On the variational process in optimal control theory

The variational process is established and applied to the development of the second variation for the free-final-time optimal control problem. First, it is shown that, given a change in the control (the independent variable), the change in the state (the dependent variable) consists of all orders of the change in the control. Hence, the change in the state is a total change. This implies that variations of dependent variations exist. Next, the variational relationship between time-constant and time-free variations is developed, and the formula for taking the variation of an integral is presented. The results are used to derive the second variation following three different approaches: taking the variation of the first variation after performing the integration by parts; taking the variation of the first variation before performing the integration by parts; and using the Taylor series approach. The ability to get the same result requires the existence of the total change in the state or of the variation of the state variation. Finally, if the nominal path is not an extremal, this process gives extra terms in the second variation.     

Conditionally heteroscedastic factorial HMMs for time series in finance

In this article, we develop a new approach within the framework of asset pricing models that incorporates two key features of the latent volatility: co‐movement among conditionally heteroscedastic financial returns and switching between different unobservable regimes. By combining latent factor models with hidden Markov chain models we derive a dynamical local model for segmentation and prediction of multivariate conditionally heteroscedastic financial time series. We concentrate more precisely on situations where the factor variances are modelled by univariate generalized quadratic autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic processes. The expectation maximization algorithm that we have developed for the maximum likelihood estimation is based on a quasi‐optimal switching Kalman filter approach combined with a generalized pseudo‐Bayesian approximation, which yield inferences about the unobservable path of the common factors, their variances and the latent variable of the state process. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations and preliminary experiments obtained with daily foreign exchange rate returns of eight currencies show promising results. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A note on the conditional density estimate in the single functional index model

In this paper, we consider the estimation of the conditional density of a scalar response variable Y, given a Hilbertian random variable X when the observations are linked with a single-index structure. We establish the pointwise and the uniform almost complete convergence (with the rate) of the kernel estimate of this model. As an application, we show how our result can be applied in the prediction problem via the conditional mode estimate. Finally, the estimation of the functional index via the pseudo-maximum likelihood method is also discussed but not tackled.     

Multi-state Systems with Graduate Failure and Equal Transition Intensities

We consider unrecoverable homogeneous multi-state systems with graduate failures, where each component can work at M + 1 linearly ordered levels of performance. The underlying process of failure for each component is a homogeneous Markov process such that the level of performance of one component can change only for one level lower than the observed one, and the failures are independent for different components. We derive the probability distribution of the random vector X, representing the state of the system at the moment of failure and use it for testing the hypothesis of equal transition intensities. Under the assumption that these intensities are equal, we derive the method of moments estimators for probabilities of failure in a given state vector and the intensity of failure. At the end we calculate the reliability function for such systems. Received: May 18, 2007., Revised: July 8, 2008., Accepted: September 29, 2008.     

Modelling and forecasting vehicle stocks using the trends of stochastic Gompertz diffusion models: The case of Spain

In the present study, we treat the stochastic homogeneous Gompertz diffusion process (SHGDP) by the approach of the Kolmogorov equation. Firstly, using a transformation in diffusion processes, we show that the probability transition density function of this process has a lognormal time‐dependent distribution, from which the trend and conditional trend functions and the stationary distribution are obtained. Second, the maximum likelihood approach is adapted to the problem of parameters estimation in the drift and the diffusion coefficient using discrete sampling of the process, then the approximated asymptotic confidence intervals of the parameter are obtained. Later, we obtain the corresponding inference of the stochastic homogeneous lognormal diffusion process as limit from the inference of SHGDP when the deceleration factor tends to zero. A statistical methodology, based on the above results, is proposed for trend analysis. Such a methodology is applied to modelling and forecasting vehicle stocks. Finally, an application is given to illustrate the methodology presented using real data, concretely the total vehicle stocks in Spain. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Backlund Transformation and Exact Solution to Kadomtsev-Petviashvili Equation with Variable Coefficients

By using the homogeneous balance principle, we derive a Backlund transformation (BT) to (3+1)-dimensionaI Kadomtsev-Petviashvili (K-P) equation with variable coefficients if the variable coefficients are linearly dependent. Based on the BT, the exact solution of the (3+1)-dimensional K-P equation is given. By the same method, we derive a BT and the solution to (2+1)-dimensional K-P equation. The variable coefficients can change the amplitude of solitary wave, but cannot change the form of solitary wave.     

Baecklund Transformation and Exact Solution to Kadomtsev-Petviashvili Equation with Variable Coefficients

By using homogeneous balance principle,we derive a Baecklund trans-formation(BT) to (3 1)-dimensional Kadomtsev-Petviashvili( K-P) equation with variable coefficients if the variable coefficients are linearly dependent.Based on the BT,the exact solution of the (3 1)-dimensional K-P equation is given.By the same method,we derive a BT and the solution to (2 1)-dimensional K-P equation,The variable coefficients can change the amplitude of solitary wave,but cannot change the form of solitary wave.     

