Artificial intelligence and social forecasting*

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the study of how to write programs enabling computers to do things that would require intelligence if done by people, and it could engage with social forecasting in two ways. First, it is part of the overall social‐technological context within which forecasters work. Commercial Al‐programs will affect markets and life‐styles; and advice‐giving “expert” systems will raise novel legal, social, and psychological problems. Second, AI‐programs might be used for making the social forecasts. Unlike the (essentially quantitative) computer models used for this purpose today, they could reason (and explain themselves) in verbal form. Writing an expert system requires clarification of the theories, assumptions, and “rule‐of‐thumb” inferences concerned. It would be easier to identify the inherent moral‐political bias than it is in models comprising sets of differential equations.     

Action structures and sociological action theory

Three research traditions that have developed formal representations of action structures are presented in the first part of this paper and preliminary attempts are made to unify them. These three efforts differ more or less substantially in focus: affect control (Heise 1979; 1985), institutionalized social action (Fararo and Skvoretz 1984; 1986) and action feasibility (Nowakowska 1973). In the second part of the paper, we attempt to place these formal models in a more general theoretical context, namely, that of sociological action theory as it has been developed in the work of Talcott Parsons. Our presentation here concentrates on cybernetic imagery in Parsonian action theory, particularly in relation to his famous AGIL scheme of analysis and in relation to his concern with types of actions and corresponding value‐standards.     

The human brain,social conformity,and presidential elections

This paper investigates aggregate voting behavior in American presidential elections from 1904 to 1980; the state is unit of analysis. We abandon the traditional assumption that voting is a rational process and instead construct a model to test the power of social conformity over voting decisions. The model, which uses the entropy measure of statistical information theory, allows specific numerical tests of its validity and, additionally, reveals unexpected dynamic patterns in voting behavior. We find four distinct processes related to social conformity that affect voter turnout and the distribution of votes among presidential candidates. A mathematical model for each process is identified and parameters are estimated from election data.     

On fuzzy cliques in fuzzy networks

A definition of fuzzy clique in social networks is suggested which overcomes five limitations of current definitions. This definition is based on the networks in which the 0–1 strengths, the weighted strengths, and fuzzy strengths are all allowed. The fuzzy distance in such a network is defined. The node‐clique and clique‐clique coefficients are suggested. The core and the periphery of fuzzy cliques are discussed formally. A “cone like” property of the cores is discovered. The network structures are discussed using the new definition. A “no circle” property of networks is found. Basic fuzzy tools and the related algorithms are also discussed. Some examples are analyzed to demonstrate the theory.     

Feedback control and the concept of homeostasis

The maintenance of life requires a steady-state internal environment that must be held relatively constant within carefully prescribed limits. Feedback control mechanisms that provide this type of restraint work through homeostatic regulators that transmit information through a corresponding syntax that is uniquely their own. The language is coded into electromagnetic information that is of a reference nature (genetic, adaptive or conditioned), sensory (informative) or motor (causative), and which is transmitted as action potentials that have a functional dependence on the error signal and a parametric dependence on the disturbing signal. The analysis of homeostasis within the context of feedback control theory reduces seemingly complex, unrelated sequences of physiologic processes into more readily identifiable sets of common denominators that illucidate some basic principles of biologic function. Appropriate interpretation of these biologic principles may help us move closer to success in our efforts to improve the health, comfort and understanding of man. This is because the specific details of complex physiologic processes may be viewed as simply special cases (or different sets of boundary conditions) of a unified guiding theory.     

Pareto efficiency,simple game stability,and social structure in finitely repeated games

Simple game (sensu Brown and Vincent, 1987) evolutionary theory, when coupled with social structure measured as non‐random encounter of strategy “clones”, often permits equilibrium refinement leading to Pareto superior outcomes (e.g., Axelrod, 1981; Myerson et al., 1991), a foundational goal of economic game theory (Myerson, 1991: 370–375). This conclusion, derived from analyses of one‐shot and infinitely repeated games, fails for finitely repeated games. While mutant cluster invasion enhances Pareto efficiency of equilibria in the former, it can depress Pareto efficiency in the latter. Cooperative equilibria of finitely repeated games (under economic analysis) can be susceptible to cluster‐invasion by even more Pareto efficient strategies which are not themselves evolutionarily stable. Evolutionary (simple) game theory's ability to eliminate Pareto inferior Nash equilibrium strategies induces vulnerabilities foreign to economic analysis. Simple game analysis of finitely repeated games suggests that social structure, modeled as perennial invasion by mutant‐clusters, can induce cyclic invasion, saturation, and loss of cooperation.     

Facilitation: some contributions to theorising the practice of operational research

The paper examines the contributions of two distinct areas of theory to the practice of facilitation in operational research. The first area examined is deconstruction, presented in terms of its theorising about the role of language in social interaction, and as a method for describing and critiquing different positions present in written or verbal texts, for example positions inherent in the views of different stakeholders or underlying alternative strategies or options under consideration. The second area examined is ‘re-evaluation counselling’ or ‘co-counselling’, presented as a body of theory about human emotion and the impact of distress, and associated with a range of tools and techniques for use in stimulating creative thinking and analysing and responding to emotional outbursts during the course of facilitated work sessions. Examples from OR practice in the field of group decision-making and action illustrate the discussion in both these sections.     

