The risk-averse newsvendor problem with random capacity

We study the effect of capacity uncertainty on the inventory decisions of a risk-averse newsvendor. We consider two well-known risk criteria, namely Value-at-Risk (VaR) included as a constraint and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). For the risk-neutral newsvendor, we find that the optimal order quantity is not affected by the capacity uncertainty. However, this result does not hold for the risk-averse newsvendor problem. Specifically, we find that capacity uncertainty decreases the order quantity under the CVaR criterion. Under the VaR constraint, capacity uncertainty leads to an order decrease for low confidence levels, but to an order increase for high confidence levels. This implies that the risk criterion should be carefully selected as it has an important effect on inventory decisions. This is shown for the newsvendor problem, but is also likely to hold for other inventory control problems that future research can address.     

A robust disaster preparedness model for effective and fair disaster response

Humanitarian network design decisions belonging to the preparedness stage of disaster management life-cycle are of critical importance since they set the frame for all further post-disaster operations. Having an adequate number of strategically located storage and distribution centers for critical supplies is the key that enables effectiveness, efficiency and fairness when responding to a disaster situation. The preparedness model proposed in this study selects locations and inventory levels of these facilities such that the right mix of relief items can be supplied at the right time. Our mixed integer linear model aims to find a robust relief network design that satisfies the demand for all given disaster scenarios, and to help achieve a better response during the response stage when the relief items are distributed. The assumptions and the parameters used in the model are justified by authorities of humanitarian organizations. We propose a logic-based Benders decomposition approach to solve this problem to optimality. Although the problem is NP-hard, our numerical studies demonstrate that it is possible to obtain optimal or very good solutions to problem instances with realistic sizes.     

MIN-MAD life: A multi-period optimization model for life insurance company investment decisions

This paper presents a model, called the MIN-MAD Life Model, for managing the investments of a life insurance company over a multiperiod planning horizon. The MIN-MAD Life Model is a linear programming under uncertainty model based on Markowitz portfolio theory. Given the insurance company's current position and its forecasts of possible future developments with their associated probabilities, the model helps determine the set of efficient investment decisions over the planning horizon subject to market constraints and to the insurance company's legal and policy constraints. The senior executives of the life insurance company need examine only the set of efficient investment decisions to determine their optimal investment decisions.     

Robust optimization for relief logistics planning under uncertainties in demand and transportation time

Emergency logistics is an essential component of post-disaster relief campaigns. However, there are always various uncertainties when making decisions related to planning and implementing post-disaster relief logistics. Considering the particular environmental conditions during post-disaster relief after a catastrophic earthquake in a mountainous area, this paper proposes a stochastic model for post-disaster relief logistics to guide the tactical design for mobilizing relief supply levels, planning initial helicopter deployments, and creating transportation plans within the disaster region, given the uncertainties in demand and transportation time. We then introduce a robust optimization approach to cope with these uncertainties and deduce the robust counterpart of the proposed stochastic model. A numerical example based on disaster logistics during the Great Sichuan Earthquake demonstrates that the model can help post-disaster managers to determine the initial deployments of emergency resources. Sensitivity analyses explore the trade-off between optimization and robustness by varying the robust optimization parameter values.     

Loss-averse newsvendor problem with supply risk

Modeling the manufacturer as a newsvendor, in this paper we study the ordering decisions of a loss-averse newsvendor with supply and demand uncertainties. Using the stylized newsvendor models, we analyse several key issues, including the effect of the newsvendor’s loss aversion, the effect of demand uncertainty, and the effect of supply uncertainty on the decision maker’s optimal decision under the procurement model, in which the decision maker only pays for the actual quantity received. Through our analysis, we find the following facts: the optimal order quantity decreases with respect to the degree of loss-aversion; the supply uncertainty induces the decision maker to order more than that in a deterministic environment; a stochastically larger demand always results in a larger order quantity and a larger expected utility; the optimal expected utility decreases in the demand volatility while the optimal order quantity may increase or decrease. Moreover, with numerical experiments, we demonstrate that the supply risk negatively affects the utility more than the demand risk does.     

