随机环境下的MTAR模型的几何遍历性

在本文中,提出了随机环境下的MTAR模型的非常返性及其确定的导出序列几何遍历的几个充分条件.     

Geometric Ergodicity of Gibbs and Block Gibbs Samplers for a Hierarchical Random Effects Model

We consider fixed scan Gibbs and block Gibbs samplers for a Bayesian hierarchical random effects model with proper conjugate priors. A drift condition given in Meyn and Tweedie (1993, Chapter 15) is used to show that these Markov chains are geometrically ergodic. Showing that a Gibbs sampler is geometrically ergodic is the first step toward establishing central limit theorems, which can be used to approximate the error associated with Monte Carlo estimates of posterior quantities of interest. Thus, our results will be of practical interest to researchers using these Gibbs samplers for Bayesian data analysis.     

Geometric Ergodicity for Piecewise Contracting Processes with Applications for Tropical Stochastic Lattice Models

Stochastic lattice models are increasingly prominent as a way to capture highly intermittent unresolved features of moist tropical convection in climate science and as continuum mesoscopic models in material science. Stochastic lattice models consist of suitably discretized continuum partial differential equations interacting with Markov jump processes at each lattice site with transition rates depending on the local value of the continuum equation; they are a special case of piecewise deterministic Markov processes but often have an infinite state space and unbounded transition rates. Here a general theorem on geometric ergodicity for piecewise deterministic contracting processes is developed with full generality to apply to stochastic lattice models. A highly nontrivial application to the stochastic skeleton model for the Madden‐Julian oscillation (Thual et al., 2013) is developed here where there is an infinite state space with unbounded and also degenerate transition rates. Geometric ergodicity for the stochastic skeleton model guarantees exponential convergence to a unique invariant measure that defines the statistical tropical climate of the model. Another application of the general framework is developed here for stochastic lattice models designed to capture intermittent fluctuation in the simplest tropical climate models. Other straightforward applications to models motivated by material science are mentioned briefly here. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Geometric Ergodicity of Metropolis-Hastings Algorithms for Conditional Simulation in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Conditional simulation is useful in connection with inference and prediction for a generalized linear mixed model. We consider random walk Metropolis and Langevin-Hastings algorithms for simulating the random effects given the observed data, when the joint distribution of the unobserved random effects is multivariate Gaussian. In particular we study the desirable property of geometric ergodicity, which ensures the validity of central limit theorems for Monte Carlo estimates.     

THE ERGODICITY FOR BI-IMMIGRATION BIRTH AND DEATH PROCESSES IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENT

The concepts of bi-immigration birth and death density matrix in random environment and bi-immigration birth and death process in random environment are introduced. For any bi-immigration birth and death matrix in random environment Q（θ） with birth rate λ 〈 death rate μ, the following results are proved, （1） there is an unique q-process in random environment, P^-（θ＊（0）;t） = （p^-（θ^＊（0）;t,i,j）,i,j ≥ 0）, which is ergodic, that is, lim t→∞（θ^＊（0）;t,i,j） = π^-（θ^＊（0）;j） ≥0 does not depend on i ≥ 0 and ∑j≥0π （θ＊（0）;j） = 1, （2） there is a bi-immigration birth and death process in random enjvironment （X^＊ = {X^＊,t ≥ 0},ε^＊ = {εt,t ∈ （-∞, ∞）}） with random transition matrix P^-（θ^＊ （0）;t） such that X^＊ is a strictly stationary process.     

Ergodicity and First Passage Probability of Regime-Switching Geometric Brownian Motions

A regime-switching geometric Brownian motion is used to model a geometric Brownian motion with its coefficients changing randomly according to a Markov chain. In this work, the author gives a complete characterization of the recurrent property of this process. The long time behavior of this process such as its p-th moment is also studied. Moreover, the quantitative properties of the regime-switching geometric Brownian motion with two-state switching are investigated to show the difference between geometric Brownian motion with switching and without switching. At last, some estimates of its first passage probability are established.     

Random Geometric Complexes

We study the expected topological properties of Čech and Vietoris–Rips complexes built on random points in ℝ ^d . We find higher-dimensional analogues of known results for connectivity and component counts for random geometric graphs. However, higher homology H _k is not monotone when k>0.     

非寿险分类费率模型及其参数估计

在非寿险分类费率厘定中,存在各种模型可供选择,如加法模型、乘法模型、混合模型和广义线性模型等,而在这些模型的参数估计中,还存在各种可供选择的估计方法,如最小二乘法、极大似然法、最小x2法、直接法和边际总和法等。这些模型和参数估计方法散见于各种精算学文献中,本文对这些模型和参数估计方法进行了系统的比较和分析,并揭示了它们之间存在的一些等价关系。     

带随机延滞的ARCH模型的几何遍历性

本文对带随机延滞的ARCH模型进行了分析,并得到该模型伴随几何遍历的一个判别准则.     