On the nature of OR: taking stock

This paper argues that OR, having reached its maturity, must now play to its strengths. In strategic terms this means competing in those areas where OR's core competences can be brought to bear. Using a competence model it is suggested that OR's core products are (i) the development and implementation of the quantitative, algorithmic ‘smart bits’ and (ii) the ‘helpful ways’ of managing intervention processes. These core products are supported and sustained by three core competences labelled process, analytic, and context. Individuals and small groups of practitioners develop ‘strands of practice’ and larger groups ‘webs of practice’ on the basis of their core competences. It is argued that this is giving rise to the emergence of three archetypes of OR service, namely the OR technical consultancy, the OR process consultancy, and the full service OR consultancy. Both the technical and process consulting are built around ‘strands of practice’ of individuals and find their natural home in small service providers. The full service OR consulting practice, in the past located in internal OR groups, will in the future be located within the large management consultancies, which are capable of managing ‘webs of practice’. The implications for the worlds of OR practice and academia are examined.     

ISSUE INFORMATION

Modeling social‐ecological systems is difficult due to the complexity of ecosystems and of individual and collective human behavior. Key components of the social‐ecological system are often over‐simplified or omitted. Generalized modeling is a dynamical systems approach that can overcome some of these challenges. It can rigorously analyze qualitative system dynamics such as regime shifts despite incomplete knowledge of the model's constituent processes. Here, we review generalized modeling and use a recent study on the Baltic Sea cod fishery's boom and collapse to demonstrate its application to modeling the dynamics of empirical social‐ecological systems. These empirical applications demand new methods of analysis suited to larger, more complicated generalized models. Generalized modeling is a promising tool for rapidly developing mathematically rigorous, process‐based understanding of a social‐ecological system's dynamics despite limited knowledge of the system.     

Disambiguating verbal comments in social interaction: A computer model of meaning*

This paper describes a computer program for disambiguating the meaning of verbal acts in social interaction. The program was implemented using artificial intelligence techniques, representing utterances by frames, designing separate agents employing procedural rules to infer values of each coding dimension, and sharing information through a blackboard. The computer algorithms are discussed and illustrated with examples, then results of an empirical test of the program are reported. A training‐set of verbal interactions among health care practitioners and patients was examined to build the program, with an independent test‐set of data used to assess program performance. On a practical level, this program offers a promising approach for computer‐assisted or even automatic coding of interaction processes, reducing coding costs and improving reliability and validity. On a theoretical level, these algorithms offer a model of how individuals disambiguate the meaning of verbal comments in social interaction, providing substantive insights into the mechanisms of social interaction.     

Modeling networked systems using the topologically distributed bounded rationality framework

In networked systems research, game theory is increasingly used to model a number of scenarios where distributed decision making takes place in a competitive environment. These scenarios include peer‐to‐peer network formation and routing, computer security level allocation, and TCP congestion control. It has been shown, however, that such modeling has met with limited success in capturing the real‐world behavior of computing systems. One of the main reasons for this drawback is that, whereas classical game theory assumes perfect rationality of players, real world entities in such settings have limited information, and cognitive ability which hinders their decision making. Meanwhile, new bounded rationality models have been proposed in networked game theory which take into account the topology of the network. In this article, we demonstrate that game‐theoretic modeling of computing systems would be much more accurate if a topologically distributed bounded rationality model is used. In particular, we consider (a) link formation on peer‐to‐peer overlay networks (b) assigning security levels to computers in computer networks (c) routing in peer‐to‐peer overlay networks, and show that in each of these scenarios, the accuracy of the modeling improves very significantly when topological models of bounded rationality are applied in the modeling process. Our results indicate that it is possible to use game theory to model competitive scenarios in networked systems in a way that closely reflects real world behavior, topology, and dynamics of such systems. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 123–137, 2016     

Expectations,intentions, and behavior: Some tests of affect control theory

Subjects presented with scenarios in which they themselves are actors tend to believe that the predictions from affect control theory are the events that really would happen. A laboratory experiment demonstrates that the theory predicts subtle differences in observable behavior as subjects are confronted with different social circumstances.     

Cognitive modeling of socially transmitted affordances: a computational model of behavioral adoption tested against archival data from the Stanford Prison Experiment

Social learning and adoption of new affordances govern the rise of new a variety of behaviors, from actions as mundane as dance steps to those as dangerous as new ways to make improvised explosive device (IED) detonators. Traditional diffusion models and social network structures fail to adequately explain who would be likely to imitate new behavior and why some agents adopt the behavior while others do not. To address this gap, a cognitive model was designed that represents well-known socio-cognitive factors of attention, social influence, and motivation that influence learning and adoption of new behavior. This model was implemented in the Performance Moderator Function Server (PMFServ) agent-based cognitive architecture, enabling the creation of simulations where affordances spread memetically through cognitive mechanisms. This approach models facets of behavioral adoption that have not been explored by existing architectures: unintentional learning, multi-layered social and environmental attention cues, and contextual adoption. To examine the effectiveness of this model, its performance was tested against data from the Stanford Prison Experiment collected from the Archives of the History of American Psychology.     