Emergency Logistics Planning in Natural Disasters

Logistics planning in emergency situations involves dispatching commodities (e.g., medical materials and personnel, specialised rescue equipment and rescue teams, food, etc.) to distribution centres in affected areas as soon as possible so that relief operations are accelerated. In this study, a planning model that is to be integrated into a natural disaster logistics Decision Support System is developed. The model addresses the dynamic time-dependent transportation problem that needs to be solved repetitively at given time intervals during ongoing aid delivery. The model regenerates plans incorporating new requests for aid materials, new supplies and transportation means that become available during the current planning time horizon. The plan indicates the optimal mixed pick up and delivery schedules for vehicles within the considered planning time horizon as well as the optimal quantities and types of loads picked up and delivered on these routes. In emergency logistics context, supply is available in limited quantities at the current time period and on specified future dates. Commodity demand is known with certainty at the current date, but can be forecasted for future dates. Unlike commercial environments, vehicles do not have to return to depots, because the next time the plan is re-generated, a node receiving commodities may become a depot or a former depot may have no supplies at all. As a result, there are no closed loop tours, and vehicles wait at their last stop until they receive the next order from the logistics coordination centre. Hence, dispatch orders for vehicles consist of sets of “broken” routes that are generated in response to time-dependent supply/demand. The mathematical model describes a setting that is considerably different than the conventional vehicle routing problem. In fact, the problem is a hybrid that integrates the multi-commodity network flow problem and the vehicle routing problem. In this setting, vehicles are also treated as commodities. The model is readily decomposed into two multi-commodity network flow problems, the first one being linear (for conventional commodities) and the second integer (for vehicle flows). In the solution approach, these sub-models are coupled with relaxed arc capacity constraints using Lagrangean relaxation. The convergence of the proposed algorithm is tested on small test instances as well as on an earthquake scenario of realistic size.     

Prepositioning supplies in preparation for disasters

In this paper, we examine the decision of where to preposition supplies in preparation for a disaster, such as a hurricane or terrorist attack, and how much to preposition at a location. If supplies are located closer to the disaster, it can allow for faster delivery of supplies after the disaster. As a result of being closer, though, the supplies may be in a risky location if the disaster occurs. Considering these risks, we derive equations for determining the optimal stocking quantity and the total expected costs associated with delivering to a demand point from a supply point. We provide a sensitivity analysis to show how different parameters impact stocking levels and costs. We show how our cost model can be used to select the single best supply point location from a discrete set of choices and how it can be embedded within existing location algorithms to choose multiple supply points. Our computational experiments involve a variety of relationships between distance and risk and show how these can impact location decisions and stocking levels.     

Dispatch planning using newsvendor dual problems and occupation times: Application to hydropower

We consider price-driven dispatch planning under price uncertainty: A storable commodity is optimally sold and purchased over time. First, we consider models where the storage level is constrained in expectation. The dual of the corresponding optimization problem is related to the newsvendor problem. Exact solutions of bang-bang type are given. The second methodology is for high-frequency dispatch decisions in multistage stochastic programming models: To overcome the curse of dimensionality, prices are modeled by occupation times at price levels. In a case study, we consider a pumped-storage hydropower plant: Numerical solutions are given, which have similar patterns as for the first, exactly solvable problems.     

Integrating long-term care insurance purchase decisions with saving and investment for retirement

Risk related to long-term care (LTC) is high for the elderly. Planning for LTC is now regarded as the ‘third leg’ of retirement planning. In this paper, planning for LTC is integrated with saving and investment decisions for an integrated approach to retirement planning. Optimal LTC insurance purchase decisions are obtained by developing a trade-off between post-retirement LTC costs and LTC insurance premiums paid and coverage received. Integrating insurance purchase with wealth evolution, consisting of saving and investment decisions, allows addressing affordability issues.Two-way branching models are used for the stochastic health events and asset returns. The problem, formulated as a nonlinearly constrained mixed-integer optimization problem, is solved using a heuristic. Sensitivity analyses are performed for initial health and wealth status. Some important aspects of an individual’s behavioral preferences are also addressed in this framework to provide more robust decision support.     

Optimal inventory and insurance decisions for a supply chain financing system with downside risk control

This research considers a supply chain financing system consisting of a capital‐constrained retailer, a supplier and a risk‐averse bank. The retailer may be subject to credit limit because of the bank's downside risk control, and hence, credit insurance should be needed to enhance his financing ability. This paper develops a mathematical optimization model by incorporating insurance policy into the well‐known newsvendor financing model. The optimal inventory and insurance decisions under different scenarios, that is, no insurance, insurance with symmetric information and insurance with asymmetric information, are derived. This work also discusses how the retailer's capital level, the bank's risk aversion, and the insurer's loading factor affect the optimal inventory and insurance decisions. The results show that the retailer will use credit insurance if he is sufficiently capital‐constrained or the insurer's risk loading factor is low enough. Moreover, credit insurance can bring Pareto improvement to the supply chain financing system, which verifies the prevalence of credit insurance in practice. Several numerical experiments are presented to examine the sensitivities of key parameters. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Location-allocation planning of stockpiles for effective disaster mitigation