Multi‐asset barrier options and occupation time derivatives

A general framework is formulated to price various forms of European style multi‐asset barrier options and occupation time derivatives with one state variable having the barrier feature. Based on the lognormal assumption of asset price processes, the splitting direction technique is developed for deriving the joint density functions of multi‐variate terminal asset prices with provision for single or double barriers on one of the state variables. A systematic procedure is illustrated whereby multi‐asset option price formulas can be deduced in a systematic manner as extensions from those of their one‐asset counterparts. The formulation has been applied successfully to derive the analytic price formulas of multi‐asset options with external two‐sided barriers and sequential barriers, multi‐asset step options and delayed barrier options. The successful numerical implementation of these price formulas is demonstrated.     

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In this paper, we investigate a competing risks model based on exponentiated Weibull distribution under Type-I progressively hybrid censoring scheme. To estimate the unknown parameters and reliability function, the maximum likelihood estimators and asymptotic confidence intervals are derived. Since Bayesian posterior density functions cannot be given in closed forms, we adopt Markov chain Monte Carlo method to calculate approximate Bayes estimators and highest posterior density credible intervals. To illustrate the estimation methods, a simulation study is carried out with numerical results. It is concluded that the maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian estimation can be used for statistical inference in competing risks model under Type-I progressively hybrid censoring scheme.     

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??Hidden Markov model is widely used in statistical modeling of time, space and state transition data. The definition of hidden Markov multivariate normal distribution is given. The principle of using cluster analysis to determine the hidden state of observed variables is introduced. The maximum likelihood estimator of the unknown parameters in the model is derived. The simulated observation data set is used to test the estimation effect and stability of the method. The characteristic is simple classical statistical inference such as cluster analysis and maximum likelihood estimation. The method solves the parameter estimation problem of complex statistical models.     

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Hidden Markov Multivariate Normal Distribution Parameters

Hidden Markov model is widely used in statistical modeling of time, space and state transition data. The definition of hidden Markov multivariate normal distribution is given. The principle of using cluster analysis to determine the hidden state of observed variables is introduced. The maximum likelihood estimator of the unknown parameters in the model is derived. The simulated observation data set is used to test the estimation effect and stability of the method. The characteristic is simple classical statistical inference such as cluster analysis and maximum likelihood estimation. The method solves the parameter estimation problem of complex statistical models.     

A marginal contribution coefficient for sequences of nonstationary continuous Markov chains

In this work, a set of sequences of information (time series), under nonstationary regime, with continuous space state, discrete time, and a Markovian dependence, is considered. A new model that expresses the marginal transition density function of one sequence as a linear combination of the marginal transition density functions of all sequences in the set is proposed. The coefficients of this combination are denominated marginal contribution coefficients and represent how much each transition density function contributes to the calculation of a chosen transition density function. The proposed coefficient is a marginal coefficient because it can be computed instantaneously, and it may change from one time to another time since all calculations are performed before stationarity is reached. This clearly differentiates the new coefficient from well‐known measures such as the cross‐correlation and the coherence. The idea behind the model is that if a specific sequence has a high marginal contribution for the transition density function from another sequence, the first may be replaced by the latter without losing much information that means that the knowledge of few densities should be enough to recover the overall behaviour. Simulations, considering 2 chains, are presented so as to check the sensitivity of the proposed model. The methodology is also applied to a real data originated from a wire‐drawing machine whose main function is to decrease the transverse diameter of metal wires. The behaviour of the level of acceleration of each bearing in relation to the other ones is then verified.     

Computational Aspects of Bayesian Spectral Density Estimation

Gaussian time-series models are often specified through their spectral density. Such models present several computational challenges, in particular because of the nonsparse nature of the covariance matrix. We derive a fast approximation of the likelihood for such models. We propose to sample from the approximate posterior (i.e., the prior times the approximate likelihood), and then to recover the exact posterior through importance sampling. We show that the variance of the importance sampling weights vanishes as the sample size goes to infinity. We explain why the approximate posterior may typically be multimodal, and we derive a Sequential Monte Carlo sampler based on an annealing sequence to sample from that target distribution. Performance of the overall approach is evaluated on simulated and real datasets. In addition, for one real-world dataset, we provide some numerical evidence that a Bayesian approach to semiparametric estimation of spectral density may provide more reasonable results than its frequentist counterparts. The article comes with supplementary materials, available online, that contain an Appendix with a proof of our main Theorem, a Python package that implements the proposed procedure, and the Ethernet dataset.     

