Markov processes conditioned on their location at large exponential times

Suppose that ${\left(X_t\right)}_{t\ge 0}$ is a one-dimensional Brownian motion with negative drift $?\mu$. It is possible to make sense of conditioning this process to be in the state 0 at an independent exponential random time and if we kill the conditioned process at the exponential time the resulting process is Markov. If we let the rate parameter of the random time go to 0, then the limit of the killed Markov process evolves like $X$ conditioned to hit 0, after which time it behaves as $X$ killed at the last time $X$ visits 0. Equivalently, the limit process has the dynamics of the killed “bang–bang” Brownian motion that evolves like Brownian motion with positive drift $+\mu$ when it is negative, like Brownian motion with negative drift $?\mu$ when it is positive, and is killed according to the local time spent at 0.An extension of this result holds in great generality for a Borel right process conditioned to be in some state $a$ at an exponential random time, at which time it is killed. Our proofs involve understanding the Campbell measures associated with local times, the use of excursion theory, and the development of a suitable analogue of the “bang–bang” construction for a general Markov process.As examples, we consider the special case when the transient Borel right process is a one-dimensional diffusion. Characterizing the limiting conditioned and killed process via its infinitesimal generator leads to an investigation of the $h$-transforms of transient one-dimensional diffusion processes that goes beyond what is known and is of independent interest.     

Conditioned real self-similar Markov processes

In recent work, Chaumont et al. (2013) showed that is possible to condition a stable process with index $\alpha \in (1,2)$ to avoid the origin. Specifically, they describe a new Markov process which is the Doob $h$-transform of a stable process and which arises from a limiting procedure in which the stable process is conditioned to have avoided the origin at later and later times. A stable process is a particular example of a real self-similar Markov process (rssMp) and we develop the idea of such conditionings further to the class of rssMp. Under appropriate conditions, we show that the specific case of conditioning to avoid the origin corresponds to a classical Cramér–Esscher-type transform to the Markov Additive Process (MAP) that underlies the Lamperti–Kiu representation of a rssMp. In the same spirit, we show that the notion of conditioning a rssMp to continuously absorb at the origin also fits the same mathematical framework. In particular, we characterise the stable process conditioned to continuously absorb at the origin when $\alpha \in (0,1)$. Our results also complement related work for positive self-similar Markov processes in Chaumont and Rivero (2007).     

On weak uniqueness and distributional properties of a solution to an SDE with α-stable noise

For an SDE driven by a rotationally invariant $\alpha$-stable noise we prove weak uniqueness of the solution under the balance condition $\alpha +\gamma >1$, where $\gamma$ denotes the Hölder index of the drift coefficient. We prove the existence and continuity of the transition probability density of the corresponding Markov process and give a representation of this density with an explicitly given “principal part”, and a “residual part” which possesses an upper bound. Similar representation is also provided for the derivative of the transition probability density w.r.t. the time variable.     

Persistence of sums of correlated increments and clustering in cellular automata

Let $T$ be the first return time to $(?\infty ,0]$ of sums of increments given by a functional of a stationary Markov chain. We determine the asymptotic behavior of the survival probability, $\mathbb{P}(T\ge t)～C{t}^{?1∕2}$ for an explicit constant $C$. Our analysis is based on a connection between the survival probability and the running maximum of the time-reversed process, and relies on a functional central limit theorem for Markov chains. As applications, we recover known clustering results for the 3-color cyclic cellular automaton and the Greenberg–Hastings model, and we prove a new clustering result for the 3-color firefly cellular automaton.