In the existing framework for receiving and allocating Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) assistance, there are three noticeable delays: the delay by the state in requesting federal assets, the delay in the federal process which releases assets only upon the declaration of a disaster and lastly the time it takes to reach supplies rapidly from the SNS stockpile to where it is needed. The most efficient disaster preparedness plan is one that addresses all three delays taking into account the unique nature of each disaster. In this paper, we propose appropriate changes to the existing framework to address the first two delays and a generic model to address the third which determines the locations and capacities of stockpile sites that are optimal for a specific disaster. Specifically, our model takes into account the impact of disaster specific casualty characteristics, such as the severity and type of medical condition and the unique nature of each type of disaster, particularly with regard to advance warning and factors affecting damage. For disasters involving uncertainty (magnitude/severity) with regard to future occurrences, such as an earthquake, development of appropriate solution strategies involves an additional step using scenario planning and robust optimization. We illustrate the application of our model via case studies for hurricanes and earthquakes and are able to outline an appropriate response framework for each.     

A tactical model for planning the production and distribution of fresh produce

We present an integrated tactical planning model for the production and distribution of fresh produce. The main objective of the model is to maximize the revenues of a producer that has some control over the logistics decisions associated with the distribution of the crop. The model is used for making planning decisions for a large fresh produce grower in Northwestern Mexico. The decisions obtained are based on traditional factors such as price estimation and resource availability, but also on factors that are usually neglected in traditional planning models such as price dynamics, product decay, transportation and inventory costs. The model considers the perishability of the crops in two different ways, as a loss function in its objective function, and as a constraint for the storage of products. The paper presents a mixed integer programming model used to implement the problem as wells as the computational results obtained from it.     

Multi-criteria logistics modeling for military humanitarian assistance and disaster relief aerial delivery operations

Given that it is not always feasible to reach an affected area via land or sea within the first week following a natural disaster, aerial delivery provides the primary means to rapidly supply the affected population. Further, it is often the case that high density delivery of humanitarian aid supplies are taken over by non-friendly groups within the affected population. By using direct airdrop systems to deliver large quantities of individually wrapped food and water items, dispersion among the affected disaster relief population will occur more quickly. In this paper, we proffer a multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to optimize the military humanitarian assistance/disaster relief (HA/DR) aerial delivery supply chain network. The model uses stochastic, mixed-integer, weighted goal programming to optimize network design, logistics costs, staging locations, procurement amounts, and inventory levels. The MCDA framework enables decision-makers to explore the trade-offs between military HA/DR aerial delivery supply chain efficiency and responsiveness, while optimizing across a wide range of real-world, probabilistic scenarios to account for the inherent uncertainty in the location of global humanitarian disasters as well as the amount of demand to be met.     

Integrating long-term care insurance purchase decisions with saving and investment for retirement

Risk related to long-term care (LTC) is high for the elderly. Planning for LTC is now regarded as the ‘third leg’ of retirement planning. In this paper, planning for LTC is integrated with saving and investment decisions for an integrated approach to retirement planning. Optimal LTC insurance purchase decisions are obtained by developing a trade-off between post-retirement LTC costs and LTC insurance premiums paid and coverage received. Integrating insurance purchase with wealth evolution, consisting of saving and investment decisions, allows addressing affordability issues.Two-way branching models are used for the stochastic health events and asset returns. The problem, formulated as a nonlinearly constrained mixed-integer optimization problem, is solved using a heuristic. Sensitivity analyses are performed for initial health and wealth status. Some important aspects of an individual’s behavioral preferences are also addressed in this framework to provide more robust decision support.     

A multi-criteria decision making approach for location planning for urban distribution centers under uncertainty

Location planning for urban distribution centers is vital in saving distribution costs and minimizing traffic congestion arising from goods movement in urban areas. In this paper, we present a multi-criteria decision making approach for location planning for urban distribution centers under uncertainty. The proposed approach involves identification of potential locations, selection of evaluation criteria, use of fuzzy theory to quantify criteria values under uncertainty and application of fuzzy TOPSIS to evaluate and select the best location for implementing an urban distribution center. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the influence of criteria weights on location planning decisions for urban distribution centers.The strength of the proposed work is the ability to deal with uncertainty arising due to a lack of real data in location planning for new urban distribution centers. The proposed approach can be practically applied by logistics operators in deciding on the location of new distribution centers considering the sustainable freight regulations proposed by municipal administrations. A numerical application is provided to illustrate the approach.     