On Homogeneous Multivariate Distributions in Random Occupancy Models and Their Applications

Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability - In this article, we consider random occupancy models and the related problems based on the methods of generating functions. The waiting time...     

几何随机变量的卷积

使用组合数学与概率论的方法研究了几何随机变量的卷积.     

Infinite Random Geometric Graphs

We introduce a new class of countably infinite random geometric graphs, whose vertices V are points in a metric space, and vertices are adjacent independently with probability p ? (0, 1){p \in (0, 1)} if the metric distance between the vertices is below a given threshold. For certain choices of V as a countable dense set in \mathbbRⁿ{\mathbb{R}^n} equipped with the metric derived from the L _∞-norm, it is shown that with probability 1 such infinite random geometric graphs have a unique isomorphism type. The isomorphism type, which we call GR _n , is characterized by a geometric analogue of the existentially closed adjacency property, and we give a deterministic construction of GR _n . In contrast, we show that infinite random geometric graphs in \mathbbR²{\mathbb{R}^{2}} with the Euclidean metric are not necessarily isomorphic.     

随机变量二次型的协方差在混合效应模型中的应用

本文提出方差分量ANOVA估计的一种改进方法, 证明了对于一般的方差分量模型, 只要方差分量的ANOVA估计存在就可以通过此方法给出其改进形式, 并且在均方误差意义下优于ANOVA估计. 特别地, 对于单向分类随机效应模型, Kelly和Mathew^[1]对ANOVA估计的改进就是我们提出的改进方法的特殊形式, 这也给出了此类改进估计在均方误差意义下优于ANOVA估计的另一种合理的解释. 同时, 本文又将此思想应用到对谱分解估计的改进上. 本文应用协方差的简单性质证明了对带有一个随机效应的方差分量模型, 当随机效应的协方差阵只有一个非零特征值时, 随机效应方差分量谱分解估计在均方误差意义下总是优于ANOVA估计. 本文最后将第三节的结论推广到广义谱分解估计下, 同时给出广义谱分解估计待定系数的一个合理的取值.     

Conditions for Permanence and Ergodicity of Certain SIR Epidemic Models

In this paper, we study sufficient conditions for the permanence and ergodicity of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model with Beddington-DeAngelis incidence rate in both of non-degenerate and degenerate cases. The conditions obtained in fact are close to the necessary one. We also characterize the support of the invariant probability measure and prove the convergence in total variation norm of the transition probability to the invariant measure. Some of numerical examples are given to illustrate our results.

     

The Spectrum of a Random Geometric Graph is Concentrated

Consider n points, x ₁,... , x _n , distributed uniformly in [0, 1] ^d . Form a graph by connecting two points x _i and x _j if . This gives a random geometric graph, , which is connected for appropriate r(n). We show that the spectral measure of the transition matrix of the simple random walk on is concentrated, and in fact converges to that of the graph on the deterministic grid.      

Graph Treewidth and Geometric Thickness Parameters

Consider a drawing of a graph G in the plane such that crossing edges are coloured differently. The minimum number of colours, taken over all drawings of G, is the classical graph parameter thickness. By restricting the edges to be straight, we obtain the geometric thickness. By additionally restricting the vertices to be in convex position, we obtain the book thickness. This paper studies the relationship between these parameters and treewidth. Our first main result states that for graphs of treewidth k, the maximum thickness and the maximum geometric thickness both equal ⌈k/2⌉. This says that the lower bound for thickness can be matched by an upper bound, even in the more restrictive geometric setting. Our second main result states that for graphs of treewidth k, the maximum book thickness equals k if k ≤ 2 and equals k + 1 if k ≥ 3. This refutes a conjecture of Ganley and Heath [Discrete Appl. Math. 109(3):215-221, 2001]. Analogous results are proved for outerthickness, arboricity, and star-arboricity.     

Rare Events in Random Geometric Graphs

This work introduces and compares approaches for estimating rare-event probabilities related to the number of edges in the random geometric graph on a Poisson point process. In the one-dimensional setting, we derive closed-form expressions for a variety of conditional probabilities related to the number of edges in the random geometric graph and develop conditional Monte Carlo algorithms for estimating rare-event probabilities on this basis. We prove rigorously a reduction in variance when compared to the crude Monte Carlo estimators and illustrate the magnitude of the improvements in a simulation study. In higher dimensions, we use conditional Monte Carlo to remove the fluctuations in the estimator coming from the randomness in the Poisson number of nodes. Finally, building on conceptual insights from large-deviations theory, we illustrate that importance sampling using a Gibbsian point process can further substantially reduce the estimation variance.

     

拓扑遍历与拓扑双重遍历

令X为紧致度量空间,f:X→X为连续映射,U,V为X的任意非空开集,若{n>0|fn(U)∩V≠ )为正上密度集,则称f拓扑遍历.f拓扑双重遍历意味着f×f拓扑遍历.本文在[2]的基础上进一步讨论拓扑遍历与拓扑双重遍历映射的性质.