Classical social processes: Attractor and computational models*

Attractor models provide a generalized way to represent processes found throughout science. A fuller articulation of the attractor framework requires that it be addressed qualitatively and conceptually as a nonlinear mathematical order residing between cyclical and random processes. Many significant nonlinear social processes have been identified and analyzed in classical social theory. These include the circulation of the elites (Pareto), cultural dynamics (Sorokin), social differentiation (Durkheim) and rationalization in modern institutions (Weber). The present discussion develops a qualitative consideration of such classical social processes as attractor systems, and discusses possible applications of such models in computational social science.     

A dynamic model for social networks†

A continuous‐time binary‐matrix‐valued Markov chain is used to model the process by which social structure effects individual behavior. The model is developed in the context of sociometric networks of interpersonal affect. By viewing the network as a time‐dependent stochastic process it is possible to construct transition intensity equations for the probability that choices between group members will change. These equations can contain parameters for structural effects. Empirical estimates of the parameters can be interpreted as measures of structural tendencies. Some elementary processes are described and the application of the model to cross‐sectional data is explained in terms of the steady state solution to the process.     

A deductive approach to friendship networks

Based on a simple actor model, I derive theory concerning satisfied networks of close, reciprocal friendships. By satisfied networks I mean networks of actors who would be unhappier with more or fewer close friends. Deductions concern characteristics of such networks, such as that a satisfied network component (connected subnetwork) containing an actor with only one friend must be a dyad. I show that the model of satisfied friendship networks fits eight empirical friendship networks significantly better than a random model. Finally, I show the theory's usefulness by making five additional predictions, including two involving intervention.     

A social-event based approach to sentiment analysis of identities and behaviors in text

We describe a new methodology to infer sentiments held toward identities and behaviors from social events that we extract from a large corpus of newspaper text. Our approach draws on affect control theory, a mathematical model of how sentiment is encoded in social events and culturally shared views toward identities and behaviors. While most sentiment analysis approaches evaluate concepts on a single, evaluative dimension, our work extracts a three-dimensional sentiment “profile” for each concept. We can also infer when multiple sentiment profiles for a concept are likely to exist. We provide a case study of a large newspaper corpus on the Arab Spring, which helps to validate our approach.     

Using abell's narrative method to build a theory: The case of the theory of distributive justice and its generalization to the theory of comparison processes

This paper examines the usefulness for theoretical work of the narrative method proposed by Peter Abell. Our assessment proceeds by using the narrative method to perform the two main tasks of theoretical analysis—constructing postulates and deriving predictions. Tb illustrate, we focus on the theory of distributive justice and the more general theory of comparison processes to which it led. The results of our assessment of the usefulness of Abell's narrative method for theoretical work indicate that the narrative method has far wider applicability than Abell has claimed for it. For example, (i) it is useful for all theoretical work in the sociobehavioral sciences, not only for theoretical work based on game theory, (ii) it is useful for analyzing thought‐experiments as well as narrative accounts of actual actions and events, and (iii) the events in the narrative need not be restricted to human actions but can include events not traceable to human agency. We conclude also that Abell's narrative method complements the use of mathematical analysis in theoretical work and that it may be especially valuable for theoretical derivation involving two or more theories jointly.     

O.R. and Public Expenditure Planning and Control

The problems of public expenditure planning and control to which O.R. can make a contribution are identified. Suggestions are made for research by those in O.R. both within government and in universities. Recent work in the Treasury on financial models and information systems are discussed in terms of how such work might be applied elsewhere and extended to include measures of achievement. The topics covered include planning for uncertainty and theory development by O.R. in models of inflation and social justice.     

A representation of the moment measures of the general ideal Boe gas

We reconsider the fundamental work of Fichtner 2 and exhibit the permanental structure of the ideal Bose gas again, using a new approach which combines a characterization of infinitely divisible random measures (due to Kerstan, Kummer and Matthes 4 , 6 and Mecke 9 , 10 ) with a decomposition of the moment measures into its factorial measures due to Krickeberg 5 . To be more precise, we exhibit the moment measures of all orders of the general ideal Bose gas in terms of certain “loop” integrals. This representation can be considered as a point process analogue of the old idea of Symanzik 15 that local times and self‐crossings of the Brownian motion can be used as a tool in quantum field theory. Behind the notion of a general ideal Bose gas there is a class of infinitely divisible point processes of all orders with a Lévy‐measure belonging to some large class of measures containing that of the classical ideal Bose gas considered by Fichtner. It is well‐known that the calculation of moments of higher order of point processes is notoriously complicated. See for instance Krickeberg’s calculations for the Poisson or the Cox process in 5 . Relations to the work of Shirai, Takahashi 12 and Soshnikov 14 on permanental and determinantal processes are outlined.