mailing company.     

供应链网络可靠性的多层Bayes估计模型

对供应链网络可靠性进行界定和分析,以节点企业间的协同为基础,得到可靠度计算模型,以此为依据采集实证样本无失效运行的数据.根据供应链网络可靠性统计特性,建立一种多层Bayes估计方法,应用于样本可靠性评估中.在估计失效率的基础上,对供应链网络可靠度进行估计,对仿真结果进行分析,显示多层Bayes估计方法应用效果较好,精确度高,反映了参数不确定性对供应链网络可靠性的影响,能够较好地解决依据无失效数据判定供应链网络可靠性水平的问题.