A dynamic model for social networks†

A continuous‐time binary‐matrix‐valued Markov chain is used to model the process by which social structure effects individual behavior. The model is developed in the context of sociometric networks of interpersonal affect. By viewing the network as a time‐dependent stochastic process it is possible to construct transition intensity equations for the probability that choices between group members will change. These equations can contain parameters for structural effects. Empirical estimates of the parameters can be interpreted as measures of structural tendencies. Some elementary processes are described and the application of the model to cross‐sectional data is explained in terms of the steady state solution to the process.     

A structural model of the higher‐order Markov process incorporating reversion effects

The paper presents a formal approach which may increase the realism and parsimony of higher‐order Markov models applied to certain human behaviors. Often in behavioral applications, any improvements in fit available from increasing the order of a Markov model would be more than offset by interpretive problems caused by the very rapid increase in the number of independent parameters. The model proposed here for the higher‐order process greatly reduces the number of independent parameters, replacing them with sociologically relevant effects of persistence in and reversion to previous conditions.

The general model is called the “reversion model.” In it, individuals are allowed to carry along some information about their pasts, for a number of periods corresponding to the order of the model. The parameters describing residence histories are constructed to give each individual an underlying set of first‐order transition probabilities, which are modified by experience of the various states of the system. When an individual occupies a particular state, his relative probability of future residence there (vis‐a‐vis the other states as a group) is permitted to change. But occupation of a particular state is not permitted to affect the relative chances of residence among the other states. With suitable constraints, the number of parameters of this higher‐order process no longer increases geometrically with the order, but only arithmetically.

Maximum likelihood estimation formulas are derived for the reversion model, which is then applied to longitudinal data on the work activities of U.S. Ph.D. physicists and chemists in 1960–1966, and is found to fit well using likelihood ratio tests.     

Robust state estimation for Markov jump genetic regulatory networks based on passivity theory

In this article, the robust state estimation problem for Markov jump genetic regulatory networks (GRNs) based on passivity theory is investigated. Moreover, the effect of time‐varying delays is taken into account. The focus is on designing a linear state estimator to estimate the concentrations of the mRNAs and the proteins of the GRNs, such that the dynamics of the state estimation error can be stochastically stable while achieving the prescribed passivity performance. By applying the Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional method, delay‐dependent criteria are established to ensure the existence of the mode‐dependent estimator in the form of linear matrix inequalities. Based on the obtained results, the parameters of the desired estimator gains can be further calculated. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 214–223, 2016     

Estimation locale linéaire de la densité conditionnelle pour des données fonctionnelles

In this Note, we introduce the local linear estimation of the conditional density of a scalar response variable given a random variable taking values in a semi-metric space. Under some general conditions, we establish the pointwise and uniform almost complete convergences with rates of this estimator. Moreover, as an application, we use the obtained results to derive some asymptotic properties for the local linear estimator of the conditional mode.     

Hazard Estimation With Bivariate Survival Data and Copula Density Estimation

Bivariate survival function can be expressed as the composition of marginal survival functions and a bivariate copula and, consequently, one may estimate bivariate hazard functions via marginal hazard estimation and copula density estimation. Leveraging on earlier developments on penalized likelihood density and hazard estimation, a nonparametric approach to bivariate hazard estimation is being explored in this article. The new ingredient here is the nonparametric estimation of copula density, a subject of interest by itself, and to accommodate survival data one needs to allow for censoring and truncation in the setting. A simple copularization process is implemented to convert density estimates into copula densities, and a cross-validation scheme is devised for density estimation under censoring and truncation. Empirical performances of the techniques are investigated through simulation studies, and potential applications are illustrated using real-data examples and open-source software.     

基于马尔科夫过程的储备系统稳态性能分析

由于储备系统组成部件在存储期间的失效概率各不相同,当部件状态趋于稳定时,各个状态对系统性能的影响也存在差异。为了识别关键部件及其状态对系统性能的影响程度,本文以重要度为主要指标,应用马尔科夫过程研究储备系统在稳态时的性能变化模式。首先基于综合重要度研究系统性能的变化规律,并结合冷储备系统和温储备系统的状态转移矩阵推导出马尔科夫过程中稳态值的计算方法;其次基于稳态综合重要度获得系统稳态时的性能变化模式;最后以双臂机器人为例,分析部件处于不同状态时对系统性能的影响模式,比较了不同部件综合重要度的变化,验证了提出方法的有效性。     

The converse of the Dominated Ergodic Theorem

The aim of the present paper is to derive a recursive formula of state estimation for a parabolic differential system with a “partially unknown input.” Here the word “partially” unknown input means that the input term of the system is a product of two functions: one is a known function of time variable and of spatial variable; the other is an unknown function of spatial variable. It is desired to perform the state estimation by identifying the latter function. The formula is derived applying the results of J. L. Lions for the decoupling of Riccati type.