Prescriptive analytics for human resource planning in the professional services industry

In this paper, we examine human resource planning decisions made at firms that sell contract-based consulting projects. High levels of uncertainty in deals and revenue forecasts make it challenging for consulting firms to hire the right people to staff their projects. We present a human resource planning model using concepts from robust optimization to allow companies to dynamically make hiring decisions that maximize profit while remaining as flexible as possible, and demonstrate potential profit improvements through simulation on real data.     

Newsvendor-type models with decision-dependent uncertainty

Models for decision-making under uncertainty use probability distributions to represent variables whose values are unknown when the decisions are to be made. Often the distributions are estimated with observed data. Sometimes these variables depend on the decisions but the dependence is ignored in the decision maker??s model, that is, the decision maker models these variables as having an exogenous probability distribution independent of the decisions, whereas the probability distribution of the variables actually depend on the decisions. It has been shown in the context of revenue management problems that such modeling error can lead to systematic deterioration of decisions as the decision maker attempts to refine the estimates with observed data. Many questions remain to be addressed. Motivated by the revenue management, newsvendor, and a number of other problems, we consider a setting in which the optimal decision for the decision maker??s model is given by a particular quantile of the estimated distribution, and the empirical distribution is used as estimator. We give conditions under which the estimation and control process converges, and show that although in the limit the decision maker??s model appears to be consistent with the observed data, the modeling error can cause the limit decisions to be arbitrarily bad.     

Using separable programming to solve the multi-product multiple ex-ante constraint newsvendor problem and extensions

This paper provides an approximating programming technique to solve the multi-product newsvendor model in which product demands are independent and stocking quantities are subject to two or more ex-ante linear contraints, such as budget or volume constraints. Previous research has attempted to solve this problem with Lagrange relaxation techniques or by limiting the distribution of demand. However, by taking advantage of the separable nature of the problem, a close approximation of the optimal solution can be found using convex separable programming for any demand distribution in the traditional newsvendor model and extensions. Sensitivity analysis of the linear program provides managerial insight into the effects of parameters of the problem on the optimal solution and future decisions.     

The newsvendor’s optimal incentive contracts for multiple advertisers

We consider a newsvendor who earns a revenue from the sales of her product to end users as well as from multiple advertisers paying to obtain access to those end users. We study the optimal decisions of a price-taking and a price-setting newsvendor when the advertisers have private information about their willingness to pay. We focus on the impact of the number of advertisers on the newsvendor’s optimal decisions. We find that regardless of the number of advertisers, the newsvendor may exclude advertisers with a low willingness to pay and distort the price and inventory from their system-efficient levels to screen the advertisers. Moreover, the newsvendor’s decision to exclude an advertiser is based exclusively on that advertiser’s characteristics, and the newsvendor’s optimal decision thus reveals independence among the advertisers. Nonetheless, the profits of the newsvendor and the advertisers also display network effects as both increase in the number of advertisers. Finally, our numerical results show that the newsvendor prefers an equivalent single advertiser to multiple advertisers due to the pooling effect.     

考虑突发事件状态转移的政府应急物资采购定价模型

突发事件发生后,应急物资需求量呈现爆发式增长,政府首先将常规物资调拨至受灾区,并根据阶段性救灾成果作出应急物资采购决策。突发事件状态总是不断发生转移,使得政府已采购的物资在状态好转时容易造成浪费,在状态持续恶化时又不足以满足突发需求,因此考虑突发事件状态转移情形的应急物资采购定价策略对提升政府应急物资保障能力尤为关键。为此,本研究引入数量柔性契约到政府与应急物资供应商组成的两级应急物资采购供应链,构建了基于突发事件状态转移的应急物资采购定价模型,推导得出政企达成合作的条件与双方最优决策策略,并对比分析了契约合作与分散非合作下的供应商利润与政府成本。进一步采用数值计算与敏感性分析验证该模型的有效性,讨论了若干外生变量对政企最优决策与双方成本收益的影响,提出重要的管理启示。研究表明,考虑突发事件状态转移的基于数量柔性契约的政府应急物资采购定价模型既可以有效提高应急物资储备水平,又能保障供应商的合理收益以及控制政府成本,实现了政企双赢。